final DVOA stats up - Bills #1 overall

[gjv]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted,this stat is called VOA.

 

DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

Thanks, I appreciate the time you spent helping me.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Have they though?  Even the Eagles had 8 one score games and had a fairly soft schedule.  KC has looked just as sloppy as we have.  Who are the handfuls of teams that are more dominant and have convincing stretches in your opinion.  I have not watched every game but I dont see this dominance from anyone really.  I would say the Eagles were the closest but they arent blowing people out.  Maybe we have a different idea of what dominant means.

 

Some of this is also about who you play, where you play them and when. Miami for instance was pretty hot but they played mostly fodder for a long stretch and they werent dominant in those games either.

 

 

Yes they have............the Eagles got out to a 13-1 start..........and the Niners are on the NFL's longest current win streak and are smacking the sh!t out of teams and dominating them with a 7th round rookie at QB.      

 

Those teams have had more impressive, convincing stretches of regular season performances than the Bills best runs which were early and late in the season(around their annual midseason malaise).

 

But the Chiefs had won like 11 of 12 going into the AFCCG last year.........and lost.    And the Packers had a much better regular season than the Rams in 2021.......and lost in the divisional round.    Hence my point.   4 seeds have won each of the last 2 SB's.  

[Dopey]

20 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

All the advanced team metrics love Bills DVOA, SRS, FPI, 538. The eye test hasn't been passed lately.

[colin]

i think we are a slightly above average WR2 and or WR3 from absolutely waltzing to the number 1 seed.

 

mckenzie not being in position to get out of bounds vs miami, ball bouncing off of davis' chest after a 68 yard frozen rope from JA17, and a few opportunities to score vs Minni.

 

so the good part we have a pretty monster team which is ready to ball, the bad part is the sloppiness and lack of threat outside of diggs still exists.

 

the solution is to have a couple new looks on O allowing us to run our favorite plays, and to take some better advantage of play action w our vastly improved run game.  i think cook and hines are the real elements that we didn't have last season and they could help us get ahead of teams (like we have in all but 3 games this season) so we can win the game controlling the ball (and the 3 games we lost, we had the ball and coulda iced it if it went our way late) on the last drive.

 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes they have............the Eagles got out to a 13-1 start..........and the Niners are on the NFL's longest current win streak and are smacking the sh!t out of teams and dominating them with a 7th round rookie at QB.      

 

Those teams have had more impressive, convincing stretches of regular season performances than the Bills best runs which were early and late in the season(around their annual midseason malaise).

 

But the Chiefs had won like 11 of 12 going into the AFCCG last year.........and lost.    And the Packers had a much better regular season than the Rams in 2021.......and lost in the divisional round.    Hence my point.   4 seeds have won each of the last 2 SB's.  

 

Im not talking about winning streaks.  Im talking about domination.  I will give you the 49ers.  They have been pretty dominating but they also have played alot of mediocre teams on that stretch.

 

You are talking about win streaks here.  I get your point but the point I was making is that even teams like the Chiefs and Bengals have had sloppy play in their wins just like the Bills have had.

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs but I think thats what you are saying too.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Scott7975

[NickelCity]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im not talking about winning streaks.  Im talking about domination.  I will give you the 49ers.  They have been pretty dominating but they also have played alot of mediocre teams on that stretch.

 

You are talking about win streaks here.  I get your point but the point I was making is that even teams like the Chiefs and Bengals have had sloppy play in their wins just like the Bills have had.

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs but I think thats what you are saying too.

 

I don't want anything to do with the 49ers

[Scott7975]

Just now, NickelCity said:

 

I don't want anything to do with the 49ers

 

The Bills beat them last season and they were good then too. However, that is the team I would like to see least in the SB as well.

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills beat them last season and they were good then too. However, that is the team I would like to see least in the SB as well.

They beat them in 2020 and SF was devastated by injury. They started Nick Mullins and a ton of guys were out on defense, including Bosa. The Bills won 34-24 but were up 34-17 with less than a minute to go. The Niners scored a garbage time TD in the last minute.

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They beat them in 2020 and SF was devastated by injury. They started Nick Mullins and a ton of guys were out on defense, including Bosa. The Bills won 34-24 but were up 34-17 with less than a minute to go. The Niners scored a garbage time TD in the last minute.

 

All I remember is a bunch of people here never gave us a chance in that game.  Much like they do for a lot of games.