Do the numbers say it all ?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

Their last  5 games scorecard:

 

Bengals 22,  Patriots 18 

Bengals 34,  Buccaneers 23

Bengals 23,  Browns 10

Bengals 27,  Chiefs 24

Bengals 20,  Titans 16

 

Three of the 5 games are by less than a TD.  In the same period, the Bills scores

Bills 35, Chicago 13

Bills 32, Miami 29

Bills 20  NYJ.  12

Bills 24.  NE 10

Bills 28,   Detroit 25

Bills 31,   Browns 23

 

Only one game is by less than a TD.  Granted that the games against the Jets and Detroit were lot closer...However, the Jets and Lions came into Orchard Park with their own hot streak. Also, divisions games are never easy.   Do the Bills have issues and do they need fix them - absolutely.  However, they are also 12-3 and top of the AFC.   Go Bills !

 

 

Not sure how you count, but two games were by three points, and two others 8 points which is a TD and 2 pt conversion away from a tie.  The two games that they won by more were still close till close to the end so Bills games have been just as close IMO.  Bengals beat Miami when they were playing at their best and Chiefs are 2 good wins by them, rest of their wins were against teams not playing that well.  Then again could make the same argument about the Bills and who they've beaten and who they lost to.

 

If the Bills offense was playing now like they were the first 5 or 6 weeks of season, I wouldn't be too worried, but right now Bengals offense seems to be clicking better than Bills at least from the eye ball test.

[galept]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

you think if he was, he could answer that question? lol

 

I don't know if perhaps you're thinking of the CIA, but as the poster also said in his reply, State employees by and large are not clandestine. For example, my friend who was undercover in the CIA told everyone he was working in Africa as an FSO in State as his cover.

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

This game is too important not to watch live. What I do:

 

Game starts at 2:30am in Berlin. I set the alarm for 3:30am, turn on the projector and watch the first half, skipping all the commercials.
 

This way, I catch up to the live broadcast by late in the third quarter and watch the fourth completely live, texting with family back in Buffalo.

It starts at 6:45 AM for me (India) and usually means I have to WFH on those days skipping my 8 AM and 9 AM calls !! Go Bills !   

[ganesh]

31 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Not sure how you count, but two games were by three points, and two others 8 points which is a TD and 2 pt conversion away from a tie.  The two games that they won by more were still close till close to the end so Bills games have been just as close IMO.  Bengals beat Miami when they were playing at their best and Chiefs are 2 good wins by them, rest of their wins were against teams not playing that well.  Then again could make the same argument about the Bills and who they've beaten and who they lost to.

 

If the Bills offense was playing now like they were the first 5 or 6 weeks of season, I wouldn't be too worried, but right now Bengals offense seems to be clicking better than Bills at least from the eye ball test.

should have written as 2 games by less than a TD (the other two games were by a TD or a TD + 2 Pts).   

 

The Bills have beaten Miami, KC, Browns, Titans , Jets just like the Bengals. 

The Bills also have beaten the Steelers and Ravens -  Both of whom the Bengals lost (and won against steelers in 2nd game). 

 

If you look at common opponents, it is fairly a wash.  Both teams are evenly matched and both are going through the Ups and Downs during the regular season.   

The Bengals started 0-2 whereas the Bills started 2-0......Then the Bills lost two straight in the middle of their season.   The Bengals only blowout win is against the Panthers. 

 

This will be a very close game and whoever has the ball for the final drive will win the game. 

[PrimeTime101]

23 minutes ago, galept said:

 

I don't know if perhaps you're thinking of the CIA, but as the poster also said in his reply, State employees by and large are not clandestine. For example, my friend who was undercover in the CIA told everyone he was working in Africa as an FSO in State as his cover.

the fact is, he is in berlin.

[T master]

17 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

I was curious to see what are the different in the numbers between Bills and Bengals. 
 

So i checked them and found this: 

OFFENSE

- yards: Bills 2nd - Bengals 7th (plus 523 net yards) 

- points: Bills 4th - Bengals 6th (plus 29)

- touchdowns: Bills 4th - Bengals 6th (plus 1)

- passing yards: Bills 6th - Bengals 4th (minus 146)

- passing touchdowns: Bills 3rd - Bengals 2nd (minus 2)

- rushing yards: Bills 8th - Bengals 25th (plus 669)

 

DEFENSE

- yards against: Bills 8th - Bengals 13th (minus 351)

- points against: Bills 2nd - Bengals 9th (minus 43)

Turnovers: Bills 11 - Bengals 5

Penalties: Bills 90 per 689 yards - Bengals 78 per 588 yards

 

Now the numbers don’t always say it all, but looking at them it’s clear that the two teams are very close. 
 

