Mock Draft simulations....

[Bill from NYC]

On 1/12/2023 at 9:15 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

@BillfromNYC, @GunnerBill, @MAJBobby what are your thoughts on Alex Forsyth, center from Oregon? 

Sorry, I never saw him play.

 

9 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We don’t need a safety in the 1st. There are a ton of very good safeties in this draft class that can be had in the 3-5th rounds.  Trey Dean (UF), Hicks (Cinci), Jay Ward (LSU). If we must bag a better quality one, there is Brandon Joseph (ND), Brown (PSU), Battle (Bama), Skinner (BSU) who can be had in day 2. This draft is loaded with great safety talent, no need to take 1 in the 1st round. 

Brian Branch from Alabama is even better than Battle.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Bill from NYC

[OldTimer1960]

14 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We don’t need a safety in the 1st. There are a ton of very good safeties in this draft class that can be had in the 3-5th rounds.  Trey Dean (UF), Hicks (Cinci), Jay Ward (LSU). If we must bag a better quality one, there is Brandon Joseph (ND), Brown (PSU), Battle (Bama), Skinner (BSU) who can be had in day 2. This draft is loaded with great safety talent, no need to take 1 in the 1st round. 

But the draft is much less loaded at WR and OL - particularly G and C for first round talent.

[Bill from NYC]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But the draft is much less loaded at WR and OL - particularly G and C for first round talent.

Then perhaps they should trade out of round 1 and load up on the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Perhaps they could even acquire a #1 in 2024. 

 

Either way, another first round db would be the essence of stupidity on a team with Josh Allen.

[OldTimer1960]

55 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Then perhaps they should trade out of round 1 and load up on the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Perhaps they could even acquire a #1 in 2024. 

 

Either way, another first round db would be the essence of stupidity on a team with Josh Allen.

Agree in general.  Offense needs more help - especially WR and IOL.  I think there will be good slot receiver options at end of first and maybe late 2nd.  Outside receivers looks like a pretty weak class, but still a long way to go in evaluating the prospects.  
 

I’ve read some who believe there are only 5 or so IOL players worthy of 1st or 2nd day picks.

[Bill from NYC]

13 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree in general.  Offense needs more help - especially WR and IOL.  I think there will be good slot receiver options at end of first and maybe late 2nd.  Outside receivers looks like a pretty weak class, but still a long way to go in evaluating the prospects.  
 

I’ve read some who believe there are only 5 or so IOL players worthy of 1st or 2nd day picks.

Agreed and to go a step further, I think that this is a comparatively weak draft at most positions. I think that the overall quality of college football went down in 2022.

Jmo.

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree in general.  Offense needs more help - especially WR and IOL.  I think there will be good slot receiver options at end of first and maybe late 2nd.  Outside receivers looks like a pretty weak class, but still a long way to go in evaluating the prospects.  
 

I’ve read some who believe there are only 5 or so IOL players worthy of 1st or 2nd day picks.

Hopefully Cyrus is there from Florida when we pick. He plays with a mean streak. If our first round pick is anything other than WR or C/OG I’m going to be mad. 

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

 

Brian Branch from Alabama is even better than Battle.

 

And will go top 25 I think. 

11 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Hopefully Cyrus is there from Florida when we pick. He plays with a mean streak. If our first round pick is anything other than WR or C/OG I’m going to be mad. 

 

Unless they are finally willing to give up on being a zone running team he isn't a scheme fit. 

[RyanC883]

On 1/16/2023 at 11:41 AM, OldTimer1960 said:

RB might be the most dependent position.  Without adequate blocking and other threats (passing weapons) and schemes to draw defenses’ attention and fool them, a RB can be neutralized.  This is pretty true of many positions, but I think a bit more true for RB.

 

Not opposed to drafting a great RB prospect, but I think improving the OL and providing more passing threats that spread defenders thin can also help the run game.

 

At present, I don’t think the OL is solid enough that an investment in a high-end RB is warranted without a plan to also address the OL.

 

Overall offensive weaponry allows every aspect of the offense to be better than the individual parts.

I agree, but Robinson is thought of as a top ten talent, but a devalued position. I would try 2nd round for too center/guard, and bolster OT in FA. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I agree, but Robinson is thought of as a top ten talent, but a devalued position. I would try 2nd round for too center/guard, and bolster OT in FA. 

I think their hands are going to be severely tied by cap in FA.  Anyone they can sign is likely a low-end FA.

[DuckyBoys]

dont care as long as he starts day 1  Please no more projects

[RyanC883]

Here is a mock I did today. Feel free to mock or compliment it (all rounds, no trades PFF simulator) 

 

RD1: 27: S-Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M.  I figure we lose Poyer, and Johnson can fit right in.  I know, we need a WR and a bunch of offensive toys, but he is BPA here.  

