Mango Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Doubt it. The NFL's official website already has the scenario laid out as if they'd go by traditional win % meaning we have no shot at the one seed if KC wins on Saturday. They basically ripped the Bills controlling their own destiny for the one seed from their hands if they go by winning %. Unless they resume the Bills/Bengals game the following week there will definitely be a giant asterisk next to the AFC Champion this year. I think there is some give and take here. If the Bills were all hyped up to replay the game I think the league would make it happen. But I don’t think they are. Something has to give. I don’t think this is a huge deal. I think the Bills are OK with it. 2 1 2 Quote
Boatdrinks Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Well aware of that. Having the one seed would make that much more likely though. Obviously. More likely, yes but I’m not sure how much more. If it was BUFvs KC I’d give the home team maybe a 5% edge or so. Close to a pick em. The QBs are just that good. Either is quite capable of walking out of the opposing stadium with a win. I’d feel more confident about a win vs the Chiefs in Orchard Park vs Arrowhead but I can’t say I’d be a LOT more confident. 5 minutes ago, Mango said: I think there is some give and take here. If the Bills were all hyped up to replay the game I think the league would make it happen. But I don’t think they are. Something has to give. I don’t think this is a huge deal. I think the Bills are OK with it. Good read on the situation and I’d have to agree this seems likely. 1 Quote
Doc Brown Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Boatdrinks said: More likely, yes but I’m not sure how much more. If it was BUFvs KC I’d give the home team maybe a 5% edge or so. Close to a pick em. The QBs are just that good. Either is quite capable of walking out of the opposing stadium with a win. I’d feel more confident about a win vs the Chiefs in Orchard Park vs Arrowhead but I can’t say I’d be a LOT more confident. Home field really isn't what I'm thinking. It's more about only having to play one less game to reach the AFC Championship game (most likely the Chargers in the divisional round) and not having to face both the Chiefs and Bengals to get to the Super Bowl. Let them duke it out in the Divisional round. 2 Quote
Boatdrinks Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Doc Brown said: Home field really isn't what I'm thinking. It's more about only having to play one less game to reach the AFC Championship game (most likely the Chargers in the divisional round) and not having to face both the Chiefs and Bengals to get to the Super Bowl. Let them duke it out in the Divisional round. Got it. Yes the extra game makes it a tougher task for sure. Quote
Doc Brown Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 46 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: Play the starters and get the 2. It gives another team a shot to knock off the Chiefs in the divisional round and the best shot at possibly still being able to host the Championship game if someone takes the Chiefs out 40 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: We're not playing the Chiefs in the divisional round if we get the 2 or 3 seed. 13 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: I didn't say we would. Read it again ...slowly Even reading it slowly another team could knock off the Chiefs in the divisional round in which case we'd still host the AFC Championship game if we make it that far. So in my mind there's not much difference between the 2 and the 3 seed. The home field advantage would be minimal in the divisional round between us and the Bengals IMO. Quote
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, BLeonard said: Really sucks that the Chiefs would benefit here, especially since they lost to both the Bills and Bengals, but it's also most likely the easiest solution. And the easiest of the 3 to beat at home. Quote
Big Blitz Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Would you rather rest your starters against the Pats and likely play Baltimore as the #3 seed.......or win and likely play Miami? Tua is likely done. Miami. The Chargers will beat the Chiefs in RD 2 We could possibly play all three games here as the 2 seed. I hate thinking about this rn with the status of Damar not known. Edited January 5, 2023 by Big Blitz 1 Quote
Buffalo03 Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 27 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Even reading it slowly another team could knock off the Chiefs in the divisional round in which case we'd still host the AFC Championship game if we make it that far. So in my mind there's not much difference between the 2 and the 3 seed. The home field advantage would be minimal in the divisional round between us and the Bengals IMO. The home field advantage would be major. If we are the 3 and play the 2 in the divisional, we have to go to them. If we are the 2, they have to come to us, that's big. Especially, if a team knocks the Chiefs off. We could get all 3 games at home. That's major Quote
GunnerBill Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Would you rather rest your starters against the Pats and likely play Baltimore as the #3 seed.......or win and likely play Miami? If the players want to play I am treating New England like a normal game. 1 Quote
CorkScrewHill Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/04/momentum-builds-for-cancelation-of-bills-bengals-game/ per PFT the league is leaning toward no contest with playoff positioning decided by win percentage. 3 Quote
TBBills Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 47 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/04/momentum-builds-for-cancelation-of-bills-bengals-game/ per PFT the league is leaning toward no contest with playoff positioning decided by win percentage. Playoffs start this weekend then. Quote
John from Riverside Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 I am honestly more concerned about the mindset of our team than I am about any opponent we might face I saw a broken team on Monday night. It looks on their faces are still in my mind. But I’ll tell you what, watching them all gather together at the end of that came while that ambulance drove off the field, kneeling down I felt like they were never more close than that moment 1 Quote
Rochesterfan Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 6 hours ago, BLeonard said: Really sucks that the Chiefs would benefit here, especially since they lost to both the Bills and Bengals, but it's also most likely the easiest solution. Not really - I think 100% it is what both the Bills and Bengals would prefer over having to shoehorn the game in. This fits well within the NFL rules that are established and logistically makes the most sense. Yep KC gets a small benefit potentially and Baltimore gets slightly screwed, but it does not change the playoff teams and I imagine both the Bills and Bengals would sign off on this in a minute to prevent every other scenario presented - where they have to make up the game. There is not an option/rule that allows for or makes any sense to award a victory in a game in the 1st quarter that can not be completed. The NFL was not and should not consider coin toss/lottery ball or any other method of creating a false victor in the game. There has always been exactly 2 choices in the outcome: complete the game or declare it a no contest as those are the options in the NFL rulebook for this situation. If they go no contest - then it was always going to move to winning percentage as that is what they established and what was talked about and agreed to during Covid if any games were cancelled. 1 1 Quote
