We're onto Miami(Miami's headed to Buffalo)...opening line BUF -10! Game at 1:05 PM SUN 1/15

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, beebe said:

the current line is a straddle between the possibility of tua playing or not playing.

 

if tua is in, line will be dolphins +7.5

 

if he's out, line will be about 11. 

True. 
But there’s the Bridgewater factor too. 
So something like Dolphins + 7 with Tua starting (basically Bills 4 point faves on a neutral field). Dolphins + 10 with Teddy starting. Dolphins + 16 (more? He’s that bad) with Skyler Thompson starting. 

47 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

CLEARLY, the Bills should not intentionally try to concuss Tua.

 

What they better do is have a game-plan in place that tries to knock around Tua.  If he plays, we know he can be hit.. and that those hits can greatly affect his ability.  

 

If anyone on this team/staff is holding back because of Hamlin, we are not long for the post-season. 

Try to “knock him around” bothers me too. 
Try to bring pressure to throw off that quick rhythm passing game? Yeah, I’m fine with that. Although you do risk not getting to him and letting Tyreek/Waddle break one for 70 yards. I prefer “try to disrupt the receivers to keep them from getting off the line cleanly.”

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

The parenthetical numbers are their rankings out of 32. The Bills are second vs. nickel and the Dolphins nickel D is the 25th best nickel D in the league. 

[WotAGuy]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

You interpreted the data correctly. The numbers in parentheses are league ranking. As for what DVOA is, you’ll have to figure it out for yourself as to whether it’s a useful metric. It’s a statistic, so it can be useful or nonsense depending on your perspective. 
 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by WotAGuy

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

 

DVOA, basically, measures situational performance versus a replacement-level baseline.  How does your team compare to how your average team would do against that same opponent, in that same down-and-distance.

[newcam2012]

19 minutes ago, beebe said:

the current line is a straddle between the possibility of tua playing or not playing.

 

if tua is in, line will be dolphins +7.5

 

if he's out, line will be about 11. 

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by newcam2012

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

lets see that ticket then

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. 

You don't say.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

GTFOH

[Heitz]

33 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Looks like Tua is going to play according to several Twitter folks.

 

 

 

Your takeaway from this is Tua is going to play?  Two memes, from a Bills podcast?  That are clearly a joke?

 

14 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

 

You SURE you're a Bills fan?  Your takes are all so far off the mark, IMO...

 

 

[Sharky7337]

1 hour ago, Heitz said:

 

Your takeaway from this is Tua is going to play?  Two memes, from a Bills podcast?  That are clearly a joke?

 

 

You SURE you're a Bills fan?  Your takes are all so far off the mark, IMO...

 

 

Apparently being a bills fan means not taking a good bet? Lol

Edited January 11, 2023 by Sharky7337

[Patrick Duffy]

17 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami.

How much you put down? 5 dollas ?
 

[Process]

54 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

Post the bet slip showing you wagered on the dolphins +10.5 prior to 6:47pm on 1/10, and whatever amount you bet I will match with a donation to Hamlin's charity, up to $50. I'll post the receipt as well. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

 

one of the worst posts i've read on this site. we're a week removed from "who cares about football" and "there's more important things in life" and right back to "let's capitalize on the fact that a concussed player is playing and try to take him out!"

 

the bills don't need to intentionally concuss or injure tua to win.

 

That guy might be the worst poster on here so don't mistake him for the fanbase. On Chief's Planet he'd be one of the good ones 😉

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

Post the bet slip showing you wagered on the dolphins +10.5 prior to 6:47pm on 1/10, and whatever amount you bet I will match with a donation to Hamlin's charity, up to $50. I'll post the receipt as well. 

 

Isn't he the same one few weeks ago was bragging about his bet and another poster asked him to post the receipt for proof.....and when he did post the receipt it was a whooping 5 dollar bet lol?

 

Think it was him anyways...

[BearNorth]

FWIW
Excluding each other, Bills and Dolphins played 11 common opponents

Bills in those 11 games were 9-2, Dolphins were 7-4.

Bills point differential in common games was +91.

Bills had a larger margin of victory in 8 of the 11 games.

[section122]

I just pulled up my draftkings and caesars app and the line is down to 9.5 with 90% of bets on buffalo.  I dont think that line moves like that unless tua is playing.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Isn't he the same one few weeks ago was bragging about his bet and another poster asked him to post the receipt for proof.....and when he did post the receipt it was a whooping 5 dollar bet lol?

 

Think it was him anyways...

Hey i love my 5$ parlays lol

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

True. 
But there’s the Bridgewater factor too. 
So something like Dolphins + 7 with Tua starting (basically Bills 4 point faves on a neutral field). Dolphins + 10 with Teddy starting. Dolphins + 16 (more? He’s that bad) with Skyler Thompson starting. 

Try to “knock him around” bothers me too. 
Try to bring pressure to throw off that quick rhythm passing game? Yeah, I’m fine with that. Although you do risk not getting to him and letting Tyreek/Waddle break one for 70 yards. I prefer “try to disrupt the receivers to keep them from getting off the line cleanly.”

Dont want to see the guy hurt. However, it is not on us to change our gameplan to try and keep him safe, the same way our goal shouldnt be to hurt him.  Get after the qb, hit the way you would normally hit, better yet, get this guys injury completely outta your heads.

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

FWIW
Excluding each other, Bills and Dolphins played 11 common opponents

Bills in those 11 games were 9-2, Dolphins were 7-4.

Bills point differential in common games was +91.

Bills had a larger margin of victory in 8 of the 11 games.

Yes, but I've been told we stink now and the 7 game win streak is a farce since the Bengals were going to win that game by 35 points and we would have lost to the Pats if you took away two of our touchdowns.

[BearNorth]

Just now, TheBrownBear said:

Yes, but I've been told we stink now and the 7 game win streak is a farce since the Bengals were going to win that game by 35 points and we would have lost to the Pats if you took away two of our touchdowns.

I too am bemused by all the negativity.  Glad to see another Bear in these woods.

[Chuck Schick]

51 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

How much you put down? 5 dollas ?
 

Please keep in mind that @newcam2012 fancies himself as some sort of Vegas insider.  This from the first Bills/Pats game a month or so back:

 

Just locked in the Pats at +4.5 points. Way too many points in what figures to be a close game. Taking the points has been the way to go. Outsiders just don't realize Josh is limited with his elbow. The Pats D is legit. Top 10 in every category. At home in a revenge game. Hopefully, Bills win by 3 or 4 points

$5 is about right


@