Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Joe Ferguson]

Poyer may not suit up on Monday?

[BRH]

1 minute ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Poyer may not suit up on Monday?

stop.  He’s playing. 

[stevewin]

32 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

oddly enough, I say “happy new year.” I think my adding of the “S” is only for grocery stores. All grocery stores must end with an S! 

Super Dupers?

[BRH]

Just now, stevewin said:

Super Dupers?

Harris Teeters?  Safeways?  Giants?  Food Lions?

[finn]

11 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Also, if Cincy plays Buffalo like they do KC, they are in trouble. Mahomes is one squirrely QB. That's not Josh. Josh will lower his shoulder and run through a defender. Or stiff arm a defender. Or hurdle a defender. Completely different animal.

I don't think they will. Their defensive coordinator sounds like he fully appreciates what he's up against in Allen. I expect him to play Allen like the Bills played Fields: Keep him in the pocket, assign a spy, and take away the deep ball. Force him to be patient while giving him less time than he usually gets when he extends plays on the run. It's not a perfect plan, because Allen is perfectly capable of picking a team apart from the pocket. But, as we've all seen, he can also get impatient and start forcing balls into tight coverage, ignoring the check-down. 

 

What I wonder is how this plan (assuming they use it) impacts the Bills run game. Any thoughts?

[Big Turk]

38 minutes ago, BRH said:

Blah blah blah. From the Athletic:

 

The biggest game on paper this week is the Monday night tilt between the Bills and Bengals in Cincinnati. Who has the edge as these teams continue to fight it out for the top seed in the AFC?

 

Graff: I’m taking the Bengals at home. Since Week 9, they have the best offense in the NFL according to EPA per play, one spot ahead of the Chiefs. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 11th. Time is running out for them to return to the form we all expected as season-long Super Bowl favorites. So give me Joe Burrow at home.

 

Jones: I think the Bengals can get the job done again. They’re the hottest team in the league, riding a seven-game win streak, and I don’t see any reason why they can’t continue this brand of complementary football that is carrying them. Joe Burrow and his defense have already bested Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen is next.

 

Sando: The Bengals at home have been my choice in this game for the past few weeks, and I’m sticking with it. They should get Josh Allen’s best punch, which could be enough for the Bills to win. I just like how Cincinnati has been playing and think they should be able to pull this one out at home.

 

 

Great analysis.  “Time is running out for [the Bills].”  “I don’t see any reason why [the Bengals] can’t continue.”  “I just like how Cincinnati has been playing.” 🙄

 

I find it funny how people show how little they actually know/watch football when they say stuff like "complementary football" as if Cincy is a good running team. They are 26th in yards rushing this year. Bills are 8th and lead the NFL in Yards per Carry and over the past 7 games are 3rd in the NFL in rushing at 164 YPG behind only the Bears at 169.9 and Ravens at like 166.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Big Turk

[Rockinon]

8 minutes ago, finn said:

I don't think they will. Their defensive coordinator sounds like he fully appreciates what he's up against in Allen. I expect him to play Allen like the Bills played Fields: Keep him in the pocket, assign a spy, and take away the deep ball. Force him to be patient while giving him less time than he usually gets when he extends plays on the run. It's not a perfect plan, because Allen is perfectly capable of picking a team apart from the pocket. But, as we've all seen, he can also get impatient and start forcing balls into tight coverage, ignoring the check-down. 

 

What I wonder is how this plan (assuming they use it) impacts the Bills run game. Any thoughts?

That is not a very good plan for Cincy in my opinion. Josh can still sling the rock and Diggs has been quiet the last couple of weeks.  That plus their pass defense is suspect. They will need to drop more defenders into coverage, so having someone spy Josh makes it more difficult for them.

 

As for the running game, not many teams run out of a spread offense. It not only spreads the offense. It spreads the defense too. The Bills will test it and their recent success is reason for optimism. I expect Cincy to almost exclusively keep two deep safeties, so I expect some RB screens in this game as well. Another weapon will be Knox. He'll stay in to block most plays but will bump and then slip into a route too. It will be a balanced attack. A mixture of pass, run and quick dump offs. I do believe Josh will take a couple of deep shots too. Cincy's defense will have their hands full much more than Buffalo's D. This is just an opinion of course. Cincy can get hot. Still, just don't think they are on the same level. They need a better defense. That's the big difference between these teams.

[97bills]

42 minutes ago, BRH said:

stop.  He’s playing. 

Yea if he doesn’t play we’re in big trouble , so let’s hope so 

[SCBills]

18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I find it funny how people show how little they actually know/watch football when they say stuff like "complementary football" as if Cincy is a good running team. They are 26th in yards rushing this year. Bills are 8th and lead the NFL in Yards per Carry and over the past 7 games are 3rd in the NFL in rushing at 164 YPG behind only the Bears at 169.9 and Ravens at like 166.

 

 

Love the narrative floating around the talking heads that Cinci is the most balanced contender.  
 

Why?

 

Bills passing game is on par. 
 

Bills run game is far superior. 
 

Bills defense is better.  
 

How, exactly, does that make Cinci the most balanced team?

 

They can simply say they trust Burrow and WR’s more, and ok.. we shall see.  But no need to invent narratives. 
 

[Beck Water]

40 minutes ago, BRH said:

Blah blah blah. From the Athletic:

 

The biggest game on paper this week is the Monday night tilt between the Bills and Bengals in Cincinnati. Who has the edge as these teams continue to fight it out for the top seed in the AFC?

 

Graff: I’m taking the Bengals at home. Since Week 9, they have the best offense in the NFL according to EPA per play, one spot ahead of the Chiefs. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 11th. Time is running out for them to return to the form we all expected as season-long Super Bowl favorites. So give me Joe Burrow at home.

 

Jones: I think the Bengals can get the job done again. They’re the hottest team in the league, riding a seven-game win streak, and I don’t see any reason why they can’t continue this brand of complementary football that is carrying them. Joe Burrow and his defense have already bested Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen is next.

 

Sando: The Bengals at home have been my choice in this game for the past few weeks, and I’m sticking with it. They should get Josh Allen’s best punch, which could be enough for the Bills to win. I just like how Cincinnati has been playing and think they should be able to pull this one out at home.

 

 

Great analysis.  “Time is running out for [the Bills].”  “I don’t see any reason why [the Bengals] can’t continue.”  “I just like how Cincinnati has been playing.” 🙄

 

WTH is "EPA per play"?

 

I just hate little tid-bits like this.  Why pick "since week 9"?  It's a 18 week season, so if you want to pick the 2nd half of the season, you would start after week 9, no?

 

That happens to be the start of the Bengals 7 game win streak, but they also had a bye Week 10.

 

It also happens to be the start of a pretty rough stretch for the Bills - no bye, Allen injured his arm at the end of week 9 (or, some think, something happened end of 1st half/start of 2nd half vs Green Bay) with an injury that was predicted to keep him out 2-4 games; the Bills played 3 road games in 12 days including a short week; Bills played in snow, wind and bitter cold. 

 

And managed a 6 game win streak, with a couple of plays away from 7.

 

I don't have a problem with pundits picking the Bengals.  They're a very good team.  Burrow is a very good QB throwing to possibly the best WR trio in the league.  He is deadly when he's allowed to play within their system.  They have a top-10 defense, #8 on points, which may arguably be higher since the return of DJ Reader. 

 

I "get" the observation that the Bills offense hasn't been as productive the last weeks

 

But when you pick an odd game interval (since week 9) and one stat (EPA per play, which I think is a "Frankenstat") it leads me to wonder why, and what a different set of stats would say.

 

And oh, the Bengals are the hottest team riding a 7 game win streak vs the Bills 6 game win streak (with an OT loss) is pretty weak-sauce "pick the horse with the coolest name" kind of logic.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[BRH]

20 minutes ago, 97bills said:

Yea if he doesn’t play we’re in big trouble , so let’s hope so 

 

He's also practicing today.

[ColoradoBills]

I have to take a moment to comment about the upcoming game Monday.

 

The reality is that 2 very good football teams are going head-to-head with the outcome extremely important not only for the 2 teams

playing the game but for the KC Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens too.

 

I want to take this moment to comment at the way games like this are viewed compared to many years ago when I started watching football.

In the past, this game would get "hyped" for the importance of the game.  Fans and sportswriters would comment on its importance

and talk about how great it will be to actually "watch the game and see what happens".

 

Today, it seems to me, all that has changed.  It's all about trying to prove, one way or another, ahead of time what the outcome will be through a

myriad of stats and projections and I'm sorry to say "bullcrap".  I for one, prefer to sit back and wait for these 2 talented teams to

fight it out and enjoy the game for what it is, a great football game.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only one who still thinks this way?

 

I will add one more thing.   It's awesome that my hometown team is involved in this game!

 

Go Bills!

Happy New Year!

[VaMilBill]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I have to take a moment to comment about the upcoming game Monday.

 

The reality is that 2 very good football teams are going head-to-head with the outcome extremely important not only for the 2 teams

playing the game but for the KC Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens too.

 

I want to take this moment to comment at the way games like this are viewed compared to many years ago when I started watching football.

In the past, this game would get "hyped" for the importance of the game.  Fans and sportswriters would comment on its importance

and talk about how great it will be to actually "watch the game and see what happens".

