Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Agreed. They will double Diggs and put the focus on him. Davis is due for a big game too. Let’s hope we get the Gabe from the KC playoff game. 

 

So I think I put this upthread already. 

 

The regular Greg Cosell preview of upcoming opponents is always interesting and especially so this week.  Greg Cosell, for those unfamiliar, started out reviewing actual film on reels and has gotten to the level of respect that off-season, teams will actually solicit his review of various draft prospects.  A person may agree or disagree, but he's not your average bloviating talking head.

 

Anyway he talks about how the Bengals D is not a high % man team, but they do like to play man on third downs, in Dime, where they bring in Trey Flowers as their dime back and match him up with TE. 

 

When asked what's one thing that the Bengals D doesn't do well that he thinks the Bills could exploit, Cosell says that he doesn't think the Bengals are great at one thing on D, he thinks overall as a D they're really solid.  Then he goes on to suggest that there could be opportunities for Dawson Knox in this game.

 

One thing that I don't think is too uncommon in the NFL, is that various comments from players suggest to me that the Bengals have focused on maybe the last 2-3 games the Bills have played in their analysis of an opponent they haven't played since 2019.  Which is fine, there's only so much prep that can be done - but for the Bills, the last 3 games are a bit of anomaly for different reasons - the wind and cold in Chicago, the cold and anticipated snow and wind vs. Miami which did finally show up late, the snow/rain just around freezing point for the Jets. 

 

If they're watching the Jets game to see how the Jets shut us down, my take is really that the Bills shut themselves down most of that game with passes that could have been caught but weren't - Diggs, Knox, McKenzie, Singletary, maybe Davis too?  We had what, 5 scored drops for that game? and more that were catchable.

 

So we'll see. 

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, LEBills said:

The Chiefs were about to put the game away until Kelce fumbled it and allowed Bengals to come back

True, although games featuring two quality teams have a way of coming down to a key play or two. This MNF matchup will probably be no different. 

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I'd definitely be overwhelmed with uncontrollable joyful bliss if that happens.....

 

But to say this and only basing it off how Bengals performed against Bucs and Pats (and Won) is a bit short sighted imo. And a Bengals team riding a 7 game win streak to add...

 

Anything can happen, but this is a game that I can only expect a knock down drag out battle going into their house with the importance of what's on the line here. I just have a hard time understanding those who say, " Bills will win big and won't be close". 

Call it optimism call it being a homer.  In these games when every talking head is picking Cincy in a close game I expect the game to be the opposite.  The line is begging for the public to pick Cincy.  With that and the noise coming from Cincy about how good they are I see Cincy set up for a let down.

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Yeah I'm a little surprised with they way couple of their statements are worded. I mean Matt M. and T. Edmunds are one of the top LBers this season. Especially Milano. But hey, I certainly have no problems with them making this reading material for the Bills to see

 

I was thinking about this.  I looked up the last time the Bills played the Bengals.  We had many of the same guys on defense this year, that we had then - Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Milano, Edmunds, Siran Neal, Tre' White, Poyer, even Dean Marlowe!

 

With the exception of Tre' White, who is working his way back from injury, then backups Neal and Marlowe who are a "push", I think they are significantly developed as players.  Edmunds and Milano and Oliver, no question; Lawson and Phillips seem like more disciplined, focused guys.  But it may linger in Mixon's mind like "oh yeah, last time I faced them I could do this and that and the other".

 

But sure, Mixon, poke the bear.  And he could be "on" to something; to some extent, without Hyde and Von Miller and with Tre White not 100%, the Bills are a bit of an "either or" defense where they will decide what they most want to limit when facing a good team, and focus there.  That's how the Packers and the Dolphins were, IMO, able to rack up a pretty absurd number of rush yards against us. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Beck Water

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

Couldn’t agree more. I happen to think Buffalo will take the Bengals to the woodshed on Monday night. But I’m a Bills fan, not a professional commentator. There isn’t much balanced mature stuff anymore. Coverage from national journalists these days just screams “Look at me!”