YoloinOhio Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Mango said: I think there is some give and take here. If the Bills were all hyped up to replay the game I think the league would make it happen. But I don’t think they are. Something has to give. I don’t think this is a huge deal. I think the Bills are OK with it. I agree and I get the feeling neither team prefers to replay the game and will just let the playoff chips fall where they may. Bengals advanced to the SB as the 4 seed last year so don’t think they particularly care and the bills are focused on their brother fighting for his life and winning the games still in front of them, wherever and whatever they may be. Edited January 5, 2023 by YoloinOhio 2 1 Quote
Doc Brown Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 30 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: Not really - I think 100% it is what both the Bills and Bengals would prefer over having to shoehorn the game in. This fits well within the NFL rules that are established and logistically makes the most sense. Yep KC gets a small benefit potentially and Baltimore gets slightly screwed, but it does not change the playoff teams and I imagine both the Bills and Bengals would sign off on this in a minute to prevent every other scenario presented - where they have to make up the game. There is not an option/rule that allows for or makes any sense to award a victory in a game in the 1st quarter that can not be completed. The NFL was not and should not consider coin toss/lottery ball or any other method of creating a false victor in the game. There has always been exactly 2 choices in the outcome: complete the game or declare it a no contest as those are the options in the NFL rulebook for this situation. If they go no contest - then it was always going to move to winning percentage as that is what they established and what was talked about and agreed to during Covid if any games were cancelled. Probably but the Chiefs gaining significantly on the Bills (and possibly Bengals) misfortune seems wrong. Especially since they lost to both. I don't see the downside of an eight team playoffs just this one year in the AFC just to avoid giving the Chiefs a bye week. Three games on Saturday. Three on Sunday. One on Monday. Sign me up. I'm sure the NFL and the tv networks won't mind. Quote
zow2 Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/04/momentum-builds-for-cancelation-of-bills-bengals-game/ per PFT the league is leaning toward no contest with playoff positioning decided by win percentage. I'm glad to hear this. Yesterday there seemed to be momemtum from National media and fans to play the game for the "integrity of the league". Right from the beginning there did not seem to be any reasonable way to flex in the Cincinnati game and it doesn't seem like the right thing to do anyway. It's another unprecedented situation (like the Covid year), and will have to be an unprecedented response ( no makeup). It sucks that the Chiefs may end up with the #1 seed when it was Buffalo who had control of the seeding but that's life. As i mentioned in other threads, I don't think either Buffalo or Cincinnati would be intimidated to play at Arrowhead. Edited January 5, 2023 by zow2 2 Quote
colin Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 if we win on sunday and kc drops one vs the raiders it will be very hard to not see that as mana from the football gods. 2 Quote
SCBills Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) I agree it’s likely the Bills & Bengals could not have much of an appetite for playing this game in a Week 19 while everyone else is off. Im fine with it too. I do think there is value in getting the two seed, and two home games. Especially given the fact it seems likely the Divisional Round will be either Bengals at Bills or Bills at Bengals. If it was ANYONE other than the Chiefs, and “never played a road playoff game Mahomes”, the team benefitting off this tragedy would be much easier to swallow. Edited January 5, 2023 by SCBills 2 Quote
CorkScrewHill Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, zow2 said: I'm glad to hear this. Yesterday there seemed to be momemtum from National media and fans to play the game for the "integrity of the league". Right from the beginning there did not seem to be any reasonable way to flex in the Cincinnati game and it doesn't seem like the right thing to do anyway. It's another unprecedented situation (like the Covid year), and will have to be an unprecedented response ( no makeup). It sucks that the Chiefs may end up with the #1 seed when it was Buffalo who had control of the seeding but that's life. As i mentioned in other threads, I don't think either Buffalo or Cincinnati would be intimidated to play at Arrowhead. Agreed .. The Bengals have won 3 straight against the Chiefs and the Bills are 2-1 with Josh walking off the field in the loss with the lead. 2 1 Quote
BLeonard Posted January 5, 2023 Posted January 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: Not really - I think 100% it is what both the Bills and Bengals would prefer over having to shoehorn the game in. This fits well within the NFL rules that are established and logistically makes the most sense. Yep KC gets a small benefit potentially and Baltimore gets slightly screwed, but it does not change the playoff teams and I imagine both the Bills and Bengals would sign off on this in a minute to prevent every other scenario presented - where they have to make up the game. There is not an option/rule that allows for or makes any sense to award a victory in a game in the 1st quarter that can not be completed. The NFL was not and should not consider coin toss/lottery ball or any other method of creating a false victor in the game. There has always been exactly 2 choices in the outcome: complete the game or declare it a no contest as those are the options in the NFL rulebook for this situation. If they go no contest - then it was always going to move to winning percentage as that is what they established and what was talked about and agreed to during Covid if any games were cancelled. Oh, I don't disagree that it's a better solution than shoehorning the game in. Just kinda sucks that, after all of the focus on getting the #1 seed, it's gone because of this and the one team that both the Bengals and Bills beat head to head is the beneficiary. Thinking about it more, I'm curious why they couldn't use another metric besides winning percentage, since there would be an uneven amount of games played. Why not strength of victory? At least that would allow the uneven number of wins to be weighted in an even metric. Another idea that I've seen floated is to split the benefits of the #1 seed between two teams if all three win this weekend. Give KC the option of either HFA OR the bye. The Bills would get the other. As I've said in other posts, there's no clean, simple answer and some team (or teams) are gonna get shafted a little here. 1 Quote
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