Playoff Solutions Assuming they don’t replay the Bengals game.

[stlbills13]

I don't see the NFL pushing the playoffs back a week. It's way more disruptive than people think. And all teams except the Bills and Bengals getting a bye week is pretty unfair at this point in the season. I don't really consider the last 10 days to be a "mini" bye week for the Bills and Bengals consider they practiced/prepared for a game and the mental/emotional toll it took.

 

There is no fair solution. I am probably okay with just using win % even though it gifts the Chiefs the 1 seed. Honestly I'm not 100% convinced the Bills are going to win this weekend anyway given the desperateness of the Patriots and the emotionality of the Bills so it might not be gifting them anything. Plus, this Chiefs team looks awfully vulnerable (although they could flip a switch in the playoffs).

 

Take the 2 or 3 seed and go win a Super Bowl

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, mikemac2001 said:

Right now if they do a no contest the H2H wins for the bills and bengals have zero value bc of the uneven games which is unfair it should mean something 

Which is why using a random number generator (like the Draft Lottery) to remove a Chiefs game and put them on equal footing could be used.

[Greg S]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

First, the Chiefs are not losing to the Raiders. But even if they did, then the Bills and Bengals could still choose to forfeit Week 19. What’s the problem? 

 

Chiefs haven't been playing all that. They are winning but struggling to do so. The Raiders gave SF a hell of game. The way they moved the ball against that defense was very impressive. These teams hate each other so I am sure the Raiders would love to knock the Chiefs off from the #1 seed. KC will probably win but an upset isn't out of the question.

[BillyBilliams]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

First, the Chiefs are not losing to the Raiders. But even if they did, then the Bills and Bengals could still choose to forfeit Week 19. What’s the problem? 

 

 How do you know this?  They needed OT to beat 1 win Houston.  They won 2 games by a combined 9 points vs a 4 win Broncos team.  They squeezed a 30-29 comeback victory against the very team they play this week, during a time the Raiders were in a tailspin.  They needed OT to beat Tennessee.  

 

What are we talking about here?  The Chiefs are not some juggernaut.  They play down to their opponents, and the Colts were able to punish them.  Tennessee, Denver, and Houston nearly did.  

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, BillyBilliams said:

 

The logistics in 1990 is COMPLETELY different than the logistics in 2023.  We are talking 33 years ago.  A lot has changed since then.  It would be a logistical nightmare for the NFL to do this.  Quite frankly, the juice isn't worth the squeeze for the NFL.  That's why I think they will just "No Contest" this game.  Buffalo will currently be the 2 seed.  

 

As for the asterisk comment, if anything, the Chiefs would be the only ones getting the asterisk.  They lost to both Buffalo and Cincy and would have essentially got the 1 seed based on a tragedy.

I’m not trying to be ‘that guy’, but what logistics? Nobody pre-plans for a playoff game. Nobody knows if they’re hosting and when, or where. The only pre-planning is for the Super Bowl, and that date/venue would not change. I cannot believe anyone gives a rats behind if the Pro Bowl nonsense is cancelled. Not even the players. Half of them opt out already…and this year it’s been reduced to a skills competition. You think the two Super Bowl teams are going to complain about getting to play in the Super Bowl..hardly? You think the other First Round teams are going to complain about getting a week of rest…hardly? 

[BillyBilliams]

4 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

Right now if they do a no contest the H2H wins for the bills and bengals have zero value bc of the uneven games which is unfair it should mean something 

 

I know this.  The win % alone would be good enough for the Bills to finish ahead in the standings.  People are acting like the Chiefs are world beaters.  Their schedule has been incredibly lackluster and they've played down to opponents and even lost to a bad team.  The Chiefs had their "Jaguars loss" week 3.  They also nearly had a couple more of them in 3 of the last 4 weeks.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, BillyBilliams said:

 

They could just do what people are suggesting and make it a complete wash.  Cincinnati can still be the 2 seed if they win and Buffalo loses.  Buffalo can still be the 1 seed if they win and KC loses.

 

That is what will happen. This scenario is probably least fair for the Bengals but it is what it is. Patriots will be playing for their playoff lives and who knows, we might treat the game as a pre-season type game. So Bengals could still get back up to the 2 seed. And with the way the Chiefs have been playing and from what we saw from the Raiders last week, who knows, both teams could have a shot for the 1 seed. 