 

Today, it seems to me, all that has changed.  It's all about trying to prove, one way or another, ahead of time what the outcome will be through a

myriad of stats and projections and I'm sorry to say "bullcrap".  I for one, prefer to sit back and wait for these 2 talented teams to

fight it out and enjoy the game for what it is, a great football game.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only one who still thinks this way?

 

I will add one more thing.   It's awesome that my hometown team is involved in this game!

 

Go Bills!

Happy New Year!

Totally agree with you. It has become a d*+k measuring contest. At this point I’m ignoring everything about the game except the injury report and simply waiting for the game to start. 

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I have to take a moment to comment about the upcoming game Monday.

 

The reality is that 2 very good football teams are going head-to-head with the outcome extremely important not only for the 2 teams

playing the game but for the KC Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens too.

 

I want to take this moment to comment at the way games like this are viewed compared to many years ago when I started watching football.

In the past, this game would get "hyped" for the importance of the game.  Fans and sportswriters would comment on its importance

and talk about how great it will be to actually "watch the game and see what happens".

 

Today, it seems to me, all that has changed.  It's all about trying to prove, one way or another, ahead of time what the outcome will be through a

myriad of stats and projections and I'm sorry to say "bullcrap".  I for one, prefer to sit back and wait for these 2 talented teams to

fight it out and enjoy the game for what it is, a great football game.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only one who still thinks this way?

 

I will add one more thing.   It's awesome that my hometown team is involved in this game!

 

Go Bills!

Happy New Year!

Great post, as usual. I agree 💯 

3 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

Totally agree with you. It has become a d*+k measuring contest. At this point I’m ignoring everything about the game except the injury report and simply waiting for the game to start. 

Yup- a d*** measuring contest created by the media and blown out of proportion by ultra sensitive fans 

[Ray Stonada]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I have to take a moment to comment about the upcoming game Monday.

 

The reality is that 2 very good football teams are going head-to-head with the outcome extremely important not only for the 2 teams

playing the game but for the KC Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens too.

 

I want to take this moment to comment at the way games like this are viewed compared to many years ago when I started watching football.

In the past, this game would get "hyped" for the importance of the game.  Fans and sportswriters would comment on its importance

and talk about how great it will be to actually "watch the game and see what happens".

 

Today, it seems to me, all that has changed.  It's all about trying to prove, one way or another, ahead of time what the outcome will be through a

myriad of stats and projections and I'm sorry to say "bullcrap".  I for one, prefer to sit back and wait for these 2 talented teams to

fight it out and enjoy the game for what it is, a great football game.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only one who still thinks this way?

 

I will add one more thing.   It's awesome that my hometown team is involved in this game!

 

Go Bills!

Happy New Year!

Couldn’t agree more. I happen to think Buffalo will take the Bengals to the woodshed on Monday night. But I’m a Bills fan, not a professional commentator. There isn’t much balanced mature stuff anymore. Coverage from national journalists these days just screams “Look at me!”

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, BRH said:

Blah blah blah. From the Athletic:

 

The biggest game on paper this week is the Monday night tilt between the Bills and Bengals in Cincinnati. Who has the edge as these teams continue to fight it out for the top seed in the AFC?

 

Graff: I’m taking the Bengals at home. Since Week 9, they have the best offense in the NFL according to EPA per play, one spot ahead of the Chiefs. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 11th. Time is running out for them to return to the form we all expected as season-long Super Bowl favorites. So give me Joe Burrow at home.

 

Jones: I think the Bengals can get the job done again. They’re the hottest team in the league, riding a seven-game win streak, and I don’t see any reason why they can’t continue this brand of complementary football that is carrying them. Joe Burrow and his defense have already bested Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen is next.

 

Sando: The Bengals at home have been my choice in this game for the past few weeks, and I’m sticking with it. They should get Josh Allen’s best punch, which could be enough for the Bills to win. I just like how Cincinnati has been playing and think they should be able to pull this one out at home.

 

 

Great analysis.  “Time is running out for [the Bills].”  “I don’t see any reason why [the Bengals] can’t continue.”  “I just like how Cincinnati has been playing.” 🙄

Bengals are the bills lite imo.  They aren’t super strong running the football and when the pass blocking is good, burrow looks good.  He doesn’t have the running ability that josh has when stuff goes sideways though.

 

they really haven’t been winning/playing any better than us so I’m not sure what these people are talking about lol they’ve had at least a bad half in the last three games 

[CaliBills]

 

 

Are the Bengals trying to just give the Bills defense bulletin board material or what?"

[Process]

The amount I'm betting on the Bills moneyline continues to go up. 

 

 

[Magox]

They’re definitely talking a lot of *****.   I’m guessing this all starts with Burrow’s cockiness that oozes on down.   I don’t begrudge it, but they are definitely talking a big game and from the way I’m reading into it they don’t really respect our D and are expecting to steamroll us.