Do we see an end of QB Mega Deals?

[BillsFanSD]

Guys like Allen, Mahomes, and Burrow will continue to out-perform their contracts, no matter how expensive top-shelf QBs get.  They're worth every penny.

 

The problem with Wilson, Watson, Rodgers, Murray, etc. isn't that that their teams payed big money.  It's that they paid top-shelf prices for players who aren't top-shelf talent.  (Rodgers used to be, but not now).  Overpaying for so-so players is always bad.  It's just more noticeable and the dollar figures are bigger when we're talking about the QB position.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

The QB market sets itself due to scarcity.  There are realistically about 20 QBs in the NFL that can get a team to the playoffs without a stellar defense and if you don't have one of them then you're on a path to getting yourself and your entire staff fired.  

[WhoTom]

11 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

Rodgers was coming off back to back MVP years - i don't know that you can let him walk.  

 

Yeah, there were in a bind, but when he demanded so much money that they couldn't keep Davante Adams - which means they had no shot at attracting a good FA replacement - then they really should have let him go. They could have traded him to a QB-hungry AFC team, gotten a 1st-round pick, and had enough money to rebuild.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

Supply and demand.  

 

As long as there is a shortage of elite QBs, teams will be forced to pay huge contracts to keep them.

I mean, I get that, but in the examples I gave they are contacts given out to veterans. Stafford and Wilson were traded for, and then paid a pile of money. Watson was given 100% guaranteed money.

 

Does this swing the pendulum back to paying a premium to roll the dice on a draft pick?

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

JA's contract is going to look like a deal and a half in the next few years. 

 

If Lamar doesn't stay with Baltimore, I think some poor soul will back the Brinks truck up to his house.

[MJS]

Just now, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I mean, I get that, but in the examples I gave they are contacts given out to veterans. Stafford and Wilson were traded for, and then paid a pile of money. Watson was given 100% guaranteed money.

 

Does this swing the pendulum back to paying a premium to roll the dice on a draft pick?

Dumb teams will continue to do dumb things. They make desperate moves and will continue to do so.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

54 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

But will Lamar get a deal ? 

Yes. And he’ll be the highest paid QB in the NFL until Burrow signs.

[Seventeen]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Yes. And he’ll be the highest paid QB in the NFL until Burrow signs.

 

Question is who will pay him - Ravens, Ravens on a franchise, or some other team as a FA, i.e. Jets

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Nope.  They’ll get paid.  Herbert, Burrow and Hurts are about to break the bank. Then lawrence.  Then the kids in college.  

Although, the kids in college may be the reason why we no longer see the mega deals…

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

 

Question is who will pay him - Ravens, Ravens on a franchise, or some other team as a FA, i.e. Jets

Ravens will fold.

[BillyBilliams]

55 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

Herbert and Burrow are going to want to be the highest paid QBs in the league.  If the Chargers and/or Bengals are unwilling to do it, someone will.  

 

Lamar, IMO will not get into that stratosphere, but he can get paid handsomely and will.

 

He absolutely will get paid in that stratosphere.  Burrow has a Super Bowl, but Jackson has a League MVP, and it was unanimous. 

[GunnerBill]

Not. A. Chance. 

 

Next topic.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Nope.  They’ll get paid.  Herbert, Burrow and Hurts are about to break the bank. Then lawrence.  Then the kids in college.  

Lamar will break the bank as well. Even if not with Baltimore.  Jets radio is foaming out the mouth for Lamar. 

[Albany,n.y.]

The guys in their mid 20s on rookie deals -Burrow, Herbert and Lawrence will get paid. Jackson & Tua are question marks due to injuries the past 2 years. If the greatest ability is availability, if I was running a team & someone else wanted to pay either one of these guys, I'd say sayonara. 

 

Rodgers 39, Wilson 34, Stafford 34 have a ton of mileage on them.  Wilson & Stafford were traded by teams who didn't want to give a high mileage QB another extension and fleeced a trade partner, although in Stafford's case the Rams got a Super Bowl win, but they're starting to look like the last Raiders Super Bowl team that lost to Tampa and fell off the face of the earth.  

 

Murray is a unique case of a guy who didn't approach anything near elite, but had the team over a barrel because he was refusing to play without a new contract & could threaten to quit football & go play baseball.  He used his status as a #1 overall pick to strongarm the Cards, which based on how bad the Cards were this year, they should have called his bluff, and planned to get a new QB in this year's draft. Instead they have a QB rehabbing his injury with insane dead cap #s the next 2 years.    

