Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

The hard truth is that this is a must win if we are to truly have a shot at playing in the big one.

 

 

The implications of a loss will put us through a gauntlet while either KC or CIN gets a week off, and a home game against us if we manage to beat either KC or CIN on the road in the divisional round.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is simply not true
The bills have been excellent at playing away from home this year

I would like to see the bills win it if for no other reason to give Josh an extra week to rest that elbow, but we are totally still in this, if we lose the cinci game

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

The one thing we really need to clean up is our special teams. Two straight abysmal games in a row. I would like to see us just kick some touchbacks (and Not try to cover), and eliminate the penalties on the returns. 

Tell me about.  Even our normally reliable kicker had an off day.  These last 2-3 weeks have shown a big problem with our ST coverage on both punts & kickoffs. The penalties are constant. Even Hines is muffing some returns.  Gotta clean this up.

Edited December 27, 2022 by LABILLBACKER

[atlbillsfan1975]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

#1 seed gives the Bills the most time possible to try and get Hyde or Crowder back, although it is looking more and more like they are done.

 

Haven’t heard anything on either other than they are running off to the side of practice.

 

But it would get you to mid-January to get anyone back that you could. 

The fact those two players are working at all is very telling. Players who have shut it down for the season aren’t doing what Crowder and Hyde are doing. Both are Vets and realize how special this opportunity is to win it all. Hyde and Crowder could be big additions to this team. It’s about time we get a player back for a big game and it gives us a boost. Thinking about the Houston playoff game in 2019 when Watt came back. His presence mattered as much as his play. I think he had one sack during the Texans comeback in the second half. 

[Last Guy on the Bench]

13 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

A loss all but guarantees every single key guy will sit vs NE. 
 

Win out and finish strong!

No chance we sit guys with a loss. We would still have a shot at the one seed with a Bengals loss and a Chiefs loss either this week or next. Imagine sitting guys, losing to the Pats, and then that happens. McD would be run out of town. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Last Guy on the Bench

[Locomark]

We have not played the Bengals recently so this is a tough game to call and both teams have played games where they have a bad half here and a good half there and mixed in turnovers. This game could go many ways.
 

I truly believe we only go to the Super Bowl by winning this game to secure home field. The margin for error is too small in the AFC to possibly have to win 3 playoff games with 2 on the road just to get to the Super Bowl, IMO. 

[Ray Stonada]

I would love love love to get that number one seed. We need it and more so it represents the next upward step of the Bills’ journey since 2018. Each year we have been better than the last (to me we were better last year than 2020, even if our record was worse—we had the Chiefs in the playoffs whereas the year before they were a level above).

 

However, the Bills, Chiefs or Bengals can make it to the Super Bowl from any seeding position. 

[CSBill]

I said this in the Numbers thread, and worth repeating here:

 

It all adds up to a very simple formula for winning this game: (1) No turnovers, and (2) reduce the penalties (especially the holding penalties--on both sides of the ball).

[Chandler#81]

We’re better than Cinci -all through the roster. Yes, they made the Super Bowl last season and their record is good enough to warrant this opportunity as well. IF we don’t turn the ball over or kill promising drives with penalties, we’ll be the #1 seed. jmo.

[Teddy KGB]

4 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

We’re better than Cinci -all through the roster. Yes, they made the Super Bowl last season and their record is good enough to warrant this opportunity as well. IF we don’t turn the ball over or kill promising drives with penalties, we’ll be the #1 seed. jmo.

they have us at Wideout but that’s about it. 

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This is simply not true
The bills have been excellent at playing away from home this year

I would like to see the bills win it if for no other reason to give Josh an extra week to rest that elbow, but we are totally still in this, if we lose the cinci game

A Cinci loss sure make it much more difficult path to the Super Bowl. Of course, the Bills are still in it and none of us will give up hope. However, the Bills odds to represent the AFC will go down substantially. This game will absolutely be playoff type atmosphere. We should find out a lot about both teams. 

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

The fact those two players are working at all is very telling. Players who have shut it down for the season aren’t doing what Crowder and Hyde are doing. Both are Vets and realize how special this opportunity is to win it all. Hyde and Crowder could be big additions to this team. It’s about time we get a player back for a big game and it gives us a boost. Thinking about the Houston playoff game in 2019 when Watt came back. His presence mattered as much as his play. I think he had one sack during the Texans comeback in the second half. 

I'd much rather have Hyde back. That would be huge. Crowder doesn't get me all that excited. 

