Interesting Stat...Allen led NFL in average air yards past the first down marker on 3rd downs

[JESSEFEFFER]

24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Considering the Bills tied with the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL with KC at 193 this season, I think they did pretty freaking good on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

I love when a weak take gets carpet bombed with facts.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Stat fits the narrative that Josh is trying to make plays downfield most of the time. Even if he needs to get 2 yards he may be trying to get more. Would I like to see him check it down a bit more often? Yes. Not every check down results in a first down but some do. Also any positive yards helps field position and if in FG range makes the kick a bit easier. Also it might set up the possibility of a short 4th down attempt.

We all love Allen's ability to throw the intermediate length pass. I beleive

Allen, Marino, and Rodgers are best in NFL history at the 10-25 yard pass. Its a function of his arm strength and willingness and ability to extend plays. But as we have all seen there are some occasions where a check down is the safer and better play. 

[Fleezoid]

Stats have gone off the charts!

 

[Heavy Kevi]

I've been saying this all year (though without stats to back it up).

 

Watch out for this offense on 3rd and long. They know you are defending the sticks, so Josh likes to go for the long ball and it has largely worked pretty well.

 

Look at the (seems like forever ago) Gabe Davis for 98 yds. It was like 3rd and 14 or something at the 2 and Josh just rifles that ***** out there to Davis and BOOM, 6 points 

[TheFunPolice]

Interesting stat, for sure.

 

Also interesting that the top of that list doesn't exactly read like a who's who of top NFL QBS, although a bunch are also up high on it. 

[teef]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

well...at least you tried!

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Considering the Bills tied with the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL with KC at 193 this season, I think they did pretty freaking good on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

 

"We suck on 1st and 2nd down"

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[34-78-83]

7 minutes ago, Heavy Kevi said:

I've been saying this all year (though without stats to back it up).

 

Watch out for this offense on 3rd and long. They know you are defending the sticks, so Josh likes to go for the long ball and it has largely worked pretty well.

 

Look at the (seems like forever ago) Gabe Davis for 98 yds. It was like 3rd and 14 or something at the 2 and Josh just rifles that ***** out there to Davis and BOOM, 6 points 

You actually came the closest to being right on what this stat means, and it IS indeed significant. Defenses play the sticks hard on 3rd down, knowing that a ton of offenses have routes built in to get right to the sticks, or underneath them with check downs. The Bills have routes designed into the offense that often go 5-10 yards past the sticks, and some even further, and they stress to Josh to hit these if they are open. It gives the offense an advantage vs. the typical coverage in place, and Josh has the cannon to make it happen.

[Cash]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the removal of a reliable slot receiver comfort blanket has had an impact too. Beas in his prime was excellent at getting just past the sticks then sitting down in a zone. That brought the averages down some. Even the plays Isaiah has made this year I don't remember many of that variety.

Agreed.  I would love for Knox to fill that gap to some extent.  The key difference, of course, is that Knox usually catches the ball behind the sticks instead of just past them.  But he's so good at turning upfield immediately and either breaking tackles or at least falling forward 2-3 yards on a consistent basis.  Those are chain movers, too.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, Cash said:

Agreed.  I would love for Knox to fill that gap to some extent.  The key difference, of course, is that Knox usually catches the ball behind the sticks instead of just past them.  But he's so good at turning upfield immediately and either breaking tackles or at least falling forward 2-3 yards on a consistent basis.  Those are chain movers, too.

 

Knox is kept in as a blocker on 3rd down more than I can ever remember to max protect and give Josh more time.

[NickelCity]

An emblematic play happened against the Pats*. I don't think I agree with Josh's decision but i only watched it live. 

 

There was a 3rd down where he hit Diggs on a beautiful sideline pass maybe 15 yards down the field (high degree of difficulty), but a simple check down to an open Cook in the flat looked like the easy/high percentage play to get the 1st. 

 

The stat makes sense given what we've watched this year, for sure. 

[Cash]

On 1/10/2023 at 11:48 AM, Big Turk said:

 

Knox is kept in as a blocker on 3rd down more than I can ever remember to max protect and give Josh more time.

 

True!  And we've seen him have a fair amount of success releasing after the initial block and becoming a checkdown option.  I say let's get more of that, especially on early downs.

[Billz4ever]

On 1/10/2023 at 7:55 AM, Big Turk said:

Led 2nd place Dak Prescott by a full yard...not sure ıf this was intentıonal design or just Allen himself doing it. Allen averaged throwing 5.4 in the air past the first down marker on 3rd down passes this year, far and away the most in the NFL. 

 

This seems to be a Dorsey designed thing as Allen was 13th last year at 2.3 yards and 14th in 2020 at 2.0 yards, whereas Russell Wilson led with 5.5 yards. Allen was ranked 3rd and 4th in 2018 and 2019 with 3.6 and 3.4 respectively, so it appears Daboll reigned him in a little bit in that regard, but Dorsey seems to even be pushing the boundaries with this further, forcing teams to cover well past the first down markers.

Thoughts? 

Makes sense to me.  On all the 3rd down passes for a first, I remember very few that were right at the sticks.  Seems they were always at least a few yards past if not more.

 

Could be by design.  The defense knows were the line to gain is, so if they are potentially looking at receivers making cuts there to pick up the first, they might be getting caught a little off guard when they go past that.

[dakrider]

Something more interesting to me, I was looking on NBCSports stats and top 20 receivers yards-after-catch and no Bills on that list.  Philly, KC, SF and Miami all had 2 players each on it. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

On 1/10/2023 at 8:06 AM, buffaloboyinATL said:

This kind of confirms what I have felt about Allen, without knowing the stats. He often does more than just trying to get just enough for the 1st, he plays with confidence and continues to try and push it down the field.  

Dak is 2nd. 

 

Some times that push will burn... 

[Motorin']

On 1/10/2023 at 9:49 AM, Heavy Kevi said:

I've been saying this all year (though without stats to back it up).

 

Watch out for this offense on 3rd and long. They know you are defending the sticks, so Josh likes to go for the long ball and it has largely worked pretty well.

 

Look at the (seems like forever ago) Gabe Davis for 98 yds. It was like 3rd and 14 or something at the 2 and Josh just rifles that ***** out there to Davis and BOOM, 6 points 

 

Best 3rd down conversation percentage in the NFL this year also. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct