Mock Draft simulations....

[GunnerBill]

I'm going to start this thread here given that some people are a bit touchy about too many draft threads on the main board while the Bills season is live. I get that but this is the time of year my draft geekery kicks into overdrive regardless of the Bills record. Maybe one of the mods can move it to the main board later (hopefully after a Superbowl parade?)

 

I am record as saying that I think wide receiver and offensive line should be priority #1 and #2 for the team to address this offseason. I've begun having a play with the draft simulators and here is one I wanted to share from Pro Football Network's sim this morning. It is not necessarily the draft as I would "like" it to happen but this was me trying to be realistic (ignoring picks where the PFN computer just has players ranked way off where they will go) and thinking about how the Bills might play things if they panned out this way. 

 

Started with: #30, #62, #94, #130, #135, #162

 

TRADED with Seattle: #30 and #130 for #35 and #80 

#35 - Antonio Johnson, Safety, Texas A&M - can imagine the Bills loving this kid and he is the exact kind of "do it all" safety that they may lose in Jordan Poyer this offseason. He can cover in man, he can play deep in single high looks and he can play in the box. He was kind of sticking out BPA at this point and after a small trade back to allow themselves capital to still address their offensive needs I could imagine the Bills making this pick. 

 

TRADED with Pittsburgh: #62 and #94 for #46

#46 - John Michael Schmitz, Interior Offensive Line, Minnesota - versatile lineman who played left tackle in high school and then converted to center. Actually reminds me a lot of Mitch Morse (who was also a converted tackle) but is a little more powerful and, if Morse is back in 2023, I think Schmitz could start immediately at either guard spot. 

 

#80 - Xavier Hutchinson, Wide Receiver, Iowa State - the Bills need to address receiver early somehow, some way, in this class. Here they are dipping into basically the third tier of receiver prospects. However, I think Hutchinson has #1 receiver upside. He is a decent route runner, he has a good release. Testing numbers will be big for him and occasional drops are a concern but he is a high ceiling, value, pick here.

 

#135 - Jalen Graham, Linebacker, Purdue - another kid who just seems to fit everything the Bills look for. At 6'3 he has the length if they wanted to deploy him in the middle of the field (maybe Edmunds is gone, maybe he is playing on a franchise tag?) but his real asset is his coverage ability as a converted safety and we know the Bills value pass defense over run defense in their linebacker choices. 

 

#162 - Luke Schoonmaker, Tight End, Michigan - here is your archetypal #2 tight end. Schoonmaker is not going to be confused for a dynamic pass catcher, but he is sure handed and he is a reliable blocker both playing in line or split out. This allows the Bills to go two tight ends in their big package and then be more multiple out of those looks compared to using an extra lineman to block as they have been forced to the past two seasons. 

 

So there you go. 5 picks. I don't necessarily love it (I want them to tackle wide receiver earlier) but I think it is a kind of realistic Bills draft if the board falls in a certain way. And I think most of us will be looking to get a WR and an OL early so thought it was an interesting experiment where one of the top safeties falls to see what going that route does to the rest of the draft. 

 

 

[FireChans]

I think Antonio Johnson is as good as a Bill if he’s around the late first. Could even see a move up for him. Fits the Bills mold and like you said, where BPA

and need meet is where Beane is gonna pounce. Just like they did with Elam.

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think Antonio Johnson is as good as a Bill if he’s around the late first. Could even see a move up for him. Fits the Bills mold and like you said, where BPA

and need meet is where Beane is gonna pounce. Just like they did with Elam.

 

Latest CBS mock has him to the Bills at #30 too. I absolutely do not want a safety at #30.... but if he is there man he will be hard for this regime to pass up. He is everything they look for.

[Bill from NYC]

Your mock is very much on point.

 

If Vegas had a line on the Bills wasting a first round pick on a safety I would toss a few bucks on it.

[Solomon Grundy]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Latest CBS mock has him to the Bills at #30 too. I absolutely do not want a safety at #30

THIS^

[Solomon Grundy]

I think I want Deuce Vaughn in a Bills uniform in some capacity!! He's a football player!! 

[LyndonvilleBill]

In most cases, I agree with your thoughts and really appreciate the time you put into the information you provide. Personally, I love draft talk and discussing player options. Without the extra game, everyone would have started discussing the draft and various players a couple of weeks ago. I thinks it's great hearing names and reading up on draft prospects. There a LOT of them and it takes time.

 

So, some of my thoughts.

 

Even with the posibility of losing Poyer, I just don't see Saftey as a top pick. Well as long as Hyde is a go for next season. I think there may be better options to replace Poyer than our 1st pick. Possibly move Benford to safety and grab another late rnd corner?🤔

 

I played with PFN a little this morning. I may be a little biased as to some players I have been reading up on and the Feldmans Freak List.😉 But I found it interesting. 

 

30. Traded Raiders for 38, 138 & 215

 

38. Rashee Rice WR SMU. Just like this kid. Good hands, big enough for the outside, has some speed and pedigree. I'd take him at 30/31 if I had to. 😁

 

61. Traded up with Rams for 55. Gave 61 &138

 

55. Andre Carter Edge Army. Think he may slip a little with his military commitment? Von out, need some juice on the edge opposite Groot. Plus he could get some work in with Von. Who knows what will happen in 2024. Not sure if Lawson returns in 23'. FREAK!

 

93. Mazi Smith DT Michigan maybe slips a little with that weapons charge thing? We have Settle and Jones, don’t think Phillips returns. FREAK!

 

129. Andrew Voorhees OG USC Big 6'6" 325lbs and strong. 225@40 reps😱? Could slip a little being a 5th yr senior coming out. FREAK!

 

135. Joe Tippman OC Wisconsin.  Draft network comp is Mitch Morse. Strong and athletic. 1.65 10 yd split... FREAK!

 

165. Rakim Jarrett WR Maryland 6' 194lbs, 22.9 on the GPS (4.43 40..) 41.3" vertical. Another MD Gem in the making? FREAK!

 

215. DJ Turner CB Michigan. No idea how he was still on the board. More research to do here, but, 23.07 GPS (4.28 40) and a 6.29 3 cone? Sure is interesting.  Oh, and a FREAK!

 

I was hoping I could have picked up an extra 7th, but didn't work out. Maybe get real lucky and grab Zack Kuntz TE from Old Dominion as an UDFA as he was still on the board. 6'8" 251lbs, 4.57 40, 10'8" broad jump and 40" vertical. And yes. Of course, a FREAK!😁

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

On 1/2/2023 at 10:17 AM, LyndonvilleBill said:

In most cases, I agree with your thoughts and really appreciate the time you put into the information you provide. Personally, I love draft talk and discussing player options. Without the extra game, everyone would have started discussing the draft and various players a couple of weeks ago. I thinks it's great hearing names and reading up on draft prospects. There a LOT of them and it takes time.

 

So, some of my thoughts.

 

Even with the posibility of losing Poyer, I just don't see Saftey as a top pick. Well as long as Hyde is a go for next season. I think there may be better options to replace Poyer than our 1st pick. Possibly move Benford to safety and grab another late rnd corner?🤔

 

I played with PFN a little this morning. I may be a little biased as to some players I have been reading up on and the Feldmans Freak List.😉 But I found it interesting. 

 

30. Traded Raiders for 38, 138 & 215

 

38. Rashee Rice WR SMU. Just like this kid. Good hands, big enough for the outside, has some speed and pedigree. I'd take him at 30/31 if I had to. 😁

 

61. Traded up with Rams for 55. Gave 61 &138

 

55. Andre Carter Edge Army. Think he may slip a little with his military commitment? Von out, need some juice on the edge opposite Groot. Plus he could get some work in with Von. Who knows what will happen in 2024. Not sure if Lawson returns in 23'. FREAK!

 

93. Mazi Smith DT Michigan maybe slips a little with that weapons charge thing? We have Settle and Jones, don’t think Phillips returns. FREAK!

 

129. Andrew Voorhees OG USC Big 6'6" 325lbs and strong. 225@40 reps😱? Could slip a little being a 5th yr senior coming out. FREAK!

 

135. Joe Tippman OC Wisconsin.  Draft network comp is Mitch Morse. Strong and athletic. 1.65 10 yd split... FREAK!

 

165. Rakim Jarrett WR Maryland 6' 194lbs, 22.9 on the GPS (4.43 40..) 41.3" vertical. Another MD Gem in the making? FREAK!

 

215. DJ Turner CB Michigan. No idea how he was still on the board. More research to do here, but, 23.07 GPS (4.28 40) and a 6.29 3 cone? Sure is interesting.  Oh, and a FREAK!

