Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Big Turk]

34 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

My annoyance isn't that people are picking the Bengals to win. They are a good team. 

 

It's a combination of two things: One, the sheer volume of people taking the Bengals over the Bills. Two, the reasons I keep hearing are problems with the Bills that the Bengals also are dealing with to an extent or have it worse, and yet those issues are somehow backbreaking killers for the Bills and no big deal for the Bengals.

 This illustrates my point nicely. I have heard time and time again about how insane the receiving group the Bengals have. That Chase, Higgins and Boyd are the most dangerous trio in the NFL, moreso than Hill and Waddle. At the same time, I keep hearing about how Josh is a one man show with no one but Diggs pulling their weight. And look, the Bills have done more with seemingly less.

 

To be fair tho, the Bengals 3 have 2,170 snaps amongst them while the Bills have 2,447 snaps among them. Or to put it another way, those 3 Bills all have more snaps than the highest Bengal(Boyd at 749). So in reality on a per snap basis, the Bengals are doing more. 277 extra snaps is about 4 games worth or maybe 4.5 games.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Big Turk

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Process said:

3.7-1 on Allen having a decent game and bills winning is silly

where was that

 

[Process]

13 hours ago, Process said:

Allen's passing prop lines are absurdly low for this game, wow. His numbers haven't been good lately but one thing that has always been consistent is that he shows up in prime time. 

 

Over under passing yards 240.5

Over 1.5 TDs at -120

 

??????

3.7-1 on Allen having a decent game and bills winning is silly

[Since1981]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That Chase, Higgins and Boyd are the most dangerous trio in the NFL, moreso than Hill and Waddle. At the same time, I keep hearing about how Josh is a one man show with no one but Diggs pulling their weight. And look, the Bills have done more with seemingly less

No disrespect to our WRs. But top 3 catchers are statistically similar Cinci Miami Buff. But, BUF stats are only close for #2,#3, #4 because of Mr Allen. There’s a reason we even talk about Beasley/Brown. I can’t imagine how good Allen would look with Cinci Miami WRs

Edited December 30, 2022 by Since1981

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

Burrow crushes the blitz and has a 110 passer rating against it.

 

I think this has to be a rush 4, disguise in the secondary type of game

I've been reading that it's better to rush 3. Idk though we have a hard enough time getting to the passer with 4.  We know there won't be many blitzes at all with the style D that the Bills play. I think it'll actually be much of the same we've seen all year. Bills will get gashed for the first quarter until they adjust. I'm just hoping that the offense is at its peak to play in a shoot out. That's just how I feel. I'm not saying I'm right. Go Bills 

[The Wiz]

36 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

where was that

 

Better question is how did you reply to his post before he posted it?  Are you from the future?

[Motorin']

50 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

To be fair tho, the Bengals 3 have 2,170 snaps amongst them while the Bills have 2,447 snaps among them. Or to put it another way, those 3 Bills all have more snaps than the highest Bengal(Boyd at 749). So in reality on a per snap basis, the Bengals are doing more. 277 extra snaps is about 4 games worth or maybe 4.5 games.

 

I don't think that makes sense. Burrow has attempted 30 more passes than Allen this year. 

 

 

[fergie's ire]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I don't think that makes sense. Burrow has attempted 30 more passes than Allen this year. 

 

 

Chase missed 4 games.  That probably had a lot to do with it.  Yes, Davis also missed time, too...but missing a number one for four games really cuts into the number of snaps.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

To be fair tho, the Bengals 3 have 2,170 snaps amongst them while the Bills have 2,447 snaps among them. Or to put it another way, those 3 Bills all have more snaps than the highest Bengal(Boyd at 749). So in reality on a per snap basis, the Bengals are doing more. 277 extra snaps is about 4 games worth or maybe 4.5 games.

I’d be more interested in target comparisons. Snaps just tell me players were on the field when the ball was snapped. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Well if you believe in bulletin board material the Bengals (and National Media) are giving you paragraphs of it. 
 

They know they’ve arrived and done it all.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

5 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I've been reading that it's better to rush 3. Idk though we have a hard enough time getting to the passer with 4.  We know there won't be many blitzes at all with the style D that the Bills play. I think it'll actually be much of the same we've seen all year. Bills will get gashed for the first quarter until they adjust. I'm just hoping that the offense is at its peak to play in a shoot out. That's just how I feel. I'm not saying I'm right. Go Bills 

That's what the Bengals did vs Mahomes. And, due respect meant, I think there's a few reasons why Burrow is a different beast.

