Very good write-up on Josh Allen and the Bills this postseason

[BuffaloMatt]

I still think Dorsey has kept a few plays in his pocket for the Bungholes. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

I still think Dorsey has kept a few plays in his pocket for the Bungholes. 

I hope so, but I haven’t seen it. Seems like Daboll was more of the mad scientist type with that stuff and had things waiting in the laboratory. 

[BuffaloMatt]

15 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I hope so, but I haven’t seen it. Seems like Daboll was more of the mad scientist type with that stuff and had things waiting in the laboratory. 

If that's the case then I am extremely disappointed. I was the OC on a youth football team and disguising plays on the simplest level was a winning formula.  SF and KC are great at making you see something on film and running a completely different play out of that formation. I am hopeful that we see Dorsey's creativity this weekend. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Another stat from this year which I found interesting the Bills are bottom 5 in YAC Yards. Which means if Josh does dump it off they don’t go far. 

Wonder if that’s by design or just cause other than Diggs we don’t have anybody scary with the ball in their hands after the catch. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

Always could have been more efficient, smarter, check down more. For 2 decades we couldn’t get out of our own way. Finally we are winning divisions, achieving the home field thru the playoffs, beating the best teams in the conference and our record setting QB must “take the next step in smart QB play “. Only 8 WINS in a row. This is why most QBs don’t own turnovers. It’s always “we have to play better “, not Josh. On two picks, both should have been either caught (Beasley) or knocked down (Smoke), Josh took full responsibility. That left short fields and Miami took advantage. How many “smart” QBs throw for 3 TDs and 354 yds, scoring 34. We’re playing the divisional rd at home, favored by 5 against the hottest team in football. Why would Vegas think a team with a QB that” needs to take the next step in smart QB play “ could win against the Bengals?

 

I love Josh. I'm thankful for him and his play.

 

Your points on this game are well taken.

 

That said....

 

There is room for improvement. That's not hating on the guy. He's so special that this kinda feast or famine approach is working. That said, occasional bombs with occasional running would be more effective with a good check-down / short game. Harder on defenses.

 

I bet Josh thinks he can improve. If so, I agree with him.

 

He has the ability to be perhaps the greatest of all time (though I don't know that he could catch Brady in the SB's) but he has more tools than anyone I've ever seen. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by NORWOODS FOOT

[JESSEFEFFER]

18 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Agreed.  I was thinking of an analogy to baseball earlier today.  Modern analytics have shown that teams actually score quite a few more runs by embracing a higher variance strategy of hitting more home runs and striking out more, which is counterintuitive to the classic strategy of having a couple power hitters and filling out the rest of your lineup with guys who will hit singles, bunt, steal bases, hit and run, etc.  Old hats still consider the latter to be the "right" way to play the game but statistics show it doesn't actually work.  

 

Of course, even within that paradigm, there come plenty of game situations where it's best not to swing for the fences.  Runner on 2nd and nobody out in a tie game?  Yeah, move him over to 3rd.  Just like Josh probably shouldn't have thrown those two bombs down the sideline when we wanted to chew clock midway through the 4th quarter.

 

I agree, I am reluctant to make sweeping conclusions based on one series in the 4th quarter with a small lead.  I was hoping for a sustained drive that chewed clock in that situation.  Our guy went for kill shots.  How many times do we see a team run, run again, throw short of the sticks and punt?  The throw to Brown was put in a bad spot (misread leverage?) and Brown had difficulty tracking it over his right shoulder then his left.  Beasley looked like he was wrapped up before the ball got there and could not raise his arms to make the catch.  That's how they looked from section 228 anyhow.

 

Josh talks about McD preaching situational football to him and this is a classic instance where I bet that they had a conversation about it.

[Eastport bills]

8 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

 

I love Josh. I'm thankful for him and his play.

 

Your points on this game are well taken.

 

That said....

 

There is room for improvement. That's not hating on the guy. He's so special that this kinda feast or famine approach is working. That said, occasional bombs with occasional running would be more effective with a good check-down / short game. Harder on defenses.

 

I bet Josh thinks he can improve. If so, I agree with him.

 

He has the ability to be perhaps the greatest of all time (though I don't know that he could catch Brady in the SB's) but he has more tools than anyone I've ever seen. 

Maybe I’m a little defensive because all of a sudden I hear shock jocks on sports media calling the guy a turnover machine. You make good reasonable points but remember part of Josh’s greatness is when he smells blood he gets more aggressive not safely, painstakingly,plodding down the field on 12 play drives.Now,especially with Davis becoming “Big Game Gabe” he will be looking for chunk plays. Having said that, he must  be more focused on ball security in the pocket and when he’s flushed. Those giveaways can’t happen against our next opponents.

