Will DeAndre Hopkins be available this offseason?

[HOUSE]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This thread has gone on so long I've now been fooled twice by the same poster posting the same fake link taking me to the same picture.

 

This is serious stuff Mister.....

[SCBills]

11 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'd recommend going out to Spotrac or another site to look at the #s.  But in summary:

1. Mahomes vs Allen: similar cap hits up thru 2028, but less for Pat. Because KC already took a big hit in 2022

 

2. Rookie contracts: both KC and Cincy have hit on more contributing draft picks.  Yes eventually those deals will come due, but they have more flexibility given we have already restructured several high-cost players that puts us in a "more leveraged position" currently.

 

Being more leveraged, as of now, is exactly what Beane alluded to in his FA presser a week or so back.  He seemed hesitant to do it again, mentioning it would take the right player and situation...but Dhops deal is probably the most expensive option to take on, unless AZ keeps a sizeable portion above their obligation.  

 

I'm just using all available info (cap resources, Beanes comments recently, Beanes psst comments and actions) and making my own logical opinion...it just doesn't seem like a move Beane would make.

KC is in the best position right now because they moved Tyreek Hill and hit on draft picks.  Have a ton of draft picks this year as well.   There’s really no sense in arguing … Veach has killed it.  
 

What is true, is that Kelce is getting up there in age and let’s see if their draft picks keep progressing.  If they do, we will continue to chase them unless Beane absolutely crushes this draft and guys like Bates, McGovern and Brown all make jumps to solidify the OL (all on affordable multi-year contracts).  
 

The Bills can also look better than KC cap wise if they move off a big contract like Tre White for some reason after this season.   Who knows what will happen. 
 

The Bengals are a different story.  They have so many big $$$ players coming due and the wild card is whether their owner can pay beyond their typical financial philosophy.  He does not have the cash flow of the ownership for BUF and KC.  
 

Edited March 26, 2023 by SCBills

[Goin Breakdown]

2 hours ago, Yantha said:

I've stayed out of this thread but at 141 pages.....  can someone please give the the summary in ONE post?  LOL.....

 

Seems I need to catch up.

-Hopkins, Boogie, Oliver wrote cryptic tweets- Bills fans and media go nuts with excitement and hope

- Do it Beane

- Media tweets rates and compensation issues. We all analyze more

- Do it Bean. 
- mixed in it all we have inner-board arguments and condescending remarks

-Fake news reported tricking some 

and for the last 2 days we've have a few pages of wondering how many pages well

get to. 

[Playoffs?]

1 minute ago, jahnyc said:

Also, not sure whether Allen and Diggs have repaired their relationship yet, but adding Hopkins to the mix can only complicate things for Josh.

Is it confirmed that Allen & Diggs are at odds?  I know the way it looked in the last game… but does their relationship need repairing?

[jahnyc]

Fair point.  Who knows, but something has seemed off between them.

[MrEpsYtown]

Anybody go blind yet?

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

It's not your money. Don't worry about it lol

 

37 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Exactly.

 

Fans worrying about cap.

 

lol

 

It’s not about the money coming out of an owner’s pocket, it’s about maximizing the finite resource of cap space. And it’s ridiculous to say that the cap doesn’t matter. If that were true, then DHop wouldn’t be on the trading block and Tre Edmunds would still be a Bill. 

Edited March 26, 2023 by BarleyNY

[BRH]

16 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

The Bills likely have some difficult considerations to work through.   To make this work for the cap, the Bills will need to restructure current players that they may not want to restructure (i.e., Dawkins and White) and/or make trades of players to create cap space (Oliver), which will create new holes.

 

I'm not sure why players wouldn't want to restructure if it means more money up front.  I guess it also means, with the extra years, that the team theoretically can control them until their value on the open market isn't what the player wants it to be.  But most players (a) like more money up front and (b) are confident enough to bet on themselves.  

[97bills]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I understand we may have to rebuild slightly in 5 years or so but if paying for Hopkins gets you a Super Bowl this year or next, it would ease the burden of the small rebuild. Allen would still be here as well, we wouldn't be completely out of him with him anyway

Thank you. Some bills fans need to stop with the argument if we get Dhop , the money and draft pick are going to hurt to much down the road, and keep us from being a dynasty, and that’s what it’s all about, they think if we draft well don’t spend to much we can be in the Super Bowl every other year.. but that’s just not going to happen no matter what, the AFC is to stacked, and we got McDermott and Dorsey.. going up against one of the best OC in the game with Mahomes, let’s try to win one .. we will always be a sup playoff team just like we have been the last few years. If anything getting von was the wrong move , we need help on offense… 

