Don't look now, but Bills rounding into playoff shape.

[AlfaBill]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

We just beat a division rival who had everything to lose coached by Bill Belichick, you thought the Pats were just going to sit back and let us win? We put up 327 total yards, we did give up 341 yards but also had a sack and 3 INT's plus 2 special teams TD. It's crazy how some don't think this is an explosive offense, what makes you think that?

I wasn’t talking about the Pats* game specially. Perhaps I remember last season differently than it actually was. I’m not too concerned TBH,we should be the fish. After that we shall see. Hopefully these Bills can flip the switch like last years team did in the playoffs 

[newcam2012]

On 1/8/2023 at 4:49 PM, John from Riverside said:

The one thing that is bothering me is I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen whenever we get into the red zone. We absolutely cannot turn the ball over there. It’s going to be the difference between winning and losing in these playoff games.

I agree. Also, I'm not confident the Bills defense can slow down Burrows, Mahomes, and maybe Herbert. If they game comes down to the Bills needing a defensive stop I'm not sure they will get it done. That's where missing Von is going to be felt. 

[newcam2012]

On 1/10/2023 at 3:41 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is the worry for me.

 

The rest of the team is really working. And when Von was healthly you just had the sense that they'd get a sack just when they needed it. This year their QB pressure is good at times but able to be handled often.

 

I worry when they face Mahomes.

 

 

 

 

Bad take on the defense. Particularly for all the injuries, they've played really really well. The one worry is that they haven't adequately replaced Miller's sacks when they needed them.

 

But we're 4th in defensive DVOA. This is a very good defense.

The defense is good vs inferior and one dimensional offenses.

 

They played poorly against solid offenses with decent QBs. They struggled vs Minn, Det, Miami, and 5 min of Cinci. 

 

The Bills played the Jets and NE twice who arguably are bottom feeding offenses. Chicago who has college like WRs with no pass threat. A Brisett led Clev team that sucked. A Green Bay team that was slumping and playing poorly. A KC team that was still trying to find their offensive mojo. 

 

This Bills defense is not bad by any means. I wouldn't consider the defense as elite in any way. The pass rush is inconsistent as well as their run defense. The secondary hasn't looked reliable and consistent for some time. Their tackling is worrisome. The last two games their tackling has been excellent. Prior to that it's one of the worst in the NFL. In fact, I'm not sure they can stop Burrow and the Bengals or Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

 

Lastly, I ask you to trust your eyes and don't get enamored in the stats. My eyes will be very nervous if the Bills need the defense to make a stop to win the game. I'd much rather have Allen have the ball and win it. Hopefully, there won't be 13 seconds left on the clock...

Edited January 12, 2023 by newcam2012

[John from Riverside]

26 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The defense is good vs inferior and one dimensional offenses.

 

They played poorly against solid offenses with decent QBs. They struggled vs Minn, Det, Miami, and 5 min of Cinci. 

 

The Bills played the Jets and NE twice who arguably are bottom feeding offenses. Chicago who has college like WRs with no pass threat. A Brisett led Clev team that sucked. A Green Bay team that was slumping and playing poorly. A KC team that was still trying to find their offensive mojo. 

 

This Bills defense is not bad by any means. I wouldn't consider the defense as elite in any way. The pass rush is inconsistent as well as their run defense. The secondary hasn't looked reliable and consistent for some time. Their tackling is worrisome. The last two games their tackling has been excellent. Prior to that it's one of the worst in the NFL. In fact, I'm not sure they can stop Burrow and the Bengals or Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

 

Lastly, I ask you to trust your eyes and don't get enamored in the stats. My eyes will be very nervous if the Bills need the defense to make a stop to win the game. I'd much rather have Allen have the ball and win it. Hopefully, there won't be 13 seconds left on the clock...

Nobody is stopping the Bengals or the Chiefs on Offense in the playoffs that’s why it is so important to

 

Control time of possession by running the ball

 

Score touchdowns, not field goals

 

Earlier in the season, we hardly punted we need to get back to that

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Nobody is stopping the Bengals or the Chiefs on Offense in the playoffs that’s why it is so important to

 

Control time of possession by running the ball

 

Score touchdowns, not field goals

 

Earlier in the season, we hardly punted we need to get back to that

I would add that the Bills offense needs to be more explosive. Last year, the offense was very explosive. Big strikes, long passes, and scores quickly. This year's team has not nearly been as explosive. Last week's game was hopefully a good sign. A huge strike to Diggs and Brown was great to see.