 

One thing I just thought about, if the Chiefs win Saturday night, the Bills are locked into either the 2 or 3 seed. It seems the Ravens will be locked into the 6 seed it looks like. The 7 seed is open to the Pats or Dolphins in the most likely scenarios. The Dolphins seemingly have the talent to hang with the Bills on most Sunday's and even beat them. We haven't seen that same talent or coaching from the Patriots. If the Bills beat the Patriots, the Bills lock themselves into the 2 seed and by eliminating the Patriots, as long as the Dolphins beat the Jets (big IF at this point) the Dolphins come back to Buffalo as the 7 seed. That is my least desirable WC match up other than the Chargers which does not seem possible in terms of seeding.

 

So if the Bills play a pre-season game against the Patriots, holding some players out like Poyer, Tarron,  certainly for instance and maybe Morse and Milano and the Patriots emerge victorious the Bills could lock themselves into the three seed with a WC match up against the Ravens rather than the Dolphins. 

 

All that said, I'm not sure the coaching staff sees much of a difference between Dolphins vs. Ravens as an opponent. 

[BillyBilliams]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m not trying to be ‘that guy’, but what logistics? Nobody pre-plans for a playoff game. Nobody knows if they’re hosting and when, or where. The only pre-planning is for the Super Bowl, and that date/venue would not change. I cannot believe anyone gives a rats behind if the Pro Bowl nonsense is cancelled. Not even the players. Half of them opt out already…and this year it’s been reduced to a skills competition. You think the two Super Bowl teams are going to complain about getting to play in the Super Bowl..hardly? You think the other First Round teams are going to complain about getting a week of rest…hardly? 

 

You are comparing a playoff game to the Super Bowl?  I didn't know the AFC Divisional Playoff had some extravagant 30 minute halftime show.  I didn't know there is a week long "Super Bowl Experience" fair type of event?  The Super Bowl is their biggest money maker.  It takes A LOT to get it prepared.  They were able to do it recently, and the NFL admitted it was one of the hardest things they've ever had to do.  Yes, you get to sit on your couch and enjoy the game, but there is a ton of things that need to be done leading up to the Super Bowl.  

[Beast]

I believe the two easiest solutions are play the Bills/Bengals game in 2 Sundays, pushing the playoff games back a week but keeping the SB date the same, or…..

 

Not playing the Bills/Bengals game and allowing 8 teams into the AFC playoffs because teams are fighting for the top seed and fighting to get in. It wouldn’t be fair to teams with playoff aspirations to not make it because a game isn’t played. Also, nobody would get the top seed and no bye.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, BillyBilliams said:

 

You are comparing a playoff game to the Super Bowl?  I didn't know the AFC Divisional Playoff had some extravagant 30 minute halftime show.  I didn't know there is a week long "Super Bowl Experience" fair type of event?  The Super Bowl is their biggest money maker.  It takes A LOT to get it prepared.  They were able to do it recently, and the NFL admitted it was one of the hardest things they've ever had to do.  Yes, you get to sit on your couch and enjoy the game, but there is a ton of things that need to be done leading up to the Super Bowl.  
 

 

There’s virtually nothing that happens in the bye week before the Super Bowl. Very, very few fans will show up in Phoenix an entire week before the game. The only people in town are people who already live there. If they want to drive over to Glendale to the NFL experience they still can and will. 
 

Sorry for the formatting…doing this off my cellphone 

Edited January 4, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[BillyBilliams]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

That is what will happen. This scenario is probably least fair for the Bengals but it is what it is. Patriots will be playing for their playoff lives and who knows, we might treat the game as a pre-season type game. So Bengals could still get back up to the 2 seed. And with the way the Chiefs have been playing and from what we saw from the Raiders last week, who knows, both teams could have a shot for the 1 seed. 

 

One thing I just thought about, if the Chiefs win Saturday night, the Bills are locked into either the 2 or 3 seed. It seems the Ravens will be locked into the 6 seed it looks like. The 7 seed is open to the Pats or Dolphins in the most likely scenarios. The Dolphins seemingly have the talent to hang with the Bills on most Sunday's and even beat them. We haven't seen that same talent or coaching from the Patriots. If the Bills beat the Patriots, the Bills lock themselves into the 2 seed and by eliminating the Patriots, as long as the Dolphins beat the Jets (big IF at this point) the Dolphins come back to Buffalo as the 7 seed. That is my least desirable WC match up other than the Chargers which does not seem possible in terms of seeding.