 

I was hoping I could have picked up an extra 7th, but didn't work out. Maybe get real lucky and grab Zack Kuntz TE from Old Dominion as an UDFA as he was still on the board. 6'8" 251lbs, 4.57 40, 10'8" broad jump and 40" vertical. And yes. Of course, a FREAK!😁

 

Idk much about military commitments.  Will he be able to play in 23?

[LyndonvilleBill]

12 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Idk much about military commitments.  Will he be able to play in 23?

My understanding is he can defer his Military commitment. 

 

Here is a new article on the topic and was just addressed. 

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35291263/nfl-draft-path-cleared-andre-carter-ii-due-bill-provision

[OldTimer1960]

On 12/30/2022 at 6:42 AM, GunnerBill said:

I'm going to start this thread here given that some people are a bit touchy about too many draft threads on the main board while the Bills season is live. I get that but this is the time of year my draft geekery kicks into overdrive regardless of the Bills record. Maybe one of the mods can move it to the main board later (hopefully after a Superbowl parade?)

 

I am record as saying that I think wide receiver and offensive line should be priority #1 and #2 for the team to address this offseason. I've begun having a play with the draft simulators and here is one I wanted to share from Pro Football Network's sim this morning. It is not necessarily the draft as I would "like" it to happen but this was me trying to be realistic (ignoring picks where the PFN computer just has players ranked way off where they will go) and thinking about how the Bills might play things if they panned out this way. 

 

Started with: #30, #62, #94, #130, #135, #162

 

TRADED with Seattle: #30 and #130 for #35 and #80 

#35 - Antonio Johnson, Safety, Texas A&M - can imagine the Bills loving this kid and he is the exact kind of "do it all" safety that they may lose in Jordan Poyer this offseason. He can cover in man, he can play deep in single high looks and he can play in the box. He was kind of sticking out BPA at this point and after a small trade back to allow themselves capital to still address their offensive needs I could imagine the Bills making this pick. 

 

TRADED with Pittsburgh: #62 and #94 for #46

#46 - John Michael Schmitz, Interior Offensive Line, Minnesota - versatile lineman who played left tackle in high school and then converted to center. Actually reminds me a lot of Mitch Morse (who was also a converted tackle) but is a little more powerful and, if Morse is back in 2023, I think Schmitz could start immediately at either guard spot. 

 

#80 - Xavier Hutchinson, Wide Receiver, Iowa State - the Bills need to address receiver early somehow, some way, in this class. Here they are dipping into basically the third tier of receiver prospects. However, I think Hutchinson has #1 receiver upside. He is a decent route runner, he has a good release. Testing numbers will be big for him and occasional drops are a concern but he is a high ceiling, value, pick here.

 

#135 - Jalen Graham, Linebacker, Purdue - another kid who just seems to fit everything the Bills look for. At 6'3 he has the length if they wanted to deploy him in the middle of the field (maybe Edmunds is gone, maybe he is playing on a franchise tag?) but his real asset is his coverage ability as a converted safety and we know the Bills value pass defense over run defense in their linebacker choices. 

 

#162 - Luke Schoonmaker, Tight End, Michigan - here is your archetypal #2 tight end. Schoonmaker is not going to be confused for a dynamic pass catcher, but he is sure handed and he is a reliable blocker both playing in line or split out. This allows the Bills to go two tight ends in their big package and then be more multiple out of those looks compared to using an extra lineman to block as they have been forced to the past two seasons. 

 

So there you go. 5 picks. I don't necessarily love it (I want them to tackle wide receiver earlier) but I think it is a kind of realistic Bills draft if the board falls in a certain way. And I think most of us will be looking to get a WR and an OL early so thought it was an interesting experiment where one of the top safeties falls to see what going that route does to the rest of the draft. 

 

 

What do you see that you like about Hutchinson?  Admittedly, you shouldn’t just go by highlight videos, but he is rarely open even when making the catch on his highlights.  I understand that it is easier for guys playing the slot to get more open and he seemed to play more outside.

 

Watching him vs. Iowa, I saw him make a few catches, but I don’t see him getting open.  Does Iowa have a good secondary?  

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by OldTimer1960

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What do you see that you like about Hutchinson?  Admittedly, you shouldn’t just go by highlight videos, but he is rarely open even when making the catch on his highlights.  I understand that it is easier for guys playing the slot to get more open and he seemed to play more outside.

