We're on to Cincinnati(Bengals coming to OP). Sunday 1/22 at 3pm. Opening Line Bills -5

[Chandler#81]

 

 

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

But in those few plays what did the Bengals do? You just can't discount those plays. They were moving diwn the field with ease. In fact, their offense was in rhythm in sync and doing whatever it wanted to do. The Bills D looked like they had few answers to stop them. Of course, no one knows how the game woukd have ended. Early on though the Bills D was leaking badly. What will they do to stop the leaks? Can they stop the leaks? 

Looked like that against most opponents this year though. 

[boyst]

8 minutes ago, henry jones said:

Hopefully we don't need to blitz often to get pressure.  

 

Side note... Any word on Phillips this Sunday?

McD is on wgr at 11.  Maybe then. Only team walk through today 

6 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

12 INT. ?!?!  How? Only Josh does that

[Logic]

The Bills are winning this weekend. It's happening. Have faith.

There it is. Now you can enjoy the rest of your week, stress free.

 

[DapperCam]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

McD is on wgr at 11.  Maybe then. Only team walk through today 

12 INT. ?!?!  How? Only Josh does that

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

[Low Positive]

Punting stats are really interesting to look at. The Bengals have the 9th fewest punts in the NFL at 59 punts, but as we all know the Bills have the fewest number of punts at 45. What's interesting is massive leap that the Bills took offensively in 2020 is reflected in punt numbers. In 2019, a year that the Bills made the playoffs, they had the fourth most punts at 79. The following year, they had the fewest number of punts at 41. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

15 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Line has moved to Bills -5.5. 

Where did it start.  I am a big believer that the direction of the line moving is extremely strong indicator, moving in our favor is huge imo.

[boyst]

Just now, DapperCam said:

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

in a vacuum you can look at a lot of things. at least 5 INT's off of the top of my mind were not really on Allen or real. 2 bounced out of the WR's hands. 1 the WR just gave up on it - i think that was against Minnesota. and then the last week one where a new WR - Brown ran wrong.

 

in a vacuum you can argue anything. stats are stats. and cinci hasn't played a ball hawking defense. our d is more like pburgh than the rest of cinci's opps.

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

Nobody look at the fumble stats. Just dont do it.

[RiotAct]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Bills are winning this weekend. It's happening. Have faith.

There it is. Now you can enjoy the rest of your week, stress free.

 

thanks, @Logic.

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Where did it start.  I am a big believer that the direction of the line moving is extremely strong indicator, moving in our favor is huge imo.

Bills -4 I do believe.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I think @Big Turk has a really interesting thread on turnovers. And I think there's something it.

 

Because the Bills punt so much less than most teams, and have the highest 3rd down conversation rate, and go for it on 4th down... they steal about as many more possessions as they turn the ball over. And then when you add the turnovers the Bills force, the problem is mitigated. 

 

Sure zero turnovers is ideal, but they make up for it in ways that aren't usually accounted for. 

 

 

Seems like the vast majority of our turnovers this season have been on the opponents side of the field which pretty much equates to a punt.  Everyone seems to get angriest at red zone interceptions but strategically that’s way better than turning it over on your own side of the field like we did a couple times against the dolphins 

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Where did it start.  I am a big believer that the direction of the line moving is extremely strong indicator, moving in our favor is huge imo.

 

I think Bills -2.5

 

People may say, well look at the Dolphins movement and how the game turned out, but anyone watching that game knows the Bills should have won by 30 if they weren't busy messing around on some nonsense all afternoon. 

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Nobody look at the fumble stats. Just dont do it.

go look at sacks allowed by QB.

 

compare that Burrow is  6th with 41 sacks to them having among the lowest time in the pocket, least scrambles, and least pressures... their OL is a sieve.

 

burrow puts the ball out in 2.2 seconds. yet is average in scrambles and 2nd lowest blitzed qb.

 

2022 NFL Advanced Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

[ArdmoreRyno]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think Bills -2.5

 

People may say, well look at the Dolphins movement and how the game turned out, but anyone watching that game knows the Bills should have won by 30 if they weren't busy messing around on some nonsense all afternoon. 

 

Opened at Buffalo -4.5 O/U 50

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

 

Over the last 8 weeks of regular season Burrow threw more ints than Josh.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Scott7975

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Over the last 8 weeks of regular season Burrow threw more ints than Josh.

 

I hope he extends his lead on Sunday! Go ahead, run away with it!!!  

[finn]

20 minutes ago, boyst said:

McD is on wgr at 11.  Maybe then. Only team walk through today 

12 INT. ?!?!  How? Only Josh does that

Allen constantly gets dinged for his turnovers. It's an inevitable part of the narrative now, even though he has just a few more than the other top QBs. Left out of most account are his rushing yards and TDs. You put them into the equation, and no one is his equal. I really, really don't get why everyone--even posters on this board--think Mahomes is the better QB. Allen makes all the Mahomes throws and rushes 60 yards a game. Should be the end of the discussion. 

 

My theory is that because Mahomes started his career in spectacular fashion, he is the default MVP. Quibbles like his throwing a pick to end KC's season last year, and a pick to end the game against the Bills this year, are ignored. Inconvenient facts.