The Real Importance (?) of the Number One Seed/Home Field Advantage

[chongli]

15 hours ago, Einstein said:

Could the numbers be misleading because there were 2 one seeds per conference for a long time?

 

Or does the data show the same regardless?

 

There were never two number ne seeds in a conference. Two teams did use to get a bye (and also three before that), but somone was always seeded number two. The data Gugny cited referred to only number one seeds.

 

19 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

 

But if 1 and 2 got byes, there would be six teams left to play one another in the Wild Card round, so three winners total. That would be a problem, since the three winners cannot play the two teams that got a bye. It has to be 2, 4, 8, etc. total.

Edited January 7, 2023 by chongli

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

26 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

 

 

But if 1 and 2 got byes, there would be six teams left to play one another in the Wild Card round, so three winners total. That would be a problem, since three winner cannot play the two teams that get a bye. It has to be 2, 4, 8, etc. total.

 

 This is what I was going to say. If 1 and 2 get a bye, 6 teams would play 3 games which gives you 3 winners and leaves you with 5 teams left. You can start the playoffs with an odd number because factored in is the 1 seed gets a bye, but no round afterwards can end with an odd number of teams. Unless the 1 seed were to get 2 byes, but that's going overboard with the byes.

 

 

 

 

 

[Einstein]

34 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

There were never two one seeds in a conference. Two teams used to get a bye (and also three before that), but somone was always number two. The data Gugny cited referred to only number one seeds.

 

Good point.

[chongli]

Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.

 

Look at this article from The Washington Post (registration required with limited articles for free):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

Quote

 

"NFL home-field advantage was endangered before the pandemic. Now it’s almost extinct."

 

[...]

 

"Last year [in 2020] with stadiums permitting either partial crowds or no fans at all, home-field advantage vanished. Road teams won more often for the first time on record, posting a .502 winning percentage. When NFL stadiums welcomed back fans this season [in 2021], home-field advantage was expected to rejoin them. It has not. Teams playing in their home stadium went 137-131-1, just barely back above .500 and, aside from 2020, the worst record since at least 2002."

 

[...]

 

"For much of the NFL’s existence, frenzied home crowds intimidated visitors and made it difficult for road quarterbacks to communicate and make adjustments at the line of scrimmage, travel presented disorienting challenges for players, and conditions inside stadiums discomforted visiting teams. From 2002 to 2018, home teams won at least 56 percent of the time during all but two seasons and in three seasons won at least 60 percent.

 

"In various ways, effects of those factors have dissipated. In the past three years, home teams have not cracked a 52 percent winning percentage. More than half of this season’s playoff teams — the Bengals, Patriots, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers — posted a better record on the road than at home."

 

 

The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:

 

1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.

2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].

3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]

 

 

 

4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.

5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.

6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

Quote

 

"“There are certain metrics that tell you your guys are going to perform this way,” [Ron] Rivera said. “Certain things as far as the analytics or the sports science tells you about how to travel, what to eat when you travel, what’s the best time to meet, all those things.”

 

Scott Trulock, now the head athletic trainer at Florida State, worked in the NFL for two decades, most recently as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ director of player health and performance. He saw firsthand how road teams chipped away at their disadvantage, from studies about the effects of changing time zones to having players travel wearing compression sleeves."

 

 

Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by chongli

[GreggTX]

The 1st seed gets a bye. No chance to lose to a playoff caliber team, less wear and tear, more time to prepare for round 2 and greatly reduced risk of injury. Those the real advantages of 1st seed. Playing at home isn't much of an advantage compared to all that.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

58 minutes ago, chongli said:

Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.

 

Look at this article from The Washington Post (subscription required with limited articles for free):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:

 

1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.

2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].

3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]

 

 

 

4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.

5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.

6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.

 

 

 

 

 I guess I'll first off with home team win percentages are back up to 56%(55.6%) this year, which is where they were prior to 2018 as stated in the article above. 