[HappyDays]

46 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

What nobody knows:

1. How much future cap will go up

 

Nobody knows the exact dollar figure but it is pretty much set in stone that the yearly cap increase will accelerate substantially over the next few years. I've heard Peter King talk about it a few times, he's as plugged in as anyone. The new TV deals signed with the major networks in 2021 are just going into effect this year. The streaming deal with Google/YouTube will go into effect this year. I heard Peter King say that many around the NFL expect the cap to go up by "leaps and bounds" in 2024 and even moreso in 2025 and beyond because of those new deals. The annual ~$10 million increase we're used to will no longer be the standard. That's why any cap we're pushing all the way to 2026 for example I'm not even remotely worried about it. We can easily keep pushing salary into future years because we have owners with bottomless pockets and we can keep doing that until the day Allen retires.

[Goin Breakdown]

14 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Anybody go blind yet?

That's a myth. 

[jahnyc]

I would think the players will want the cash now and be fine to restructure, but who knows how the Bills view White and Dawkins, and whether they could be cap casualties in the upcoming years.  I assume restructures now will negatively impact the cap hits of players released in the future.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Hopkins trade value is very low as he otherwise would be cut due to salary and AZ rebuild. Multiple teams (incl KC) interested in the highly talented, but aging vet so that’s what is establishing his market. Cards could assume some of his salary, but compensation would increase. Bills would have to make more than one salary cap move to fit Hopkins’ salary, which is $19.45M in 2023 and $14.915M in 2024. One of those salary cap moves would likely have to be trading Oliver. Another logical move would be to rework Hopkins’ contract. Owners meeting starts Monday and would be the logical time to work this all out since there are many moving parts to making this happen. 

 

Truly excellent summation.  I would add in only that Arizona will already take on $22.5M in dead cap this season, from Hopkins various signing, option, and restructure bonuses.

 

One might point out that Hopkins at this point is not gonna sign on to be paid less in a trade. 

 

So in order to pay a guy $34.5M but lower his cap hit, the fundamental strategy is to extend a guy, giving him a small salary and a significant signing bonus amortized over the life of the contract.  That works best with a 4 or 5 year contract since splitting a big bonus over 2 or 3 years doesn't afford much cap relief - but it comes at a risk, since if the player "ages out" and retires or is cut, the team is on the hook for big amortized bonuses accelerating onto the cap. 

 

The Bills have one aging superstar, in 34 year old Von Miller, where they've employed this strategy.  If Miller is cut or retires in 2025 when he's 36, the Bills take on $15M dead cap.  30 year old Stefon Diggs is another example, where if the Bills cut him, trade him, or he retires in 2025 when he's 32, they take on $22M in dead cap.

The other strategy is to tack on void years, and "pay him Tuesday for a Hamburger today".  The Bills have done this with a number of players, including Dion Dawkins (void years in 2025 and 2026, when he'll be 31 and 32, totaling $2.8M), Micah Hyde (void years in 2024, 2025, and 2026, when he'll be 34, 35, 36, totaling $3.4M), DaQuan Jones (void year in 2024, $1.8M), and Matt Milano (void year in 2027 when he'll be 32, $4.9M)

 

There's a balance between "staying competitive every year" as Beane insists in interviews, the Bills want to do, and swinging for the fences with a big FA signing or trade acquisition that the team believes will take them over the top. 

 

Last year, after 13 seconds, the Bills basically decided they were almost there and their missing pieces were a guy who could "affect the QB" and an upgrade at CB, despite spending a first round pick and 2 2nd round picks at DE the two previous years.  So they "swung for the fence" with Von Miller as their big add to take them over the top, plus 1st round DB adding Kaiir Elam.  They felt that their OL was "good enough" with Allen's elusiveness, and counted on Davis and McKenzie to take big steps.  Well, the OL wasn't, Davis and McKenzie took steps but not enough, and Miller got hurt on Thanksgiving.

 

The Bills can "swing for the fences" and renegotiate a 31 yr old WR who has played 19 of 34 games the last 2 seasons to an extended contract to manage the cap. 

 

That would then free them to try to add more talent at LB and DT high in the draft - their MO for the last couple of years.  They can do that if they truly believe that Hopkins is that game-changing piece that will take them to the championship and everyplace else is good enough.

 

I don't know if that would be right.  I don't know if they've added enough on OL at FA and WR depth, or if they're right to bet on Davis, Shakir, and Spencer Brown all taking steps.