 

When I see the term "professional commentator" what comes to my mind turns to the poster child of foolishness, Skip Bayless.

He is the antithesis of what was once "the sportswriter".  I need less talk about people's opinions and more about the game itself.

 

I'll take a Steve Sabol over the Skips of the world, all day long.

 

I was hesitant in writing my earlier post but I'm glad I did.  It's good to know I'm not the only one feeling this way.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Call it optimism call it being a homer.  In these games when every talking head is picking Cincy in a close game I expect the game to be the opposite.  The line is begging for the public to pick Cincy.  With that and the noise coming from Cincy about how good they are I see Cincy set up for a let down.

 

Well I do hope this will be the case, also I can't see how their recent statements end up benefiting them. 

[Johnnycage46]

I never really had much of an opinion on the Bengals (mostly irrelevant to me).  But from all their borderline trash talking and their arrogant QB...I hope we smash them and demoralize them.

[MJS]

Man, Poyer has taken an absolute beating this year. Questionable again.

[Beck Water]

Mina Kines weighs in:

 

 

Quoted here by Bengals Insiders Plus Russ Heltman:

 

Quote

At the top of her list lies the Bills' secondary against the Bengals elite wide receiver unit.
 

"One of the reasons I love this game is not just because it's two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in football but also two of the best defensive coaches in football in Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati, and Leslie Frazier in Buffalo," Kimes said on the show. "Frazier's got his work cut out for him because I think the biggest discrepancy talent-wise in this game is those Bengals' wide receivers against a Bills' cornerback group that's been uneven, it's been a revolving door."

Kimes noted All-Pro caliber corner Tredavious White is still trying to find his normal level of play as he works back from the torn ACL he suffered last season.

She anticipates a lot of the same split-safety looks that defenses have tried slowing Joe Burrow down with all season.
 

"Job number one is to not let the Bengals beat you outside," Kimes continued. "You want to force them to attack you to between the numbers where the Bills have the third-best defense in football, EPA per play, so I suspect we're going to see a lot of zone, a lot of split safety. Saw the Patriots have success with some of those looks in the second half against Cincinnati. They're going to try to make Joe Burrow work underneath, run the ball, and hopefully make some mistakes, but it's a very tough matchup because Bengals wide receivers are very, very hard to defend."

 

Who then goes on to say "The Bills' defensive strength lies in its spine rather than the outside, with linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer playing pretty well this season."

 

O.K.  Playing Pretty Well.  Good to Know.

 

[Process]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Mina Kines weighs in:

 

 

Quoted here by Bengals Insiders Plus Russ Heltman:

 

 

Who then goes on to say "The Bills' defensive strength lies in its spine rather than the outside, with linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer playing pretty well this season."

 

O.K.  Playing Pretty Well.  Good to Know.

 

The biggest talent discrepancy in this game is at QB. We have Josh Allen and they have Joe Burrow. That will be the difference.

[Beck Water]

Just now, MJS said:

Man, Poyer has taken an absolute beating this year. Questionable again.

 

Yeah, this concerns me. 

 

Last week when Poyer was on injury report with a knee, he was DNP Tues and Weds then FP on Thurs. and had no game designation.

So definite downgrade this week to DNP Thurs and Fri and limited today, Questionable for the game.

 

I also don't like Stefon Diggs missing 2 of 3 practices - he normally has a vet rest the final practice, but this week of course missing Thurs with "illness".

 

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Man, Poyer has taken an absolute beating this year. Questionable again.

Unfortunately him and many others have also this season. This has been about the most injuries for Bills this season in a while.

[Bimmer323i]

I heard Chris Simms say today that there’s no chance will be able to run the ball against the Bungles… I tend to disagree… If we keep chipping away at it and not abandon the run game early I could definitely see Cook making one guy miss and take one to the house….. Nobodies catching him at full speed in the open field…

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Rockinon said:

That is not a very good plan for Cincy in my opinion. Josh can still sling the rock and Diggs has been quiet the last couple of weeks.  That plus their pass defense is suspect. They will need to drop more defenders into coverage, so having someone spy Josh makes it more difficult for them.