[newcam2012]

21 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

We’re better than Cinci -all through the roster. Yes, they made the Super Bowl last season and their record is good enough to warrant this opportunity as well. IF we don’t turn the ball over or kill promising drives with penalties, we’ll be the #1 seed. jmo.

First off, the game isn't played on paper. Secondly, the Bills aren't better than the Bengals all through the roster. The Bengals WR roster is by far better than the Bills. 

 

Also, you just can't dismiss or not acknowledge that the Bengals are playing at home. Sure the Bills are a very good road team. Nevertheless, the Bengals home field is a pretty good advantage. FWIT, t's generally worth 2 or 3 points from a bettors perspective.

 

Chandler, this game is going to be a dog fight to the bitter end. The Bills need a very very good Allen this game. No bonehead INTs, use his legs, and be the elite QB we know he is. I suspect a Burrows at home will play well. The guy is a proven winner and he will likely succeed if it comes down to the final drive. Allen can absolutely do the same but it's much more difficult on the road. 

[thenorthremembers]

55 minutes ago, CSBill said:

I said this in the Numbers thread, and worth repeating here:

 

It all adds up to a very simple formula for winning this game: (1) No turnovers, and (2) reduce the penalties (especially the holding penalties--on both sides of the ball).

Agree on the 1st point.  I think the second point depends on what ref crew the Bills pull this week.   Each group of refs call holding completely different and Cheffers and his crew are one of the worst.   For me if I see Cheffers, Hussey, Vinovich, Blakeman or Boger I know it could be a long day.

[NewEra]

16 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:

How big of a loss for Cinci is losing their RT?

He’s hasn’t been very good but it’s always nice to have a lesser player out there.  

15 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Apparently we never get the Mannings on our MNF games?  Would much prefer their perspective over Aikman/Buck.

No, they had to give their perspectives on TWO patriot games this year.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

they have us at Wideout but that’s about it. 

And safety.  Poyer may be the best of the matchup but both Bates and Bell are way better than Hamlin

11 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is it really that big?  Last year the Bengals were the #3 seed and went to the Super Bowl.  The Rams were the #2 seed and went to the Super Bowl.

 

 

They were both 4 seeds.

[strive_for_five_guy]

11 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is it really that big?  Last year the Bengals were the #3 seed and went to the Super Bowl.  The Rams were the #2 seed and went to the Super Bowl.

 

 

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it.  Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance.  This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage.  So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

[SCBills]

My (uneducated) guess at the positional breakdown given we rarely play the Bengals. 
 

OL - Bills (If Morse plays)

TE - Tie

WR - Bengals

RB - Tie

QB - Tie

DL - Bills

LB - Bills

CB - Tie

S - Bengals

ST - Tie

 

Next Gen Stats was scrolling a stat during MNF about how Burrow is killing teams with his WR’s getting 3 feet + of separation.  Game may come down to Bills DL vs Bengals OL and Tre White’s Progress / CB2 not being liabilities out there. 
 

Edited December 27, 2022 by SCBills

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, Locomark said:

We have not played the Bengals recently so this is a tough game to call and both teams have played games where they have a bad half here and a good half there and mixed in turnovers. This game could go many ways.
 

I truly believe we only go to the Super Bowl by winning this game to secure home field. The margin for error is too small in the AFC to possibly have to win 3 playoff games with 2 on the road just to get to the Super Bowl, IMO. 

I’m not so sure about the assumed road to the Super Bowl. Home field hasn’t been an automatic berth for the Chiefs, and with the #2 seed (should the Bengals lose to the Ravens) things may still go through Orchard Park.

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

A Cinci loss sure make it much more difficult path to the Super Bowl. Of course, the Bills are still in it and none of us will give up hope. However, the Bills odds to represent the AFC will go down substantially. This game will absolutely be playoff type atmosphere. We should find out a lot about both teams. 

I'd much rather have Hyde back. That would be huge. Crowder doesn't get me all that excited. 

Agree on Hyde. I think Crowder could be a great addition as well though. I think Crowder and Allen were just about to get some chemistry going when the injury occurred. Either way it’s nice to see guys working to get back to contribute, another injury to another player is always possible. 

[extrahammer]

Are we able to practice today or next few days? 

[Johnnycage46]

With the game on Monday, I think their first practice day is Thursday (instead of Wednesday for Sunday games).  So probably practice Thurs-Saturday, travel Sunday, game Monday.