 

I had no objection to trading for Diggs.  I felt they needed a top WR who could show Josh Allen what it's like to play with a top WR and show the other WR how they need to practice and prepare and release and run routes in order to elevate their game.  I felt we wouldn't get that from a rookie.  And for the last 3 years I felt like we got what we paid for with Diggs.

 

With Von Miller, I made a similar argument.  It's hard to draft a top pass rusher at the bottom of the 1st round, and maybe the guys we drafted needed a top talent to "show them how it's done" and help them develop.

 

But now we have 2 of these guys, so adding a 3rd in Hopkins seems pretty clear that it will position us for needing to do a salary cap dump and rebuild.  I am pretty sure that is NOT the way to stay competitive every year.  The way to do that, is to bring in strong cheap talent through the draft - Justin Jefferson now at $2.8M vs. Diggs this year at $14.8M and $27.8 next season. 

 

Now maybe it's worth it, if he's really the "missing piece" and we can win a title this year and next then tear it all down.  But that all depends upon our aging superstars staying healthy.

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[Buffalo03]

17 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

It’s not about the money coming out of an owner’s pocket, it’s about maximizing the finite resource of cap space. And it’s ridiculous to say that the cap doesn’t matter. If that were true, then DHop wouldn’t be on the trading block and Tre Edmunds would still be a Bill. 

We know what it's about. It still doesn't change anything lol

[Beck Water]

26 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

-Hopkins, Boogie, Oliver wrote cryptic tweets

 

 

What did Basham tweet that's deemed to be relevant?

[HappyDays]

58 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

And yes, KC is in much better cap shape than us...as is Cincy, even after Burrow/potential Higgins deal for the next 2 seasons.

 

Actually I know for a fact that we are in better future cap shape than the Bengals because we have owners that are willing to spend. Beane has a blank check to use Pegula's money for signing bonuses that push salary into the future. I doubt the Bengals front office has anywhere near that same latitude for spending.

 

I'm not too familiar with Chiefs ownership and their spending habits. I will say they've had a very light offseason all things considered. They were apparently unwilling to cave to Orlando Brown's demands and in the process they ended up paying more for what most analysts consider to be a worse player. If their cap was in great shape they presumably would already have Hopkins given their need at the position, contrary to recent reports that they dropped out of the process entirely. Chiefs fans on Twitter have expressed quite a bit of consternation about the front office's inaction with the WR room this offseason. Yes even after a Super Bowl win they still want more from their front office and are concerned about the state of their salary cap.

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

We know what it's about. It still doesn't change anything lol

 

If only discussions that could change things took place between fans, fan discussion boards would be limited to 145 pages of "Go Bills!"

[SCBills]

15 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

I would think the players will want the cash now and be fine to restructure, but who knows how the Bills view White and Dawkins, and whether they could be cap casualties in the upcoming years.  I assume restructures now will negatively impact the cap hits of players released in the future.

Unless he’s a noticeable difference maker - Id be 100% ok cutting or trading Tre White after this season. 
 

White’s 2024 out alleviates any real or perceived cap issues and if we extend Hyde one year to match Poyer, we can draft a corner to go opposite Year 3 Elam, still with the benefit of a vet Safety duo behind them in their rookie year.  

Regarding Dawkins, he’s another down year away from being moved inside to Guard.  

If I’m Beane, I’m not touching those two contracts.  They both need to win their future spots on the team this year. 

Id rather extend Hyde and Jones, then throw in a small draft comp bump for them to pick up the 1-2M we’d still need OR trade Oliver, sign Hopkins, restructure and then see if we can get a 1-2 guys like Calais Campbell, Poona Ford or Justin Houston/Melvin Ingram etc. 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by SCBills

[Buffalo03]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

If only discussions that could change things took place between fans, fan discussion boards would be limited to 145 pages of "Go Bills!"

Give me Dhop and a Super Bowl Chance now. Worry about the rebuild and ramifications later. People that bring up cap don't understand. If we won a Super Bowl this year or next or both, would any of you really give a sh*t about a small rebuild in 5 years? Come on

[Buddo]

The point about having owners with deep pockets, is important.

 

Guarantees on players contracts, have to go into escrow, once the deal is signed. While the amount that guarantee is, is relevant to cap situations, he fact is that money has to be coughed up by ownership.

 

Owners with deep pockets, can afford to throw several hundred million in guarantees into escrow. It isn't so simple as that for all owners.

 

The Bengals would be a good example of this, as would the Raiders, neither of whose owners have large amounts of wealth outside of their franchises.

 

The Bengals are going to have to pay out some substantial guarantees in the not too distant future, particularly to Burrow, and finding the liquidity to put those guarantees into escrow, isn't going to be easy for them.