Continuing yards after catch (YAC) mystery

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, DaggersEOD said:

Eyeball/gut answer is that JAs arm allows him to get balls through very tight windows leaving the ball carrier with little to no space to work with once they make the catch. 
 

It’s almost like all the YAC is sucked up in the “air yards” the ball travels. 
 

Im not a stats ninja but perhaps there’s a statistical relationship between air yards and YAC. Meaning more air yards tend to result in less YAC while less air yards tend to result in more YAC. 

 

It would be interesting to see where our pass catchers rank in “air yards/catch”. 
 

I guess what I’m saying is shorter routes equal more YAC and that’s not our game. 

This^^^
 

Josh, imo, appears to not like throwing the check down/screen pass, he does it but…, if we are having long passes that make up the difference, who the F cares about YAC? really, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Why all the focus on screens? I’m betting that the Dolphins lead the league in YAC, and the vast majority of those yards aren’t coming from screen passes. The Bills route tree doesn’t feature either crossing routes or rub routes. Both of those are where you really pile up YAC. 

 

We featured crossing routes quite a bit when Daboll was here and still were near the bottom of the league in YAC per attempt. Teams with high YAC either call a lot of screens or have YAC specialists or both. We have neither.

 

People blaming Allen's ball placement have no clue. Better ball placement might lead to an extra few yards here and there in this offense, not nearly enough to make a difference. The difference in teams at the top and bottom of this statistic is NOT ball placement, that's inherently ridiculous.

[SoCal Deek]

Or instead of redesigning the entire offense, Josh could just take the open dump down to Singletary on a more regular basis…it’s open on virtually every play.

[HappyDays]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Here is the thing... the 2020 Bills used crossing routes more than almost anyone. Not sure what has happened to them since but intermediate crossers were like our go to play that season. 

 

I don't have statistics to back this up but I believe back then defenses still thought man coverage was the best way to beat Allen. Our receivers just had to beat their man and Allen could throw the ball out in front of them. This year it's almost all zone, and teams know we want to run crossing routes so they're taking them away.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't have statistics to back this up but I believe back then defenses still thought man coverage was the best way to beat Allen. Our receivers just had to best their man and Allen could throw the ball out in front of them. This year it's almost all zone, and teams know we want to run crossing routes so they're taking them away.

 

Yea I think that is the most logical explanation. Just haven't had chance to properly get into the tape to see if it stacks up.

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Part of the problem is that the Bills haven’t really have much of a screen game.  I’m not exactly sure why as it should favor their offensive line but the few screens they have called usually result in little yardage.  I can’t remember the exact number but I believe Mahomes led the league in shorter passes yet also led the league in passing yards.  

 

I also think part is Josh as a passer.  He’s more of an off-schedule thrower at QB rather than a timing passer. Also I think ball placement has been an issue at times.
 

Then you have WR’s like Diggs who is a great route runner but not a burner, Davis who can get open deep but doesn’t have a great route tree, and the rest of the WR’s

 

Agree with this.

 

Much of the lack of RAC is on Allen as a passer and how defenses play him.

 

Allen is not a QB that looks for the layup first then the 3 point shot. His focus almost always is routes beyond the sticks before he would consider anything shorter. 

 

There are some short timing routes that dictate that he throws a quick pass on schedule.

 

Defenses play him assuming the intermediate to deep passes - usually rushing 4 and quickly dropping most everyone into shell coverage keeping any completions in front of them for limited RAC.

 

Some leave that LB or S with speed to mirror/spy Allen to ensure he does not take off.

 

We do not have the kind of receivers that will make defenders miss and can generate RAC providing Allen hits them in stride and they have that opportunity.

 

Our best RAC receivers will be our RBs. Cook, Hines, and Motor. They can all make folks miss and generate RAC stats, but Allen has not quite embraced those easy underneath outlet throws. Also I don't believe the Bills have introduced many designed receiving plays for them yet.

 

The more Allen forces himself to take those layups and works on his short-throw touch and accuracy, the better it will play out for our receivers downfield as teams will have to commit more to stop throws beneath the sticks.

