Josh Allen Bashers, what's your solution?

[frostbitmic]

2 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Well, I said before it was effective in getting sacks (7), turnovers (3), and a defensive TD. The Bills don’t score 34 if the opposing offense can sustain drives and we know the Chiefs can. If you tell Spags he can get the sacks and turnovers Miami produced I guarantee he’d take them. You can play a boom or bust defense if your offense is a threat every time they touch the ball. 

Some teams don't change their defense no matter who they're playing.

 

The Bills are also a threat to score on every play.

 

Spags might be on vacation starting next week.

[billykay]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

If anyone is injecting politics it is you.

 

Bills fans with pitchforks and torches has nothing to do with politics.

Some just want to tear down and rebuild the Bills no matter what they do whether it is build a new stadium without a dome, sign or not sign a player, etc. 

 

 

Just

 

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

If anyone is injecting politics it is you.

 

Bills fans with pitchforks and torches has nothing to do with politics.

Some just want to tear down and rebuild the Bills no matter what they do whether it is build a new stadium without a dome, sign or not sign a player, etc. 

 

 

Just a little sarcasm, Lime. Relax, I agree with you.

[ExiledInIllinois]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah here's a great example of the kind of play you're referring to:

 

 

It's 3rd and long. Davis is WIDE open in the flat and could probably make it to the 1st down marker. Instead Allen throws a low percentage deep pass to another WR in single coverage.

 

I assume you think he made the incorrect throw here?

Supposedly @ ~15% make ability... That was the lowest ever thrown by Josh and caught by his reciever... Lowest in Josh's career!

[GoBills808]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Is it even high risk if you’re going to err on the side of overthrows like we were doing?  Throwing short passes in a collapsing pocket is just as dangerous if not more so. 
 

I mean if we were talking about jump balls down the field that’s a different story,  but our receivers were winning one on ones down the sideline all game long

That plus the benefit of potential DPI

 

I get that it's not everyone's cup of tea

[ExiledInIllinois]

And it landed right in his "bread basket!"

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 I agree. That's why I was begging for KC to try and play Miami's scheme all game. I think we would put up more than we did yesterday. Especially if it's the AFCCG, where we would be playing in a Dome stadium. 

 

 

 

Nobody is going to duplicate that game plan lol it’s pretty much suicide but it was also Miami’s only chance…so much went right for them and they still gave up 34.  It’s pretty much the polar opposite of how I’d play the bills…people are talkin about how we only run deep go routes…then wouldn’t you just play two safeties over the top all game long to take that away?  Why would you let your dbs get beat one on one down the sideline with no help all game long.  
 

we were a couple inches from scoring 50+

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That plus the benefit of potential DPI

 

I get that it's not everyone's cup of tea

I don’t get how it’s not everyone’s cup of tea haha that’s what I’ve been trying to figure out 🤣. Those underneath throws are not just free yards especially when your guys are getting jammed and the pocket is collapsing.  They could get tipped,they could go through the receivers hands, etc. 

 

if your guys are winning single coverage go routes that’s a throw you just have to make.  
 

In past games josh has been going deep into tight windows and that I certainly wouldn’t endorse but an open go route?  Give me that every time.  I hope every team tries to model the Miami defense 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Supposedly @ ~15% make ability... That was the lowest ever thrown by Josh and caught by his reciever... Lowest in Josh's career!

Where’s all the advanced data that says that’s the lowest percentage throw by Josh ever caught?

 

I’ve definitely seen more improbable throws over 5 years

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, NUT said:

Josh Allen regression is all over YouTube today. Nick Wright lovin it.

Let them keep thinkin it lol give us the outside single coverage/ blitz heavy defense every game 

 

I still don’t even get it though…those two picks really weren’t on him..  the fumble was but he’s certainly not the first good qb to fumble a football 

[ExiledInIllinois]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Where’s all the advanced data that says that’s the lowest percentage throw by Josh ever caught?

 

I’ve definitely seen more improbable throws over 5 years

Yeah. Not sure what article I caught it.

 

What do you mean? Just improbable throws OR improbable throws and catches.