Limiting turnovers and penalties will be crucial, as always i know, but see that pound for pound we are the better team with the better QB, and with our rushing game far better, we don’t have to kill ourselves with stupid penalties or turn the ball over. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then with the injury to their starting RT i think it is there might be something the Bills can capitalize on . I usually feel bad if teams have a sudden injury to a starter but the Bills have been dealing with this all season when 1 gets healthy another is injured so i'm not feeling nearly as bad for anyone that is short a starter .

[skibum]

Pretty sure they still have to play the game to determine a winner. 

[CSBill]

2 hours ago, galept said:

 

Berlin? Are you with State Department? Corporate gig? Just curious.

 

 

He's undercover, with Jack Ryan and the CIA.

[Big Turk]

DVOA is probably a better way to look at it as it standardizes games against opponents to make good performances against bad teams less valuable and good performances against good teams more valuable.

 

Buffalo is significantly better in DVOA than Cincy is. We are #1 at 32.7%, Cincy is #7 at 16.2% sandwiched directly between Baltimore at 6 and Miami at 8.  This says they are a good to very good team but not an elite one. Not even the best in their own division.

 

We are better in all facets. Offense we are 3rd, they are 5th. Defense we are 4th, they are 14th, ST we are 7th they are 20th.  We should win this game, we are a better team.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[galept]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

the fact is, he is in berlin.

 

He answered my question immediately, so I have no idea what you're trying to say, or why we even need to have this discussion. This conversation is over.

 

[US Egg]

#34 and counting, yes, this number says it all.

[Johnnycage46]

6 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The Bengals are arguably hotter or playing better, more lately than the Bills.

 

We have been pulling out ugly wins for weeks now, which is great, but that stuff won't work against a team as good as the Bengals.  

 

So either we put it together and then have a great shot at winning, or we lose.

 

As always,  it all depends on which Josh shows up.  He's pretty darned inconsistent this year.

 

 

 

 

The Bengals Patd game was for sure an ugly win.  Basically needed the Pats to throw up on themselves to avoid being down with about a minute to go....after being up 22-0.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Not sure how you count, but two games were by three points, and two others 8 points which is a TD and 2 pt conversion away from a tie.  The two games that they won by more were still close till close to the end so Bills games have been just as close IMO.  Bengals beat Miami when they were playing at their best and Chiefs are 2 good wins by them, rest of their wins were against teams not playing that well.  Then again could make the same argument about the Bills and who they've beaten and who they lost to.

 

If the Bills offense was playing now like they were the first 5 or 6 weeks of season, I wouldn't be too worried, but right now Bengals offense seems to be clicking better than Bills at least from the eye ball test.

 

But yet the Bengals don't score points the way you would expect with the skill position players they have. They have highest scoring team in the NFL potential, but they fall well short of that most games. The Bills average more points and yards than the Bengals do.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

should have written as 2 games by less than a TD (the other two games were by a TD or a TD + 2 Pts).   

 

The Bills have beaten Miami, KC, Browns, Titans , Jets just like the Bengals. 

The Bills also have beaten the Steelers and Ravens -  Both of whom the Bengals lost (and won against steelers in 2nd game). 

 

If you look at common opponents, it is fairly a wash.  Both teams are evenly matched and both are going through the Ups and Downs during the regular season.   

The Bengals started 0-2 whereas the Bills started 2-0......Then the Bills lost two straight in the middle of their season.   The Bengals only blowout win is against the Panthers. 

 

This will be a very close game and whoever has the ball for the final drive will win the game. 

 

True but the way I see it the Bills lost to Miami at the point in the season when they were playing best and the very next week Bengals beat them.  Bills beat Miami at the point where they've lost 4 straight.  And that Titans win and to a lesser degree the Jet game doesn't look all that good these days. 

 

If the Bills can revert to their early season offense, I'd feel much better about Monday.  I just feel Bengals offense of late is looking more solid than Bills and have more weapons.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

But yet the Bengals don't score points the way you would expect with the skill position players they have. They have highest scoring team in the NFL potential, but they fall well short of that most games. The Bills average more points and yards than the Bengals do.

 

Is that true over the past 6 or 7 games?

Edited December 27, 2022 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[BarleyNY]

19 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

I was curious to see what are the different in the numbers between Bills and Bengals. 
 

