OLine/QB Unforced Error All 22 Review - Wild Card - Dolphins

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Thanks for that screen shot/post.

 

Would be interesting to see how fast Chubb got off the edge, or if it was more him “drifting” and josh fell into him.

 

When I watched it live I thought Dawkins was beat as it seemed to happen fast, but will have to watch it again 

 

So you may have all this, but that was a play where the Bengals rushed 4 and left 7 in coverage.  They had a bunch formation on the R and Knox on the L.  There wasn't a hot read or a quick outlet pass unless that was supposed to be Knox. Josh dropped back and was bouncing a bit, almost standing still, waiting for something to develop downfield. 

 

Something strange about where Shakir was headed vs. where Knox was, can't tell you what's up there except I don't think that's what was designed.

 

Dawkins was beat and was holding, but Josh had maybe 2.5 seconds?   Not enough for the play.  Here's a shot just a bit earlier.  See what I mean?  Dawkins beat like drum.  Brown about to be beat.  At this point, pocket to step into prognosis does not look positve although Morse regrouped and Saffold came over to help Bates.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Bocephuz]

21 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

Question to the OP.

 

Brown was a mismatch.  That said of the 39 pass plays how many times did Brown get help?  If Brown got beat on 18% of the pass plays, It would be nice to know what percentage of the time he got help.  That would give some clue to the job the coaches are doing in regards to game plan and adjustments.  

 

80% of the pass plays the O-line won, does not sound too bad.  

 

 

Good question.. i don’t have a specific #. I recall once or twice either a TE or back chipped his guy. But he was pretty much on an island with Phillips all day. Dorsey has occasionally put RB or TE over to help but very rarely 

[Orlando Buffalo]

5 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

In my opinion .. Yes. Quessenberry should be brought back in at RT assuming he's healthy.

 

With Q in at RT.. they would likely suffer a bit in the run game as Brown is probably better run blocker. 

 

However.. it could not possibly be any worse than it is now in pass pro with Spencer in there. 

This write up is excellent - did the Bills start putting Knox on that end or help Brown much once it was apparent that Brown was outmatched? I did not realize how many of the problems were all his. 

[pennstate10]

5 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays

 

I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). 

 

Unforced error =  Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision 

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN =  O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block

 

____

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS

DAWKINS - 0

SAFFOLD - 1

MORSE - 0

BATES - 0

BROWN - 7

 

 

-DAWKINS - Dion was mostly solid. He had a few reps where his guy beat him on a speed rush to the outside.. but he recovered just enough to not make it a lost rep 

- SAFFOLD - Two weeks in a row of solid performance for Saffold. He had one false start.. but did not surrender any obvious pressures to my eye

- MORSE - Usual reliable self. Had one rep on Allen sack where Bates was pulling behind him on a fake run and Mitch didn't quite get over to fill Bates' gap and the blitzer got through. That being said.. i think it was just a bad play call by Dorsey... and bad timing on safety blitzing in that gap.. so not gonna penalize the center for that. 

-BATES - zero pressures surrendered.. and he played against Christian Wilkinson a lot. See above comment regarding the Allen snap. On live TV it totally looked like Bates' fault.. however.. watching all 22-- the play call clearly had him pulling out of that gap. 

- BROWN -  Absolute tire fire. If you saw Josh having to step up in the pocket.. or shift up and drift to his right out of the pocket.. it was because of Spencer Brown. #15 Phillips absolutely dominated him all day. On most reps.. Phillips just clean beat him to the outside on speed rush.. causing Allen to have to bail out of the pocket early several times. These edge rushes then set up several reps where Phillips faked outside.. got Brown to overshift.. and then he beat him inside for pressures. This was one of the worst ass whoopings I've seen an OT take. Granted Phillips is a stud.. but he had #79 on rollerskates most of the day.  

 

OL SUMMARY : Outside of RT Brown.. the o line had a very solid day in pass protect. The vaunted Miami inside DTs did not do much damage at all. Singletary was particularly solid in picking up a lot of the zero blitzes. The Line also seemed to communicate well against all the blitzing. 

 

QB UNFORCED ERRORS:  Josh had 6 unforced errors by my count.  Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially.  

