Will DeAndre Hopkins be available this offseason?

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, Buddo said:

The point about having owners with deep pockets, is important.

 

Guarantees on players contracts, have to go into escrow, once the deal is signed. While the amount that guarantee is, is relevant to cap situations, he fact is that money has to be coughed up by ownership.

 

Owners with deep pockets, can afford to throw several hundred million in guarantees into escrow. It isn't so simple as that for all owners.

 

The Bengals would be a good example of this, as would the Raiders, neither of whose owners have large amounts of wealth outside of their franchises.

 

The Bengals are going to have to pay out some substantial guarantees in the not too distant future, particularly to Burrow, and finding the liquidity to put those guarantees into escrow, isn't going to be easy for them.

You notice how you never hear about the Bengals restructuring contracts? It’s because they always have cap space because the owners have their own budget which is lower than the cap itself.

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

You notice how you never hear about the Bengals restructuring contracts? It’s because they always have cap space because the owners have their own budget which is lower than the cap itself.

Even their big splash Orlando Brown signing .. they front-loaded it because they have room to pay cash to cap before Burrow & Chase hit. 
 

Bills/Chiefs would be playing cap games with that contract to load up this year knowing the future cap games they can play with a massive QB contract. 
 

Edited March 26, 2023 by SCBills

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Give me Dhop and a Super Bowl Chance now.

 

OK - but is DHop really the missing piece between the Bills and a SuperBowl Chance?

 

Keep in mind, again, he's missed 19 out of the last 2 years 34 games, and that it's hard to throw completions if the QB is running his way out of trouble or getting hurried.

 

Von Miller wasn't the missing piece between the Bills and a Superbowl last season because he had a season-ending injury, an ACL.

DHop missed the last 5 games of 2021 with a season ending injury, an MCL tear, and had a 'flare up' costing 2 games at the end of 2022.

 

I mean, if the Bills win the Superbowl next year or in 2025, the way I am now, I'm personally all about living through a tear-down.

 

But that's not what Beane claims they want to do.  So signing DHop might be incompatible with his claimed goals.

 

And also - if fan talk about cap considerations bothers you, why not just move on by and find something that does interest you instead of railing at people who do like to think about these things?

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK - but is DHop really the missing piece between the Bills and a SuperBowl Chance?

 

Keep in mind, again, he's missed 19 out of the last 2 years 34 games, and that it's hard to throw completions if the QB is running his way out of trouble or getting hurried.

I think he is and not only that we don't have to feed him like the main man.... I'm not saying guaranteed championship but I definitely think he at least doubles our odds. Takes the offense to whole new level.

[PrimeTime101]

On 1/10/2023 at 4:53 PM, NeverOutNick said:

The Score's Jordan Schultz reports that the Cardinals plan to trade DeAndre Hopkins this offseason.
 

i’ve been telling my buddies for the last month that if we could just get DeAndre Hopkins to be our 1b to Stefon Diggs 1a we would be set at receiver next year. Gabe Davis can then flourish as the third guy like he used to. And we know DeAndre Hopkins has some of the best hands this league has ever seen.

 

Then the draft would be Offensive line galore with a sprinkle of secondary help 

You know... It could happen but it would have to be some sort of Miricale with our cap situation... 

 

3 1/2 months later....

 

Oh Damn this could happen! I want your crystal ball man. 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I think he is and not only that we don't have to feed him like the main man.... I'm not saying guaranteed championship but I definitely think he at least doubles our odds. Takes the offense to whole new level.

I'm assuming 8 of the 19 missed games are due to the suspension. You're gambling on availability, that he'll be relatively healthy and maintain production. Some old timers have hearkened back to James Lofton. I dunno, but so far there hasn't been any perceivable drop off in his play. I think he's still got something left in the tank. Beck Water's concern about oline protection is another issue, but I don't think trading for DHop is going to tangibly affect that side of things. They've made their free agent plays on oline. I think they should add a day one or two pick as well, regardless of whether they get Hopkins or not.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I think he is and not only that we don't have to feed him like the main man.... I'm not saying guaranteed championship but I definitely think he at least doubles our odds. Takes the offense to whole new level.

