Prime Time Josh vs Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh

[freddyjj]

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 7 National games has an average Rating of 106,  has thrown 20 TDs and 5 INTs.  Bills are 7-0!

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 8 regional games average Rating of 85, has thrown 12 Tds and 8 INTs. Bills are 5-3.

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

 

edited with Bold for emphasis and to show records in said games.  Also edited to reflect GB as prime time game, Thx @BigDingus

Edited December 28, 2022 by freddyjj

[Saint Doug]

Josh always does much better in Prime Time games. Like clockwork. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 6 National games has an average Rating of 103, has thrown 18 TDs and 3 INTs.

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 9 regional games average rating of 84, has thrown 14 Tds and 10 INTs. 

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

It doesn’t make sense that it’s a ‘sugar rush’ for 1pm games that doesn’t occur in prime time games with everyone watching lol I think it’s a lot more to do with the other two things you mentioned. 

[Charles Romes]

He’s also the all time number one NFL playoff passing leader, further testament to the fact he gets even better when the stakes are higher. 

 

 

Leaders

  

RankPlayerRateYearsTm

1Josh Allen106.62018-2022buf

2Patrick Mahomes105.72017-2022kan

3Bart Starr+104.81956-1971gnb

4Kurt Warner+102.81998-20092TM

5Matt Ryan100.82008-2022atl

6Aaron Rodgers100.12005-2022gnb

7Matthew Stafford99.02009-20222TM

8Nick Foles 98.82012-2022phi

9Alex Smith97.42005-20202TM

10Drew Brees97.12001-20202TM

11Joe Montana+95.61979-19942TM

12Russell Wilson95.32012-2022sea

13Mark Sanchez94.32009-2018nyj

14Ken Anderson93.51971-1986cin

15Tony Romo93.02004-2016dal

16Joe Theismann91.41974-1985was

17Tom Brady90.42000-20222TM

18Joe Flacco88.62008-2022rav

19Troy Aikman+88.31989-2000dal

20Cam Newton87.72011-2021car

[RiotAct]

makes sense; most of the candy stores are still open on Sunday mornings!

[RobbRiddick]

He's like me with sex, he can only do it to the best of his abilities when there's lots of people watching

[Logic]

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

[RobbRiddick]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

I think there might be some truth to this.

 

The better players in any sport take it up a level when it matters most. 

[Big Turk]

30 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Albeit this year's Bills broadcast Schedule has been bizarre given the amount of Prime Time slots (Rams, Titans, Lions, NE, MIA, (KC) Late SUN CBS Nat'l feed) and then our usual SUN 1pm kickoffs.  I had a feeling there was a discrepancy between Josh on National TV vs the SUN 1pm kickoffs, and boy, it seems there is.  

 

Primetime Josh in 6 National games has an average Rating of 103, has thrown 18 TDs and 3 INTs.  Bills are 6-0!

Sunday 1pm Sugar Rush Josh in 9 regional games average Rating of 84, has thrown 14 Tds and 10 INTs. Bills are 6-3.

 

Admittedly a small sample size, many prime time games were early in year before elbow injury and weather was an issue in 3-4 early time slot games.  I have seen many posters here surmise Josh gets really focused for the bright lights.   Food for thought here.

 

edited with Bold for emphasis and to show records in said games.

 

Pretty much the same as ever...PrimeTime rating in his career is 107.9 and has the highest postseason rating for a QB in NFL History.  Basically when the stage is the biggest and the lights are the brightest and the games are the most important, Allen delivers like no other.  Such a great ability to have and why I think he will win at least one SB for us...it's hard to find players like that, so many QB's shrink from the moment like Kyler Murray.

[Nephilim17]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

As a version of your theory, perhaps Josh forces throws against lower-ranked competition thinking — wrongly, a lot — that they're not good enough to defend those passes.

Perhaps he makes smarter decisions against elite competition. Rather than simply making better throws. But that requires a ton of work to determine and I'm not the man for the job.

[WhoTom]

21 minutes ago, Logic said:

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

Nothing to roast here. I've often thought that they (not just Josh, but the entire team) play to the level of their opponent, which is why they lose some games that they should win. The cat may think it can kill the mouse at any time, but sometimes the mouse gets away.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by WhoTom

[strive_for_five_guy]

It is the darkest nights that produce the brightest stars.

[AuntieEm]

41 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

It doesn’t make sense that it’s a ‘sugar rush’ for 1pm games that doesn’t occur in prime time games with everyone watching lol I think it’s a lot more to do with the other two things you mentioned. 

 

  Yea I'd think it would likely be many of the 1pm games were home games and Josh tries too do more in front of the home crowd.  I'd isolate home 1pm games see how he does there vs other 1pm games.  Would possibly lend weight to above hypothesis.

Edited December 27, 2022 by AuntieEm

[Big Turk]

Allen on Monday Nights in his career: 6 games, 18 TDs, 2 INTs, 113.9 QB Rating.

31 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

I don't think it's dumb at all...it's almost like you are out playing with your little brother and you try some things that you wouldn't do normally against better people because you don't think it will matter ultimately and you just assume you can beat him when you need to.  Sometimes it is hard to get out of that mindset while the game is going on. Usually you see this happen after the Bills have a lead and he gets a little sloppy.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[AuntieEm]

24 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

I think there might be some truth to this.

 

The better players in any sport take it up a level when it matters most. 

  

  It is also human nature you work hardest on what's most important to you.   And when things are too easy is most often the time more wtf mistakes occur.  And often those simple stupid plays are hardest to shake off as a good play you just give the other player props for good play then proceed to outdo his big play with a bigger one.

 

 

[benderbender]

47 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

He's like me with sex, he can only do it to the best of his abilities when there's lots of people watching

[78thealltimegreat]

In year 5 if you haven’t figured out Josh Allen by now you never will. When he activates choose violence mode like before the Pats playoff game you can’t really stop him. 
Its usually his defense that lets him down in these kinda games. 
If the D contains Burrow enough to allow Josh a chance to win this game… he will. 
 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

That trend is FINE WITH MEEEEEEEEEE 🤩

[NickelCity]

52 minutes ago, Logic said:

I have a theory. It's probably nuts, but here goes...

By and large, prime time matchups tend to be against strong opponents, and 1pm games seem to be against weaker competition. There are exceptions, obviously, but this is generally true.

When Josh is going against prime competition, he brings his "A game" more often than not. When he's going against weaker competition, he sometimes plays down to the competition. He sometimes appears not to have the same level of intensity or effectiveness against weaker opponents. He's like a cat, toying with a piece of prey that he knows he could kill at any time. He makes more dumb mistakes and doesn't always have that "eye of the tiger" thing going on. This is what it felt like against the Browns and Bears this season, for instance. 

Meanwhile, when the primetime lights are on and the stakes are high, more often than not, he's locked in. He's Good Josh. He's "run over you and get up laughing" Josh. He's Inevitable Josh.

Ok, go ahead and roast me and my dumb theory.

 

It's not dumb or outlandish to point out that he plays up/down to the competition. 

[WotAGuy]

It’s such a blessing that he rises to the occasion when the lights are brightest.