  - UE 1: Q1 - #17 scrambles left, needlessly fakes a pitch and fumbles it out of bounds

-  UE2:  Q2 - INTERCEPTION - Deep attempt to Brown. Josh had time, should have thrown it away .. threw ball late/flat footed and off target to Brown. Romo was wrong about it being Smoke's fault

- UE3: Q3 - BAILS POCKET -  Josh had a clean pocket and could have hung in for another second.. but he stepped up and out of the pocket and underthrew Beasley on crosser over middle. 

- UE 4: q3 -INTERCEPTION - Clean pocket.. late throw to Beasley that gets tipped and picked. He should have thrown it away. 

- UE 5: Q4 - Clean pocket - overthrow in flat to Shakir

- UE 6 : q4 - Clean pocket - slant to Davis is low and behind. 

 

 

SUMMARY  -  4/5 of the O Line performed fantastically against the Fish. Allen had many instances where he climbed the pocket instead of bailing.. and for the most part he handled the pressure well. I think he's so used to Spencer Brown getting beat to the outside he naturally steps up and to the right. Last week Allen and Co. had trouble wiht the Patriots delayed cb, lb and s blitzes.  For the most part the Dolphins weren't that subtle. They crowded the line and sent everyone all at once most of the time. Singletary was amazing at pass pro this week.. much better than last week against Pats. Josh' 6 unforced errors were much higher than his usual 2 or 3. Some of that may be due to Miami DL getting their hands up into passing lanes. The Dolphins DBs had pretty tight coverage on some plays.. and on a few of those plays Bad Josh came out when he threw late to Beasley and Brown when he should have just thrown it away. The good news is that Allen did actually throw a couple away when noone was open.. so he has the aptitude to do that when nothing is there. 

 

Dawkins - 0 times beaten.. ( fyi)

 

Nice review.

 

A couple of points.

 

1)  On the blitz/sack in 1st half, it was obvious Bates was pulling, and safety/LB blitzed directly into the hole he vacated.  It seemed like a curious play.  Why was Bates pulling when Josh was dropping back?  If its simply misdirection/fake, seems like a bad gamble that no one will blitz through that hole.  Who was responsible to recognize that blitz?  Bate?  Morse?  Allen?  I'm thinking maybe Bills should discard that play.

 

2)  On the long ball INT, I think Brown made a poor effort to come back to the ball.  If that was Diggs, wouldnt have been an INT.  Maybe there's a reason Brown was available.

 

3)  On the Beasley INT, no way that was Allen's fault.  An NFL receiver either holds on to the ball or comes back to it so that defender cant knock it loose.  Again, there's probably a reason no team had picked up Beasley.

 

I understand Bills coming back to Beasley and Brown.  They know the org, the system, the QB.  But these guys arent quality NFL receivers any more.  Its risky throwing to them.  I'd rather see more Shakir/Crowder, even McK

[ArtVandalay]

5 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays

 

I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). 

 

Unforced error =  Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision 

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN =  O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block

 

____

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS

DAWKINS - 0

SAFFOLD - 1

MORSE - 0

BATES - 0

BROWN - 7

 

 

-DAWKINS - Dion was mostly solid. He had a few reps where his guy beat him on a speed rush to the outside.. but he recovered just enough to not make it a lost rep 

- SAFFOLD - Two weeks in a row of solid performance for Saffold. He had one false start.. but did not surrender any obvious pressures to my eye

- MORSE - Usual reliable self. Had one rep on Allen sack where Bates was pulling behind him on a fake run and Mitch didn't quite get over to fill Bates' gap and the blitzer got through. That being said.. i think it was just a bad play call by Dorsey... and bad timing on safety blitzing in that gap.. so not gonna penalize the center for that. 

-BATES - zero pressures surrendered.. and he played against Christian Wilkinson a lot. See above comment regarding the Allen snap. On live TV it totally looked like Bates' fault.. however.. watching all 22-- the play call clearly had him pulling out of that gap. 

- BROWN -  Absolute tire fire. If you saw Josh having to step up in the pocket.. or shift up and drift to his right out of the pocket.. it was because of Spencer Brown. #15 Phillips absolutely dominated him all day. On most reps.. Phillips just clean beat him to the outside on speed rush.. causing Allen to have to bail out of the pocket early several times. These edge rushes then set up several reps where Phillips faked outside.. got Brown to overshift.. and then he beat him inside for pressures. This was one of the worst ass whoopings I've seen an OT take. Granted Phillips is a stud.. but he had #79 on rollerskates most of the day.  