 

As for the running game, not many teams run out of a spread offense. It not only spreads the offense. It spreads the defense too. The Bills will test it and their recent success is reason for optimism. I expect Cincy to almost exclusively keep two deep safeties, so I expect some RB screens in this game as well. Another weapon will be Knox. He'll stay in to block most plays but will bump and then slip into a route too. It will be a balanced attack. A mixture of pass, run and quick dump offs. I do believe Josh will take a couple of deep shots too. Cincy's defense will have their hands full much more than Buffalo's D. This is just an opinion of course. Cincy can get hot. Still, just don't think they are on the same level. They need a better defense. That's the big difference between these teams.

 

I think if Cinci only rushes 3 then Josh will tear them up on the ground himself. I dont think they can play us like they play the Chiefs.

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, this concerns me. 

 

Last week when Poyer was on injury report with a knee, he was DNP Tues and Weds then FP on Thurs. and had no game designation.

So definite downgrade this week to DNP Thurs and Fri and limited today, Questionable for the game.

 

I also don't like Stefon Diggs missing 2 of 3 practices - he normally has a vet rest the final practice, but this week of course missing Thurs with "illness".

 

 

Diggs should be just fine as usual. You mentioned he gets vet rest the final practice anyway, so missing Thursday would basically be routine anyways right?

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, CaliBills said:

 

 

Are the Bengals trying to just give the Bills defense bulletin board material or what?"

 

Im glad we arent the Ravens defense.  They suck this year.  Goes to show that people in the NFL live off name too.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Bimmer323i said:

I heard Chris Simms say today that there’s no chance will be able to run the ball against the Bungles… I tend to disagree… If we keep chipping away at it and not abandon the run game early I could definitely see Cook making one guy miss and take one to the house….. Nobodies catching him at full speed in the open field…

 

I think Bengals will be a bit better against the run, but Bills can certainly do it. Not sure why he woukld say "no chance" 

[newcam2012]

51 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Some good stuff here. Cincy may very well try to establish a run game too, if for no other reason to keep the Buffalo offense off the field. Buffalo's defensive tackles are fairly healthy now though. And our linebackers are good too. Poyer's health is a concern but I think the Bills are simply playing it safe with him.  I think Cincy will find that they will have to lean on the pass game perhaps after finding the run game is not working? Then find out the Buffalo pass defense is better than they thought too. I really hope they do try to get their run game going.

 

As for your 3 bullet points, those are keys in any football game. Lets hope the Bills protect the football and minimize penalties. Not sure how many big plays there will be. Both teams are going to do there best to limit them. As for coaching, I have been thoroughly impressed with Buffalo's in game adjustments. Especially on defense.

 

As for Buffalo's receiving options, I don't know if you've noticed, but Josh has been passing to RBs more lately. Have had some success there too. It's still going to be a balance between run, pass and screens because there is no way Cincy is going to leave a deep WR in single coverage. Josh has been finding all season long that this is how defenses are playing him. He has found ways to keep the offense clicking even though the deep stuff hasn't been there. I still believe the big difference between these two teams is defense. Cincy is going to have a hard time keeping Josh Allen and company in check and not the way around.

Great insight. 

[newcam2012]

43 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Call it optimism call it being a homer.  In these games when every talking head is picking Cincy in a close game I expect the game to be the opposite.  The line is begging for the public to pick Cincy.  With that and the noise coming from Cincy about how good they are I see Cincy set up for a let down.

The Bengals hopefully lose this game. I hardly think it will be because of a Bengal letdown. Arguably ghis is the biggest game of the season. No way no how will either team not be focused and prepared. Execution is a whole other issue.

[BillsSbSoon]

Keep talking bengals…this team quietly sees bulletin board material and takes note like the pats did for years

Edited December 31, 2022 by BillsSbSoon