 

Right now, I think most of our opponents feel that gamble of leaving that part of the field virtually undefended is worth the risk.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by WideNine

[Buffalo Boy]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

also think part is Josh as a passer.  He’s more of an off-schedule thrower at QB rather than a timing passer. Also I think ball placement has been an issue at times.

This

I love Josh but “ Three steps and balls out” is something we never see from him.

And if we do, he does not often place the ball in a way that the receiver can effortlessly continue forward.

Also, not availing himself of the check downs contributes to this. Cook and Motor underneath can be some serious money but he’s always 15-20 yards further downfield with his eyes.

[In Summary]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

3) Josh Allen extends plays and waits for routes to develop. YAC usually comes from quick hitters.

Kelly to Reed. Quick slant. Many times. 

[Don Otreply]

Imo, if Josh masters the check down/ screen/short pass, or however you want to say it, on top of his current repertoire, he will be unstoppable, this is his only really less than bright spot, he needs to take what he is given just a bit more often, and that will open up the mid to longer range stuff that he is partial too. Imo yac is nice but hardly crucial in our offensive style. I think we are in a sense wasting time and energy on something that is not gonna gain us a tremendous difference in the win loss column, i mean we are 12-3 after all and the current #1 seed in the AFC. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[WideNine]

3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, if Josh masters the check down/ screen/short pass, or however you want to say it, on top of his current repertoire, he will be unstoppable, this is his only really less than bright spot, he needs to take what he is given just a bit more often, and that will open up the mid to longer range stuff that he is partial too. Imo yac is nice but hardly crucial in our offensive style. I think we are in a sense wasting time and energy on something that is not gonna gain us a tremendous difference in the win loss column, i mean we are 12-3 after all and the current #1 seed in the AFC. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I agree we have won, but I think if Allen can embrace those quicker throws and opportunities beneath the sticks and we run the ball well, it will present more single-coverage opportunities for Diggs and Davis, and coverage mismatches with Knox.

 

Keeping Diggs happy is important for this team too, so they need to find ways to keep him an active part of their game plans.

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

I agree we have won, but I think if Allen can embrace those quicker throws and opportunities beneath the sticks and we run the ball well, it will present more single-coverage opportunities for Diggs and Davis, and coverage mismatches with Knox.

 

Keeping Diggs happy is important for this team too, so they need to find ways to keep him an active part of their game plans.

 

 

 

Yes, I agree, that’s what I was emphasizing in my post. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[SoCal Deek]

27 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I agree we have won, but I think if Allen can embrace those quicker throws and opportunities beneath the sticks and we run the ball well, it will present more single-coverage opportunities for Diggs and Davis, and coverage mismatches with Knox.

 

Keeping Diggs happy is important for this team too, so they need to find ways to keep him an active part of their game plans.

 

 

 

It was Josh doing just that in last year’s playoffs that resulted in Gabe having his banner day against KC. Teams simply can’t cover everything that the Bills can throw at them. 

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This Cincy game is one of the most important of the regular season.

 

 

Thanks for the insight. 😂

[Mango]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

The simplest answer is the correct one - we have no pass catchers that are YAC specialists. If you have Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, etc., you design plays to get your YAC specialist the ball in space and let them run. We don't bother with those types of plays because we don't have the right personnel. Our explosive plays are Allen throwing the ball 15+ yards past the LOS or taking off himself.

 

As for screens, defenses always have their eyes in the backfield and on Allen in particular when they play us and they're spreading the defense out. That makes it a lot more difficult to fool the defense long enough for the screen to be successful. If we ever get lucky and call a screen into a man blitz it would be a huge play but that's not how defenses are playing us.

 

Maybe Cook can be the YAC guy for us. We haven't made it a point to get him involved as a pass catcher yet. If we unleash that part of our offense in the playoffs it will be a huge advantage as something defenses aren't prepared for.

 

Didn't we draft and trade for two pass catch RB's? 

 

YAC is 1 part WR, 1 part QB, 1 part coaching. There is some blame for all 3.

