Do we see an end of QB Mega Deals?

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

This exactly - it isn’t changing anytime soon and will only get bigger.

 

The new WR deals means with huge range increases are just a foreshadowing of the new QB deals.  
 

The 4 guys mentioned above and then guys like Allen and Mahomes getting their next deals will all push what the league was worth a few years ago.

 

 

I agree.

What will be different in the future, IMO, are big contracts for players who are not QBs.

 

I think the NFL is learning that all you need is an elite core of maybe 5 or 6 extreme difference makers. 

The rest of the names just need to be around league avg. players.

 

This is why, for example, I would NEVER pay Edmunds what he will want.  Or many other players comparable to him--too far removed from determining wins and losses.

 

Never would have given Von Miller his K either, especially at his age.

 

I think  contracts like THAT will die out.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Supply and demand.  

 

As long as there is a shortage of elite QBs, teams will be forced to pay huge contracts to keep them.

And this is the point, there are only five or eight truly good “franchise QBs” in the league in any given year, and something around ten others who are “good”, the rest of them (half of the league give or take) are never ever gonna amount to more than being the dreaded “game manager” types, what ever that really means, (they suck) so the question is; why are teams knowingly paying huge money to mediocre talents at QB? first world problems I guess…, 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Although, the kids in college may be the reason why we no longer see the mega deals…

The kids in college will improve and there will be more.  If you think QBs are going to start getting worse over time, I disagree.  They’re only getting better and better.  See Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence.  

[appoo]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Nope.  They’ll get paid.  Herbert, Burrow and Hurts are about to break the bank. Then lawrence.  Then the kids in college.  

Before I pay Hurts that kind of money I need more surety he can operate at a high level with mostly average talent around him, or need great talent (like he has now) around him to be great. 
 

Because once you’re paying him 40-50M he’ll be expected to raise up averahe talent like Allen and Mahomes do

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, appoo said:

Before I pay Hurts that kind of money I need more surety he can operate at a high level with mostly average talent around him, or need great talent (like he has now) around him to be great. 
 

Because once you’re paying him 40-50M he’ll be expected to raise up averahe talent like Allen and Mahomes do

If you were Roseman, you’d have one more year to figure that out.  

[mannc]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

If you were Roseman, you’d have one more year to figure that out.  

What's the advantage of extending Burrow or Herbert this offseason instead of next?  Locking in your price now?  And since Hurts wasn't a first round pick, isn't he only on a four-year deal? 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, mannc said:

What's the advantage of extending Burrow or Herbert this offseason instead of next?  Locking in your price now?  And since Hurts wasn't a first round pick, isn't he only on a four-year deal? 

The advantage is having a very happy QB.  They’d still play under the 5th year option.  The contract will start the following year- no matter what. The longer you wait, the more you will pay for Burrow and Herbert.  For QBs that have more question marks regarding their qb ability, it MAY make sense to wait (we’ll see about Lamar), but likely will only cost you more.  
 

Yes, Hurts is on a 4 year deal.  No 5th year for him, but if they aren’t sure about him and don’t want to commit, they can franchise him.  Herbert and Burrow can be franchised too….but there are no doubts about them.  They will be the #1 and #2 highest paid very soon imo. Franchising then would just be stupid.  

Edited January 9, 2023 by NewEra

[Nephilim17]

I want to see Burrow and others get paid as much as possible — it means less capital to keep/improve the competition, especially as we have our QB locked up.

 

But I agree that some teams will be wary about guaranteed money. It won't go away but it may be lessened for some QBs.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

The kids in college will improve and there will be more.  If you think QBs are going to start getting worse over time, I disagree.  They’re only getting better and better.  See Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence.  

 

Yep, these guys have been in camps and 7 on 7’s since middle school. They’ve thrown thousands of passes and studied hours of film….before high school often! They will just keep getting better and better, but there will still be a wide range.

 

The QB used to be the big statue with an arm. Now it’s often the most athletic kid in school, shared with WR. It used to be the RB was your stud. No more.  My, how times have changed! 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Yep, these guys have been in camps and 7 on 7’s since middle school. They’ve thrown thousands of passes and studied hours of film….before high school often! They will just keep getting better and better, but there will still be a wide range.

