Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

i don't want to split hair here. I stand behind what I said. I'm going back to Burrow in his college days too. I saw a winner and a guy who knows how to lead a team to victory.

 

I saw a Burrows who was elite in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. He was absolutely fantastic in Arrowhead leading his team to a huge upset victory. Under attack and pressure he maintained his poise and delivered. Burrow is elite when it comes to big games. Sunday is a big game. You can do the math.

 

Lastly, I agree with your Allen take. My post wasn't meant to be an Allen vs Burrow comparassion. I'd take Allen over Burrow all day any day. 

burrow is elite when he gets good pass protection.  We’ll see if they hold up without la’el collins.  And on the flip side the bills offensive line seems to be full go and the bengals have banged up pass rushers.  Josh looks the best of the three qbs (burrow,Allen,mahomes) when his offensive line is having a rough night imo.     burrow and mahomes are both significantly less effective than josh in those situations 

 

if their backup RT is a dropoff from la’el collins then woof.   they could be in for a long night because collins isn’t even good lol Hakeem adeniji is terrible if thats who they go with 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Exactly, the Bengals top 3 have been targeted 298 times, that's 53% of Burrows passes. The Bills top 3 have been targeted 290 times, 54% of Allen's passes. 

 

When Chase was out, Higgins and Boyd got more targets so their production went up.

 

There's not 4 more games of production to be had due to missed snaps. It's not like Burrow was going to have 200 more passes for his wr's to catch.  

 

If Chase didn't get hurt then his numbers would be up and Higgins and Boyd's would be down. 

 

 

 

Thanks for doing this! Super enlightening. 
 

I need to find the analysis, but I did a breakdown of team’s plays over the last decade or so. It was somewhere between 950 - 1100 plays in a season (believe it was before they started 17 games seasons). Then you’ve gotta divvy that up between run/pass. 
 

Meaning there is a limit on targets… Player X has to lose opportunities in order for Player Y to gain them. I think a lot of fans misunderstand there’s a cap on how many targets are in a given season. 
 

The Bills are just shy of 1,000 plays this year… going to be hard for them to break 1,100. A few teams are over 1,000 now… but won’t go above 1,200 plays. 
 

Rough math on a 55/45 Run/Pass split means there’s around 660 targets available per team. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

16 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

i don't want to split hair here. I stand behind what I said. I'm going back to Burrow in his college days too. I saw a winner and a guy who knows how to lead a team to victory.

 

I saw a Burrows who was elite in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. He was absolutely fantastic in Arrowhead leading his team to a huge upset victory. Under attack and pressure he maintained his poise and delivered. Burrow is elite when it comes to big games. Sunday is a big game. You can do the math.

 

Lastly, I agree with your Allen take. My post wasn't meant to be an Allen vs Burrow comparassion. I'd take Allen over Burrow all day any day. 

 

 You need to rewatch the 3 playoff games and the Super Bowl game then, I think the media pundits got in your head. He wasn't elite in the playoffs or Super Bowl, I stand by what I said also and backed it up with facts and stats. Yours is based purely on opinion, despite the facts shown to you prove otherwise.

 

 Heck they shouldn't even have won the WC game. The refs badly blew a play that gave the Bengals a td even though a ref blew the play dead. The rule clearly states that if a ref blows his whistle during a play, the play doesn't count and the ball is to be returned to its original spot and the down is replayed. They don't win without that td counting.

 

 In the end, you have your beliefs, I have mine. Either way no skin off my back.

 

 

 

 

 

[jcamm1966]

Good Josh we win bad Josh we lose simple

[BritBill]

2 minutes ago, jcamm1966 said:

Good Josh we win bad Josh we lose simple

Good Josh we win. Bad Josh we have a chance. Because he’s an ultimate competitive MOFO. 

[FLFan]

9 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

@FilthyBeast says we're doomed.

 

 

So he is haunting Twitter now?  Good place for him.  

[Chandler#81]

Happy 5th Anniversary!

 

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, FLFan said:

So he is haunting Twitter now?  Good place for him.  

So unfortunate and sad.

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 You need to rewatch the 3 playoff games and the Super Bowl game then, I think the media pundits got in your head. He wasn't elite in the playoffs or Super Bowl, I stand by what I said also and backed it up with facts and stats. Yours is based purely on opinion, despite the facts shown to you prove otherwise.

 

 Heck they shouldn't even have won the WC game. The refs badly blew a play that gave the Bengals a td even though a ref blew the play dead. The rule clearly states that if a ref blows his whistle during a play, the play doesn't count and the ball is to be returned to its original spot and the down is replayed. They don't win without that td counting.

 

 In the end, you have your beliefs, I have mine. Either way no skin off my back.

 

 

 

 

 

I hear you. I think many football fans get enamored with stats. Sure they are important and give you a general picture and platform to look at. However, stats can be deceiving and often don't tell a accurate picture. Let me use Allen as an example. Look at his college stats. Look at his accuracy. No need to get the numbers because we all know them. Prior stats confirm he was very unlikely to become much more accurate. Would you agree? See my point?

 

Furthermore, show me the stats that show heart, will to win, leadership, and ability to make others better. Mike White this year comes to mind as a good example. So you can refer to the stats all you want. They are what they are.

 

When I see Burrow in a big game I clearly see a man who is elite. I saw it in college, last year, and a bit this year. There is a reason why his name is associated with the likes of Mahomes and Allen. It's not because he's average or very good. It's because he's reached elite status. In short, the stats don't tell the whole picture and that's clear with Burrow. Trust your eyes just as much as your mathematical stats. 

