The Real Importance (?) of the Number One Seed/Home Field Advantage

[Gugny]

The history of the No. 1 seed, by the numbers

 

• Since 1990 playoffs, when postseason expanded to 12 teams/6 per conference
• Lost Divisional round: 16 times (25.8%)
• Lost Championship Game: 14 times (22.6%)
• Lost Super Bowl: 18 times (29.0%)
• Won Super Bowl:  14 times (22.6%)
• 32 of the last 62 Super Bowl participants were No. 1 seeds
• 14 of the last 31 Super Bowl champions were No. 1 seeds (45.1%)

 

 

[NickelCity]

Go Raiders.

[ProcessTruster]

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

[artmalibu]

Ive always thought that the championship game should be at a neutral field.  I dont think it is fair for 1 team to have the advantages of a bye week, play one less game, and have home field.  Teams in a conference dont play the same schedule, so a team could play in the weakest division, play the 2nd weakest division in their conference and the weakest team in the other conference.

[Gregthekeg]

1 hour ago, artmalibu said:

Ive always thought that the championship game should be at a neutral field.  I dont think it is fair for 1 team to have the advantages of a bye week, play one less game, and have home field.  Teams in a conference dont play the same schedule, so a team could play in the weakest division, play the 2nd weakest division in their conference and the weakest team in the other conference.

Like the Chiefs that past couple years and the Pats for 15 years? 

[Tortured Soul]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

I thought the point of adding an eighth playoff team was that no one would have a bye.

[Andrew Son]

It's become even more important since only the #1 seed now gets a bye.

[Long Suffering Fan]

There are so many major advantages that go with the one seed.

 

1.  It means a first round bye and one less playoff game that you have to win.

2. The bye means that in the next round you go in rested and prepared while your opponent doesn't. 

3.  It means that you get to play the weakest team (usually) in the next round.  That is especially huge this year.  There are three teams that stand out above the rest in the AFC.  If Buffalo gets the one seed, that means they would only play one of KC/Cinn.  Finish 2nd or 3rd and you will have to beat both.

4.  And you also get home field advantage in the playoffs.

 

Everyone is always talking about home field.  That is not even close to the most important thing on the above list.

[uticaclub]

I look at the revenue lost on missing a deserved title game

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

18 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

There are so many major advantages that go with the one seed.

 

 

3.  It means that you get to play the weakest team (usually) in the next round.  That is especially huge this year.  There are three teams that stand out above the rest in the AFC.  If Buffalo gets the one seed, that means they would only play one of KC/Cinn.  Finish 2nd or 3rd and you will have to beat both.

 

 

I think the Chargers are molding into one of those teams where we will say there are four top teams in the conference now. Most likely outcome is the Chargers got to KC in the divisional round. KC has had the better of them but i want to say the Chargers have held 4th quarter leads in just about every game the two have played these last couple of years. Chargers can absolutely beat the Chiefs. 

 

But definitely the biggest advantage is you only have to beat one great team most years as opposed to two if you are the 2 or 3 seed. But this year, I would say the Chiefs are going to have to also battle it out with 2 great teams. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The more I think about this I like the 8th team idea and no Byes this year. I can live with the current idea being voted on, but the 8th team seems to be less interruptive and just as fair if not more.

[billsfanmiamioh]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

It's become even more important since only the #1 seed now gets a bye.

I really hate the new 7 team format. The 6 team with top 2 getting a bye was perfect. 

[Einstein]

Could the numbers be misleading because there were 2 one seeds per conference for a long time?

 

Or does the data show the same regardless?

[Gugny]

37 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Could the numbers be misleading because there were 2 one seeds per conference for a long time?

 

Or does the data show the same regardless?

 

Of that, I am not sure.

 

I've always just been a firm believer in "the better team usually wins."

 

[K D]

KC didn't earn a bye. If you give them a bye then you give the #2 team home field. It's the only fair way to do it and balance things out besides having 8 teams and no bye.

[Utah John]

4 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

Either that or make the 1 seed play the 8 seed, so neither gets a bye.

 

It totally sucks that KC could lose to both Buffalo and Cinci in the regular season and still get a bye.

[msw2112]

This is a difficult situation where nobody is the winner.  A co-worker of mine is a Chiefs fan and he is upset because the Chiefs might end up being denied the right to host the AFCCG, which he and I have previously agreed was a huge advantage for getting to the Super Bowl.

 

I'm a huge Bills fan and want them to have the #1 seed, bye, home field, etc., but trying to be objective, this outcome may benefit the Bills.  Prior to the Hamlin injury, the Bengals were leading the game and were driving towards a 2nd score.  While I realize the Bills have come back many times this season, the game was tilting in the Bengals favor, and the Bengals passing game was moving down the field at will.  Without Micah Hyde, Benford being out, Poyer being banged up, and Tre White less than 100%, the Bills' secondary was struggling.  I don't think it would be a stretch to day that the Bengals were in a good position to win that game.  If they did, and the Chiefs beat the Raiders this upcoming weekend, the Bills would have fallen to the 3rd seed and would have had to go to Cincy or KC for the AFCCG, if those teams advanced that far. Now, if the Bills have to play one of these two teams in the AFCCG, it's on a neutral field, which is a more advantageous outcome.

 

While I often disagree with Roger Goodell, he made the comment that nobody is going to be happy about the solution, but an attempt is being made to be fair to all of the teams involved, and I agree with that.

 

I might feel differently if it was the Bills who had taken the ball, stormed down the field to a quick TD, held the opponent to 3 points, then was marching down the field again, with the home crowd behind it, but that's not what happened.  A strong argument can be made that if the Raiders upset the Chiefs on Sunday, that it's the Bengals who got screwed out of the opportunity.  Baltimore may also get screwed.  They could beat the Bengals for a 2nd time this season and have to go to Cincy in the playoffs based on a coin flip.  So again, as stated in the first line above, nobody is a winner.

[Luka]

Maybe the NFL should just adopt the NCAA polling system. Let the computers and the coaches seed the entire playoffs. That'll really get everyone riled up.

[ArtVandalay]

Its almost like playing less games and all games at home helps you 😄

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

17 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

 

14 hours ago, Tortured Soul said:

I thought the point of adding an eighth playoff team was that no one would have a bye.

It is, if there are 8 teams no one gets a bye-otherwise if you give the 1 and 2 seeds a bye they will end up with a bye for 2 weeks