Mock Draft simulations....

[Bill from NYC]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is kind of there implicitly in Cash's post - the lower the positional value the higher the certainty you have to have that the guy is a difference maker. Because Ed Reed is worth a 1st round pick and paying big bucks to. Less heralded but Devin McCourty has been to the Patriots too. But you have to be sure that you are getting a long term difference maker.

 

That is embedded in the approach I always use for grading draft prospects. I will only give a guard, center, off ball linebacker, tight end, running back or safety a 1st round grade if I think they can be a plus level starter out of the gate and become an elite difference maker. With the premium positions if I think you can be a have an impact early and be a 10 year "plus level" starter or (even if I think you might be more of a slow starter) I think you will reach an "elite level" by year 3 then I am willing to give you a 1st. A non-premium position I kind of need both. 

I totally agree GB. My thing is that in terms of the Bills, we have who I consider to be a HOF quarterback and a coach who focuses too much on defense and you know; maybe he is right but I just can't see it. 

I know that Ed Reed, Ronnie Lott, etc. were safeties that coud take over a game. Of course they did. LBs Dick Butkis and Willie Lanier could too, but the game has changed. We need to protet our greatest asset which is Josh Allen.

We can pretend to be a great team without Josh but it just ain't so. He consistently makes plays that very few QBs ever could make, or even could have ever made. I credit Josh even for our running backs being as effective as they are. He helps the defense by givng the team a lead and getting good field position. Are there other good players on the Bills? Of course there are!!!! But Josh is the man.

We can find good safeties and zone corners in later rounds. Me? I want our best resources to be used on blockers and more receivers to protect and help our greatest asset.

Jmo.

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I totally agree GB. My thing is that in terms of the Bills, we have who I consider to be a HOF quarterback and a coach who focuses too much on defense and you know; maybe he is right but I just can't see it. 

I know that Ed Reed, Ronnie Lott, etc. were safeties that coud take over a game. Of course they did. LBs Dick Butkis and Willie Lanier could too, but the game has changed. We need to protet our greatest asset which is Josh Allen.

We can pretend to be a great team without Josh but it just ain't so. He consistently makes plays that very few QBs ever could make, or even could have ever made. I credit Josh even for our running backs being as effective as they are. He helps the defense by givng the team a lead and getting good field position. Are there other good players on the Bills? Of course there are!!!! But Josh is the man.

We can find good safeties and zone corners in later rounds. Me? I want our best resources to be used on blockers and more receivers to protect and help our greatest asset.

Jmo.

 

I agree we need to spend more resources on offense but generally the Bills in this regime have spent their 1st round picks on premium positions - shut down corner, QB, a physical freak at linebackers, pass rushing IDL, trade for a #1 WR, pass rushing edge, corner. There have been two problems on offense: 

 

1. They have undervalued receiver IMO - I am not shocked because Carolina was a team known for getting by at receiver. I did a breakdown of their drafting and paying when Beane arrived and they did not have a history of prioritising the position. 

 

2. Their busts have been offense for the most part. Their three biggest draft whiffs are day 2 picks on Zay Jones, Cody Ford and Zack Moss. Add to that Spencer Brown who two years in looks an iffy third round pick.... if Ford and Brown had been hits the oline looks and feels a lot different. 

 

So to me receiver is a problem of investment.... oline is a problem of evaluation. 

 

The problem with relying entirely for later round DBs is you end up with Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace and Damar Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson on the field in critical moments and we have seen that can hurt you. You have to have a balance... and while the Bills have spent two first rounders on corners in 6 years.... other than that it has been one 4th, one 5th, and a bunch of 6th, 7th and UDFAs. 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree we need to spend more resources on offense but generally the Bills in this regime have spent their 1st round picks on premium positions - shut down corner, QB, a physical freak at linebackers, pass rushing IDL, trade for a #1 WR, pass rushing edge, corner. There have been two problems on offense: 

 

1. They have undervalued receiver IMO - I am not shocked because Carolina was a team known for getting by at receiver. I did a breakdown of their drafting and paying when Beane arrived and they did not have a history of prioritising the position. 

 

2. Their busts have been offense for the most part. Their three biggest draft whiffs are day 2 picks on Zay Jones, Cody Ford and Zack Moss. Add to that Spencer Brown who two years in looks an iffy third round pick.... if Ford and Brown had been hits the oline looks and feels a lot different. 