I think we need a couple things:

 

-OL improvement.  McGovern is a good start.  Edwards, also helpful.  Could be as simple as a Year 2 jump in Kromers scheme and Brown getting better.   Would love a Tackle at 27 though. 

-Improved pass rush. Again, could be as simple as just getting Von back at some point.  Would love an added vet pass rush specialist though.  
 

-WR2/3 upgrade. Could be Hopkins.  Could be a high draft pick .. Problem with the draft is who knows what’s there at 27 or RD2 for that matter.  I even think someone like Zay Flowers in the slot could be that missing piece, but will he be there? 
 

 

[Figster]

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2023 by Figster

[MasterStrategist]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Actually I know for a fact that we are in better future cap shape than the Bengals because we have owners that are willing to spend. Beane has a blank check to use Pegula's money for signing bonuses that push salary into the future. I doubt the Bengals front office has anywhere near that same latitude for spending.

 

I'm not too familiar with Chiefs ownership and their spending habits. I will say they've had a very light offseason all things considered. They were apparently unwilling to cave to Orlando Brown's demands and in the process they ended up paying more for what most analysts consider to be a worse player. If their cap was in great shape they presumably would already have Hopkins given their need at the position, contrary to recent reports that they dropped out of the process entirely. Chiefs fans on Twitter have expressed quite a bit of consternation about the front office's inaction with the WR room this offseason. Yes even after a Super Bowl win they still want more from their front office and are concerned about the state of their salary cap.

Or KC is being prudent.  

 

It's not just about the cap going up (your prior post), but staying competitive and not handicapping ourselves against the rest of the league.  Yes, I'm sure the cap will increase and we can find a way to stay below it. 

 

But how much do we sacrifice in the ability to retain talent, attract talent (FA), etc.  If we have 8% of our cap tied up in "dead $", that's a 8% disadvantage we put ourselves in, unless every other NFL franchise is doing the exact same thing (which they arent).

 

Trust me, I want the SB victory and more talent, but building through the draft is the key.  We already took our shot with a big FA, in Von and with a trade fews yrs back (Diggs).

 

Cheap/talented labor is the missing piece, to long term success.  This has propelled Cincy, KC, and even the Jets in recent years.  Miami is living in a house they can't afford, we don't want to be in the same spot 2 years from now

[TheBeaneBandit]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think we need a couple things:

 

-OL improvement.  McGovern is a good start.  Edwards, also helpful.  Could be as simple as a Year 2 jump in Kromers scheme and Brown getting better.   Would love a Tackle at 27 though. 

-Improved pass rush. Again, could be as simple as just getting Von back at some point.  Would love an added vet pass rush specialist though.  
 

-WR2/3 upgrade. Could be Hopkins.  Could be a high draft pick .. Problem with the draft is who knows what’s there at 27 or RD2 for that matter.  I even think someone like Zay Flowers in the slot could be that missing piece, but will he be there? 
 

 

Oh I agree. But like you said any scenario we cook up there are so many unknowns.

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Or KC is being prudent.  

 

It's not just about the cap going up (your prior post), but staying competitive and not handicapping ourselves against the rest of the league.  Yes, I'm sure the cap will increase and we can find a way to stay below it. 

 

But how much do we sacrifice in the ability to retain talent, attract talent (FA), etc.  If we have 8% of our cap tied up in "dead $", that's a 8% disadvantage we put ourselves in, unless every other NFL franchise is doing the exact same thing (which they arent).

 

Trust me, I want the SB victory and more talent, but building through the draft is the key.  We already took our shot with a big FA, in Von and with a trade fews yrs back (Diggs).

 

Cheap/talented labor is the missing piece, to long term success.  This has propelled Cincy, KC, and even the Jets in recent years.  Miami is living in a house they can't afford, we don't want to be in the same spot 2 years from now

I think a KC fan was on here and told us they really only have one more lever left to pull … that would be a Chris Jones extension.  
 

