msw2112 Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ta111 said: Bills had 6 losses last year and only 3 this year. They haven’t regressed. There is a lot of recency bias going on. The point of the post was to say that they have NOT regressed, despite the appearance that they have. They beat the Patroits in January 2022 by 30 points, scoring on every possession (in a playoff game). They only beat the Patriots in January 2023 by 12 points (in an important regular season game), with a number of punts and turnovers. I'm not going back to look at the numbers on these, but it's safe to say that they beat the Jets and Dolphins a whole lot more comfortably last season than this season. So they appear to have regressed, but overall, it's more accurate to say that the other teams have improved and not that the Bills have regressed. Perhaps they will benefit in the playoffs from having learned how to win close games, and having learned how to win against more challenging opponents. Quote
K D Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Now let's be honest with ourselves. If we saw there was a team with those numbers we would say "that team should win the super bowl." Let's revisit this thread ina few weeks and consider if we lived up to these expectations or if we underperformed Quote
balln Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 3 hours ago, HOUSE said: Wow, the #1 team doesn't even get a bye Very suspicious . Think it’s explained by strength of schedule. Bills had 4 hardest Quote
Magox Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 @Chaos What's lame is that you didn't know this information that is readily available for anyone willing to do just a few seconds of research. Luckily for you, you can find it in this thread. 1 Quote
dave mcbride Posted January 9, 2023 Author Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, gjv said: What is DVOA? https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted,this stat is called VOA. DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA. Edited January 9, 2023 by dave mcbride Quote
Scott7975 Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 3 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: All the advanced team metrics love Bills DVOA, SRS, FPI, 538. The eye test hasn't been passed lately. This is because you are not using the same lense if and when you watch other teams. Even KC has struggled in a lot of games this year. 1 Quote
BearNorth Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Idk the formula but we are the best on third down and we are second in ypg and ppg. We scored less than 20 once all season and that was because our entire offensive line was injured lol DVOA factors in opponents and we’ve got two division rivals with really tough defenses to score on We also played Detroit, Minny & Chicago - 3 of the 4 lowest ranked defenses. Quote
Gugny Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 4 hours ago, psuscott16 said: I think this team has figure out how to win, even if it's ugly. Two teams in the NFL won more games and the Bills only played 16 games. I think they've figured out how to win. Quote
Dr. Who Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gugny said: Two teams in the NFL won more games and the Bills only played 16 games. I think they've figured out how to win. You implicitly corrected to "this team has (to) figure out how to win," but from the context of the whole, the post intends "this team has figure(d) out how to win, even if it's ugly." Quote
Gugny Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, Dr. Who said: You implicitly corrected to "this team has (to) figure out how to win," but from the context of the whole, the post intends "this team has figure(d) out how to win, even if it's ugly." I had to read it two more times! Nice catch! 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) I find PFF's results surprising. The Bills just haven't looked like a dominant team in the second of the season. Too many inconsistent performances at too many position groups. Then again, every team this year has weaknesses. Edited January 9, 2023 by hondo in seattle Quote
Rock'em Sock'em Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 6 hours ago, WhoTom said: we can't/won't commit to the run Bills are 7th in rushing yards per game and the only team to have 100 yards rushing in every single game. Five of the teams above us also have QBs that gain rushing yards - a couple of them even more so than Allen. Where do you see the lack of commitment this season? Quote
Virgil Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 I don’t understand how our defense is rated so high. We don’t get the sacks or turnovers, and we’ve been giving up a decent share of points. Are other defenses really that bad? Quote
WhoTom Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rock'em Sock'em said: Bills are 7th in rushing yards per game and the only team to have 100 yards rushing in every single game. Five of the teams above us also have QBs that gain rushing yards - a couple of them even more so than Allen. Where do you see the lack of commitment this season? I was being facetious. People keep complaining about Dorsey not committing to the run, yet, we have the #2 offense in the league. Quote
78thealltimegreat Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: Yesterday was a huge plus for special teams for sure. Not sure about #2 on offense anymore. To start the year yes but it has but up ad down since then. It’s the Gabe Davis and Isiah McKenzie factor to many drops Quote
ganesh Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 6 hours ago, That's No Moon said: Quick question, which team has looked better in all of those categories? Kansas City hasn't exactly been steamrolling the world this year either. The Bengals. They are having a stout Defense and an Offense that can challenge anyone. Quote
Malazan Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 6 hours ago, psuscott16 said: I think this team has figure out how to win, even if it's ugly. They won 13 games. I think they figured it out. Quote
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2023 Author Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, BearNorth said: We also played Detroit, Minny & Chicago - 3 of the 4 lowest ranked defenses. Detroit had one of the better defenses in the league in the second half of the season. Chicago’s D is terrible, but the weather was effing ridiculous. Quote
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 10, 2023 Posted January 10, 2023 My two favorite advanced metrics SCOREBOARD and RECORD also suggest they have had a good season… Quote
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