HOUSE Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, gobills1212 said: Well ya, but if we view Boogie as a disappointment- why would we think he holds any value? I will never understand when people discuss trades and sat 'oh lets give them player x (our junk)' instead of the guy you like. If he hold little value to you, its probably safe to assume he holds little value to them. Except Boogie is not garbage, he is only 25. I wouldn't even trade the guy , lots of players will do better without last years conservative defense, you will be sorry Edited March 24, 2023 by HOUSE 1
Dr. Who Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said: See this is the problem with not actually looking at the #s more closely.... "easy" is not the word to explain it. Our 2024 and 2025 cap situation is already very tight, will get significantly worse by converting a Dhop base salary to bonus....then in 2026 the voided years (which many suggest we do), accelerates to a 1-time dead cap...just when you're suggesting to have Davis' deal kick in. This is then assuming Groot/others will be difficult to afford at that point. Beane is an extraordinarily planned/strategic decision maker. He has these scenarios in front of him and seeing how this puts us in cap hell in a few years. I'm not an expert, but I recall reading that some think the cap is going to escalate significantly in the next few years, partly because certain income streams have not yet been accounted for. 1
The Wiz Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said: true... and Gabe is about to be ready for a new contract, which if he has a great season, will mean huge $$ With diggs and Hopkins I could see Gabe running free a lot.
SCBills Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: See this is the problem with not actually looking at the #s more closely.... "easy" is not the word to explain it. Our 2024 and 2025 cap situation is already very tight, will get significantly worse by converting a Dhop base salary to bonus....then in 2026 the voided years (which many suggest we do), accelerates to a 1-time dead cap...just when you're suggesting to have Davis' deal kick in. This is then assuming Groot/others will be difficult to afford at that point. Beane is an extraordinarily planned/strategic decision maker. He has these scenarios in front of him and seeing how this puts us in cap hell in a few years. You’re assuming we do things like void years etc., I’m not. I never once said that. If we do that, yes, it could signify Davis isn’t in long term plans. Maybe we trade him and draft a WR. If they don’t, and let’s say AZ eats some cap or we trade Oliver to offset cap this year, then yes… we can also structure a Davis contract if we want. Nevermind the cap likely exploding … which is why a team like the Jets is comfortable adding 20-30M dead cap void years to a Rodgers contract. They’ll also restructure Allen again at some point. Edited March 24, 2023 by SCBills
Reed83HOF Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, Dr. Who said: I'm not an expert, but I recall reading that some think the cap is going to escalate significantly in the next few years, partly because certain income streams have not yet been accounted for. Iirc 2025 with new TV contracts kicking in... we need more firepower 1 1
gobills1212 Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, SCBills said: Here’s the thing on these types of players. If the Bills had high grades on guys like Oliver and Basham, so did other scouts/GM’s. You obviously aren’t getting great trade value for them after they’ve been meh during multiple years of their rookie contracts, but if you’re simply looking to unload the cap hit/player for a Day 3 pick … lots of GM’s are willing to throw you a Day 3 to see if a guy they liked a few years ago is a better fit in their scheme or with their coaches. Right, its the ol'low risk, high reward. Thats its own thing and it happens all the time because finding a diamond in the rough with a guy who hasnt lived up to his potential is just how a portion of signings or trades work. That said, this is more in re: fictional trades where its more of a 'we'll give them this' type thing where you replace Gabe or Ed with Boogie. One of those things doesn't belong.
MasterStrategist Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: I'm not an expert, but I recall reading that some think the cap is going to escalate significantly in the next few years, partly because certain income streams have not yet been accounted for. That's only a "guess", certainly not a sure thing. Everyone advocating for this trade should go look at our 2024 and 2025 cap, as it stands now. Spotrac, other sites all have this info. It's not pretty and Beane isn't going to kick the can too much further with certain high-paid players. 1 1
Solomon Grundy Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, gobills1212 said: Well ya, but if we view Boogie as a disappointment- why would we think he holds any value? Some people's trash is another person's treasure, i.e Jerry Hughes
gobills1212 Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, HOUSE said: Except Boogie is not garbage, he is only 25. I wouldn't even trade the guy ,you will be sorry That may be true, and everyone has their own opinion. As of now, he is commonly viewed as a miss by most fans and pundits. Even Joe Marino (who most people seem to respect in the same way they do Sal) mentioned that Boogie and AJ splitting 1k snaps next season is scary and something else will need to be added to that mix. Players will always have their fans. Some people see things others dont. The general consensus however at this point is its a whiff, or at best, hasnt shaped up as hoped.