[newcam2012]

7 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

burrow is elite when he gets good pass protection.  We’ll see if they hold up without la’el collins.  And on the flip side the bills offensive line seems to be full go and the bengals have banged up pass rushers.  Josh looks the best of the three qbs (burrow,Allen,mahomes) when his offensive line is having a rough night imo.     burrow and mahomes are both significantly less effective than josh in those situations 

 

if their backup RT is a dropoff from la’el collins then woof.   they could be in for a long night because collins isn’t even good lol Hakeem adeniji is terrible if thats who they go with 

The Bengals oline certainly is one the Bills can and hopefully exploit. 

 

Show me a QB who is really good with a very poor oline. Perhaps Allen is the best off the 3 when his oline breaks down. Hard to really know. Mahomes has an excellent oline. Imho, Allen is a better QB than Burrows. If I had to rate the 3 QBs it would be

1. Mahomes 2. Allen and

3. Burrows. 

 

One thing of note that I haven't seen mentioned is the offensive scheme of the Bengals. They play a west coast offense which is based on a very quick release passing game. Burrows gets the ball out very quickly. I believe he's in the top 5 in the NFL. Also, he is very good against the blitz. In short, his quick release may negate some of the effectiveness of the Bills pass rush. The Bills defense will have to successfully try to get Burrows to hold the ball longer. Burrows is quick to throw the ball away and move on to the next play. Perhaps the Bills can clog the middle, have tighter coverage, mix up their defenses looks to confuse Burrow, etc...

 

Chase is very explosive, Higgins is huge and catches contested passes, Boyd is a solid #3, and Nixon and Perine can do damage catching the ball. The Bills defense has a difficult task on Monday night. With that said, they will be ready to play. They have to tackle well this game which hasn't been a strength of the team. 

 

Just my thoughts. Thanks.

Edited December 31, 2022 by newcam2012

[K-9]

2 hours ago, BritBill said:

Good Josh we win. Bad Josh we have a chance. Because he’s an ultimate competitive MOFO. 

We have won a ton of games with bad Josh since he came into the league. Because bad Josh just needs to give good Josh that one opportunity. 

[Since1981]

Good Josh is top 1-3 QB 

Bad Josh is top 10 QB. 
 

I’ll take me some more Josh. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Bengal’s weakness is supposedly their boundary corners. Diggs is due for a big game. 

[muppy]

14 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, I had the distinct impression from Josh's demeanor and what he said about conversations/discussions - that Joe Burrow wasn't his favorite person.  This was mixed in of course with a bunch of polite, praiseful stuff about how he really respects Burrow as a player and a person etcetera

 

Then in Burrow's interview, he said he and Josh are friends and he likes to hang out with him because Josh is outgoing and a fun guy to hang with.

 

Bottom line and the readers digest version: I think it is based on personality types.  Burrow is much too Ken barbie senor fashionista than Josh Allen. #17 who is as down to earth extremely gifted just Great guy  Extremely Likeable,

 

  Burrow? meh not so much. Yeah I think he would grate on my nerves too.

 

m 

3 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Bengal’s weakness is supposedly their boundary corners. Diggs is due for a big game. 

RAWR Yes~!~!!!

 

love it

 

GO BILLS

Edited December 31, 2022 by muppy

[muppy]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well sure, and I made the same quip in answer to a question “how have any teams beaten them?”

 

But @muppy’s key points (turnovers, key penalties, being physically dominant in the trenches) usually do have a strong influence on that “most points” thing

I do tend to post a lot of the obvious SCOREBOARD clearly is the true crux of the matter.  👍

 

GO BILLS!~!~!!!

 

this game can't get here soon enough. 

[muppy]

10 hours ago, Process said:

If by forgiving you mean allowing trolls to endlessly spam the boards than yes they are forgiving. There are quite a few posters who should have been permanently banned a long time ago.

The ignore feature does work well  here. I don't suffer trolls. But one persons troll is anothers negative opinion  side of any debate.  I dunno. 

[BRH]

1 minute ago, muppy said:

The ignore feature does work well  here. I don't suffer trolls. But one persons troll is anothers negative opinion  side of any debate.  I dunno. 

One person’s troll can also be another person’s neverending source of entertainment.  Which is, I suspect, the real reason some of these posters have lasted this long.  

[BRH]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This was my approach for much of the drought, to be honest. But rather than the preemptive psychic security blanket of a black out, I adhered to a drinking regimen/game of doing a shot every time the Bills got scored on and every time they turned the ball over. I was living in Florida in my 20s, and this was a sad, warped way to feel connected to the suffering. There was one loss to the Patriots around 2008 that had me literally half-blind in the 2nd half. 

That was SB XVII for me.  I drank a beer every time the Cowboys scored.  Good thing Beebe caught Lett. 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

 

When I see Burrow in a big game I clearly see a man who is elite. I saw it in college, last year, and a bit this year. There is a reason why his name is associated with the likes of Mahomes and Allen. It's not because he's average or very good. It's because he's reached elite status. In short, the stats don't tell the whole picture and that's clear with Burrow. Trust your eyes just as much as your mathematical stats. 

Which playoff game has Burrow looked elite in?

 

Im not saying he isn’t a Top 5 QB.  He is. Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert … and then I may go Lawrence at 5. 
 

But I do think there’s a big game drop off from Allen & Mahomes to Burrow.  
 

Burrow’s Bengals rode last season’s playoff run on some luck, what seemed like 50 field goals, and a defense that hit stride at the right time and has figured out a way to confuse Mahomes.  
 

It wasn’t a run due to Burrow.  Most playoff games I watch of Buffalo and KC… the QB is very much on display.