 

Watching him vs. Iowa, I saw him make a few catches, but I don’t see him getting open.  Does Iowa have a good secondary?  

 

 

Hadn't watched that gam before so that's for sharing.... and that isn't highlights that is a proper piece of tape that you can evaluate, so certainly a worthwhile one to watch. I think I see some of those routes slightly differently from you though. I think he does get open early in downs a fair amount - look at those intermediate out routes and the in cuts - that is because he has a good first step, a good release and gets to his markers. It is fair to say that on the throws in that game that are more of the downfield variety - the go routes, the back shoulder fades etc - you don't see a lot of separation between Hutchinson and the defender at the point of the catch / the breakup. That is pretty consistent with what I see elsewhere but I'm not really sure what I attribute that to. Part of it for me is definitely on Quarterback ball placement. There are throws on his film - in that game and others - where he seems to have separation on the defender and ends up having to come back towards to the defender to compete for the ball. I put that on the QB for the most part. That said, I did say above that I think testing is big for Hutchinson, I've seen him listed everywhere between 6'1 and 6'3 - the bigger the better, but even more critical is the 40 time. He is going to be right around 4.50 I think. If he can dip under it that will be good for his stock. If he is over that then I'm more inclined to think some of that lack of separation you see deep is a result of him being athletically limited. 

 

And I took him in the sim in round 3. That is about the value for him IMO. I see him as a similar, slightly higher ceiling prospect, to Gabe Davis coming out. A bigger guy who can run routes and can win outside. Maybe Gabe hasn't quite taken the step forward this year that some of us hoped but when you take someone like Hutchinson I think you are taking someone who could be a #2 and maybe even a #1B type receiver in time. You can probably find sexier and more explosive tape from a guy like Dell out of Houston who might also go somewhere in that round 3 type range... but you are going to end up having the Khalil Shakir argument again about the extent that he can really help you outside in the NFL rather than being that slot / waterbug / gimmick receiver type. The Bills, for me, have to find a guy who can legitimately play outside. And when you start to look in that third tier if you don't take one early (either round 1 or round 2 - but in round 2 probably the 2nd tier are not lasting until the Bills pick) then Hutchinson is the one I feel most comfortable gambling on. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by GunnerBill

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hadn't watched that gam before so that's for sharing.... and that isn't highlights that is a proper piece of tape that you can evaluate, so certainly a worthwhile one to watch. I think I see some of those routes slightly differently from you though. I think he does get open early in downs a fair amount - look at those intermediate out routes and the in cuts - that is because he has a good first step, a good release and gets to his markers. It is fair to say that on the throws in that game that are more of the downfield variety - the go routes, the back shoulder fades etc - you don't see a lot of separation between Hutchinson and the defender at the point of the catch / the breakup. That is pretty consistent with what I see elsewhere but I'm not really sure what I attribute that to. Part of it for me is definitely on Quarterback ball placement. There are throws on his film - in that game and others - where he seems to have separation on the defender and ends up having to come back towards to the defender to compete for the ball. I put that on the QB for the most part. That said, I did say above that I think testing is big for Hutchinson, I've seen him listed everywhere between 6'1 and 6'3 - the bigger the better, but even more critical is the 40 time. He is going to be right around 4.50 I think. If he can dip under it that will be good for his stock. If he is over that then I'm more inclined to think some of that lack of separation you see deep is a result of him being athletically limited. 

 

And I took him in the sim in round 3. That is about the value for him IMO. I see him as a similar, slightly higher ceiling prospect, to Gabe Davis coming out. A bigger guy who can run routes and can win outside. Maybe Gabe hasn't quite taken the step forward this year that some of us hoped but when you take someone like Hutchinson I think you are taking someone who could be a #2 and maybe even a #1B type receiver in time. You can probably find sexier and more explosive tape from a guy like Dell out of Houston who might also go somewhere in that round 3 type range... but you are going to end up having the Khalil Shakir argument again about the extent that he can really help you outside in the NFL rather than being that slot / waterbug / gimmick receiver type. The Bills, for me, have to find a guy who can legitimately play outside. And when you start to look in that third tier if you don't take one early (either round 1 or round 2 - but in round 2 probably the 2nd tier are not lasting until the Bills pick) then Hutchinson is the one I feel most comfortable gambling on. 