 

The one Shakir caught seemed more improbable! BUT maybe that was underground. Maybe he was going for Smoke further down field and pass stalled on him?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

16 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Nobody is going to duplicate that game plan lol it’s pretty much suicide but it was also Miami’s only chance…so much went right for them and they still gave up 34.  It’s pretty much the polar opposite of how I’d play the bills…people are talkin about how we only run deep go routes…then wouldn’t you just play two safeties over the top all game long to take that away?  Why would you let your dbs get beat one on one down the sideline with no help all game long.  
 

we were a couple inches from scoring 50+

 

 Yep. Making Buffalo sustain long drives to score is definitely the best defense against them. I would also play zone vs man to man.  I'm always amazed when teams try blitzing alot or primarily playing man to man. Josh usually tears that up. Make them work for it and see if Josh will get impatient. That or our online gives up a sack or gets a holding call. 

 

 A couple plays go differently and we do put 50 yesterday. Everyone wants to point to the turnovers and rightfully so, bit there were at least 2-3 big drops, Shakir's being the biggest.

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[WideNine]

O

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t get how it’s not everyone’s cup of tea haha that’s what I’ve been trying to figure out 🤣. Those underneath throws are not just free yards especially when your guys are getting jammed and the pocket is collapsing.  They could get tipped,they could go through the receivers hands, etc. 

 

if your guys are winning single coverage go routes that’s a throw you just have to make.  
 

In past games josh has been going deep into tight windows and that I certainly wouldn’t endorse but an open go route?  Give me that every time.  I hope every team tries to do that 

 

When folks say he does not take the layups, that is not just a single game assessment. 

 

That is Cover 1 breakdowns, Coselle breakdowns of film, its analyst across the board looking at tape where Allen has ignored wide open chip shots for low percentage plays that do not always pan out especially with this year's RZ turnovers.

 

Its an area of his game that needs work to force defenses to defend more of the field and it is an exploitable weakness in defenses that key on Allen when he leaves the pocket.

 

I love the play yesterday to Cook for the TD. I know it was an RPO, but the way the D-line player ran right by Cook to wrap up Allen shows just how much defenses key on Allen and ignore the other weapons on our offense.

 

 

 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Yeah. Not sure what article I caught it.

 

What do you mean? Just improbable throws OR improbable throws and catches.

 

The one Shakir caught seemed more improbable! BUT maybe that was underground. Maybe he was going for Smoke further down field and pass stalled on him?

I mean probably both

 

Josh Allen was literally throwing a ball out of the back of the Endzone in the playoffs last year that Dawson Knox caught

 

I think that’s more improbable than the Shakir catch which is a really really good NFL coach… But not as improbable as Dawson catching a throwaway Almost 9-10 feet in the air and getting 2 In in bounds 

 

I think the scramble and the throw and Knox climbing the ladder and getting 2 in bounds is more improbable when you put it all together 

 

though live at the game my jaw was dropped when shakir made the grab

Edited January 16, 2023 by Buffalo716

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I said this earlier but the lower percentage/higher variance deep throws, the resultant low comp% and the potential INTs, the general high risk high reward ethos...these are features of the offense not bugs.

 

Here's another example from the 4th quarter with a different result:

 

 

The ball hits Davis's hands and bounces into the air where he then has a 2nd chance to come down with the ball. Incomplete.

 

So I guess my question is, is Allen not supposed to throw that ball because he doesn't trust Davis to catch it? If not then what is the difference between this play and the last one I posted other than the fact that Diggs came down with his but Davis didn't come down with his?

 

On both plays Allen sees his receiver with a step on his man in coverage and no safety help. That's a pre-defined read that he is always going to take. Do people in this thread really think he's just launching bombs again and again because he feels like it?

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Here's another example from the 4th quarter with a different result:

 

 

The ball hits Davis's hands and bounces into the air where he then has a 2nd chance to come down with the ball. Incomplete.

 

So I guess my question is, is Allen not supposed to throw that ball because he doesn't trust Davis to catch it? If not then what is the difference between this play and the last one I posted other than the fact that Diggs came down with his but Davis didn't come down with his?

 

On both plays Allen sees his receiver with a step on his man in coverage and no safety help. That's a pre-defined read that he is always going to take. Do people in this thread really think he's just launching bombs again and again because he feels like it?

To answer your last question first- it seems like yes tbh

 

In this offense Allen's reads are deep to shallow. So when he sees cover 1 and the safety come down on the shallow cross the rule is hit the deep go.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Here's another example from the 4th quarter with a different result:

 

 

The ball hits Davis's hands and bounces into the air where he then has a 2nd chance to come down with the ball. Incomplete.

 

So I guess my question is, is Allen not supposed to throw that ball because he doesn't trust Davis to catch it? If not then what is the difference between this play and the last one I posted other than the fact that Diggs came down with his but Davis didn't come down with his?