 

The comparisons I keep hearing to Burrow are Brady: throws accurate, can run better than you think. He is a classic drop back passer working at a high level. When a play breaks down. In comparison Mahomes is more willing to improvise. I want Burrow to feel the heat more aggressively.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Better question is how did you reply to his post before he posted it?  Are you from the future?

Yes, and I'm here to tell you the Bills won the Super Bowl.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Yes, and I'm here to tell you the Bills won the Super Bowl.

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That's what the Bengals did vs Mahomes. And, due respect meant, I think there's a few reasons why Burrow is a different beast.

 

The comparisons I keep hearing to Burrow are Brady: throws accurate, can run better than you think. He is a classic drop back passer working at a high level. When a play breaks down. In comparison Mahomes is more willing to improvise. I want Burrow to feel the heat more aggressively.

Do we all realize that Burrow does throw interceptions too right?

 

That his offense isn’t scoring 35 ppg right?

 

That he eats a boatload of sacks?

 

We act like he’s something we’ve never seen.

 

If we can’t get it done, then somebody else will eat that garbage Bengals OLine and spike that arrogant QB.

 

Think Philly or San Fran (who the Bengals haven’t played) are scared?

 

Treating the Bengals like they’re the 1989 49ers.

[Goin Breakdown]

6 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That's what the Bengals did vs Mahomes. And, due respect meant, I think there's a few reasons why Burrow is a different beast.

 

The comparisons I keep hearing to Burrow are Brady: throws accurate, can run better than you think. He is a classic drop back passer working at a high level. When a play breaks down. In comparison Mahomes is more willing to improvise. I want Burrow to feel the heat more aggressively.

Yeah. I'd like him to as well. I know a lot had been made of our DBs and I get it, but they really do need to step

up. I'm not the guy who complains about coverage sacks lol. 
just reading you post...it's crazy how many great QBs are in the league right now. Just glad we have one of them. 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Not a damned thing.

 

I just enjoy seeing *****-talkers get their just desserts.

 

Everyone does. But do it like diggs and roast them on the field. You can even let them know after. No need to try to hurt a player. That stuff can escalate and I don’t want another injury on our side. Honestly I am hoping apple talks smack to diggs.

 

On the 3 man rush and pressure, I think (and others have said) this is a game where coverage sets up pass rush. They don’t want to run and burrow gets the ball out quicker than anyone than Brady. With their line being a bit banged up you need to get burrow off his first read to allow the rush to get home.
 

Check out some of Anthony Prohaskas from cover 1 film review from Wednesday. He shows how TB did great in the first half to get Burrow to have to process the coverage which let the rush get home. 

[eball]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

But their weapons are SO MUCH BETTER than ours!!!!!

 

Bills by a billion.

 

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, eball said:

 

But their weapons are SO MUCH BETTER than ours!!!!!

 

Bills by a billion.

 

That stat is a little misleading to play devils advocate- Chase missed i believe 3-4 games, Higgins has missed mulitple games and Boyd has missed 1-2 games and has been in and out of the lineup.

 

Their weapons are stacked and arguably are the best in the league, but... Josh> Burrow 

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

But their weapons are SO MUCH BETTER than ours!!!!!

 

Bills by a billion.

 

Perception and the way that the media chooses to spin narratives are such interesting things.

The perception of this game seems to be that the Bengals are riding a big wave of momentum, having won 7 straight, being called by many "the hottest team in football", and boasting one of the best -- if not THE best -- collections of offensive weapons in the league.

Meanwhile, the Bills are riding a 6 game winning streak of their own. Devin Singletary has more rushing yards than Joe Mixon on 29 less carries, and the Bills top three pass-catchers have 13 less catches for 67 less yards and 2 MORE touchdowns than the Bengals top three pass catchers. Yet the Bills are considered to have a very lacking collection of offensive weapons.

Perception. Narratives. Strange.

[Ray Stonada]

22 minutes ago, Logic said:

Perception and the way that the media chooses to spin narratives are such interesting things.

The perception of this game seems to be that the Bengals are riding a big wave of momentum, having won 7 straight, being called by many "the hottest team in football", and boasting one of the best -- if not THE best -- collections of offensive weapons in the league.

Meanwhile, the Bills are riding a 6 game winning streak of their own. Devin Singletary has more rushing yards than Joe Mixon on 29 less carries, and the Bills top three pass-catchers have 13 less catches for 67 less yards and 2 MORE touchdowns than the Bengals top three pass catchers. Yet the Bills are considered to have a very lacking collection of offensive weapons.

Perception. Narratives. Strange.

Thank you. My feeling is we come to play and win this game by two scores.