 

OL SUMMARY : Outside of RT Brown.. the o line had a very solid day in pass protect. The vaunted Miami inside DTs did not do much damage at all. Singletary was particularly solid in picking up a lot of the zero blitzes. The Line also seemed to communicate well against all the blitzing. 

 

QB UNFORCED ERRORS:  Josh had 6 unforced errors by my count.  Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially.  

  - UE 1: Q1 - #17 scrambles left, needlessly fakes a pitch and fumbles it out of bounds

-  UE2:  Q2 - INTERCEPTION - Deep attempt to Brown. Josh had time, should have thrown it away .. threw ball late/flat footed and off target to Brown. Romo was wrong about it being Smoke's fault

- UE3: Q3 - BAILS POCKET -  Josh had a clean pocket and could have hung in for another second.. but he stepped up and out of the pocket and underthrew Beasley on crosser over middle. 

- UE 4: q3 -INTERCEPTION - Clean pocket.. late throw to Beasley that gets tipped and picked. He should have thrown it away. 

- UE 5: Q4 - Clean pocket - overthrow in flat to Shakir

- UE 6 : q4 - Clean pocket - slant to Davis is low and behind. 

 

 

SUMMARY  -  4/5 of the O Line performed fantastically against the Fish. Allen had many instances where he climbed the pocket instead of bailing.. and for the most part he handled the pressure well. I think he's so used to Spencer Brown getting beat to the outside he naturally steps up and to the right. Last week Allen and Co. had trouble wiht the Patriots delayed cb, lb and s blitzes.  For the most part the Dolphins weren't that subtle. They crowded the line and sent everyone all at once most of the time. Singletary was amazing at pass pro this week.. much better than last week against Pats. Josh' 6 unforced errors were much higher than his usual 2 or 3. Some of that may be due to Miami DL getting their hands up into passing lanes. The Dolphins DBs had pretty tight coverage on some plays.. and on a few of those plays Bad Josh came out when he threw late to Beasley and Brown when he should have just thrown it away. The good news is that Allen did actually throw a couple away when noone was open.. so he has the aptitude to do that when nothing is there. 

 

Dawkins - 0 times beaten.. ( fyi)

Completely disagree those 2 INTs are on Josh.  Brown stopped running and made zero effort to catch the ball. Josh has the arm strength to pump and throw "flat footed" especially since he worked on his mechanics to be more of a rotational throw, he can let it rip without striding. 

 

The throw to Beasely went through his hands and off his chest. Beasely had played minimal football this year, is 33, and it shows. 

 

Both of these throws were after Josh worked through his progressions so obviously it's not going to have the timing of a ball that's delivered first read off the snap as part of the play design. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh is hardheaded, for sure. His past coaches have said as much. It’s just something we’ll have to live with as fans. I know McD criticized Josh on that John Brown pass and Josh also took ownership of it, but looking back at the overhead view of the play, the throw was absolutely there to be made. It was just a bad ball. A terrible one actually, thrown against the direction where Brown was headed. One could say the QB and the WR weren’t on the same page, but Brown had nothing but green grass to his left and only X back there, not really in position to stop anything. If Allen threw it more towards the middle of the field and not a floater that drifted towards the sideline, it could’ve been an easy uncontested TD.

Josh should’ve read that blitz and looked for his hot man (Singletary). Didn’t even see the defender coming until late and then tried to fight his way out of it. 

I wonder why it has just exploded like this the past two games with the deep ball?

 

It’s not like all season we have been crushing Allen for going deep constantly.

 

Most games I don’t remember 50+ yard throws and deep bombs.

 

So the media is all stirred up again about “calculated” this and “aggressive” that.

 

But the picks this year have been on shorter throws for the most part. 

[Brand J]

44 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I wonder why it has just exploded like this the past two games with the deep ball?

 

It’s not like all season we have been crushing Allen for going deep constantly.

 

Most games I don’t remember 50+ yard throws and deep bombs.

 

So the media is all stirred up again about “calculated” this and “aggressive” that.

 

But the picks this year have been on shorter throws for the most part. 

