What a Tuel Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 Are people really blaming the defense? Geez. Its like people don't even watch the game. 1 4 Quote
Dr. K Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:19 PM, Mr. WEO said: my bad. but after going up by 17 on the biggest playoff underdog in NFL history, they gave up the lead and went down by 4 after the fumble TD. Then, after the Offense scored 14 in under 3 minutes , Miami scored 11 unanswered. Dolphins then melted down at 2 min with dumb penalties (false start, delay of game). Even on that drive, the Bills D gave up 14 on a 2nd and 15. They also gave up a 3rd and 19 on a drive that got Miami a FG, a 2nd and 15 on another scoring drive, a 2nd and 13 for a TD drive. ask the Falcons is "points a team could have scored with TDs instead of FGs" a new analytic metric for Defenses? Expand The Dolphins' drives yesterday were: 38 yards (field goal--started the drive on the Miami 40 after Bass kicked off out of bounds) 18 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 48) 8 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 27) 18 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Buffalo 18) and in the fourth quarter 75 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Miami 25) plus the Miami defense scored in the third quarter on Josh's fumble. Conclusion: The Bills defense played an excellent game. They allowed one serious drive in the entire game. All the other Dolphins' scores came as a result of turnovers or starting their drives in Bills territory. 1 1 Quote
Dablitzkrieg Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 2:56 PM, Mr. WEO said: sure it was. Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts. Expand The defense didn't give up 31 Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 2:56 PM, Mr. WEO said: Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts. Expand The Dolphins averaged 3.3 yards per play and gained a total of 231 yards. The QB had like a 40% completion percentage. The Dolphins scored 31 largely because of sloppiness by Josh along with some special teams issues. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:50 PM, Matt_In_NH said: The Dolphins averaged 3.3 yards per play and gained a total of 231 yards. The QB had like a 40% completion percentage. The Dolphins scored 31 largely because of sloppiness by Josh along with some special teams issues. Expand Josh was sloppy, but The Offense gave them 2 double digit leads. They won by 3. This should have been a blowout, not a nail biter. Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 I assume X axis is offensive EPA/play. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:43 PM, Dr. K said: The Dolphins' drives yesterday were: 38 yards (field goal--started the drive on the Miami 40 after Bass kicked off out of bounds) 18 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 48) 8 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 27) 18 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Buffalo 18) and in the fourth quarter 75 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Miami 25) plus the Miami defense scored in the third quarter on Josh's fumble. Conclusion: The Bills defense played an excellent game. They allowed one serious drive in the entire game. All the other Dolphins' scores came as a result of turnovers or starting their drives in Bills territory. Expand there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop. On 1/16/2023 at 3:44 PM, Dablitzkrieg said: The defense didn't give up 31 Expand see above Quote
GunnerBill Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 2:58 PM, SoCal Deek said: Actually, the defense only gave up 24….and maybe less if our offense and special teams would’ve stopped giving the Dolphins the ball at midfield. Expand Or our offense hadn't given them two short fields with turnovers. And the D gave the Bills O two short fields with turnovers. The D helped the O yesterday much more than the O helped the D. There have been other games where the opposite has been true. The Bills are good all over. They just have to avoid stupid mistakes. 1 Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:52 PM, Mr. WEO said: Josh was sloppy, but The Offense gave them 2 double digit leads. They won by 3. This should have been a blowout, not a nail biter. Expand This is why you play the games, sloppiness is a good way to end your season. Should have been a blowout is right. 1 Quote
Tanoros Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 2:56 PM, Mr. WEO said: sure it was. Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts. Expand You can’t count the strip sack fumble return for the Miami offense, so that’s only 24. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:56 PM, Tanoros said: You can’t count the strip sack fumble return for the Miami offense, so that’s only 24. Expand see above 1 Quote
What a Tuel Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:53 PM, Mr. WEO said: there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop. see above Expand There is also a trend to complain the defense can't stop the 3rd string qb when the offense and special teams effectively give them a 40-75 yard head start and FG range from the get go. To place the blame solely on the defense here is ludicrous. Quote
Tanoros Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 3:53 PM, Mr. WEO said: there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop. see above Expand It’s not discounting the points scored, it’s recognizing the fact that the odds are Miami wouldn’t have scored as much if they didn’t have so many short fields (if you need an example read the post about EPA for reference about the truth of that statement). Quote
Mr. WEO Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 4:00 PM, What a Tuel said: There is also a trend to complain the defense can't stop the 3rd string qb when the offense and special teams effectively give them a 40-75 yard head start and FG range from the get go. To place the blame solely on the defense here is ludicrous. Expand I didn't Quote
without a drought Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 People should not have made such a big deal about losing close games last year, because people don't seem to like winning them either. 1 1 1 1 Quote
Mr. WEO Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 4:00 PM, Tanoros said: It’s not discounting the points scored, it’s recognizing the fact that the odds are Miami wouldn’t have scored as much if they didn’t have so many short fields (if you need an example read the post about EPA for reference about the truth of that statement). Expand whether you drive 70 yards and kick a FG or 30 yards, why would it matter? Why would that Miami Offense yesterday be expected to have scored more TDs on those short fields than they did? Quote
Chaos Posted January 16, 2023 Author Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) On 1/16/2023 at 3:07 PM, GoBills808 said: Allen also finished second in league EPA Expand Any serious person who understands the NFL ranks Allen as no worse than the third best QB in the league. He raises up the rest of the talent and coaching on his team more so than any other player in the league. (In my opinion Andy Reid coaches offense better than the Bills). No one had built a perfect model for projecting who will the next game. But this model, which has no subjectivity, is better than any I have seen. Edited January 16, 2023 by Chaos 1 1 Quote
Boatdrinks Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 2:59 PM, T master said: I'm with you - Analytics are great on paper but i'd rather see points on the board or being scored on the field than on paper just saying ... Expand The Bills don’t have too much trouble scoring points. Quote
What a Tuel Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 4:02 PM, Mr. WEO said: I didn't Expand You did. Are you really going to pretend you don't put the blame on the defense with these comments? The defense played an outstanding game. On 1/16/2023 at 3:19 PM, Mr. WEO said: my bad. but after going up by 17 on the biggest playoff underdog in NFL history, they gave up the lead and went down by 4 after the fumble TD. Then, after the Offense scored 14 in under 3 minutes , Miami scored 11 unanswered. Dolphins then melted down at 2 min with dumb penalties (false start, delay of game). Even on that drive, the Bills D gave up 14 on a 2nd and 15. They also gave up a 3rd and 19 on a drive that got Miami a FG, a 2nd and 15 on another scoring drive, a 2nd and 13 for a TD drive. ask the Falcons is "points a team could have scored with TDs instead of FGs" a new analytic metric for Defenses? Expand On 1/16/2023 at 2:56 PM, Mr. WEO said: sure it was. Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts. Expand On 1/16/2023 at 1:27 PM, Mr. WEO said: “Bills Offense measurably better than Defense” the score also reflects this Expand Quote
Mr. WEO Posted January 16, 2023 Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 4:11 PM, What a Tuel said: You did. Are you really going to pretend you don't put the blame on the defense with these comments? The defense played an outstanding game. Expand Thanks for documenting my posts (you decided to leave out "Josh was sloppy") I didn't say that the blame was "solely on the Defense". That was a fabrication you attributed to me. Quote
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