The Wiz Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 Well played Sal (while talking about Devon Levi practicing for the sabres): 1 1
MasterStrategist Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, SCBills said: You’re assuming we do things like void years etc., I’m not. I never once said that. If we do that, yes, it could signify Davis isn’t in long term plans. Maybe we trade him and draft a WR. If they don’t, and let’s say AZ eats some cap or we trade Oliver to offset cap this year, then yes… we can also structure a Davis contract if we want. Nevermind the cap likely exploding … which is why a team like the Jets is comfortable adding 20-30M dead cap void years to a Rodgers contract. They’ll also restructure Allen again at some point. Again, so many assumptions that aren't all going to happen. I'm all about this team getting better, and Dhop does that, but don't think the cap can be justified. This would be the definition of going "all in", and if it doesn't work, we'd be setting ourselves back fairly significantly in a few years. This would be uncharacteristic of Beane, and the type of move he'll get fired for if it doesn't pan out.
mrags Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: That's only a "guess", certainly not a sure thing. Everyone advocating for this trade should go look at our 2024 and 2025 cap, as it stands now. Spotrac, other sites all have this info. It's not pretty and Beane isn't going to kick the can too much further with certain high-paid players. I think if we were to win a SB none of that matters. We could cut a bunch of people to save money and have a down year if we took home the Lombardi this season. Have one off year and then go back at it. Happens all the time. Look at the Rams last year. And the Bucs of 2020 as recent proof of these trends.
gobills1212 Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Some people's trash is another person's treasure, i.e Jerry Hughes Yes, no doubt. Again, its literally a type of signing or trade GMs rely on each off season when constructing their roster. Having said that, these trades generally go for pennies on the dollar, swaps for players who both need a change of scenery, or add ons to fill voids/depth. Thats very different than the point of my original post where I was making the point that Boogie is not the same as Gabe or Ed and thus cant be just arbitrarily substituted as the person we dont mind giving up so lets just toss him in instead.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 Is Von’s silence about Hopkins a good or bad thing?
mrags Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, MasterStrategist said: Again, so many assumptions that aren't all going to happen. I'm all about this team getting better, and Dhop does that, but don't think the cap can be justified. This would be the definition of going "all in", and if it doesn't work, we'd be setting ourselves back fairly significantly in a few years. This would be uncharacteristic of Beane, and the type of move he'll get fired for if it doesn't pan out. You don’t think he could get fired if he doesn’t get us past the division round of the playoffs? Becoming the team that can’t get over the hump? It’s careless to think Beane doesn’t believe he has to get better or risk losing his job. All NFL coaches and GMs feel this heat. 1
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Is Von’s silence about Hopkins a good or bad thing? He probably got tired of putting his neck out for OBJ
MasterStrategist Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, mrags said: I think if we were to win a SB none of that matters. We could cut a bunch of people to save money and have a down year if we took home the Lombardi this season. Have one off year and then go back at it. Happens all the time. Look at the Rams last year. And the Bucs of 2020 as recent proof of these trends. Big question is "IF. Winning a SB with Dhop isn't some forgone conclusion, yes it improves our chances but by how much? We just dominated on offense most of LY, with a weak OL. Knox recovering from a major tragedy in his fam, losing our reliable slot receiver (no capable replacement), and a rookie OC getting trial by fire. And those teams that you referenced were stacked, in many ways that we aren't. Their missing piece was a QB. They had superstars on defense, very good OLs/etc. If you and others think Dhop is worth the future tradeoff, so be it. I'm not there.
SCBills Posted March 24, 2023 Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: Again, so many assumptions that aren't all going to happen. I'm all about this team getting better, and Dhop does that, but don't think the cap can be justified. This would be the definition of going "all in", and if it doesn't work, we'd be setting ourselves back fairly significantly in a few years. This would be uncharacteristic of Beane, and the type of move he'll get fired for if it doesn't pan out. The cap going up (a lot) and the Bills being able to restructure Allen multiple times are not assumptions.. It will, and they will. If one, or both, don’t happen … it means the league is in trouble (not just us) and something really unexpected happened with Allen. KC is operating based on the cap going up and Mahomes contract being used as a bank. CIN is operating based on the cap going up and will soon have the highest paid QB in the league, along with one or two of the highest paid WR’s. Jets are adding 20M dead cap hits on void years in ‘25 and ‘26 to get, hopefully, two contending years from Rodgers … at which point they will have to figure out QB and pay a lot of good players. Miami is leveraging themselves like there is no tomorrow and then they have to pay Tua or reset at QB. Not just us playing this game … it’s all of our peer contenders. Edited March 24, 2023 by SCBills 4
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