 

So to me receiver is a problem of investment.... oline is a problem of evaluation. 

 

The problem with relying entirely for later round DBs is you end up with Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace and Damar Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson on the field in critical moments and we have seen that can hurt you. You have to have a balance... and while the Bills have spent two first rounders on corners in 6 years.... other than that it has been one 4th, one 5th, and a bunch of 6th, 7th and UDFAs. 

 

What every team needs to do is pick the best players at premium positions early.

 

Once you start chasing needs it compounds your issues.

 

It started for Beane with Cody Ford.   He did a woeful job in free agency in 2018 and his long since forgotten OL signings were utter garbage.

 

So he ends up drafting an unathletic OL prospect..........hoping he would just be a "starting quality" tackle(and if not he'd SURELY be ok at guard).

 

That selection for need caused the Bills to miss on high ceiling WR1 prospects..........and THEN when Ford floundered at RT and had to be moved to G it effectively pushed future All Pro OT Wyatt Teller off the roster.

 

Cody Ford instead of BPA at a premium position........basically cost the Bills two star players........Wyatt Teller plus either DK Metcalf or AJ Brown.    

 

The moral of the story is that you can't afford to reach and settle for less just because it's a "need" position.  

 

Addressing needs is what free agency and trade markets are for.

 

If the Bills aren't loving their chances of getting help for Allen after the combine..........then they should be aggressive in UFA and/or the trade market to address those issues.  

 

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Solomon Grundy]

@BillfromNYC, @GunnerBill, @MAJBobby what are your thoughts on Alex Forsyth, center from Oregon? 

[MAJBobby]

On 1/12/2023 at 9:15 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

@BillfromNYC, @GunnerBill, @MAJBobby what are your thoughts on Alex Forsyth, center from Oregon? 

My initial look at him I see a 1 year started that is very athletic and smart. He has a high football IQ that should be able to handle the line calls. Pretty athletic can snap and pull and easily get to second level because of how athletic he is. 
 

concern is 1 year starter, his anchor isn’t the greatest. I see him pushed around a lot by the bigger and stronger interior. 
 

this is all just early work but I have him at value in the 4th round right now. 

[Solomon Grundy]

@MAJBobby, I'm liking Zay Flowers the more I watch him. He has that stop/start, YAC ability that can be a plus for the Bills offense. 

[OldTimer1960]

6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@MAJBobby, I'm liking Zay Flowers the more I watch him. He has that stop/start, YAC ability that can be a plus for the Bills offense. 

Watch Josh Downs (NC) as well.  Both would look good as the Bills’ slot receiver, but do you draft a slot-only receiver in even the late first?  Neither will be available by Bills’ 2nd pick.

[Solomon Grundy]

11 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Watch Josh Downs (NC) as well.  Both would look good as the Bills’ slot receiver, but do you draft a slot-only receiver in even the late first?  Neither will be available by Bills’ 2nd pick.

I'd try to move down a bit from 31

[OldTimer1960]

On 1/12/2023 at 10:11 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

2. Their busts have been offense for the most part. Their three biggest draft whiffs are day 2 picks on Zay Jones, Cody Ford and Zack Moss. Add to that Spencer Brown who two years in looks an iffy third round pick.... if Ford and Brown had been hits the oline looks and feels a lot different. 

 

So to me receiver is a problem of investment.... oline is a problem of evaluation. 

 

The problem with relying entirely for later round DBs is you end up with Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace and Damar Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson on the field in critical moments and we have seen that can hurt you. You have to have a balance... and while the Bills have spent two first rounders on corners in 6 years.... other than that it has been one 4th, one 5th, and a bunch of 6th, 7th and UDFAs. 

I agree that Zay Jones was a disappointing 2nd round pick, but he did have a pretty nice season this year.  I don’t want to write off Spencer Brown yet - he basically had little to no ability to train in the offseason due to his back injury and he missed time early in season due to another injury.  I hope that if he is healthy enough for a full offseason of training that we’ll see improvement from him.