I have no idea why they wouldn’t do that.  He’s dominant and only 28.  Spotrac has him with a 28M cap hit and then a UFA in ‘24. 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by SCBills

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I think he is and not only that we don't have to feed him like the main man.... I'm not saying guaranteed championship but I definitely think he at least doubles our odds. Takes the offense to whole new level.

 

Hopkins has been "the main man" in terms of Y/G and R/G, basically, every season since 2015 except 2021 when he was hampered by rib and hammie issues and went "even steven" with Christian Kirk.  And most of those years it hasn't been close.

 

Does Hopkins and his Ego know that we don't have to feed him "like the main man"?

 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

I understand we may have to rebuild slightly in 5 years or so but if paying for Hopkins gets you a Super Bowl this year or next, it would ease the burden of the small rebuild. Allen would still be here as well, we wouldn't be completely out of him with him anyway

My view is that “adding Hopkins (or any other 1 or 2 players) in no way guarantees you a SB next year.  Last year’s Bills team was good enough to win it all, injuries derailed that and other teams are damn good, too.  
 

Forget the cap for a minute and tell me which two players, if they were magically acquired, would guarantee a Super Bowl win next year?

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm assuming 8 of the 19 missed games are due to the suspension. You're gambling on availability, that he'll be relatively healthy and maintain production. Some old timers have hearkened back to James Lofton. I dunno, but so far there hasn't been any perceivable drop off in his play. I think he's still got something left in the tank. Beck Water's concern about oline protection is another issue, but I don't think trading for DHop is going to tangibly affect that side of things. They've made their free agent plays on oline. I think they should add a day one or two pick as well, regardless of whether they get Hopkins or not.

 

6 of the 19 missed games.  He was suspended 6 games.  What's unknown is how many of those games he might have missed or been less effective for had he not taken whatever PED he took to try to accelerate healing of his MCL injury - and since it 'flared up" at the end of the season, is it really Good to Go?

 

The perceivable drop off in Hopkins' play was in 2021, when he had rib and hamstring injuries which apparently hampered him while he was playing, and dropped from his usual 7 receptions and 78-80 YPG to 4 receptions and 57 ypg.  He wasn't hampered whilst playing in 2022, but he missed the first 6 games of the season (suspended) and the last 2 (flare up of knee injury), so it's a good question whether he could still maintain production over, say, a 20 or 21  game season at this point.

 

I think the Hopkins effect on OL, is that if the Bills spend their entire FA wad on Hopkins vs. picking up a capable DL or LB as FA continues, they're more likely to go heavy on D in the draft instead of drafting OL and WR.  Just my opinion and I'd love to be wrong.  I don't think the Bills will add a Day 1 or Day 2 OL pick if they sign DHop, for the preceding reason.

 

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

My view is that “adding Hopkins (or any other 1 or 2 players) in no way guarantees you a SB next year.  Last year’s Bills team was good enough to win it all, injuries derailed that and other teams are damn good, too.  
 

Forget the cap for a minute and tell me which two players, if they were magically acquired, would guarantee a Super Bowl win next year?

 

OH, Ho ho.

 

Since you ask:

 

Tristan Wirfs (RT, Tampa)

Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings)

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

6 of the 19 missed games.  He was suspended 6 games.  What's unknown is how many of those games he might have missed or been less effective for had he not taken whatever PED he took to try to accelerate healing of his MCL injury - and since it 'flared up" at the end of the season, is it really Good to Go?

 

The perceivable drop off in Hopkins' play was in 2021, when he had rib and hamstring injuries which apparently hampered him while he was playing, and dropped from his usual 7 receptions and 78-80 YPG to 4 receptions and 57 ypg.  He wasn't hampered whilst playing in 2022, but he missed the first 6 games of the season (suspended) and the last 2 (flare up of knee injury), so it's a good question whether he could still maintain production over, say, a 20 or 21  game season at this point.

