Thoughts on the pass defense?

[Mango]

I think there are a couple of things. 

1. A banged up Poyer, backed up FS, and a less than 100% Tre White. Just in general this is a bigger hit. 

 

2. We haven't been able to put together complicated coverages and looks to keep things simple for backups. A lot of man has hung Jackson out to dry quite a bit. He is a quality zone CB2. Concerning that our rookie man corner has not been able to hold down that role. 

 

3. Losing Von sucks, but I think we have enough depth and skill on the inside of the line, plus the ascension of Rousseau to still be a problem for most teams. I think the bigger problem is we are built to play with a big lead. We haven't been able to pull away until late in games the last few weeks/months. We don't do well in spaces where we cannot commit to the run or the pass. 

[Livinginthepast]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean adjust is EXACTLY what he did yesterday. They ran some more man in the second half. They did mix coverages up more and they got a beat on what the Pats were trying to do. In the second half Mac was 13/24 for 126 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs. 

 

The stats show consistently throughout the season that the Bills do give up fewer yards and fewer points as games go on. So you might find the strategy confusing and think they don't adjust.... but your eyes are lying to you. 

Yes they give up fewer points as games go on , but how much of that is due to the pressure our OFFENSIVE success has on the opposition.  When our Offense clicks we are usually up by 10 points which allows some breathing room for our D to take some risks. This also causes the opposition to get desperate and reduces their offensive productivity. I'm not sure that I can credit this to Fraziers defensive adjustments.

 

In addition, we can get away with this against crap teams but look at what happened in the Vikings game against a half decent pass offense. We let them back into the game.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Livinginthepast

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

51 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Jones 17/17,  3 TDs on their scoring drives, which were primarily against 4 rushing and 7 in coverage. 

 

Jones started making mistakes when we were bringing an extra rusher or two.

 

that means he was 9/23 with 3 interceptions on the rest of the drives though.  

 

You can't bring pressure all the time, teams tend to figure out the tells on pressure vs. simulated pressure - you also leave throwing lanes open for easy stuff over the middle, and ask a lot of your secondary to not get beat.  

[PrimeTime101]

12 hours ago, SUNTANBILLS FAN said:

Fraizer sucks been saying it for 3 years 

its crazy how split we are on this subject.

[Billz4ever]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

that means he was 9/23 with 3 interceptions on the rest of the drives though.  

 

You can't bring pressure all the time, teams tend to figure out the tells on pressure vs. simulated pressure - you also leave throwing lanes open for easy stuff over the middle, and ask a lot of your secondary to not get beat.  

I didn't say bring pressure every time, but if you never do, you're not only being predictable, you're saying you're OK with letting them move the ball down the field.

 

And it was the times we brought pressure that accounted for many of those bad throws.  

 

Quote

you also leave throwing lanes open for easy stuff over the middle, and ask a lot of your secondary to not get beat.  

 

As opposed to when we were dropping 7 and WRs were still catching the ball with a defender lucky to be within 5 yards?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Livinginthepast said:

Yes they give up fewer points as games go on , but how much of that is due to the pressure our OFFENSIVE success has on the opposition.  When our Offense clicks we are usually up by 10 points which allows some breathing room for our D to take some risks. This also causes the opposition to get desperate and reduces their offensive productivity. I'm not sure that I can credit this to Fraziers defensive adjustments.

 

It's probably a combination of both.  But we were tied in this one going into the half - tre white makes a play to kill a drive.  Offense gives it right back in the red zone - and defense got a stop.  So offense took 3 off the board, then gave them great field position - and we were only down 3.  

 

A lot of these offenses today are very much based on timing - its hard to "feel" that timing right away.  Late in the game they did a good job taking that away.  The scripted plays early are practiced a bunch so they tend to have great timing.  Later in the game its tougher - you see jones sailing some out routes others going lower.  You also see the defense knowing where he wants to go with the ball - stevenson is going to catch a swing route but milano is there, etc. 

[Rich Stadium Original]

Let me start by saying I really am a Bills fan, but can't realistically see them making a deep run into the playoffs.  They should beat a Tua-Less Dolphins, but all bets or off after that. They really have played valiantly in the last half of the season, but its obvious injuries have caught up with them. Breaking it down:

 

Defensive Line:

Von Miller..Almost starts and ends right here. Bills signed him to big contract because he was the piece they were missing last year..and he's  missing again.

Phillips and Oliver...probably your two best interior linemen playing seriously hurt. Wouldnt be surprised if both already have their post season surgey appointments made with UB Orthopaedic.

Rousseau...brightest hope on the line now, but has he really dominated anyone this season? Think of all those 3rd and longs that were converted because on the known passing down, nobody could get to the QB.

Basham, Epinesa, Lawson...show flashes, but inconsistant, especially in the pass rush.

Linebackers:

Edmunds and Milano (and Johnson)

Probably the brightest spot on the defense this year. Great game by Johnson. Milano still playing well, but to my eyes playing with a nagging injury slowing him as well.