 

R2: 59:  WR-Jalin Hyatt, Tenn.  Risk is only one year of high production, but upside is there to be a true #2 or eventual #1 WR.  

 

R3: 91  RB-Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss.  Compliment for Cook.  Good back with speed/strength/catching.  

 

Rd 4: 130:  C/G Jarrett Patterson.  Eventual replacement for Morse while a starter at G.  Seems like a day 1 player.  Allowed no sacks through Jr. year.   

 

R4:139: LB-Owen Pappoe, Auburn.  Replacement for Edmunds.  Not as athletic, but can hold up in the middle.    

 

R5: 164:  G/OT Jaxon Kirkland, Washington.  Not sure he lasts this long, but another guy who could potentially start day 1.  Some positional flexibility.  

 

R6: 205:  DT-Cameron Young, Miss State.  The need to perhaps replace Oliver or add another weapon/stout player in the middle of the DL.  Strength is more this guys game. 

 

R7: 247:  WR-Jayden Reed, MSU:  Not sure he lasts this long.  Speedy slot WR.  Not sure we need another slot, but great value here and will be a contributor.  More weapons for JA.  

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

On 1/25/2023 at 2:10 PM, RyanC883 said:

Here is a mock I did today. Feel free to mock or compliment it (all rounds, no trades PFF simulator) 

 

RD1: 27: S-Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M.  I figure we lose Poyer, and Johnson can fit right in.  I know, we need a WR and a bunch of offensive toys, but he is BPA here.  

 

R2: 59:  WR-Jalin Hyatt, Tenn.  Risk is only one year of high production, but upside is there to be a true #2 or eventual #1 WR.  

 

R3: 91  RB-Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss.  Compliment for Cook.  Good back with speed/strength/catching.  

 

Rd 4: 130:  C/G Jarrett Patterson.  Eventual replacement for Morse while a starter at G.  Seems like a day 1 player.  Allowed no sacks through Jr. year.   

 

R4:139: LB-Owen Pappoe, Auburn.  Replacement for Edmunds.  Not as athletic, but can hold up in the middle.    

 

R5: 164:  G/OT Jaxon Kirkland, Washington.  Not sure he lasts this long, but another guy who could potentially start day 1.  Some positional flexibility.  

 

R6: 205:  DT-Cameron Young, Miss State.  The need to perhaps replace Oliver or add another weapon/stout player in the middle of the DL.  Strength is more this guys game. 

 

R7: 247:  WR-Jayden Reed, MSU:  Not sure he lasts this long.  Speedy slot WR.  Not sure we need another slot, but great value here and will be a contributor.  More weapons for JA.  

 

 

Safety or CB isn’t exciting, but look at the receivers in this division - Miami has Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle along with a good TE and RB.  If they had Tua, they would have won the Wild Card game.  Jets have Garrett Wilson who killed the Bills this year.  I think likely they add another WR early and will have the immortal Breece Hall at RB (if healthy).

[Bill from NYC]

On 1/25/2023 at 2:10 PM, RyanC883 said:

 

RD1: 27: S-Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M.  I figure we lose Poyer, and Johnson can fit right in.  I know, we need a WR and a bunch of offensive toys, but he is BPA here.  

 

The above represents exactly what is wrong with this franchise, and has been since the Levy days.

 

Josh Allen is forced to run and is chased around the field when passing, but let's not get him protection. Let's draft a 1st round safety.

 

Sadly, this is exactly what McDermott will do, and he might even trade up to do so. 

 

Unbelieveable.

 

 

[RyanC883]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

The above represents exactly what is wrong with this franchise, and has been since the Levy days.

 

Josh Allen is forced to run and is chased around the field when passing, but let's not get him protection. Let's draft a 1st round safety.

 

Sadly, this is exactly what McDermott will do, and he might even trade up to do so. 

 

Unbelieveable.

 

 

 

to be clear, I would not like that pick, but I think what is really wrong is not going BPA. He was BPA in that scenario.  Ideally the Bills would trade down to grab more picks, then get an OT, Patterson, WRs, etc.  

[Bill from NYC]

50 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

to be clear, I would not like that pick, but I think what is really wrong is not going BPA. He was BPA in that scenario.  Ideally the Bills would trade down to grab more picks, then get an OT, Patterson, WRs, etc.  

At this point I am all for a trade down. I have not studied this draft class really at all, but having said that; it does not appear to be a strong one. Of course, we need the right offer to trade down. When McDermott tossed away our #10, we went all the way down to 27 as I recall. We were (imo) fleeced by the Ciiefs, and I obviously do not want the Bills to be undercompensated again. 

