Do we see an end of QB Mega Deals?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I want to start off with this disclaimer: I am very happy with Josh Allen's deal. I think Beane did an excellent job structuring a deal that kept the best quarterback the Bills have had in a generation locked up through his prime, with meat on the bone for cap maneuvers.

 

Since then, however, we keep seeing deals that make Beane's (already praised at the time) work look even savvier. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as 5th and 6th on average cap hit per year. 

 

In the meanwhile, Green Bay went back to the well on Aaron Rodgers, paying him the most per year out of every QB. Rodgers has looked nowhere near his prime, is considering retirement and now the Pack is in terrible cap shape while veterans are likely to walk.

 

#2 is Russel Wilson, who cost the Broncos multiple 1st round picks to be a laughingstock.

 

#3 is Kyler Murray, who just got college head coach was just fired. He is locked in for at least two more years (after which it's only a $33 million cap hit), while he is coming off of an ACL injury...where is greatest strength has been running and throwing on the run.

 

#4 is Watson, who shouldn't have been back in the league. His money is fully guaranteed, and is going to be a $55 million hit every year for the next four years. As we saw with the Browns, they have a looooot of problems and Watson returning was not a magic pill. Only one player is going to be 20% of their cap.

And that's not even counting Matt Stafford. The Rams pushed all of their chips to the pile last year and I'd be lying if I said I thought their devil's bargain wasn't worth it, but they are going to be paying a butcher's bill for the next few seasons.

 

I understand that the QB position's importance. I understand that starting quality QB play is going to be overpaid but these four QBs are now liabilities for their teams, and in some cases the damage is going to take years to unravel. This was not "Let me overpay for Brock Osweiler they can be good enough" thinking, these players were supposed to transform the franchise.

 

Does this change how teams think of contracts? I don't know. But it's interesting to think about.

[NewEra]

Nope.  They’ll get paid.  Herbert, Burrow and Hurts are about to break the bank. Then lawrence.  Then the kids in college.  

[mannc]

Cincinnati and LA are going to make Burrow and Herbert near-billionaires this offseason, so no, it's not the end of the QB mega-deal.  I think what should be endangered though, are deals where teams trade massive draft capital and a give a huge new contract to a QB that another franchise did not want to extend. (Lamar Jackson?) 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think right now the battle is about guaranteed money. I think we’ll continue seeing the big contracts, the question is will they be mostly guaranteed.

 

 

[Virgil]

Watson is the only one that created a problem, but even that is perspective based.

 

Allen and Mahomes deals will essentially be guaranteed barring injury or early retirement.  Neither are being cut and will see all of their money.  Any QB who doesn't fail horribly is too valuable to be let go, and typically gets their money.

 

Wilson's deal was just poor evaluation, but a deal that most teams would have given him.

 

Murray's deal was terrible to me, and I think to many at the time.  They don't deserve and out clause.

 

The Packers were idiots to give Rodgers that much money at his age and it may really bite them in the ass.

 

I expect to see the trend on deals to look more like Allen and Mahomes, but they yearly average to be in the 50's.  Herbert and Burrow will prove that possibly this offseason

[Einstein]

The Patrick Mahomes deal.... The Chiefs robbed him. They really did.

 

Or maybe Mahomes just decided to give them a great deal.

 

TEN YEARS ... ten years to spread out the hits and move money around and restructure. 

 

You can read more about what they did here: https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/kansas-city-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-contract-restructuring-breakdown

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Nope. Its all a matter of who is up next. Allen got paid slightly less than Mahomes because Mahomes had a ring already. Burrow has been to a SuperBowl.  He will get a massive deal.

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Nope.  They’ll get paid.  Herbert, Burrow and Hurts are about to break the bank. Then lawrence.  Then the kids in college.  

 

This exactly - it isn’t changing anytime soon and will only get bigger.

 

The new WR deals means with huge range increases are just a foreshadowing of the new QB deals.  
 

The 4 guys mentioned above and then guys like Allen and Mahomes getting their next deals will all push what the league was worth a few years ago.