Secondary:

Poyer: What a gamer...bad wing and torn meniscus,  and he's still out there..but despite his effort, not where he was last year.

Hyde...out....Hamelin...recovering...down to 3rd string at safety...that guy you see in the last playoff game in the 4th quarter...

White..recovering, but still missing a step..VERY fast receivers in the playoffs

Benford..still out with injury..Elam..to early to call him a bust, but certainly a disappointment for a 1st round pick (see Sauce Gardner)

 

In summary, dont see this patchwork lineup being very dominating going into the playoffs..last years defense at this point was probably better that this years version..and the offense hasnt shown the consistancy to be able the throw up 35 to 40 points I think will be required to win those games.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Billz4ever said:

I didn't say bring pressure every time, but if you never do, you're not only being predictable, you're saying you're OK with letting them move the ball down the field.

 

And it was the times we brought pressure that accounted for many of those bad throws.  

 

 

As opposed to when we were dropping 7 and WRs were still catching the ball with a defender lucky to be within 5 yards?

 

I think they looked like a team who had a tumultuous week, practiced maybe once and had a walkthrough.  

[Billz4ever]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think they looked like a team who had a tumultuous week, practiced maybe once and had a walkthrough.  

Let's not pretend these defensive struggles started yesterday.

[Your Brown Eye]

I think we will go as far as we can go hiding the inadequacies of our injury riddled secondary. We will potentially be facing Mia --> Ben --> Kc --> Phi/SF. All of whom have passing attacks that can gouge our secondary. We have the offense to counter those teams, but we are not countering against injury riddle secondaries.

 

At the beginning of the year, the consensus of what would/could possibly derail this talented team that looked unstoppable was injuries (mainly to Josh Allen). Yet here we are with a much maligned secondary. Hopefully Benford can come back, hopefully Tre can continue to gain a step, hopefully Elam can fix whatever is keeping him in the doghouse, hopefully Marlowe is serviceable enough. But that is a lot of hopefully's in just the secondary as we are looking at a four-game buzzsaw stretch of all-world WR's, QB's or both.

[ddaryl]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think they looked like a team who had a tumultuous week, practiced maybe once and had a walkthrough.  

 

 

This D has been very incosistent... In the playoffs I think our only hope is if Josh can put up 30 points a game.  The D will make an occasional play but for the most part any Playoff QB not having a bad day is going to move the ball against us

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let me start by saying I really am a Bills fan, but can't realistically see them making a deep run into the playoffs.  They should beat a Tua-Less Dolphins, but all bets or off after that. They really have played valiantly in the last half of the season, but its obvious injuries have caught up with them. Breaking it down:

 

Defensive Line:

Von Miller..Almost starts and ends right here. Bills signed him to big contract because he was the piece they were missing last year..and he's  missing again.

Phillips and Oliver...probably your two best interior linemen playing seriously hurt. Wouldnt be surprised if both already have their post season surgey appointments made with UB Orthopaedic.

Rousseau...brightest hope on the line now, but has he really dominated anyone this season? Think of all those 3rd and longs that were converted because on the known passing down, nobody could get to the QB.

Basham, Epinesa, Lawson...show flashes, but inconsistant, especially in the pass rush.

Linebackers:

Edmunds and Milano (and Johnson)

Probably the brightest spot on the defense this year. Great game by Johnson. Milano still playing well, but to my eyes playing with a nagging injury slowing him as well.

Secondary:

Poyer: What a gamer...bad wing and torn meniscus,  and he's still out there..but despite his effort, not where he was last year.

Hyde...out....Hamelin...recovering...down to 3rd string at safety...that guy you see in the last playoff game in the 4th quarter...

White..recovering, but still missing a step..VERY fast receivers in the playoffs

Benford..still out with injury..Elam..to early to call him a bust, but certainly a disappointment for a 1st round pick (see Sauce Gardner)

 

In summary, dont see this patchwork lineup being very dominating going into the playoffs..last years defense at this point was probably better that this years version..and the offense hasnt shown the consistancy to be able the throw up 35 to 40 points I think will be required to win those games.

 

 

Buffalo has a better offense than the bengals (who can't run the ball particularly well... could be a problem in i dunno buffalo?), and the bengals pass defense is nothing to write home about.  Both their best pass rushers are banged up, and they play 6 games against cleveland/baltimore/pittsburgh, so their defense stats are probably even inflated by that point.  Not to mention this list: Bridgewater, Cooper rush, Dalton, Mariota, and Walker/Mayfield.

 

As for KC, their offense is a beast but they also can't run the ball well so dare them to do so.  Defensively they are young in the secondary, and they have a really solid front 4.  This being a neutral site game is huge though - i went to the KC game in arrowhead, and while it does give you the "big fight feel" of a college rivalry game or something like that, its a HUGE advantage to KC.  They get all the crowd noise, the drums, the chants - and buffalo sprinkles some blue in.  They lost one home game this year and it was to Buffalo.  4/5 of their highest points allowed games were on the road- while 4/5 of their fewest points allowed games were at home.  

