We're onto Miami(Miami's headed to Buffalo)...opening line BUF -10! Game at 1:05 PM SUN 1/15

[CorkScrewHill]

24 minutes ago, 947 said:

Not even close. 49ers were favored by 19 over the Chargers in the Superbowl 29. Colts were -18 vs Jets in SB 3.

It has been reported that it would be the highest for a wild card round game.

[17islongenough]

34 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Run threat for sure

I haven't really watched him play.  Why is he a running threat.  I looked up his stats and he's run 14 times for 21 yards

[Logic]

26 minutes ago, 947 said:

Not even close. 49ers were favored by 19 over the Chargers in the Superbowl 29. Colts were -18 vs Jets in SB 3.

You're right. 

On second look, it's for the Wild Card round only.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/11/for-upcoming-postseason-game-at-bills-dolphins-are-biggest-wild-card-underdog-ever/

"Via ESPN Stats & Information, a 13-point spread would be a record high for wild-card weekend. The previous record as 12."

[PaattMaann]

2 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

I haven't really watched him play.  Why is he a running threat.  I looked up his stats and he's run 14 times for 21 yards

 

He rushed over 100 times in back to back college seasons (not very effectively, only topped 400 yards once). Its more he is mobile and can extend plays. He is seriously not a dude to worry about though in any respect. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Fins will struggle to get to 17 points this game.

You spelled 7 wrong

[YattaOkasan]

10 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Or find a way to get Tyreek super involved.   He can be a game wrecker pure and simple.  He's too fast for any of our dbs.

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

4 hours ago, nucci said:

these people need to get with the times...it's not the '70s

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

That is conventional wisdom.

Run the ball.  Control the clock.  Keep Josh Allen off the field.  Hope your defense creates turnovers and limits points.

 

I'm going the complete opposite direction. 

The Bills have only had two games under 20 points this season (17 and 19 points).  That is the absolute floor for this offense.  So even if their defense plays lights out, I'm not sure a Skyler Thompson-led team can put together enough long methodical drives to put up 20 points.

 

My gameplan would be tons of trick plays, and taking at least one deep shot every drive.  With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, you might get lucky and get a couple big plays.  I'm taking the chance they can get 2-3 bombs for touchdowns, over the same number of 8-9 play drives.

 

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

 

**I misread mjt post.  These are my thoughts for what Bills O might do so will leave up.  I agree with mjt that Fins need to run trick plays to stay in it.

Edited January 12, 2023 by YattaOkasan
I can't read

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

That is conventional wisdom.

Run the ball.  Control the clock.  Keep Josh Allen off the field.  Hope your defense creates turnovers and limits points.

 

I'm going the complete opposite direction. 

The Bills have only had two games under 20 points this season (17 and 19 points).  That is the absolute floor for this offense.  So even if their defense plays lights out, I'm not sure a Skyler Thompson-led team can put together enough long methodical drives to put up 20 points.

 

My gameplan would be tons of trick plays, and taking at least one deep shot every drive.  With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, you might get lucky and get a couple big plays.  I'm taking the chance they can get 2-3 bombs for touchdowns, over the same number of 8-9 play drives.

 

 

Except that has been shown not to actually work very well because Allen can score regularly within 2-3 minutes.

[UKBillFan]

3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

 

I think mjt328 is suggesting that's how the Dolphins should approach the game; not the Bills.

[jletha]

4 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

I believe he is talking about what should be *Miami's* gameplan. Not Buffalo

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You don’t think he should be terrified of Hill and Waddle?  Those are the guys he needs to be terrified of.  Mostert is likely out and Wilson, while fast, isn’t Mostert fast (or strong) and has fumbling issues. 
 

i would definitely keep the cheetahs in front of us while trying to figure out their run game.  If we can’t stop the run, make adjustments.  It’s not just mcdermotts way…..it’s the smart way.

 

This.  I have no idea how much of an arm Skyler Thompson has, but it has to remembered that in KC, 1/3 of Hill's yards came after the catch.  That's been less of his game this season, more like 1/4, but it's still part of what makes him a dangerous WR: the ability to turn a 5 yd dump off into 25 any time now.

[Big Turk]

 

[Turbo44]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Don’t we also have to elevate John Brown since we already have 3 times?

[BlazinBill]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Give the ability to have Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown/Shakir and McKenzie as a way deeper receiver then we have had this year and only need 1 PS call up- love it

[Andrew Son]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t we also have to elevate John Brown since we already have 3 times?

Unlimited in the postseason

[AlfaBill]

26 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

Perhaps Hill will be used in the return game. 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Oh, now that's interesting

 

Keep in mind that while we have unlimited practice squad call ups for each player in the playoffs, we can still only elevate 2 per game without making a roster move.

 

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t we also have to elevate John Brown since we already have 3 times?

 

No, the call-ups re-set.

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Oh, now that's interesting

 

Keep in mind that while we have unlimited practice squad call ups for each player in the playoffs, we can still only elevate 2 per game without making a roster move.

 

John Brown and Brandin Bryant is my guess

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

Giants? 

[YattaOkasan]

24 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I think mjt328 is suggesting that's how the Dolphins should approach the game; not the Bills.

 

23 minutes ago, jletha said:

I believe he is talking about what should be *Miami's* gameplan. Not Buffalo

Appreciate that context that I missed.  I agree Miami should throw the kitchen sink.  I think they still have to run but need some explosive plays to keep up.  Sorta why I think they run a Hill wildcat package.