 

I think the Hopkins effect on OL, is that if the Bills spend their entire FA wad on Hopkins vs. picking up a capable DL or LB as FA continues, they're more likely to go heavy on D in the draft instead of drafting OL and WR.  Just my opinion and I'd love to be wrong.  I don't think the Bills will add a Day 1 or Day 2 OL pick if they sign DHop, for the preceding reason.

Plausible argument. I don't think there is a LB left in free agency that is going to stop them from using an early pick at the position. You know the pull of their natural inclinations is going to favor DL, LB, S, but I hope somehow they fight against that and really tilt more towards the offense in the draft.

[TheBeaneBandit]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hopkins has been "the main man" in terms of Y/G and R/G, basically, every season since 2015 except 2021 when he was hampered by rib and hammie issues and went "even steven" with Christian Kirk.  And most of those years it hasn't been close.

 

Does Hopkins and his Ego know that we don't have to feed him "like the main man"?

 

If he's only interested in getting a ring now it may be possible. I'll have to ask him and get back to you lol

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, jahnyc said:

I would think the players will want the cash now and be fine to restructure, but who knows how the Bills view White and Dawkins, and whether they could be cap casualties in the upcoming years.  I assume restructures now will negatively impact the cap hits of players released in the future.

Yes, that’s true.  Players for the most part are happy to restructure and get money sooner.  Hopkins is 31 y.o. And has 2 years remaining on his contract at (roughly) $20M for 2023 and $15M for 2024 when he will be 32 y.o.  Most restructured contracts add time on the backend of the contract and pay a big chunk up front to be amortized over the remaining years on the contract.  For example, Bills could add 2 years to Hopkins contract at basically $0/ year and pay him the total $35M now as a signing bonus.  That would allow them to take a cap hit of $35/4 = $8.75M per year for 2023-2026.  Sounds great, but if Hopkins play falls on due to injury or age or he decides to retire after 2024 - the Bills would have to eat $15M of dead cap in 2025.  
 

i expect this will happen with Von Miler at some point - he isn’t going to play the length of his contract and the Bills will have to weather that dead cap hit.

[Buffalo03]

47 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK - but is DHop really the missing piece between the Bills and a SuperBowl Chance?

 

Keep in mind, again, he's missed 19 out of the last 2 years 34 games, and that it's hard to throw completions if the QB is running his way out of trouble or getting hurried.

 

Von Miller wasn't the missing piece between the Bills and a Superbowl last season because he had a season-ending injury, an ACL.

DHop missed the last 5 games of 2021 with a season ending injury, an MCL tear, and had a 'flare up' costing 2 games at the end of 2022.

 

I mean, if the Bills win the Superbowl next year or in 2025, the way I am now, I'm personally all about living through a tear-down.

 

But that's not what Beane claims they want to do.  So signing DHop might be incompatible with his claimed goals.

 

And also - if fan talk about cap considerations bothers you, why not just move on by and find something that does interest you instead of railing at people who do like to think about these things?

 

Is a drafted rookie the missing piece? Also, if Dhop gets us there and we win it, do you care about cap ramifications 5 years from now?

Edited March 26, 2023 by Buffalo03

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

1 minute ago, Buffalo03 said:

Is a drafted rookie the missing piece?

Lol and in the late 3rd round too. People acting like 2nd and 3rd rounders are hall of farmers…more then half the league is udfa 

[Buffalo03]

17 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

My view is that “adding Hopkins (or any other 1 or 2 players) in no way guarantees you a SB next year.  Last year’s Bills team was good enough to win it all, injuries derailed that and other teams are damn good, too.  
 

Forget the cap for a minute and tell me which two players, if they were magically acquired, would guarantee a Super Bowl win next year?

No one is saying it guarantees us a Super bowl. But you can't convince me that settling for an unknown in the draft route will do so either. I will say I think Dhop gives us a much better chance at a Super Bowl than not having one. Anyone should be able to agree with that