Thanks Gunner!  I really enjoy and respect your analyses of draft prospects.  It is early yet and workouts and interviews can impact where a prospect goes by a fair bit yet, but this draft doesn’t look strong at boundary receiver and I would be surprised if the Bills got a shot at Quentin Johnson or Addison from USC.  Unless they like someone like Odunze or Rashee Rice enough to take them in the first, it looks like they’ll have to go to another position in round 1.  I’m not sure that either is worth that high a pick, but likely both gone before Bills’ 2nd pick.  I’m not yet convinced that Jalin Hyatt is that good, regardless of how fast he runs.  
 

I know you aren’t a fan of drafting a slot receiver even late first, but do you think that Josh Downs might compare reasonably close to Jahan Dotson?  I kind of think that a really dynamic slot receiver would be a great help and would draw defense attention to the middle of the field and allow Gabe Davis to have more room to get open.

 

Given lack of WRs lining up with late first round picks in this draft, I would think they would look to the OL as next priority, but there too, their need is more interior OL unless they are going to give up on Spencer Brown.  Is there a C or OG worth a late first?  I’ve seen O’cyrus Torrence rated up there, but the amount of bad weight he carries scares me (worry about work ethic).

[DrDawkinstein]

At this point, we (us chagrined TBD fans) are pretty much stuck with a Safety in the 1st.

 

We really need to go OL, OL, WR. But with the way this season played out, we all know Safety is at the top of McBeane's list.

 

Bummer.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

At this point, we (us chagrined TBD fans) are pretty much stuck with a Safety in the 1st.

 

We really need to go OL, OL, WR. But with the way this season played out, we all know Safety is at the top of McBeane's list.

 

Bummer.

I don’t think S is a foregone conclusion in the first.  If they lose Poyer, it will hurt first-rounder or not.  Could argue that ILB will have same size hole if they can’t retain Edmunds.  Likewise, OL sure could use some help and I think WR really needs at least big competition for Gabe Davis and McKenzie.

[DrDawkinstein]

22 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think S is a foregone conclusion in the first.  If they lose Poyer, it will hurt first-rounder or not.  Could argue that ILB will have same size hole if they can’t retain Edmunds.  Likewise, OL sure could use some help and I think WR really needs at least big competition for Gabe Davis and McKenzie.

 

Sure, anything can happen. But with Hyde's return questionable, Johnson proving he ISNT the guy, and now Hamlin's return questionable, that leaves 2 starting spots are arguably the most important positions in McD's scheme.

 

Maybe we can sign a Safety or two in FA. I'm not sure who from the list of FAs. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/safety/all/

If McBeane can resurrect the backup careers of Hyde and Poyer like they did, maybe we can hit on that again.

 

But I'm fully expecting McBeane to once again dedicate top resources to our Defense and try to "get by" on Offense with a handful of 2nd/3rd tier OL.

[DrDawkinstein]

 

 

@Bill from NYC, I was thinking of you yesterday, the moment I realized we'll likely be drafting a Safety in the 1st. I feel ya buddy. Really need that OL help.

[Bill from NYC]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

@Bill from NYC, I was thinking of you yesterday, the moment I realized we'll likely be drafting a Safety in the 1st. I feel ya buddy. Really need that OL help.

I predicted this before the horrible injury.

 

I think that McDermott is calling the shots more than Beane, and he won't be able to resist a 1st round safety. Josh Allen is just SO great that McDermott probably thinks that he can win it all without help at WR and OL and you know; maybe he can. 

That said, because of the HOF talent that Josh clearly possesses, protecting him and giving him more weapons would seem to be the top priority to most people. 

 

We can only hope.

 

[Cash]

20 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I predicted this before the horrible injury.

 

I think that McDermott is calling the shots more than Beane, and he won't be able to resist a 1st round safety. Josh Allen is just SO great that McDermott probably thinks that he can win it all without help at WR and OL and you know; maybe he can. 

That said, because of the HOF talent that Josh clearly possesses, protecting him and giving him more weapons would seem to be the top priority to most people. 

 

We can only hope.

 

My take is largely aligned with what Beane publicly claims his strategy is.  (And for the record, I think Beane has generally been honest about this stuff so far.)  My take roughly boils down to, "get difference makers where and when you can."  Those can come from anywhere, but some routes are more likely than others.  Free agency?  Relatively not-hard to pay through the nose for one (e.g., Von Miller), but much harder to sign one for mid-tier money or lower.  Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were two strikes of gold, but usually you get more the Roger Saffold or Quinton Jefferson types.  As for the draft, difference makers have come from every round and UDFA, but they're much more common at the top of the draft.