 

Allen sucks at selling the screen, he stares it down. (The long wind up on the hand off is weird too. Bad enough for me at home to know whether if it is play action or legit run). He also seems to almost refuse to look at the underneath throw in space in favor of the low percentage down field throw that splits defenders. He does it because he can with more regularity than most, but it comes at a certain cost if you miss. That means more passes to "bigger"  and more covered outside WR's rather than shiftier players in space. 

 

I don't think Diggs is a real threat with the ball in his hands. Diggs threat is breaking your ankles and beating you on a route. Not making you miss with the ball in his hands.

It seems like a real struggle to get the screen and underneath game going. We have devoted resources to guys with speed and quickness but rarely commit to getting them involved. I don't buy the "trust" issue. Figure it out and make the plays when needed. Not throwing to the open guy or giving a guy a chance because, trust or whatever is dumb. Get Cook and Hines involved to do what you brought them into do. Letting Hodgins hit waivers was stupid on a WR deficient team. Both are on the staff.

[Buffalo716]

I feel this has been hashed over many times

 

Josh Allen and this offense is not a rhythm based attack… YAC Is typically designed on rhythm throws and drawn up designs … screens.. pick plays

 

Josh is a thrower of the football … he wants AIR YARDS… he wants to push the ball downfield and make you respect his arm… he throws to the boundary … 

 

most YAC plays are designed within 10 yards of the LoS… our offense thrives 15-20 yards downfield where the windows are tighter and the separation is less

 

You get Less YAC when you are throwing dimes 30 yards to the corner of the sideline

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

This whole YAC thing is dumb. Who cares about YAC when you have a QB who can throw a ball 15-20 yards or more every play? If you're noodle arm Mac Jones then YAC starts to matter. Not if your Josh Allen.

 

Disagree.  When Tua or Mahomes throws a ball for 5 yards and that receiver runs 20 yards more, it makes your offense a whole new super power.

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Because we don’t have Austin Ekeler.  
 

Or Hill.  
 

Or Waddle. 
 

 

Singletary is 60th.  There’s the answer.  And McKenzie hasn’t had enough catches.  
 

Our QB runs more then almost all the others.  
 

Last year was worse because we got almost nothing after the catch from Cole.  And RB 2 was Moss.  

YAC isn’t just about the QB hitting guys in stride to be able to keep them running. 
 

It’s also about elite agility guys making people miss or running by everyone.  

 

Since using Cook more - say around week 10 - I wonder where we rank.  
 

 

This stat is an easy eye test.  Does this team have speed?   
 

Overall on offense not really.  Cook and McKenzie.  That’s it.  Davis and Diggs game isn’t really a speed/make you miss game

 

Hines is actually our fastest guy on offense now but we havent used him much and when we have its usually an overthrow.

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Definitely a play design thing.  Watch other NFL games and you’ll see a lot of quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.  I guess when you have a QB that can so easily gain those same types of yards with his legs, Bills don’t see the need to draw up those types of plays.  Davis and McKenzie could definitely execute those plays though.  I think at the beginning of his career, Daboll let Josh be Josh.  Now I think Josh is a mature enough QB to dink and dunk you down the field if that’s what defense is giving us.  

 

We do run those plays.  They are usually stuffed at the line though.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Here is the thing... the 2020 Bills used crossing routes more than almost anyone. Not sure what has happened to them since but intermediate crossers were like our go to play that season. 

 

Yeah, I have felt like that too. I hear people say that the offense is largely the same.  Beasley said something like that when he got signed.  Yet, the offense does not look the same to me.  I dont study film or anything but it just not seem the same to me.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Disagree.  When Tua or Mahomes throws a ball for 5 yards and that receiver runs 20 yards more, it makes your offense a whole new super power.

 

 

Right. They have to do that. We don't. Allen can throw a ball 20+ yards. Same result.

[JohnNord]

48 minutes ago, special-teams said:

Great observations!  When was our last screen play??

They’ve tried a few that have been so poorly executed Allen aborted and threw the ball in the dirt.  
 

They also tried a WR screen to Diggs against Miami.  Shakir struggled to block his man and a Miami defender came downhill to make a play.  The result was 2 defenders coming for Diggs and a loss of 2 yards