 

I'm not so sure a control the ball via running is an effective strategy for the Bills. Sure the run threat and running is needed. Not sure it's needed to keep the opposition off the field. Rather, It opens up the whole offense.

 

Imho, I'd rather see a Bills aggressive offense. Let Allen loose. Ride his arms and legs. Pressure the opposing defenses with motion, RPOs, quick screens, use Cook and Hines in the passing game, 5 wide sets, send Gabe, Diggs, and Brown deep. 

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by newcam2012

[John from Riverside]

22 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I would add that the Bills offense needs to be more explosive. Last year, the offense was very explosive. Big strikes, long passes, and scores quickly. This year's team has not nearly been as explosive. Last week's game was hopefully a good sign. A huge strike to Diggs and Brown was great to see.

 

I'm not so sure a control the ball via running is an effective strategy for the Bills. Sure the run threat and running is needed. Not sure it's needed to keep the opposition off the field. Rather, It opens up the whole offense.

 

Imho, I'd rather see a Bills aggressive offense. Let Allen loose. Ride his arms and legs. Pressure the opposing defenses with motion, RPOs, quick screens, use Cook and Hines in the passing game, 5 wide sets, send Gabe, Diggs, and Brown deep. 

 

If/when we get a lead in these playoff games.....we need to be able to kill the clock running the ball.  I creates mistakes by a team being suffocated due to time restraints

 

Mahommes is just itching to throw that interception.....we just need to lead him to it

[Toyo321]

16 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

Better bench him then.  Seriously dude, go back read what you just posted.  Clearly Josh Allen is a total train wreck. 

 

He's "killing this team"?  Seriously?

 

Bring on Case Keenum, because clearly "Bad Josh" ain't gettting it done.  13-3 blows.

 

Forget the fact the he has put up 35 TDs through the air and 8 more on the ground.

Forget the fact that he played through an injury.

Forget the fact that his stats are remarkably close to last year's, in one less game, plus the quarters he sat out early in the year when the games were iced.

 

I guess that I watch games and over the past 7 I have seen a team that despite problems and shortcomings (something that EVERY TEAM IN THE NFL HAS) keeps on finding ways to win games.  They have done it with offense, with defense, with special teams.  Through the air.  On the ground.  They have pulled their own asses out of the fire---and that's what I mean by rounding into playoff shape.   It's not always about numbers.  It's attitude.  It's the effort of a the team as a whole.  Every team makes unforced errors.  Every one.  What the Bills have shown me this year is that over the 2nd half of the season, they have not let that stop them.

 

 

We have been lucky to overcome his 14 ints and be 13-3.  It is not good football, when you are in the redzone and have 9 picks when down there.

 

Lets see hypothetical possible points lost due to int's in the redzone 9 x 7 = 63

Lets see hypothetical possible points lost due to total int's  14 x 7 =98

 

Thats alot of potential lost scoring that could have factored in on some very close games this year. Especially the losses to the Jets and Vikings this year.  4 total int's in those two games alone.

 

When you have the other team "Jets" & its players in the opposing locker room saying they knew Josh was going to throw the ball there before it happened what does that tell you.

 

Ken Dorsey is a liability this year when last year we did not have this liability at the OC position, with Daboll.

 

Other teams with good defenses have figured out this team offensively down in the redzone.   If you figure that the competition level is only going to increase going forward we will see if your words hold merit.

 

That makes it even more critical to not to make these mistakes in this years playoff run.

 

We are lucky and blessed to have Josh on this team but this year he has to understand that he is 100% "not superman", and when it comes to ball possession, that is the most important area that needs to be addressed by him this postseason. 

 

We are back to square one again, its playoff time.

Our record is 0-0.  Nothing else matters going forward.  What matters is getting to 4-0  that means Super Bowl LVII winner.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Toyo321

[Gugny]

[Royale with Cheese]

14 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The defense is good vs inferior and one dimensional offenses.

 

They played poorly against solid offenses with decent QBs. They struggled vs Minn, Det, Miami, and 5 min of Cinci. 