 

I agree regarding investment in WR.  I hope that they can find someone that can challenge Gabe Davis and I would love to see a better slot receiver than the have had this year.  Unfortunately, based mostly from just early prospect reading there won’t be an outside WR prospect worth a late first.  Might find the same in 2nd, but might find a slot guy available there.

 

Regarding DBs - spot on.  Even with White back, a 1st on Elam I could understand grabbing another CB fairly early.

[JaCrispy]

4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@MAJBobby, I'm liking Zay Flowers the more I watch him. He has that stop/start, YAC ability that can be a plus for the Bills offense. 

What are your thoughts on Tennessee WR Jaylinn Hyatt?

 

Dude appears to have top end deep speed with great hands…He is currently projected as mid 2nd rounder…But after the combine, I could see him jump into the first round, right around where the Bills will pick…

 

I think the Bills desperately need a guy who can take the top off a defense…thoughts?

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

15 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

What are your thoughts on Tennessee WR Jaylinn Hyatt?

 

Dude appears to have top end deep speed with great hands…He is currently projected as mid 2nd rounder…But after the combine, I could see him jump into the first round, right around where the Bills will pick…

 

I think the Bills desperately need a guy who can take the top off a defense…thoughts?

 

 

He's definitely a speed burner!! The thing that worries me is his 1 year of production and is his strong enough to evade press coverage

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He's definitely a speed burner!! The thing that worries me is his 1 year of production and is his strong enough to evade press coverage

Also worry if he can develop his route running to get open against good NFL DBs.  Tenn. seemed to scheme him open more than he beat a DB in the videos that I’ve seen.

[MAJBobby]

On 1/14/2023 at 5:57 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

@MAJBobby, I'm liking Zay Flowers the more I watch him. He has that stop/start, YAC ability that can be a plus for the Bills offense. 

Have not spent a lot of time on WRS yet. Am definitely gonna start digging into them. He will be my first one I watch close so I can give you what I think. 

[RyanC883]

Robinson from Texas in Rd 1.  Instantly best backfield in NFL.  Having a top RB on rookie contract is key. 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

Robinson from Texas in Rd 1.  Instantly best backfield in NFL.  Having a top RB on rookie contract is key. 

Problem is he'll never make it to 31

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

Robinson from Texas in Rd 1.  Instantly best backfield in NFL.  Having a top RB on rookie contract is key. 

RB might be the most dependent position.  Without adequate blocking and other threats (passing weapons) and schemes to draw defenses’ attention and fool them, a RB can be neutralized.  This is pretty true of many positions, but I think a bit more true for RB.

 

Not opposed to drafting a great RB prospect, but I think improving the OL and providing more passing threats that spread defenders thin can also help the run game.

 

At present, I don’t think the OL is solid enough that an investment in a high-end RB is warranted without a plan to also address the OL.

 

Overall offensive weaponry allows every aspect of the offense to be better than the individual parts.

[GunnerBill]

On 1/15/2023 at 1:32 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

Also worry if he can develop his route running to get open against good NFL DBs.  Tenn. seemed to scheme him open more than he beat a DB in the videos that I’ve seen.

 

Yea. I can see him getting open in the NFL on pure go routes. Beyond that, I'm not so sure without developing his route running. I like his breaks and I love his speed. But there is not a lot of nuance. They are a bit just get it in his hands and he will be the best athlete on the field. That is not gonna be sufficient in the NFL. I think his speed probably means he goes higher than I'd be willing to take him. My provisional grade is a mid to late 2nd. 

[Milanos Milano]

Oline Oline Oline 

[Solomon Grundy]

If Bijan Robinson is there at 31, I'd absolutely take him. Him and Cook would add a dynamic feature to the backfield. If not, I'd move back a couple of spots to the 2nd rd and with the first pick I'm taking Siaki Ika. The second one would be for Zay Flowers. Let Ed Oliver walk and finally get your push the pocket DL they've been needing since they slipped on Ngata. 

[Milanos Milano]

We don’t need a safety in the 1st. There are a ton of very good safeties in this draft class that can be had in the 3-5th rounds.  Trey Dean (UF), Hicks (Cinci), Jay Ward (LSU). If we must bag a better quality one, there is Brandon Joseph (ND), Brown (PSU), Battle (Bama), Skinner (BSU) who can be had in day 2. This draft is loaded with great safety talent, no need to take 1 in the 1st round.