 

So what?  So if I had access to the full wealth of scouting info that the Bills do - including formal interviews with players and informal info-sharing with players' coaches - I would approach the first pick something like this:

1. Do I think any of these guys (projected to go around here) can reasonably make a difference for me both this year and over the course of a long career?  If yes, how many?  That becomes my pool of finalists.
2. If not, then do I think any of these guys can either make a difference this year (but maybe has a lower ceiling), or make a difference down the road (but maybe has a higher chance of busting)?
3. If still no, then I'm looking at high-floor guys that I think can contribute in some way (special teamers, niche roles, etc.), or lotto tickets.  By lotto tickets, I mean guys with red flags but maybe a 1-5% chance of being great... "if he stays healthy" or "if he puts it all together" or things like that.

Obviously that's a way simplified version, but that's roughly the gist.  My point is, I'm not super hung up on position in the first round.  HOWEVER, the lower the positional value, the higher the team's confidence should be in order to justify the pick.  In the case of safety, Hyde and Poyer have been absolutely crucial to the success of our defense under McDermott, and I don't think either will be easy to replace.  And frankly, this management team has earned my trust that they generally know what they're doing, and that they're capable of learning from their mistakes.  So if they go S in the first round, they get the benefit of the doubt from me.

 

Having said that, I know I'll be annoyed if they don't look to address both WR and OL with significant resources of some sort next offseason.  And interior OL specifically needs some young blood IMO.

[Bill from NYC]

19 hours ago, Cash said:

 

1. Do I think any of these guys (projected to go around here) can reasonably make a difference for me both this year and over the course of a long career?  If yes, how many?  That becomes my pool of finalists.
2. If not, then do I think any of these guys can either make a difference this year (but maybe has a lower ceiling), or make a difference down the road (but maybe has a higher chance of busting)?
3. If still no, then I'm looking at high-floor guys that I think can contribute in some way (special teamers, niche roles, etc.), or lotto tickets.  By lotto tickets, I mean guys with red flags but maybe a 1-5% chance of being great... "if he stays healthy" or "if he puts it all together" or things like that.

I think that you left out perhaps the most important question......If the 1st round pick does play well, would it be worth it to the team to re-sign him to a huge second contract? 

Safeties, RBs, and LBs are (in the current NFL) are very rarely worth a huge cap hit. On other teams, guards might even fit this category but with Josh Allen on the team, protection is essential if we want to keep him in one piece.

If it were up to me, our (very late) first round pick would be my highest rated blocker or wide receiver (preferably a blocker). Josh Allen is not a running back and if he continues to carry the ball over and over again he IS going to get hurt. Sadly, it's only a matter of when and how bad.

 

That said, thanks for an interesting, well though post.

[GunnerBill]

On 1/11/2023 at 12:13 PM, Bill from NYC said:

I think that you left out perhaps the most important question......If the 1st round pick does play well, would it be worth it to the team to re-sign him to a huge second contract? 

Safeties, RBs, and LBs are (in the current NFL) are very rarely worth a huge cap hit. On other teams, guards might even fit this category but with Josh Allen on the team, protection is essential if we want to keep him in one piece.

If it were up to me, our (very late) first round pick would be my highest rated blocker or wide receiver (preferably a blocker). Josh Allen is not a running back and if he continues to carry the ball over and over again he IS going to get hurt. Sadly, it's only a matter of when and how bad.

 

That said, thanks for an interesting, well though post.

 

I think that is kind of there implicitly in Cash's post - the lower the positional value the higher the certainty you have to have that the guy is a difference maker. Because Ed Reed is worth a 1st round pick and paying big bucks to. Less heralded but Devin McCourty has been to the Patriots too. But you have to be sure that you are getting a long term difference maker.

 

That is embedded in the approach I always use for grading draft prospects. I will only give a guard, center, off ball linebacker, tight end, running back or safety a 1st round grade if I think they can be a plus level starter out of the gate and become an elite difference maker. With the premium positions if I think you can be a have an impact early and be a 10 year "plus level" starter or (even if I think you might be more of a slow starter) I think you will reach an "elite level" by year 3 then I am willing to give you a 1st. A non-premium position I kind of need both.