Good question, because up until the Patriots game I remember the broadcast saying we hadn’t hit on a long ball in something like 6 games. We hit a couple on the Patriots and against the Dolphins that’s all we were trying to do. I know, I know, cover 0 and all that, but the answer to all out blitzes isn’t the long ball. It’s screens, slants, hitting the RB in the flat, other quick hitters. With the Bills up 17-0, it felt like they wanted to put on a show. Maybe a (false) message to the Bengals…?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, JayBaller10 said:

Good question, because up until the Patriots game I remember the broadcast saying we hadn’t hit on a long ball in something like 6 games. We hit a couple on the Patriots and against the Dolphins that’s all we were trying to do. I know, I know, cover 0 and all that, but the answer to all out blitzes isn’t the long ball. It’s screens, slants, hitting the RB in the flat, other quick hitters. With the Bills up 17-0, it felt like they wanted to put on a show. Maybe a (false) message to the Bengals…?

Yeah these last two games are the outlier for me.

 

I just don’t remember a ton of these 50-60 yard passes until these past two games.

 

I mean, does Josh Allen attempt for then 20 of these passes a year? I don’t remember the deep ball as a huge component of this offense. 

 

Gabe had two long ones, and occasionally Diggs had a 40-yarder like the Jets first game.

 

But it’s not like the Bills have a fleet of WRs capable of executing those passes. 
 

The Patriots pressed the Bills, competed hard, and I feel like that drove Allen to push the ball down the field so much. 
 

Do I have amnesia? Like early Mahomes to Hill felt like uncorking bombs almost every game and that tailed off to some degree.

 

But is there a QB in the league that just uncorks these throws all the time? 
 

40 yarders I can see, Rodgers does this, but not as many 55-60 air yard passes. 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, CSBill said:

Thanks @Bocephuz  Good stuff.

 

It leaves me with this one question: Is it time to bring Quessenbery back to RT?

 

 

No, both Brown and Q are terrible. Have we forgotten how Josh injured his elbow.  This organization better draft the best RT available.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

2)  On the long ball INT, I think Brown made a poor effort to come back to the ball.  If that was Diggs, wouldnt have been an INT.  Maybe there's a reason Brown was available.

 

That's such a strange play.  Different analysts seem to have different ideas about what route Brown was running and where Josh should have put the ball for better success.

 

3 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

3)  On the Beasley INT, no way that was Allen's fault.  An NFL receiver either holds on to the ball or comes back to it so that defender cant knock it loose.  Again, there's probably a reason no team had picked up Beasley.

 

I can't quite agree there. Beasley was being held.  I posted a clip where you can see the DB's arm around the R side of Beasley's body and it's likely to be around the L side too, which is how he got a hand in there to deflect the ball.  Now, you can say (and actually, I've said) that Beasley needed to work to come back to the ball to make the hold penalty clearer and maybe get the call.  I don't know if his arm was being held down, although again - if it was, a receiver needs to fight to get his arm loose and either make the catch, or get the call.

 

On the other hand, there were 3 defenders in the area "playing to the sticks" and also because Brown was in the same area (not sure whether that's a strange design or a route running mistake).  On the opposite side of the field, Diggs was about 3 yds past the LOS and wide open.

 

Seems to me that a throw to Diggs would have been the better decision - throw quickly while Diggs is open, and he was so open that he could have at least made it 3rd and short. Don't throw into that much traffic.

 

But you have a point, that Josh made the throw because he trusts Beasley to either make the contested catch or break it up, and maybe that trust shouldn't be there.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

Completely disagree those 2 INTs are on Josh.  Brown stopped running and made zero effort to catch the ball. Josh has the arm strength to pump and throw "flat footed" especially since he worked on his mechanics to be more of a rotational throw, he can let it rip without striding. 

 

The throw to Beasely went through his hands and off his chest. Beasely had played minimal football this year, is 33, and it shows. 

 

Both of these throws were after Josh worked through his progressions so obviously it's not going to have the timing of a ball that's delivered first read off the snap as part of the play design. 

 

 

A lot of you seem not to have seen this, but the Beasley inteception didn't make it to him. The defender deflected it away. It was just good defense and a ball that unluckily angled right into a defender's hands.

 

Cover 1 and the other serious film watchers are generally putting the blame on Josh on the long INT aimed at Brown, or at best that they share blame. Most seem to say that after looking at the film it's clear Romo was wrong about Brown being at fault, Cover1 particularly. Buscaglia says they "interpreted the space differently."

 

 

9 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I wonder why it has just exploded like this the past two games with the deep ball?

 

It’s not like all season we have been crushing Allen for going deep constantly.