 

So if the Bills play a pre-season game against the Patriots, holding some players out like Poyer, Tarron,  certainly for instance and maybe Morse and Milano and the Patriots emerge victorious the Bills could lock themselves into the three seed with a WC match up against the Ravens rather than the Dolphins. 

 

All that said, I'm not sure the coaching staff sees much of a difference between Dolphins vs. Ravens as an opponent. 

 

I don't see how it's the least fair.  They needed 3 components going into this game to even have a shot at the 1 seed.  They needed to win that game, they needed KC to lose, and they needed to win their last game vs Baltimore.  They had a 6% chance of being the 1 seed.  The Bills were 80% before the game and now a 20% or less if it's a no-contest, loss, or tie.  

 

The Bengals were NOT the same record as the Bills.  They had 4 losses and the Bills/Chiefs had 3 losses.  It sucks that they lose their opportunity, but at the end of the day, they were a full game behind both teams.

[boyst]

The NFL MUST let it be known to all teams what the plan is for Bengals/Bills before games begin Thursday night.

 

The trickle down effect is too much for every team. To simply wait until after the results to then implement an unveiled planned would seem way too orchestrated.

 

They need to say if the Bills and Bengals win and KC loses then Buffalo 1, Bengals 2, Chiefs 3 because Cinci beat KC.

 

if KC and Cin win and Buffalo loses then Cinci 1, Buf 2, KC 3 because Buffalo beat KC

 

if KC and Buf win and Cin loses then Buf 1, KC 2, Cin 3

 

if all 3 win then Buffalo 1, Cin and KC coin flip since same Cin never had chance to get win. Buffalo has better win % than KC.

 

Or

 

if all 3 win they do a random number drawing off a statistical basis to remove a Chiefs game to make records match - this will not effect the opponents results.  The ratings for that show would be yuge. 

 

Or just draw random weighted numbers like an NHL draft lottery for seeds.

 

 

Regardless. I see no way in the world the NFL plays the makeup remainder. The teams won't want injury most importantly 

[stlbills13]

If the week off before the Super Bowl is so meaningless and can be taken away without any thought, why do they have it in the first place? 

 

There are behind the scenes events that happen that is dependent on what teams are in the Super Bowl including partnering with airlines, hotels, etc. Airlines/hotels are required to block certain flights into the Super Bowl city in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl and then they release (and jack up prices) flights from the Super Bowl participant cities to the Super Bowl host city. For example, if Buffalo and Philly play in the Super Bowl, flights out of NY and PA to Arizona are going to be pricier than flights from say Boston to Arizona. I know it's just corporate greed but that is the model of the NFL.

 

Obviously the teams care about the week off too. The players are totally rested for the Super Bowl leading to high quality play (yes high quality play is going to happen either way - it's the Super Bowl, but this allows for better health too). This also allows for proper game planning. Even getting NFL teams to the Super Bowl is a logistical nightmare so this allows teams extra practice/prep days that would otherwise be taken away by a travel day.

 

The week off before the Super Bowl is a big deal. A very big deal. But I do believe taking it away in this very unique situation is a reasonable scenario. I just don't think they will.

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by stlbills13

[BillyBilliams]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

I believe the two easiest solutions are play the Bills/Bengals game in 2 Sundays, pushing the playoff games back a week but keeping the SB date the same, or…..

 

Not playing the Bills/Bengals game and allowing 8 teams into the AFC playoffs because teams are fighting for the top seed and fighting to get in. It wouldn’t be fair to teams with playoff aspirations to not make it because a game isn’t played. Also, nobody would get the top seed and no bye.

 

Again, this is not fair to the Bills or the Bengals.  They get a standalone game for what?  To decide who's the 2 or 3 seed?  So Cincinnati wins, they are the 2 seed....woohoo!!!!  Now they get to play the 7 seeded Dolphins who got an extra week to prepare for the Bengals.  The 3 seeded Bills just played a hard fought game, lost, but now the 6 seeded Ravens got an extra week to let Lamar Jackson rest up and get healthy.  