[NORWOODS FOOT]

3 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

Maybe I’m a little defensive because all of a sudden I hear shock jocks on sports media calling the guy a turnover machine. You make good reasonable points but remember part of Josh’s greatness is when he smells blood he gets more aggressive not safely, painstakingly,plodding down the field on 12 play drives.Now,especially with Davis becoming “Big Game Gabe” he will be looking for chunk plays. Having said that, he must  be more focused on ball security in the pocket and when he’s flushed. Those giveaways can’t happen against our next opponents.

 

That makes sense. I don't watch TV (except for Bills games) and don't listen to the radio or read many sports columns. 

 

If people are trashing Josh I think it's either misinformed lazy types or people looking for viewers or clicks.

 

Josh is incredible. He had a great game against the Dolphins and was let down by his supporting cast. I mean they did enough, but if the receivers caught the ball, yes, the game wouldn't have been close.

 

Josh is great. The scary part is he really does have room for improvement. I love him to death.

[PrimeTime101]

Maybe there is some brilliance in this game plan. All year long we wanted more air JA. Meanwhile throughout the year teams have been sneaking in on us more. Could this be the tape McD and Dorsey wanted to prove if you blitz us, we will beat you? And if that is what we were out to set to accomplish, isn't doing it against Miami the right team to do it against?

 

Maybe against the Bengals we do a lot more dink, dunk, screens, slants, checkdowns because they will be expecting us to play the deep game. And if they do, do this against the Bengals, I mean ... how stupid would we look? lol

[BobbyC81]

On 1/16/2023 at 4:01 PM, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

This may seem trite but the transcendent athletes in every sport all break the mold.  Josh's best game comes with about twice as many mistakes as the average QB and about 5 times as many highlight reel plays.  Can he improve on his decision making?  Yes.  But only to a point because the risk taking is in his DNA somewhere.  Let Josh be Josh.  

Yep, Steph Curry is another example.  He’ll make some of the most head-scratching turnovers, then nail a 30 foot dagger to close out the game.

[stevewin]

Quote

The margin for error narrows as the Bills move through the playoffs. If teams continue to blitz Allen around 40% of the time like the Dolphins did on Sunday, Allen needs to lean more on Cole Beasley, Shakir, and running backs underneath, and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey should build more quick-game outlets into the offensive framework. 

This is the part Dorsey and Allem hopefully are focusing on this week - go ahead and have aggressive routes but make sure Josh also has a viable option to check down quick if needed (and have the mindset to use as necessary)  

[BigAl2526]

On 1/16/2023 at 8:20 PM, Limeaid said:

 

We are also missing him receiving a pass and stick arming through a defense player for a TD,

 

I wonder if Josh can punt.  Bills appear to be going for it on 4th and 16 and he backs up and punts it when no one on defense is expecting it and Brown runs down field and downs it in end zone.

I think in that case it is a touchback and goes to the other team.  It can only be a touchdown if a player from the other team touches the ball before it is downed in the end zone.

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

I hope so, but I haven’t seen it. Seems like Daboll was more of the mad scientist type with that stuff and had things waiting in the laboratory. 

 

Dunno.  Think it's true we do less trickery dickery

 

We had that Knox under center play vs. the Jets in December, that saw CJ Mosely doing his "I believe I can fly!" routine

[Beck Water]

49 minutes ago, stevewin said:

This is the part Dorsey and Allem hopefully are focusing on this week - go ahead and have aggressive routes but make sure Josh also has a viable option to check down quick if needed (and have the mindset to use as necessary)  

 

Josh has not lacked viable options to check down

On the Beasley INT: He had Diggs open on the opposite side of the field, only about 3-4 yds beyond the LOS but with enough room to gain at least 5-6 yds and quite likely more (being Diggs) if Josh had thrown it promptly.  (I put up a screen shot of this elsewhere).  It was 2nd and 10.

 

On the John Brown deep shot on 1st and 10, Josh had Morris over the middle wide open.  The passing lane may be tricky, though I think Morris comes into one in a few steps.  But Josh has made up his mind.

 

There's another receiver going out as well (you can see his feet) not sure who that is or whether he was open.
 

 

Edit: here's a 2nd clip as the play is developing, you can see Singletary has slipped out to serve as a checkdown option and Morris is moving into a passing lane.

 

Edit 2: and here's an all-22-ish view of the play.  It was actually a fairly cool play design making use of the diverse skill sets on the Bills receivers.  The Bills showed a max-protect/heavy look with 22 personnel (John Brown as the only receiver, Gilliam, Morris, and Knox).  Then they sent Gilliam and Knox out on 'intermediate' routes while Brown scooted deep, and Morris ran the shallow crosser as a checkdown option.  You can't quite see it yet but Singletary leaks out as a checkdown option as well.

 

The bottom line is Josh had all kinds of options.

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Beck Water