 

5 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Let's not pretend these defensive struggles started yesterday.

 

I meant specifically on the lack of prep showing in some of the vanilla looks they presented.  

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Yes they give up fewer points as games go on , but how much of that is due to the pressure our OFFENSIVE success has on the opposition.  When our Offense clicks we are usually up by 10 points which allows some breathing room for our D to take some risks. This also causes the opposition to get desperate and reduces their offensive productivity. I'm not sure that I can credit this to Fraziers defensive adjustments.

 

In addition, we can get away with this against crap teams but look at what happened in the Vikings game against a half decent pass offense. We let them back into the game.

 

Some of it, sure. All of it? No. It is also because we make good adjustments, as we did yesterday. 

 

I agree we are not going to "get away" with it in the post-season. We are going to have to win by outscoring teams and being opportunistic on defense. That is where the team is with the swapping and changing we have had in the secondary all year. 

[Billz4ever]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Buffalo has a better offense than the bengals (who can't run the ball particularly well... could be a problem in i dunno buffalo?), and the bengals pass defense is nothing to write home about.  Both their best pass rushers are banged up, and they play 6 games against cleveland/baltimore/pittsburgh, so their defense stats are probably even inflated by that point.  Not to mention this list: Bridgewater, Cooper rush, Dalton, Mariota, and Walker/Mayfield.

 

As for KC, their offense is a beast but they also can't run the ball well so dare them to do so.  Defensively they are young in the secondary, and they have a really solid front 4.  This being a neutral site game is huge though - i went to the KC game in arrowhead, and while it does give you the "big fight feel" of a college rivalry game or something like that, its a HUGE advantage to KC.  They get all the crowd noise, the drums, the chants - and buffalo sprinkles some blue in.  They lost one home game this year and it was to Buffalo.  4/5 of their highest points allowed games were on the road- while 4/5 of their fewest points allowed games were at home.  

 

 

I meant specifically on the lack of prep showing in some of the vanilla looks they presented.  

Disagree. I think we probably would have lost that game Monday night.  Yes, it was early and things can happen, but the D wasn't showing me anything that they could stop Burrow.  Simply running a defense that basically relies on the offense making a mistake isn't going to work in playoff football against good teams.  The only way we would've won that game Monday is if we were able to win in a shootout, which I didn't see happening.

 

As far as KC goes, when we played them, we had Von harassing Mahomes all game long.  We don't have that now and we are not getting pressure just rushing the front 4.  Mahomes - Kelce is going to kill us if we cannot generate a pass rush. Getting into a shootout with Mahomes is also not a matchup I see us winning.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Billz4ever said:

Disagree. I think we probably would have lost that game Monday night.  Yes, it was early and things can happen, but the D wasn't showing me anything that they could stop Burrow.  Simply running a defense that basically relies on the offense making a mistake isn't going to work in playoff football against good teams.  The only way we would've won that game Monday is if we were able to win in a shootout, which I didn't see happening.

 

As far as KC goes, when we played them, we had Von harassing Mahomes all game long.  We don't have that now and we are not getting pressure just rushing the front 4.  Mahomes - Kelce is going to kill us if we cannot generate a pass rush. Getting into a shootout with Mahomes is also not a matchup I see us winning.

 

Cincy ran like 8 plays though... you're projecting an entire game based on 8 plays?  They didn't even get through their walk through script. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

At one point Mac Jones was completing 85% of his passes, it was frankly ridiculous.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Disagree. I think we probably would have lost that game Monday night.  Yes, it was early and things can happen, but the D wasn't showing me anything that they could stop Burrow.  Simply running a defense that basically relies on the offense making a mistake isn't going to work in playoff football against good teams.  The only way we would've won that game Monday is if we were able to win in a shootout, which I didn't see happening.

 

As far as KC goes, when we played them, we had Von harassing Mahomes all game long.  We don't have that now and we are not getting pressure just rushing the front 4.  Mahomes - Kelce is going to kill us if we cannot generate a pass rush. Getting into a shootout with Mahomes is also not a matchup I see us winning.

 

What makes you think they can stop us? The Allen / Mahomes / Burrow games are going to come down to scoring points. Pure and simple. 

[Billz4ever]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Cincy ran like 8 plays though... you're projecting an entire game based on 8 plays?  They didn't even get through their walk through script. 

They already had 7 points on the board and were easily moving the ball on the second drive.  What was going to all the sudden change to stop that?

[PrimeTime101]

this secondary has been beat up all year. People complain about Mac Jones completion rating? Look where Mac was throwing the ball. Mostly inside the 10 and the pass towards Elam was a great pass and a better catch.

[Billz4ever]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

What makes you think they can stop us? The Allen / Mahomes / Burrow games are going to come down to scoring points. Pure and simple. 

And yesterday, 14 of those points came from special teams.  I hope you're not expecting that every game.

 

Right now, Cincy and KC have more consistent offenses and I also think Cincy's D is better than ours right now.