 

The Bills played the Jets and NE twice who arguably are bottom feeding offenses. Chicago who has college like WRs with no pass threat. A Brisett led Clev team that sucked. A Green Bay team that was slumping and playing poorly. A KC team that was still trying to find their offensive mojo. 

 

This Bills defense is not bad by any means. I wouldn't consider the defense as elite in any way. The pass rush is inconsistent as well as their run defense. The secondary hasn't looked reliable and consistent for some time. Their tackling is worrisome. The last two games their tackling has been excellent. Prior to that it's one of the worst in the NFL. In fact, I'm not sure they can stop Burrow and the Bengals or Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

 

Lastly, I ask you to trust your eyes and don't get enamored in the stats. My eyes will be very nervous if the Bills need the defense to make a stop to win the game. I'd much rather have Allen have the ball and win it. Hopefully, there won't be 13 seconds left on the clock...

 

The Lions finished the season top 5 in offensive scoring.

 

KC a team that was still trying to find their offensive mojo?  In the previous two weeks, they scored 41 and 30.  Then the week after playing us, they put up 44 of the 49ers.  In that 4 game span, Buffalo included they scored 33.5 ppg.  Those 3 games outside of the Bills game 38 ppg.  It's like you don't want to give Bills credit for stopping KC's offense....

 

Miami we were missing Jordan Poyer, Dane Jackson, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Micah Hyde and Tre White.  Miami at the time was leading the NFL in scoring and we gave up 19 points.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Toyo321 said:

We have been lucky to overcome his 14 ints and be 13-3.  It is not good football, when you are in the redzone and have 9 picks when down there.

 

Lets see hypothetical possible points lost due to int's in the redzone 9 x 7 = 63

Lets see hypothetical possible points lost due to total int's  14 x 7 =98

 

Thats alot of potential lost scoring that could have factored in on some very close games this year. Especially the losses to the Jets and Vikings this year.  4 total int's in those two games alone.

 

This is completely wrong and your analytics make no sense from a football perspective.  The Bills didn't need to overcome Allen's "14 INT's" to go 13 - 3.  This is a gross distortion of the season. 

 

Allen takes more risks and pushes the ball down field. The end result is more big plays and turnovers.  Obviously with the Bills winning 13 games, having the #2 ranked Offense in yards & points and Allen gaining over 5,000 total yards and scoring 42 TD's his INT's had a secondary impact on the season.

 

The only thing Allen's TO's impacted were:

 

*  A couple of our wins were closer then they might have been with 1 - 2 score wins instead of 3 score wins.

 

*  Allen's 14 INT's may have kept us from going 15 - 1. But then again his aggressive style of play may have kept the Bills from going 10 - 6.

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

16 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I would add that the Bills offense needs to be more explosive. Last year, the offense was very explosive. Big strikes, long passes, and scores quickly. This year's team has not nearly been as explosive. Last week's game was hopefully a good sign. A huge strike to Diggs and Brown was great to see.

 

Didn't the Bills lead the league in longest downfield completions and highest rate of 3rd and long conversions? That's pretty damn explosive. 

 

I think that the Bills were more explosive during the REGULAR season in 2022 then they were in 2021. You might be inflating last season's explosiveness by including the Bill's playoff performances from 2021/22.  Allen & the O were very explosive in those two playoff games.  Let's see how this season's playoffs go.

 

 

 

 

[BearNorth]

Our 3 losses were

 

-2 at Miami - game played in a sauna, missed FG, Josh short-arms pass to open McKenzie, Milano drops pick six, McKenzie can't get OOB on last play

-3 at Jets - Josh Intercepted at 9 yard line, missed FG, Interception on pass to Davis in own end, Penalty on completion to DIggs at midfield

-3 home vs. Minny - Bills scored 33 points!, Josh 2-INTs in Minny end zone, Josh fumbles exchange in own end zone,

 

I would say we were a handful of plays away from 16-0.

-

[Toyo321]

53 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This is completely wrong and your analytics make no sense from a football perspective.  The Bills didn't need to overcome Allen's "14 INT's" to go 13 - 3.  This is a gross distortion of the season. 