 

The QB used to be the big statue with an arm. Now it’s often the most athletic kid in school, shared with WR. It used to be the RB was your stud. No more.  My, how times have changed! 

Yeah, even the non athletic kids are impressive.  My buddies son is 13 and has had a qb coach since he was 8.  He makes some outstanding throws.  Not super athletic but he puts in work. Parents are spending more money than ever on top notch coaching year round.  
 

It’s unlikely the qb position ever gets worse.  Like you said, the most athletic kids are now putting their time and effort into playing QB. Add that to the additional coaching and technology available now.  The QBs will only be getting better with time.

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, even the non athletic kids are impressive.  My buddies son is 13 and has had a qb coach since he was 8.  He makes some outstanding throws.  Not super athletic but he puts in work. Parents are spending more money than ever on top notch coaching year round.  
 

It’s unlikely the qb position ever gets worse.  Like you said, the most athletic kids are now putting their time and effort into playing QB. Add that to the additional coaching and technology available now.  The QBs will only be getting better with time.

 

I think the same is true for WR’s. If you are the best (normal size) athlete in school, you’re almost certainly at one of these two positions, and probably playing some DB as well. Most likely the captain of the basketball team, too.  

 

We were repeatedly told our son had to play baseball year round in Florida. “He’ll fall behind!” Nope! They all wanted him back every season, and he benefitted from a playing a bunch of other sports which made him more balanced and better at everything. Soccer is great for feet, especially big guys, but that’s another story. 

[Kirby Jackson]

4 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I want to start off with this disclaimer: I am very happy with Josh Allen's deal. I think Beane did an excellent job structuring a deal that kept the best quarterback the Bills have had in a generation locked up through his prime, with meat on the bone for cap maneuvers.

 

Since then, however, we keep seeing deals that make Beane's (already praised at the time) work look even savvier. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as 5th and 6th on average cap hit per year. 

 

In the meanwhile, Green Bay went back to the well on Aaron Rodgers, paying him the most per year out of every QB. Rodgers has looked nowhere near his prime, is considering retirement and now the Pack is in terrible cap shape while veterans are likely to walk.

 

#2 is Russel Wilson, who cost the Broncos multiple 1st round picks to be a laughingstock.

 

#3 is Kyler Murray, who just got college head coach was just fired. He is locked in for at least two more years (after which it's only a $33 million cap hit), while he is coming off of an ACL injury...where is greatest strength has been running and throwing on the run.

 

#4 is Watson, who shouldn't have been back in the league. His money is fully guaranteed, and is going to be a $55 million hit every year for the next four years. As we saw with the Browns, they have a looooot of problems and Watson returning was not a magic pill. Only one player is going to be 20% of their cap.

And that's not even counting Matt Stafford. The Rams pushed all of their chips to the pile last year and I'd be lying if I said I thought their devil's bargain wasn't worth it, but they are going to be paying a butcher's bill for the next few seasons.

 

I understand that the QB position's importance. I understand that starting quality QB play is going to be overpaid but these four QBs are now liabilities for their teams, and in some cases the damage is going to take years to unravel. This was not "Let me overpay for Brock Osweiler they can be good enough" thinking, these players were supposed to transform the franchise.

 

Does this change how teams think of contracts? I don't know. But it's interesting to think about.

I don’t think so. If I asked you the 6 best AFC QBs (with an asterisk for Watson), you’d probably answer the 6 QBs in the playoffs. The same holds true (to a lesser extent) in the NFC. You’re just going to have to be right. If you extend a Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott, you need to get the best version of them. You’re much better off though, paying Kirk Cousins, than saving the money and trying to find someone comparable. Geno is the exception to this and he’s about to get paid. 

[Southern_Bills]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think right now the battle is about guaranteed money. I think we’ll continue seeing the big contracts, the question is will they be mostly guaranteed.

 

 

 

I fully agree with this. 

 

My question is, when will players start taking less overall money to get the contract fully guaranteed?

 

I mean 215M fully guaranteed is better than 275M with 175M guaranteed IMO.

 

Should be interesting to watch the battle unfold. I honestly with they would raise the vet minimum as those are the guys getting the shaft.