 

Our interior OL is in bad shape. The guards played poorly, and Morse is a huge injury risk with his concussion history. Frankly, I am surprised that he lasted this long. It would be great if we could develop a LT and move Dawkins to guard. Then of course we are also in dire need of wide receivers. 

 

Truthfully, I have mixed emotions about the "BPA" thing. For instance, the best college player right now really might be that young TE at Georgia. Should a TE ever be an early 1st round pick. Or a RB, OG, ILB, or Safety?  We would never ask this question about a pass rushing DE, LT, WR or of course QB.

 

In any event, thanks for the great dialogue. 

 

 

[RyanC883]

12 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

At this point I am all for a trade down. I have not studied this draft class really at all, but having said that; it does not appear to be a strong one. Of course, we need the right offer to trade down. When McDermott tossed away our #10, we went all the way down to 27 as I recall. We were (imo) fleeced by the Ciiefs, and I obviously do not want the Bills to be undercompensated again. 

 

Our interior OL is in bad shape. The guards played poorly, and Morse is a huge injury risk with his concussion history. Frankly, I am surprised that he lasted this long. It would be great if we could develop a LT and move Dawkins to guard. Then of course we are also in dire need of wide receivers. 

 

Truthfully, I have mixed emotions about the "BPA" thing. For instance, the best college player right now really might be that young TE at Georgia. Should a TE ever be an early 1st round pick. Or a RB, OG, ILB, or Safety?  We would never ask this question about a pass rushing DE, LT, WR or of course QB.

 

In any event, thanks for the great dialogue. 

 

 

 

Thanks, enjoy the dialogue.  The BPA thing is difficult.  On the one hand, you have the issue you raised: what if it's not a premier position (imagine a kicker who could kick 65 yard FGs routinely, likely BPA, but still...).  On the other hand, you have Bean going targeted at positions like DE and drafting Basham over Humphry.  Or AJ over Logan Wilson (if you need D), or Van Jefferson or Ersa Cleveland.  

 

I think a TE is a premium enough position for me to go BPA if the guy profiles as a game-changer (of course, having an OC who knows how to use his is a different story).  

 

Hopefully a great WR or OT falls to us and we don't need to get fleeced trading back.  I like the idea of getting an OT and moving Dawkins to guard.  Then draft Patterson in the 2nd as the other G who takes over at C when Morse retires. 

 

I'm just getting started reading about the prospects, but it does seem to lack high end talent, although does seem to offer a decent amount of OL help, which we sorely need (although no "studs" pop when we pick).  

[bills6969]

2-33 Cody Mauch T (trade down with Houston for their 3rd)

2-59 Garrett Williams DB

3-65 Zach Charbonnet RB

3-91 Noah Sewell LB

4-130 Jarrett Patterson G

5-164 Fabien Lovett DT

6-205 Zack Kuntz TE

7-247 Dante Stills DT

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by bills6969

[Gregg]

Looks like the Bears are willing to trade the #1 pick.

 

Dov Kleiman on Twitter: "The #Bears have decided to go ahead with Justin Fields as the franchise QB and will try to trade the 1st overall pick in the draft instead of drafting a quarterback prospect, according to @AlbertBreer Fields impressed the Bears organization on how he handled the 2022 season https://t.co/aliCw3F8xV" / Twitter

[JaCrispy]

On 2/1/2023 at 11:31 AM, Gregg said:

Looks like the Bears are willing to trade the #1 pick.

 

Dov Kleiman on Twitter: "The #Bears have decided to go ahead with Justin Fields as the franchise QB and will try to trade the 1st overall pick in the draft instead of drafting a quarterback prospect, according to @AlbertBreer Fields impressed the Bears organization on how he handled the 2022 season https://t.co/aliCw3F8xV" / Twitter

I could see this backfiring…

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

Using proffootbalnetwork mock draft simulator, here's a draft I like.  We swap our !st rd pick with KC and get a 2nd in 2024 and give up a 5th rd in 2024.  Then swap that 30th pick from KC and our 4th rd pick with Ari for pick 34 and a 2nd Rd in 2024.  So that gives us 3 2nd picks in 2024.  Then 5th Rd pick from Ari in this years draft (pick 139) for  Pick 152, Pick 193, Pick 235.

 

34.       Dawand Jones OT Ohio State

59.       John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota

91.       Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State

152.     Parker Washington WR Penn State

164.     Keion White EDGE Georgia Tech

193.     Karl Brooks DT Bowling Green

235.     Nathaniel Dell WR Houston

 

trades

KC Received:             Pick 27, 2024 BUF 2024 5th

BUF Received:           Pick 30, 2024 KC 2nd

 

ARI Received:             Pick 30, Pick 130

BUF Received:           Pick 34, 2024 ARI 2nd

 

WAS Received:          Pick 139

BUF Received:           Pick 152, Pick 193, Pick 235