 

On both plays Allen sees his receiver with a step on his man in coverage and no safety help. That's a pre-defined read that he is always going to take. Do people in this thread really think he's just launching bombs again and again because he feels like it?

 

 But the pundits on TV are screaming check it down. Lets go ahead and do that. Then they all will be b!tchin that we have Herbert 2.0. 

 

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

29 minutes ago, WideNine said:

O

 

When folks say he does not take the layups, that is not just a single game assessment. 

 

That is Cover 1 breakdowns, Coselle breakdowns of film, its analyst across the board looking at tape where Allen has ignored wide open chip shots for low percentage plays that do not always pan out especially with this year's RZ turnovers.

 

Its an area of his game that needs work to force defenses to defend more of the field and it is an exploitable weakness in defenses that key on Allen when he leaves the pocket.

 

I love the play yesterday to Cook for the TD. I know it was an RPO, but the way the D-line player ran right by Cook to wrap up Allen shows just how much defenses key on Allen and ignore the other weapons on our offense.

 

 

 

I’m strictly talking about yesterdays game…if cover 1 comes out and says ‘he shouldn’t be throwing to open go routes’ I will be shocked.  Those ARE layups for huge gains.  These were not often risky downfield jump balls like in weeks past…there was one of those to diggs that was a ridiculous throw that hit him right in the hands somehow.  Lots of the shots were wide open go routes though…most notably the back to back to Davis that everyone complained about 
 

im not trying to say the criticism from previous games is false im just trying to say it doesn’t track with what happened yesterday. Miami basically inverted the formula against the bills that’s been employed all season long so the thing he’s previously been accused of doing too much of became the recipe for success imo.  
 

Miami was gambling that their dbs could jam long enough for the pass rush to get home and the results were pretty mixed…they were lucky to not give up a buttload more points lol
 

I think any type of advanced play analysis from yesterdays game is going to be a lot more josh friendly than the posts here are making it sound but we’ll see.  If you don’t want your qb taking deep sideline shots against cover 1 press you need a new qb.  Trying to thread the needle deep into cover 2 like he’s done sometimes is a completely different situation 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[BRH]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In this offense Allen's reads are deep to shallow. So when he sees cover 1 and the safety come down on the shallow cross the rule is hit the deep go.

 

Perfect, succinct explanation.

 

Even better:  he has the arm to hit anybody, anywhere.

[WideNine]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’m strictly talking about yesterdays game…if cover 1 comes out and says ‘he shouldn’t be throwing to open go routes’ I will be shocked.  Those ARE layups for huge gains.  These were not often risky downfield jump balls like in weeks past…there was one of those to diggs that was a ridiculous throw that hit him right in the hands somehow.  Lots of the shots were wide open go routes though…most notably the back to back to Davis that everyone complained about 
 

im not trying to say the criticism from previous games is false im just trying to say it doesn’t track with what happened yesterday. Miami basically inverted the formula against the bills that’s been employed all season long so the thing he’s previously been accused of doing too much of became the recipe for success imo.  
 

Miami was gambling that their dbs could jam long enough for the pass rush to get home and the results were pretty mixed…they were lucky to not give up a buttload more points lol
 

I think any type of advanced play analysis from yesterdays game is going to be a lot more josh friendly than the posts here are making it sound but we’ll see.  If you don’t want your qb taking deep sideline shots against cover 1 press you need a new qb 

 

Yesterday's game is a tough one to assess. 

 

Miami went full out yolo taking their chances with the blitzes.

 

They are decent at stopping the run, but I would have liked to have seen a few more power gap runs with Cook against that.

 

If they are sending the house, it could slow the rush a bit and if he breaks free from that first wave of Blitzers then goodbye.

 

Other than that, I would want to take a longer look at the game and avoid the knee-jerk.

 

That fumble at the start of the 2nd half... give some credit to Miami for a well-timed corner blitz.

 

Josh just needs to be aware of where he is at on the field and the likelihood that Miami may bring that pressure from the slot and our offense needs to have some effective hot routes for Allen to hit quickly in those situations.

 

Or he can quickly throw it away, or turtle up and take the sack, anything but a fumble on the doorstep.

 

 

 

 

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

1 hour ago, NUT said:

Josh Allen regression is all over YouTube today. Nick Wright lovin it.

 

I don't agree with Nick Wright very often but his analysis of Josh here is pretty spot on and enough to have me worried that our window isn't as wide open as we thought.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