 

Most games I don’t remember 50+ yard throws and deep bombs.

 

So the media is all stirred up again about “calculated” this and “aggressive” that.

 

But the picks this year have been on shorter throws for the most part. 

  

 

Game planning and taking what the D was giving.

 

With the Fins particularly, they were bringing the safeties up and blitzing, hoping the blitz would have Allen get balls out early to short routes which they would have well-covered. They were willing to give Allen shots at low-percentage long balls. And the Bills were pretty much expecting exactly that.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[DrPJax]

15 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I Don't Think So

 

That said....

I had the impression McDermott is nonplussed and a bit at his wit's end with some of Josh's decision making the last couple weeks, and that if he had hair left, he'd be pulling it out.  He said there's a balance there, you prepare, you put the work in, and there's calculated risk, calculated being the operative, the key word.  He was asked if he felt the Bills had dodged a bullet there with the turnovers, and he said "Yeah.  I mean, that's not the way you want to live your life, if you want to win games.  That's proven, in the NFL.  I trust our players, though, that they're going to take great ownership of it, and get it corrected." 

 

Later, he said "it's something that's been addressed, directly, indirectly and will continue to be addressed, one way or the other, as we continue down the road here."

 

Not quite sure what "one way or the other" could mean, LOL.

 

On the other hand, going back up to @Bocephuz OP, on his Tuesday appearance on Kyle Brandt's Basement, Josh said that he felt he only made one really bad decision in the Dolphins game, and that was the deep throw to Brown. 

 

I don't know if I agree with that; I think on 2nd down, a decision to throw to a tightly covered Beasley with 2 other defenders in the vicinity, vs Diggs short of the chains but very wide open, really ought to be considered.

     I saw Josh on that show and it seems he is not being as accountable this year as in the past.  He is not stopping the unnecessary fumbles , carrying the ball recklessly as he scrambles and even in the pocket.  The red zone ints speak for themselves and while he keeps repeating “ I can’t do that “ , or “ I wish I had that one back” , the same turnover issues are ongoing. Seems like an issue where he is not afraid of accountability like he was in the past under Daboll and I think Dorsey enables him.
 Listening to Dorsey never really gives me any glimmer he is actually pushing Josh as his coach  , but seems more like a colleague or peer.  Josh is still young , and I think this year he is just not adjusting after less than great performances as long as they are winning.  I say this as I am watching Daboll convert Daniel jones into a qb who is performing well in the system and not turning the ball over like he did before.  
 

      There are options available to Josh to avoid all the ints , he is just not taking them and several content providers have shown that. The fumbles had been addressed before but have returned and you can bet Cincy will be having guys swiping at Josh if he keeps carrying the ball like Shady.  Maybe it will take them losing and getting sent home before he decides to accept this could cost them a chance at the title. By asking him to have Better ball security, think about situations a little more , you are not ruining his talent but giving him a chance to win it all.

Mcd and dorsey need to be forceful in not accepting this as ok; they have won and overcome the turnovers so far but it’s playing with fire.  I mean Mcd is stating as much.   Josh also had more than one bad throw, heck even tasker pointed out he is missing easy slants if he has to come off his first read as he is not moving his feet to reset and just flips it using his arm.  He is missing placement which adds to drops.  Fina agreed on his show / podcast.

Dorsey needs to quit being a peer and be a coach as statistically teams losing the turnover battle don’t usually keep winning. I just don’t understand how a guy keeps repeating “ I can’t do that” , but then doesn’t change. Feels a bit arrogant and insincere which seems the antithesis of Josh , yet that’s reality.  The numbers of ints / fumbles are not fictitious.  Zero turnovers and that Miami game is never close. Losing the turnover battle cost the Bills their SB blowout losses; they won’t even get there if they don’t clean this up. 
 

addendum ; watch Ross  Tucker with Mike Catalana on Buffalo plus YouTube podcast about the issue with Josh fumbling “ he just doesn't seen to get it “,   “ I’ve been in meetings where it’s talked about how loose a guy is with the ball “.   It’s coming from a pro about the issue of Josh resistance to deal with the high levels of turnovers.  This is a real thing , regardless of pff grade etc.  Hopefully our star qb doesn’t have to lose to learn or just change being loose with the ball.  It’s a good listen from an insider. Also listen to his analysis if the o line compared to others that are still playing.  Just an fyi. 

Edited January 19, 2023 by DrPJax