 

 

[Seventeen]

But will Lamar get a deal ? 

[BuffaloBills1998]

11 minutes ago, mannc said:

Cincinnati and LA are going to make Burrow and Herbert near-billionaires this offseason, so no, it's not the end of the QB mega-deal.  I think what should be endangered though, are deals where teams trade massive draft capital and a give a huge new contract to a QB that another franchise did not want to extend. (Lamar Jackson?) 

I guess you could add Russell alongside Jackson

Just now, Seventeen said:

But will Lamar get a deal ? 

In Baltimore I highly doubt it. I can see him being tagged and then traded. One of the teams he wants to go to is Miami since his family lives in Florida. He liked a picture that fan made of him in a Dolphins uniform. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The Patrick Mahomes deal.... The Chiefs robbed him. They really did.

 

Or maybe Mahomes just decided to give them a great deal.

 

TEN YEARS ... ten years to spread out the hits and move money around and restructure. 

 

You can read more about what they did here: https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/kansas-city-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-contract-restructuring-breakdown

Yeah he and Allen are in very team friendly deals

[ddaryl]

the most imprtant position in the game is not going to get any cheaper. Locking up a top QB early actually saves a team mega $$$$...

its a case damned if you do and damned if you don't, and hope for the best.

[ticketssince61]

Teams just have to be smarter to whom they dole out the big bucks

 

For players for whom the jury is still out they should wait until the 5th year and/or use the franchise tag (e.g. Murray)

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Watson is the only one that created a problem, but even that is perspective based.

 

Allen and Mahomes deals will essentially be guaranteed barring injury or early retirement.  Neither are being cut and will see all of their money.  Any QB who doesn't fail horribly is too valuable to be let go, and typically gets their money.

 

Wilson's deal was just poor evaluation, but a deal that most teams would have given him.

 

Murray's deal was terrible to me, and I think to many at the time.  They don't deserve and out clause.

 

The Packers were idiots to give Rodgers that much money at his age and it may really bite them in the ass.

 

I expect to see the trend on deals to look more like Allen and Mahomes, but they yearly average to be in the 50's.  Herbert and Burrow will prove that possibly this offseason

 

Wilson and the broncos need to get the HC situation right, because hackett let distractions reign free and basically destroyed the team from inside the locker room.  You're married to Wilson for at least 2 more years.  While i think it was an overpay (namely due to the fact that you paid him to be top 3-5 despite him almost universally in that 5-10 range his entire career), he is still capable of good football.  

 

Murray got his bag, and i think you will see that contract age pretty poorly.  Watson is the browns problem now, and i just don't see him having a career renaissance after a year away, and a disaster of a quarter season he played.  

 

Rodgers was coming off back to back MVP years - i don't know that you can let him walk.  

[Augie]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Nope.  They’ll get paid.  Herbert, Burrow and Hurts are about to break the bank. Then lawrence.  Then the kids in college.  

 

I don’t mind the dollar figures as much as I hate all the guaranteed money. It’s the most important position in sports. You can’t afford to pay guys who are not producing. What incentive does DeShaun Watson have to be his best. Is that just up to his high moral character? No thanks. Where is the punchable face thread when you need it? Has Haslam been mentioned???

[nucci]

Cap will continue to go up and so will the contracts

[B-Large]

I'd give another season before you can be sure on #2- Broncos had the most players in the league on IR, and we're starting JAGs on line this season at some points.

 

Also, they fired Hackett- every Bills fans knows what that means, that team will get better simple with that move.

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

Assuredly not.  The deals can be structured in a way that promotes maximum cap flexibility while also protecting the team against the ever rising QB costs year over year.

[mjt328]

Supply and demand.  

 

As long as there is a shortage of elite QBs, teams will be forced to pay huge contracts to keep them.

[May Day 10]

Herbert and Burrow are going to want to be the highest paid QBs in the league.  If the Chargers and/or Bengals are unwilling to do it, someone will.  

 

Lamar, IMO will not get into that stratosphere, but he can get paid handsomely and will.