 

Allen takes more risks and pushes the ball down field. The end result is more big plays and turnovers.  Obviously with the Bills winning 13 games, having the #2 ranked Offense in yards & points and Allen gaining over 5,000 total yards and scoring 42 TD's his INT's had a secondary impact on the season.

 

The only thing Allen's TO's impacted were:

 

*  A couple of our wins were closer then they might have been with 1 - 2 score wins instead of 3 score wins.

 

*  Allen's 14 INT's may have kept us from going 15 - 1. But then again his aggressive style of play may have kept the Bills from going 10 - 6.

 

 

 

 

Everything I said was "Hypothetical"  Allen takes more risks down field and forces the ball into coverages that he shouldn't and the results this year has been more INT's and more dropped passes.  We were one of the worst teams in dropped passes this year and a lot of these passes were forced throws by Allen.  So it does matter.  If he continues to overlook the checkdowns like he has it will cost us.

 

Matter of fact if he doesn't throw all those pic's we probably are the #1 seed this year.  That is the truth right there.

 

Turnovers matter the most when figuring the outcome in playoff games, who gets the win.   I hope you are ready for some bad news.

 

If Josh throws more int's in the redzone this postseason this team does not make it out of the AFC and advance.  They won't even get to the AFCCG if he throws more pics in the redzone this postseason.  KC and Cinci can go toe to toe and point for point with Buffalo.   We do not have the advantage on offense this year. 

 

There is a clear line being drawn in the sand right now,  and that is where our defense has to step it up this postseason.  If we play less than 100% in any quarters like we have this year where we have stunk the joint out in some games this year,  we will lose to either Cinci or KC.

 

And that is fact,  in a football perspective.

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Toyo321

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

17 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The defense is good vs inferior and one dimensional offenses.

 

They played poorly against solid offenses with decent QBs. They struggled vs Minn, Det, Miami, and 5 min of Cinci. 

 

The Bills played the Jets and NE twice who arguably are bottom feeding offenses. Chicago who has college like WRs with no pass threat. A Brisett led Clev team that sucked. A Green Bay team that was slumping and playing poorly. A KC team that was still trying to find their offensive mojo. 

 

This Bills defense is not bad by any means. I wouldn't consider the defense as elite in any way. The pass rush is inconsistent as well as their run defense. The secondary hasn't looked reliable and consistent for some time. Their tackling is worrisome. The last two games their tackling has been excellent. Prior to that it's one of the worst in the NFL. In fact, I'm not sure they can stop Burrow and the Bengals or Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

 

Lastly, I ask you to trust your eyes and don't get enamored in the stats. My eyes will be very nervous if the Bills need the defense to make a stop to win the game. I'd much rather have Allen have the ball and win it. Hopefully, there won't be 13 seconds left on the clock...

 

 This is true with all defenses, you play better against the bad offenses than against the good ones. The 49ers were torched for 423 yards by Mahomes. Tua threw for 295 yards against them.

 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

It's the playoffs.  Stats are not going to tell anyone who is going to win and lose.

 

Everyone can rest assured that the Bills will not take the Miami Dolphins lightly.

 

It's one game at a time and nothing else matters but 1:00 pm this Sunday in Orchard Park.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Toyo321 said:

Everything I said was "Hypothetical"  Allen takes more risks down field and forces the ball into coverages that he shouldn't and the results this year has been more INT's and more dropped passes.  We were one of the worst teams in dropped passes this year and a lot of these passes were forced throws by Allen.  So it does matter.  If he continues to overlook the checkdowns like he has it will cost us.

 

Matter of fact if he doesn't throw all those pic's we probably are the #1 seed this year.  That is the truth right there.

 

Turnovers matter the most when figuring the outcome in playoff games, who gets the win.   I hope you are ready for some bad news.

 

If Josh throws more int's in the redzone this postseason this team does not make it out of the AFC and advance.  They won't even get to the AFCCG if he throws more pics in the redzone this postseason.  KC and Cinci can go toe to toe and point for point with Buffalo.   We do not have the advantage on offense this year. 

 

There is a clear line being drawn in the sand right now,  and that is where our defense has to step it up this postseason.  If we play less than 100% in any quarters like we have this year where we have stunk the joint out in some games this year,  we will lose to either Cinci or KC.

 

And that is fact,  in a football perspective.