 

Putting his off field stuff aside, who knows what Watson will be with the rust off.  He missed over a season & a half.  It's too early for Cleveland to know what they got in the trade for Watson.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloBill]

46 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

The QB market sets itself due to scarcity.  There are realistically about 20 QBs in the NFL that can get a team to the playoffs without a stellar defense and if you don't have one of them then you're on a path to getting yourself and your entire staff fired.  

20 is high . Try maybe 3 in a top tier - guys who can out a team on their back and take it to at least the playoffs with a half decent (but not stellar) surrounding cast) Then 4 a notch or two below who need to be with a surrounding cast to be a winner. 

 

If you are a GM who gets prick of the litter you waste no time outside of getting one of the top 3.

 

You take without thinking:

1. Mahomes (he gets the nod for #1 because he has a ring)

2. Allen

3. Burrow

 

You think about:

4. Jalen Hurts (rising)

5. Justin Herbert (falling)

6. Dak Prescott (falling)

7. Lamar Alexander (falling)

 

You maybe bridge until the “young guy” gets ready:

7. Tom Brady (falling - hard)

8. Aaron Rogers (falling - hard)

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

I wanna see an end of mega deals to whiny under producing qbs not worth what they're asking. 

[Fleezoid]

1 hour ago, Seventeen said:

But will Lamar get a deal ? 

 

Peter King mentioned in his article the Ravens should franchise him for 2023 to see how that plays out. From an injury standpoint alone, I wouldn't give him a big contract until I knew he could get through an entire season, or almost an entire season. He's missed 5 games in each of his last 2 seasons. 

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I want to start off with this disclaimer: I am very happy with Josh Allen's deal. I think Beane did an excellent job structuring a deal that kept the best quarterback the Bills have had in a generation locked up through his prime, with meat on the bone for cap maneuvers.

 

Since then, however, we keep seeing deals that make Beane's (already praised at the time) work look even savvier. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as 5th and 6th on average cap hit per year. 

 

In the meanwhile, Green Bay went back to the well on Aaron Rodgers, paying him the most per year out of every QB. Rodgers has looked nowhere near his prime, is considering retirement and now the Pack is in terrible cap shape while veterans are likely to walk.

 

#2 is Russel Wilson, who cost the Broncos multiple 1st round picks to be a laughingstock.

 

#3 is Kyler Murray, who just got college head coach was just fired. He is locked in for at least two more years (after which it's only a $33 million cap hit), while he is coming off of an ACL injury...where is greatest strength has been running and throwing on the run.

 

#4 is Watson, who shouldn't have been back in the league. His money is fully guaranteed, and is going to be a $55 million hit every year for the next four years. As we saw with the Browns, they have a looooot of problems and Watson returning was not a magic pill. Only one player is going to be 20% of their cap.

And that's not even counting Matt Stafford. The Rams pushed all of their chips to the pile last year and I'd be lying if I said I thought their devil's bargain wasn't worth it, but they are going to be paying a butcher's bill for the next few seasons.

 

I understand that the QB position's importance. I understand that starting quality QB play is going to be overpaid but these four QBs are now liabilities for their teams, and in some cases the damage is going to take years to unravel. This was not "Let me overpay for Brock Osweiler they can be good enough" thinking, these players were supposed to transform the franchise.

 

Does this change how teams think of contracts? I don't know. But it's interesting to think about.

Short answer is NO, for the simple reason if you win 1 Lombardi it makes the deal worth it.  

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

The QB market sets itself due to scarcity.  There are realistically about 20 QBs in the NFL that can get a team to the playoffs without a stellar defense and if you don't have one of them then you're on a path to getting yourself and your entire staff fired.  

I think your number is about double of what it truly is NOW.. 

 

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Burrows

 

are definite!

 

after that you have:

 

Rogers, Brady, and perhaps Lamar Jackson.

 

these last 3 are questionable for mostly age, and well Jackson seems very injury prone.

 

After that be hard press find 1. 

[skibum]

It helps when the QB in question is willing to take the most team-friendly deal the NFLPA will allow (which is still a boatload of money). I think that's pretty much what Josh did. He could have easily demanded to be the highest paid QB in the league, but he didn't.

 

It seems like there are always about 7-8 QBs that qualify for that scenario, by virtue of being more or less irreplaceable. But even a 'team friendly' stud QB contract is going to be a crippler for some teams.