 

Why are you wanting to do a standalone game so the 6 and 7 seeds are benefitted?  Makes no sense to me.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, BillyBilliams said:

 

I don't see how it's the least fair.  They needed 3 components going into this game to even have a shot at the 1 seed.  They needed to win that game, they needed KC to lose, and they needed to win their last game vs Baltimore.  They had a 6% chance of being the 1 seed.  The Bills were 80% before the game and now a 20% or less if it's a no-contest, loss, or tie.  

 

 

I'm speaking unfair only in reference to the 2 seed for the Bengals, not the 1 seed. The Bengals had a very good shot at jumping into the 2 seed. But the most likely scenario we will see is that entering Saturday's games, the Bengals will be the 3 seed, Bills the 2 seed and Chiefs the 1 seed. And all three will have a chance to move up and down anywhere in the top 3 pending this weekends games. 

 

I was thinking, if the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals all end the season with 4 losses, why not just seed  KC #3 due to head to head losses to both the Bengals and Bills? Then the normal tie breakers go into effect for seeding Bills and Bengals. So in this scenario, Bills and Chiefs lose week 18 and Benglas win week 18.

2 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

If the week off before the Super Bowl is so meaningless and can be taken away without any thought, why do they have it in the first place? 

 

 

They want the teams playing in it to be as healthy as possible without taking an entire month off. That is first and foremost. Second is they can probably make more money on the buildup to the game. 

[stlbills13]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I was thinking, if the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals all end the season with 4 losses, why not just seed  KC #3 due to head to head losses to both the Bengals and Bills? Then the normal tie breakers go into effect for seeding Bills and Bengals. So in this scenario, Bills and Chiefs lose week 18 and Benglas win week 18.

 

Yeah I truly believe the best way to seed the teams would be to rank them based on the number of losses each team has. I know that's unfair to Cincy since they could have given the Bills a 4th loss but somebody is going to get screwed here no matter what you do. So if all teams won this weekend, I would group KC and BUF together (3 losses) and BUF gets the 1 seed based on H2H. Then Cincy gets the 3 seed due to 4 losses. BUF or CIN are going to have a legitimate complaint in almost any scenario and that includes making them finish the game. 

[BillyBilliams]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm speaking unfair only in reference to the 2 seed for the Bengals, not the 1 seed. The Bengals had a very good shot at jumping into the 2 seed. But the most likely scenario we will see is that entering Saturday's games, the Bengals will be the 3 seed, Bills the 2 seed and Chiefs the 1 seed. And all three will have a chance to move up and down anywhere in the top 3 pending this weekends games. 

 

I was thinking, if the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals all end the season with 4 losses, why not just seed  KC #3 due to head to head losses to both the Bengals and Bills? Then the normal tie breakers go into effect for seeding Bills and Bengals. So in this scenario, Bills and Chiefs lose week 18 and Benglas win week 18.

 

The Bengals still have that shot to being the 2 seed.  It's the same component as needed before Monday Night happened.  They needed a Bills loss and they needed to win out.  If Buffalo loses on Sunday to New England and Cincy wins vs Baltimore, then Cincy has the tie breaker and are the 2 seed.  So nothing changes for them.  They just lost the VERY unlikely ability to be the 1 seed.

[SoCal Deek]

The week leading up to the Super Bowl isn’t a big deal for anyone other than for a few off-brand sponsors hosting a party somewhere. Very few. Do the teams need the time? No they don’t. Not so sure? Georgia and TCU are about to play for a championship this week and neither team, nor their fans, nor any sponsors, got a bye. 

[Just in Atlanta]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I really don't think it is the most fair. You give every other AFC playoff team a week's bye. 

 

The best of a bad bunch option is just to cancel that gave, leave everything else unchanged and decide seeding on conference record. 

Fail to see that logic. 

• Cinci doesn't get the chance to move up.
• KC gets the No. 1 seed automatically - leaving us to play yet again in KC
• We played a half quarter; other than the emotional trauma it's a partial bye week. 
• There are probably many other results of a missed game as well. 

 

[BillyBilliams]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

The week leading up to the Super Bowl isn’t a big deal for anyone other than for a few off-brand sponsors hosting a party somewhere. Very few. Do the teams need the time? No they don’t. Not so sure? Georgia and TCU are about to play for a championship this week and neither team, nor their fans, nor any sponsors, got a bye. 

 

A college football National Championship is nowhere close to the same scope as a Super Bowl event.  The Super Bowl is a global event.  College football is a national event.  I think you're taking the SB for granted.