 

 The info you provided I'm sure is all true, but those stats are for the regular season, not playoffs. Teams like the Texans aren't going to be in the playoffs, who are going to finish 0-7-1 at home this year. Generally playoff teams have a better home record than teams that don't make the playoffs. As I said above the home team has won 55.6% of the time this year, when you include just teams that have currently clinched a playoff spot the home team's win percentage increases to 77.5%(62-18).

 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

The bye is the important thing.  Sure it’s great to get home field, but I’d rather have a week off and get all the players healthy.  I seriously doubt the Raiders win today anyway.

[Tanoros]

7 hours ago, chongli said:

Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.

 

Look at this article from The Washington Post (subscription required with limited articles for free):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:

 

1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.

2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].

3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]

 

 

 

4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.

5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.

6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.

 

 

 

Thank you for this very detailed post with references and summaries. I really appreciate the effort you put into this. 

[chongli]

7 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 I guess I'll first off with home team win percentages are back up to 56%(55.6%) this year, which is where they were prior to 2018 as stated in the article above. 

 

 The info you provided I'm sure is all true, but those stats are for the regular season, not playoffs. Teams like the Texans aren't going to be in the playoffs, who are going to finish 0-7-1 at home this year. Generally playoff teams have a better home record than teams that don't make the playoffs. As I said above the home team has won 55.6% of the time this year, when you include just teams that have currently clinched a playoff spot the home team's win percentage increases to 77.5%(62-18).

 

 

 

 

 

You bring up a good point I hadn't thought of (and that really wasn't covered in the article). The article mentioned a lot of playoff teams had better records on the road than at home, but didn't go into playoffs. It was also from last season too.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I have changed my tune on the 1 seed.

 

It is looking like the chargers are locked into the 5 seed. So that probably

means the 1 seed gets them in the divisional round. I would rather play the 3/4 winner (bengals or likely ravens). 

[Mango]

It feels like the fan base is really locked in on the one seed. There’s a lot of expectation for this team, and I think it’s more important to Buffalo fans than the Buffalo team right now. 
 

Ultimately you need to play your best football in January. Do that and everything will take care of itself. Once you kick the ball off seeding doesn’t matter. 
 

This is a lot of conversation about nothing as far as I’m concerned. 

[Arkady Renko]

23 hours ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

I really hate the new 7 team format. The 6 team with top 2 getting a bye was perfect. 

The problem is the divisions being too small.  A lot more terrible division winners now.  I’d prefer going back to three division winners and three wild cards or just giving no teams byes. 

[Beast]

The AFC is a meat grinder. The less games you have to play the better, obviously. 
 

Also, playing KC or Cincy is a tough task. Back to back is amazingly difficult.

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, Arkady Renko said:

The problem is the divisions being too small.  A lot more terrible division winners now.  I’d prefer going back to three division winners and three wild cards or just giving no teams byes. 

Yeah, the bye thing is weird. It doesn’t really exist anywhere else in sports. I’m ok with getting rid of it.  

[bills6969]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

The bye is the important thing.  Sure it’s great to get home field, but I’d rather have a week off and get all the players healthy.  I seriously doubt the Raiders win today anyway.

I’d rather have homefield.  Sometimes the bye hurts momentum.

[NickelCity]

23 hours ago, msw2112 said:

This is a difficult situation where nobody is the winner. 

 

Except the chiefs. Home field is a paltry advantage compared to the rest of 1 seed advantages. 

[Airseven]

#1 seed wasn’t about history or numbers. It was about Bills/Chiefs and the way the Bills season ended the past two years.

Losing the bye is crushing. But the Bills still have an advantageous path and saved from Arrowhead.

[chongli]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

Yeah, the bye thing is weird. It doesn’t really exist anywhere else in sports. I’m ok with getting rid of it.  

 

Yeah, I agree. No need for byes. (But MLB has byes too. So does NCAA basketball, to a small extent (the First Four). And so will NCAA football when they expand the playoffs. Also NBA with the play-in games.)

Edited January 7, 2023 by chongli