So i checked them and found this: 

OFFENSE

- yards: Bills 2nd - Bengals 7th (plus 523 net yards) 

- points: Bills 4th - Bengals 6th (plus 29)

- touchdowns: Bills 4th - Bengals 6th (plus 1)

- passing yards: Bills 6th - Bengals 4th (minus 146)

- passing touchdowns: Bills 3rd - Bengals 2nd (minus 2)

- rushing yards: Bills 8th - Bengals 25th (plus 669)

 

DEFENSE

- yards against: Bills 8th - Bengals 13th (minus 351)

- points against: Bills 2nd - Bengals 9th (minus 43)

Turnovers: Bills 11 - Bengals 5

Penalties: Bills 90 per 689 yards - Bengals 78 per 588 yards

 

Now the numbers don’t always say it all, but looking at them it’s clear that the two teams are very close. 
 

Limiting turnovers and penalties will be crucial, as always i know, but see that pound for pound we are the better team with the better QB, and with our rushing game far better, we don’t have to kill ourselves with stupid penalties or turn the ball over. 

 

It never seems to be that sexy or fun to talk about, but your point about turnovers is the biggest factor in determining the winner on Monday. Two very good teams are facing each other and the team that wins the turnover battle likely wins the game. 

[Big Turk]

37 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

True but the way I see it the Bills lost to Miami at the point in the season when they were playing best and the very next week Bengals beat them.  Bills beat Miami at the point where they've lost 4 straight.  And that Titans win and to a lesser degree the Jet game doesn't look all that good these days. 

 

If the Bills can revert to their early season offense, I'd feel much better about Monday.  I just feel Bengals offense of late is looking more solid than Bills and have more weapons.

 

 

 

Is that true over the past 6 or 7 games?

 

They are almost exactly even.  Bengals average 0.6 yards more per game over the last 7 games.  396.9 to 396.3. Bills have been 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game during that time at 164.0, trailing only the Bears(169.9) and Ravens(166.4).

 

Very similar to last year where they led the league in rushing over the last month of the season at ove 200 yards per game 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Is that true over the past 6 or 7 games?

 

Bills also are still a better DVOA team over the past 7 games than the Bengals, ranking 2nd to SF when just filtering that timeframe out. Cincy is 5th, not sure how close behind as I would need paid access to see that, but appears it would be significantly behind since KC is 3rd and 6+% lower than us.  FWIW, the Bills DVOA in the past 7 games is higher than the season DVOA, so it has helped to increase it.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[Italian Bills]

10 hours ago, CSBill said:

It all adds up to a very simple formula for winning this game: (1) No turnovers, and (2) reduce the penalties (especially the holding penalties--on both sides of the ball).

So true bruh

9 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Nope! Work in the art world. And my better half is German. Got two little kids here. 
 

I think the State Department folks can reveal what they do, like the ambassador or cultural attaché. There are surely other people working here who can’t. 

PS @Italian Bills we had a great time in Bolzano! Beautiful town. 

Then take time to come here in Valtellina !

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

It never seems to be that sexy or fun to talk about, but your point about turnovers is the biggest factor in determining the winner on Monday. Two very good teams are facing each other and the team that wins the turnover battle likely wins the game. 

Actually, biggest factor in determining winner is score.

Second is turnover ratio.

 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

On 12/26/2022 at 4:45 PM, Italian Bills said:

I was curious to see what are the different in the numbers between Bills and Bengals. 
 

So i checked them and found this: 

OFFENSE

- yards: Bills 2nd - Bengals 7th (plus 523 net yards) 

- points: Bills 4th - Bengals 6th (plus 29)

- touchdowns: Bills 4th - Bengals 6th (plus 1)

- passing yards: Bills 6th - Bengals 4th (minus 146)

- passing touchdowns: Bills 3rd - Bengals 2nd (minus 2)

- rushing yards: Bills 8th - Bengals 25th (plus 669)

 

DEFENSE

- yards against: Bills 8th - Bengals 13th (minus 351)

- points against: Bills 2nd - Bengals 9th (minus 43)

Turnovers: Bills 11 - Bengals 5

Penalties: Bills 90 per 689 yards - Bengals 78 per 588 yards

 

Now the numbers don’t always say it all, but looking at them it’s clear that the two teams are very close. 
 

Limiting turnovers and penalties will be crucial, as always i know, but see that pound for pound we are the better team with the better QB, and with our rushing game far better, we don’t have to kill ourselves with stupid penalties or turn the ball over. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The turnovers aren't correct, those are only the lost fumbles: 

 

 Takeaways - Bills - 24

                       Cincy - 20

 

 Giveaways- Bills - 24

                     Cincy - 17

 

 So for turnover margin, the Bills are even and Cincy is +3