 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I want to start off with this disclaimer: I am very happy with Josh Allen's deal. I think Beane did an excellent job structuring a deal that kept the best quarterback the Bills have had in a generation locked up through his prime, with meat on the bone for cap maneuvers.

 

Since then, however, we keep seeing deals that make Beane's (already praised at the time) work look even savvier. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as 5th and 6th on average cap hit per year. 

 

In the meanwhile, Green Bay went back to the well on Aaron Rodgers, paying him the most per year out of every QB. Rodgers has looked nowhere near his prime, is considering retirement and now the Pack is in terrible cap shape while veterans are likely to walk.

 

#2 is Russel Wilson, who cost the Broncos multiple 1st round picks to be a laughingstock.

 

#3 is Kyler Murray, who just got college head coach was just fired. He is locked in for at least two more years (after which it's only a $33 million cap hit), while he is coming off of an ACL injury...where is greatest strength has been running and throwing on the run.

 

#4 is Watson, who shouldn't have been back in the league. His money is fully guaranteed, and is going to be a $55 million hit every year for the next four years. As we saw with the Browns, they have a looooot of problems and Watson returning was not a magic pill. Only one player is going to be 20% of their cap.

And that's not even counting Matt Stafford. The Rams pushed all of their chips to the pile last year and I'd be lying if I said I thought their devil's bargain wasn't worth it, but they are going to be paying a butcher's bill for the next few seasons.

 

I understand that the QB position's importance. I understand that starting quality QB play is going to be overpaid but these four QBs are now liabilities for their teams, and in some cases the damage is going to take years to unravel. This was not "Let me overpay for Brock Osweiler they can be good enough" thinking, these players were supposed to transform the franchise.

 

Does this change how teams think of contracts? I don't know. But it's interesting to think about.

 

Depends on if considering injury:

 

or bad play:

 

the consensus on both of these previous threads on this topic appears to be "no"

[TheyCallMeAndy]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

The kids in college will improve and there will be more.  If you think QBs are going to start getting worse over time, I disagree.  They’re only getting better and better.  See Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence.  

No no, I meant since they are getting paid in college, maybe they’ll take cheaper pro deals.

 

Probably not, but it’s a good thought

[Virgil]

27 minutes ago, special-teams said:

I believe League GM's will calm down with the huge QB contracts.  

 

So long as you have desperate teams out there like the Browns, you'll always have an owner who will do something dumb to get an advantage.  Think about the Raiders, Dolphins, Cowboys, Texans, Cardinals, Browns....

 

All teams that will just be desperate.  I was proud of the Falcons and Saints for not caving to Watson's demands and letting the Browns take that bullet

[dhgold]

Bad organizations e.g. Cardinals will continue to sign bad contracts, good teams e.g. Ravens will be more cautious. Desperate teams e.g. Browns will make desperate moves.

[JohnNord]

6 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think right now the battle is about guaranteed money. I think we’ll continue seeing the big contracts, the question is will they be mostly guaranteed.

 

 

Jimmy Haslam and Cleveland completely screwed over the other 31 NFL teams with the guaranteed money they gave Watson.

 

The problem is, that deal is now precedent.  It’s like when someone grossly over-pays for a house in a neighborhood in a high demand area, in most cases that inflates real estate of other homes in the area.  
 

The league owners want Watson’s deal to be viewed as an outlier, but the NFLPA, agents, and of course the players won’t see it that way.  
 

It appears that guaranteed money is the sticking point with Baltimore and Lamar.  You can bet your arse it’s going to be a topic with Joe Burrow this off-season..maybe Justin Herbs too.  These contracts will likely determine about the future of QB contracts.

 

Like with Allen a few years back, it’s laughable to think these QB’s are going to take a “hometown discount” and ignore the deal that was given to Watson.  

 

Either way the QB contract is going to up.  Teams are just going to have to be more comfortable with eating dead cap space if it doesn’t work out.  High risk…high reward.

Edited January 10, 2023 by JohnNord

[CoudyBills]

14 hours ago, NewEra said:

The kids in college will improve and there will be more.  If you think QBs are going to start getting worse over time, I disagree.  They’re only getting better and better.  See Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence.  

Any opinion on this era being the easiest era to play QB in the NFL?  

[Matt_In_NH]

No