Is it just me or do we always let offenses convert 3rd downs on us?

[ngbills]

Just now, Goin Breakdown said:

Nope. Some guys have priorities to kids and wives who don't like football. So when the game is done they hang with them and do stuff they like to. It's called compromise. 

This is shocking...I have never heard of such a thing. This is exactly why I dont allow my wife and kids out of the house. Dont want them to get any silly ideas that there is a world out there outside of football and serving me. 

[Goin Breakdown]

3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This is shocking...I have never heard of such a thing. This is exactly why I dont allow my wife and kids out of the house. Dont want them to get any silly ideas that there is a world out there outside of football and serving me. 

What's shocking is that this convo just took a weird turn. 

[folz]

24 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Third down in general, our defense is 6th in the league.
 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

 

And they are 5th best in the league at total first downs allowed this season. Obviously, not all first downs are converted on third down...but just another stat to show that the defense has been better than some fans perceive.

 

The Bills D is 1st overall in total yards against, 2nd overall in points allowed, tied for 3rd overall in yards per play allowed, tied for 3rd overall in turnovers created, 2nd overall in opponent red zone conversion %, 5th in total first downs allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversions allowed, tied for 9th in sacks (though 13 teams have more sacks than we do, 4 teams with the same # as we have)...maybe a more honest stat is pressure percentage, where the Bills rank 14th.

 

The league scoring average for 2022 was 22 points per game. So, basically half the league scores 22 points or more per game. The Bills defense allowed 17.875 points per game. Only 5 offenses in the league averaged fewer than 18 points per game. Nine of our games were against teams that averaged at least 21.2 points per game this year, yet the Bills only allowed 5 teams to score more than 21 points and didn't allow anyone to score more than 26 (Minn had a defensive TD). The Bills defense held 12 of 16 teams below their own team's 2022 scoring average.

 

So, the Bills defense is middle of the pack in QB pressures/sacks (the Miller, Hyde, White injuries play a big part in that of course), but by pretty much every other metric, the Bills are at least a top 5 defense (if not top 2 or 3). 

 

Of course it's frustrating when they give up a third and long play, but overall, they are still giving up fewer yards, first downs, and points than almost any other team in the league, so those plays have to be put in perspective. Eleven of the 2022 playoff defenses have a worse 3rd down conversions allowed percentage than the Bills (only Balt and the NY Giants were better).

 

One thing I would look at though, if I were a defensive coach, are those boundary screens. We've given up a few 3rd and longs on those plays this year.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

So... Bills opponents... should actually try losing yardage on 1st and 2nd down?

 

😊

 

 

 

Can't argue with success!

[Jerome007]

3 hours ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

Just imagine how all the other teams feel when the Bills convert as many 3rd downs as they do

I don't like to taste it as they do ha ha. And no, the Bills are not that bad at all at this, but there's been a few 3rd/4th and very long converted this year by opponents... and it sucks. Lately, opponents have had more balls and they try to convert, instead of the usual cheap draw plays and checkdowns. Hyde indeed helped to curb this.

 

Bills sure do it a lot to other teams. With Josh's canon arm, the Bills convert a lot as they go for a lot. From day 1 with JA17, 3rd & 6 or 3rd & 15 has been the same.

[Buckets]

4 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

I tell my wife the same thing "3rd and long, they'll make it" the Bills just seem to have a problem with it.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

 

 

We're 6th in the league.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

 

Fans remember really good and really bad plays, but we tend to file successful 3rd down stops as "of course" and not remember them, whereas failures get filed under "I can't believe it," and are easily remembered.

 

We could always get better, though.

[Turbo44]

8 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

it's you, I can live with 4/16

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Overall the Bills defense fell from 1st overall on 3rd down defense in 2021 to 7th in 2022. Still a top 10 unit even with a lot of injuries. It seems any 3rd down issues are perceived rather than real. Most teams would love to be where the Bills are on 3rd down defensively. 

If only we had the desired pass rush !   Go Bills!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

When it’s 3rd down and 20 I know they are getting it. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, ngbills said:

Interesting. So we are decent vs 3rd and short, very good at 3rd and mid, and in the bottom quarter in 3rd and long or very long. 

 

3rd and 0-3 - Give up first 59.6% (16th)

3rd and 4-6 - 38.6% (3rd best)

3rd and 7-9 - 38.9% (8th worst)

3rd and 10+ - 23.2% (8th worst)

 

 

I'd love to see these stats. I always wonder whether or not the numbers have much statistical significance.

 

Where did you find them? Link?

 

 

[HurlyBurly51]

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The 3rd and 19 play was hilarious. Dane Jackson was so far off Hill and then when he caught it Jackson wasn’t even on the screen.

 

Talk about scared to death.

Infuriating.  Hill cut back, and instead of breaking back with him Jackson kept running downfield (and out of screen as you say)😂

[Saxum]

9 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

 

It is you.

[ngbills]

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'd love to see these stats. I always wonder whether or not the numbers have much statistical significance.

 

Where did you find them? Link?

 

 

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2022&year_max=2022&&opp_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&tr_gtlt=lt&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=gt&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=gt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&order_by=yards&down[]=3&__hstc=223721476.911f22f0a3bcdaf58b64afa64f4fa68a.1673924532783.1673924532783.1673924532783.1&__hssc=223721476.4.1673924532783&__hsfp=3857650353&_ga=2.220450768.996917044.1673924532-1796010297.1673924532
 

 

not sure the link will work. You can use the show criteria button to customize. 

[John from Riverside]

What I would like to see, is the stat that shows whether our defense gives up points after our office scores

[DapperCam]

Bills seem worse than average at 3rd/4th and long, which frustrates people because they are good in other 3rd down scenarios. Why the difference? It seems like just a slightly different coaching approach could get much better results.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Dolphins were 4/16 on 3rd down 

Don’t let that stop the narrative. 
 

 

[HappyDays]

9 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Watch the way the Ravens played the Bengals last night. They have zero fear. They set the tone. They don’t sit back on their heels and hope the QB makes a bad throw.

 

Uh the Ravens literally sat back and kept everything in front of them for most of the game. Chase caught like a dozen stop routes with his man playing off coverage. If the Bills defense played like that you'd be calling for Frazier's head. Then the Bengals lost Jonah Williams to injury and had to shuffle their already banged up OL and they were never able to fully adjust. Similar to what happened to us against the Dolphins a few weeks ago after Morse went down.

[Dr.Sack]

Tre Elam Milano Poyer Edmunds Rousseau hate giving up 3rd and longs. My $ says we give up no more for next 3 games.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Infuriating.  Hill cut back, and instead of breaking back with him Jackson kept running downfield (and out of screen as you say)😂

He probably had his eyes closed.

 

The fact he was like 10 yards off the entire route and still afraid to get beat deep is crazy to me.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede