Will DeAndre Hopkins be available this offseason?

[Ya Digg?]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I would not want to acquire and restructure on a 31 y.o.  WR.  That just creates future cap problems with dead money.

The cap continues to go up, trading for Hopkins doesn’t necessarily create cap problems. Worry about the cap in 2025 or 2026 when the team actually gets to 2025 or 2026

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

I believe there are ways of converting a large portion of his salary to a signing bonus so that you’re not kicking the can down the road too far.  I think a restructured 3 year deal could work if done correctly.  I’m no cap expert though.

Signing bonus does kick can down the road.  Convert his $20M salary to a bonus allows you to spread the cap hit over the length of the remaining contract, but if he retires before end of contract, the unamortized portion hits immediately.

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

The cap continues to go up, trading for Hopkins doesn’t necessarily create cap problems. Worry about the cap in 2025 or 2026 when the team actually gets to 2025 or 2026

Not a good way to plan for the future....

 

"Worry about the money in a few years....".  Sound financial advice right there,LOL.

 

 

 

Our cap for 2024 and 2025 is already horrible, doesn't matter if it increases.  We will still be behind alot of teams, ie: KC and Cincy, with available cap to improve in FA

[SCBills]

Not that I love the idea, but the Bills can conceivably kick the can down the road for the next 10 years until the Allen Era is over and we spend a year resetting our $$$ issues around a rookie QB who doesn’t take up 20% of the cap. 
 

The Jets are literally doing this on an expedited timeline around Rodgers.  Hoping to get 2 years of being a Super Bowl contender and then they will have two years of 20M+ dead cap void years to deal with around a Zach Wilson contract built to absorb it or a rookie who doesn’t cost much.  
 

The Bills issue comes if they restructure Tre White and Dion Dawkins, and they don’t bounce back … and say Von doesn’t return to pre-ACL Von … welp, now you have 3 anchor contracts of guys who aren’t playing remotely to the level you’re paying them - and they’re dead cap is prohibitive to moving off them expeditiously. 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by SCBills

[GolfandBills]

Just now, SCBills said:

Not that I love the idea, but the Bills can conceivably kick the can down the road for the next 10 years until the Allen Era is over and we spend a year resetting our $$$ issues around a rookie QB who doesn’t take up 20% of the cap. 
 

The Jets are literally doing this on an expedited timeline around Rodgers.  Hoping to get 2 years of being a Super Bowl contender and then they will have two years of 20M+ dead cap void years to deal with around a Zach Wilson contract built to absorb it or a rookie who doesn’t cost much.  

As they should with Allen in his prime 

[Ya Digg?]

7 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not a good way to plan for the future....

 

"Worry about the money in a few years....".  Sound financial advice right there,LOL.

 

 

 

Our cap for 2024 and 2025 is already horrible, doesn't matter if it increases.  We will still be behind alot of teams, ie: KC and Cincy, with available cap to improve in FA

Nobody here is an expert at the cap-you’re saying it’s already horrible and others say it’s a move or 2 away from being fine. I trust the guys who actually know the cap and work for the team will figure it out. The Chiefs are not “a lot” better than us in terms of cap-they have done better with rookies though, Cincy has HUGE contracts coming their way with Burrow and Chase, so neither was us really that much better off.

What I do know (and have already stated) is that the cap continues to go up. A problem this year is not necessarily a problem next year or the year after that or the year after that. If it gets the Bills a Super Bowl, I am very much in the camp of not caring if it causes a couple of down years. With Josh, down years will still mean they have a shot 

[Success]

14 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not a good way to plan for the future....

 

"Worry about the money in a few years....".  Sound financial advice right there,LOL.

 

 

 

Our cap for 2024 and 2025 is already horrible, doesn't matter if it increases.  We will still be behind alot of teams, ie: KC and Cincy, with available cap to improve in FA

 

Burrow's contract is likely to be quite a bit more than Allen's.  

 

I suspect our cap will ebb & flow over the years. If we go all in on Hopkins now, we might need 1-2 "recovery" kinds of years, but I'd bet we'd still be able to contend.

 

[ndirish1978]

Too many people here being precious about the cap. Every year we fail to get a SB caliber supporting cast around Josh is another year of prime JA17 wasted, I'm more concerned about that number, since it's finite.

[Chandler#81]

20 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not that I love the idea, but the Bills can conceivably kick the can down the road for the next 10 years until the Allen Era is over and we spend a year resetting our $$$ issues around a rookie QB who doesn’t take up 20% of the cap. 
 

The Jets are literally doing this on an expedited timeline around Rodgers.  Hoping to get 2 years of being a Super Bowl contender and then they will have two years of 20M+ dead cap void years to deal with around a Zach Wilson contract built to absorb it or a rookie who doesn’t cost much.  
 

The Bills issue comes if they restructure Tre White and Dion Dawkins, and they don’t bounce back … and say Von doesn’t return to pre-ACL Von … welp, now you have 3 anchor contracts of guys who aren’t playing remotely to the level you’re paying them - and they’re dead cap is prohibitive to moving off them expeditiously. 

 

I bet you’d guys are a riot at party’s! 😒

47 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not a big fan of trading for Hopkins.  He will be 31 before the season starts, has recently been injured, and was suspended for failing a PED test not long ago.  It’s one thing to acquire an aging star, but his salary and (presumably) cap hit are very high for him.  I would not want to exacerbate the Bills’ tight cap situation with an aging star.  Hopkins salary for 2023 is almost $20M.  If they are willing to take a big cap number on, it should be for someone younger (IMHO).

[wppete]

So the hold up is the compensation? Arizona wants a 2nd and 3rd? That’s a crazy price if true.

[MasterStrategist]

17 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Nobody here is an expert at the cap-you’re saying it’s already horrible and others say it’s a move or 2 away from being fine. I trust the guys who actually know the cap and work for the team will figure it out. The Chiefs are not “a lot” better than us in terms of cap-they have done better with rookies though, Cincy has HUGE contracts coming their way with Burrow and Chase, so neither was us really that much better off.

What I do know (and have already stated) is that the cap continues to go up. A problem this year is not necessarily a problem next year or the year after that or the year after that. If it gets the Bills a Super Bowl, I am very much in the camp of not caring if it causes a couple of down years. With Josh, down years will still mean they have a shot 

It's very easy to understand the basics of cap management and the only available options to fit Hopkins under our current cap, is to restructure more deals (ie: continue to kick the can).

 

What nobody knows:

1. How much future cap will go up

2. How much AZ will retain in Dhops contract, beyond what they are obligated to

 

Everyone keeps saying, "well if it gets us a SB victory...".  Who says Dhop is the missing piece?  What happens if we do this trade and we don't win this yr or next?  

 

It's a risk, and I'm sure Beane and team are weighing that.  

 

And yes, KC is in much better cap shape than us...as is Cincy, even after Burrow/potential Higgins deal for the next 2 seasons.  This is factual math, just go look up the #s and project Burrow/Higgins as top 3 deals at their respective positions.

[Ya Digg?]

4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

It's very easy to understand the basics of cap management and the only available options to fit Hopkins under our current cap, is to restructure more deals (ie: continue to kick the can).

 

What nobody knows:

1. How much future cap will go up

2. How much AZ will retain in Dhops contract, beyond what they are obligated to

 

Everyone keeps saying, "well if it gets us a SB victory...".  Who says Dhop is the missing piece?  What happens if we do this trade and we don't win this yr or next?  

 

It's a risk, and I'm sure Beane and team are weighing that.  

 

And yes, KC is in much better cap shape than us...as is Cincy, even after Burrow/potential Higgins deal for the next 2 seasons.  This is factual math, just go look up the #s and project Burrow/Higgins as top 3 deals at their respective positions.

So explain the simple math to me with KC and the Bengals. Mahomes has a bigger deal than Allen, they are paying Kelce top dollar, same with Jones, their offensive line has a bigger cap hit than the Bills-they aren’t in much better shape. Burrow and Chase are going to be the top paid at their position, period. If they also pay Higgins that’s not leaving them very much either. I’m not trying to come off condescending so I apologize if I do, but this seems like you are using different math for the other contenders than you are for the Bills 

[GolfandBills]

33 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Burrow's contract is likely to be quite a bit more than Allen's.  

 

I suspect our cap will ebb & flow over the years. If we go all in on Hopkins now, we might need 1-2 "recovery" kinds of years, but I'd bet we'd still be able to contend.

 

His will be the highest yet.  Just the way it is 

[TOboy]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

So explain the simple math to me with KC and the Bengals. Mahomes has a bigger deal than Allen, they are paying Kelce top dollar, same with Jones, their offensive line has a bigger cap hit than the Bills-they aren’t in much better shape. Burrow and Chase are going to be the top paid at their position, period. If they also pay Higgins that’s not leaving them very much either. I’m not trying to come off condescending so I apologize if I do, but this seems like you are using different math for the other contenders than you are for the Bills 

I think the Chiefs are in a similar situation to the Bills. We are paying Von, Milano, Tre, Micah, and Poyer. I don’t have the actual numbers but I suspect we spend significantly more on D. Not to mention we’ve kicked cap down the curb a few times already which is impacting us.
 

The Bengals are totally different. The owner won’t buy himself more cap space with restructures. They also have to pay Burrow, Chase, and Tee. They’ll struggle to keep that team together. 
 

At the end of the day, we’ll be fine provided Terry and Kim keep writing huge checks. 

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

It's not your money. Don't worry about it lol

Exactly.

 

Fans worrying about cap.

 

lol

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

https://twitter.com/RyanBuffalo01/status/1639011882099513457341

 

This series of tweets sums it up nicely

 

This thread has gone on so long I've now been fooled twice by the same poster posting the same fake link taking me to the same picture.

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by HappyDays

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

So explain the simple math to me with KC and the Bengals. Mahomes has a bigger deal than Allen, they are paying Kelce top dollar, same with Jones, their offensive line has a bigger cap hit than the Bills-they aren’t in much better shape. Burrow and Chase are going to be the top paid at their position, period. If they also pay Higgins that’s not leaving them very much either. I’m not trying to come off condescending so I apologize if I do, but this seems like you are using different math for the other contenders than you are for the Bills 

I'd recommend going out to Spotrac or another site to look at the #s.  But in summary:

1. Mahomes vs Allen: similar cap hits up thru 2028, but less for Pat. Because KC already took a big hit in 2022

 

2. Rookie contracts: both KC and Cincy have hit on more contributing draft picks.  Yes eventually those deals will come due, but they have more flexibility given we have already restructured several high-cost players that puts us in a "more leveraged position" currently.

 

Being more leveraged, as of now, is exactly what Beane alluded to in his FA presser a week or so back.  He seemed hesitant to do it again, mentioning it would take the right player and situation...but Dhops deal is probably the most expensive option to take on, unless AZ keeps a sizeable portion above their obligation.  

 

I'm just using all available info (cap resources, Beanes comments recently, Beanes psst comments and actions) and making my own logical opinion...it just doesn't seem like a move Beane would make.

[Buffalo03]

17 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Exactly.

 

Fans worrying about cap.

 

lol

I understand we may have to rebuild slightly in 5 years or so but if paying for Hopkins gets you a Super Bowl this year or next, it would ease the burden of the small rebuild. Allen would still be here as well, we wouldn't be completely out of him with him anyway

Edited March 26, 2023 by Buffalo03

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Not that I love the idea, but the Bills can conceivably kick the can down the road for the next 10 years until the Allen Era is over

 

This is exactly what the Saints did in the last few years of Brees' career. Their mistake has been never taking a 1-2 year reset period to get the cap back in shape after Brees retired. But the philosophy never caused them any issues while he was still there.

[jahnyc]

I have a feeling the compensation to Arizona will be the easier part of all this, particularly if they are not going to eat part of Hopkins' salary and if he shows a preference to play for the Bills.  As others have noted, Hopkins will be 31 at the start of this season and has had injuries that have affected his availability over the last couple of years.  Given the cap considerations for any team at this point (after the initial wave of free agency), I doubt there is a robust market for Hopkins at his compensation level and contract structure.

 

The Bills likely have some difficult considerations to work through.   To make this work for the cap, the Bills will need to restructure current players that they may not want to restructure (i.e., Dawkins and White) and/or make trades of players to create cap space (Oliver), which will create new holes.  I would not trade Gabe since he will be an effective third option and given the possibility that Hopkins or Diggs will at miss at least some time with injuries during next season.  

 

Team culture also must be a consideration for the Bills.  If the Bills reach an agreement with Arizona on a trade and fit Hopkins within their cap, what will this mean for their ability to retain their free agents in the next couple of years?  Seems to me it will be very difficult to re-sign Gabe, Hyde and Oliver (assuming the Bills want to).  Some players are going to believe that the team will not be able to re-sign them when their contracts are up, which must have an affect on attitude and team culture.  Also, not sure whether Allen and Diggs have repaired their relationship yet, but adding Hopkins to the mix can only complicate things for Josh.

 

Glad I am not making these decisions.