 

 

 

So you are blaming the dropped passes on Allen forcing throws!  That makes no sense to me.  In all my years of watching football I've never heard someone blame the QB for DROPPED passes before.  What distinguishes an NFL QB from a college QB is the willingness and ability to throw the ball into tight spaces.  

 

If Allen wasn't as aggressive as he is, which leads to INT's, and focused his game on taking what the defense gave him rather then taking what he wanted the Bills would have been lucky to win 10 games - and that is the truth right there.

 

As for Allen throwing INT's in the red zone in the playoffs let's wait and see what happens.  What we do know for a fact is that through 6 playoff games Allen has yet to throw an INT ANYWHERE on the field.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Drew21PA]

20 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The defense is good vs inferior and one dimensional offenses.

 

They played poorly against solid offenses with decent QBs. They struggled vs Minn, Det, Miami, and 5 min of Cinci. 

 

The Bills played the Jets and NE twice who arguably are bottom feeding offenses. Chicago who has college like WRs with no pass threat. A Brisett led Clev team that sucked. A Green Bay team that was slumping and playing poorly. A KC team that was still trying to find their offensive mojo. 

 

This Bills defense is not bad by any means. I wouldn't consider the defense as elite in any way. The pass rush is inconsistent as well as their run defense. The secondary hasn't looked reliable and consistent for some time. Their tackling is worrisome. The last two games their tackling has been excellent. Prior to that it's one of the worst in the NFL. In fact, I'm not sure they can stop Burrow and the Bengals or Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

 

Lastly, I ask you to trust your eyes and don't get enamored in the stats. My eyes will be very nervous if the Bills need the defense to make a stop to win the game. I'd much rather have Allen have the ball and win it. Hopefully, there won't be 13 seconds left on the clock...

Disagree pretty much with everything here 

 

but Go Bills!

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Our 3 losses were

 

-2 at Miami - game played in a sauna, missed FG, Josh short-arms pass to open McKenzie, Milano drops pick six, McKenzie can't get OOB on last play

-3 at Jets - Josh Intercepted at 9 yard line, missed FG, Interception on pass to Davis in own end, Penalty on completion to DIggs at midfield

-3 home vs. Minny - Bills scored 33 points!, Josh 2-INTs in Minny end zone, Josh fumbles exchange in own end zone,

 

I would say we were a handful of plays away from 16-0.

-

It doesn't work that way. Bills could have easily lost to KC, Balt, and Miami. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

6 hours ago, Toyo321 said:

Everything I said was "Hypothetical"  Allen takes more risks down field and forces the ball into coverages that he shouldn't and the results this year has been more INT's and more dropped passes.  We were one of the worst teams in dropped passes this year and a lot of these passes were forced throws by Allen.  So it does matter.  If he continues to overlook the checkdowns like he has it will cost us.

 

Matter of fact if he doesn't throw all those pic's we probably are the #1 seed this year.  That is the truth right there.

 

Turnovers matter the most when figuring the outcome in playoff games, who gets the win.   I hope you are ready for some bad news.

 

If Josh throws more int's in the redzone this postseason this team does not make it out of the AFC and advance.  They won't even get to the AFCCG if he throws more pics in the redzone this postseason.  KC and Cinci can go toe to toe and point for point with Buffalo.   We do not have the advantage on offense this year. 

 

There is a clear line being drawn in the sand right now,  and that is where our defense has to step it up this postseason.  If we play less than 100% in any quarters like we have this year where we have stunk the joint out in some games this year,  we will lose to either Cinci or KC.

 

And that is fact,  in a football perspective.

 

 

 

 

 Nothing resulted in more ints because there simply weren't more ints this year. Allen's td to int ration is nearly identical to last year's. 36/15 last year, 35/14 this year. The offensive output is nearly identical as both years we averaged 28.4 ppg, we averaged 6 more ypg this year & .46 more 1st downs last year. Josh's numbers across the board are nearly identical ypg, as mentioned td/int ratio, QB Rating is 4 points higher this year. Even with his rushing stats where last year he rushed for 122/763/6 vs this year 124/762/7. That's as close as it gets.

 

 It's the same output, just done differently. Last year we were great in the redzone, this year we've struggled some in the redzone, but have a bunch of bigger play tds that were outside the redzone. Both ways clearly work.

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS