Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Didn't they win 3 away games along the way including the Chiefs? They are a better team than us until proven otherwise. 

 

They played Las Vegas at home, then Tennessee and KC on the road.  Give them their Propers.  They had a good plan for Tennessee and a good plan for KC/Tenn.  But that's 2 home games, not 3.

 

As for this "better team than us until proven otherwise", if you're talking about last season, one of the mid-70s Pittsburgh Steelers has a comment for you:

"You better take those rings off and put them on a shelf, Boys; they won't help us this year".

[Solomon Grundy]

42 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Diggs missed practice with an illness 

Probably from eating his own cooking😎

[Fleezoid]

Me on Monday ......

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

It probably was a message board overstatement, but people like Skip Bayless and Mina Kimes are almost giddy the morning after Josh has a bad game. Bayless was saying that he would take Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen until earlier THIS SEASON. Mike Tannenbaum still says that he would take Justin Herbert over Josh. The reason for all this is because they want to have their draft night takes proven right. 

I just wanna make Mahomes play a road playoff game for once.

 

I put this up elsewhere, but I think this series of breakdowns from Baldy kind of illustrate part of the reason.

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/baldinger-s-film-breakdown-of-josh-allen-s-best-plays-ahead-of-mnf-vs-bengals

 

As he puts it, Burrow and Allen are different QB.  Burrow is all about timing and rhythm and getting the ball out on time to the right guy.

 

Allen may or may not have a guy he could get the ball out to in rhythm, but he will create off script and off platform.

 

I think for a lot of analysts, Josh Allen has them wondering when the Pixie Dust will wear off and they have more understanding of, thus more faith in, a guy who plays as well within a system as Burrows can.

[Mojo44]

33 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Didn't they win 3 away games along the way including the Chiefs? They are a better team than us until proven otherwise. 

This take is so last year and, consequently, irrelevant to the current situation.

[TBBills]

1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:

This take is so last year and, consequently, irrelevant to the current situation.

Hey man the Rams won the Super Bowl last year they are a better team... oh wait

[BillnutinHouston]

1 hour ago, BRH said:

“In uniform for practice today” does not necessarily mean “practicing.”

 

Agree.  I'll use any old excuse to wear orange.

 

[TBBills]

I cannot believe the playoffs start this Monday!

[boyst]

Morse cleared concussion protocol.  This is bigly 

 

Benford also has window open to return. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by boyst

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Agreed.  Monday night is massive.  While an L doesn’t mean our season is over by any means, it almost halves our chances of making the SB imo.  

I'd say not "almost halves", but "more than halves". It's really massive.

 

If we lose, it will most likely go (numbers are obviously just my random guesses):

 

WC at home vs Chargers/Dolphins - 70%

Div on road vs Bengals - 55% (I'd say we will be actually bigger favorites than now since it's hard to beat same team twice in a row)

AFCCG on road vs Chiefs - 50%

SB - 55%

 

If we win:

Bye

Div at home vs Titans/Jags/Ravens - 75%

AFCCG at home vs Chiefs - 55%

SB - 55%

 

So by my numbers we have less than 11% to win SB if we lose and almost 23% if we win. 538 has it even worse - 11% if we lose, 29% if we win - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/. That is brutal difference.

 

All of it is simplified, since loss doesn't automatically means we are 3 seed, both Chiefs and Bengals might still lose another game (and we can also lose to Pats if we win). But it applies in general. This is really a huge game.

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not going to get into any kind of altercation here. I stand by everything I said. This post here you have moved the goal post. So be it, no need for a back and forth banter. 

I did not move anything.  Now who is being disingenuous?  I have had it with your game for some time.  Welcome to ignore.  

[BRH]

6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

This is really a huge game.

Bigger for us than for them, since they would still need help to get the 1 seed and the bye if they win, whereas we will continue to control our own destiny when we win.  

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Allen said that Burrows trained with Jordan Palmer.  

 

I believe Palmer has all the guys he trains with working on the same field at times, and also has them meet weekly and watch film together etc.

 

So in terms of time spent together, it seems probable that Allen has spent more time interacting with Burrows than either Mahomes or Rodgers. 

 

 

 

 

Kinda all business, though...

[astb41]

random time sensitive question here and didn't know where to ask it.  I have the chance to snag 2 tickets in the M&T Club for a playoff game for face value.  This would be my first time at a Bills home game, and the indoor seating feels like I'd be losing some of the experience watching through glass and not out in the elements with the people.  Even though it would keep us out of the cold.  Do ya'll recommend the M&T club seats?  Does it include food or drinks or anything?  Thanks!  sorry for posting this here.

[Greg S]

Me on Monday night between 8:30 and 11:30 or so. I really believe if the Bills win this one then they are SB bound. Let KC, CIN or anyone come to OP and try to get a win.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Greg S

[eball]

7 minutes ago, astb41 said:

random time sensitive question here and didn't know where to ask it.  I have the chance to snag 2 tickets in the M&T Club for a playoff game for face value.  This would be my first time at a Bills home game, and the indoor seating feels like I'd be losing some of the experience watching through glass and not out in the elements with the people.  Even though it would keep us out of the cold.  Do ya'll recommend the M&T club seats?  Does it include food or drinks or anything?  Thanks!  sorry for posting this here.

 

Dude, go for it.  You'll be at a playoff game without having to worry about the elements.  I think those enclosed clubs include catering, but I don't know for sure.

 

[Logic]

9 minutes ago, astb41 said:

random time sensitive question here and didn't know where to ask it.  I have the chance to snag 2 tickets in the M&T Club for a playoff game for face value.  This would be my first time at a Bills home game, and the indoor seating feels like I'd be losing some of the experience watching through glass and not out in the elements with the people.  Even though it would keep us out of the cold.  Do ya'll recommend the M&T club seats?  Does it include food or drinks or anything?  Thanks!  sorry for posting this here.

 

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

Dude, go for it.  You'll be at a playoff game without having to worry about the elements.  I think those enclosed clubs include catering, but I don't know for sure.

 

What Eball said.

Not only that, but I promise you, that if you feel at any time during the game like you're missing out and would rather be in the elements with the rowdies, just walk down to the cheap seats and ask if anyone within earshot would like to trade their two seats for your two club level tickets. You'll have no trouble making the swap.

[astb41]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

What Eball said.

Not only that, but I promise you, that if you feel at any time during the game like you're missing out and would rather be in the elements with the rowdies, just walk down to the cheap seats and ask if anyone within earshot would like to trade their two seats for your two club level tickets. You'll have no trouble making the swap.

 

Thanks!  Good call on the swap haha, didn't think of that!

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

What Eball said.

Not only that, but I promise you, that if you feel at any time during the game like you're missing out and would rather be in the elements with the rowdies, just walk down to the cheap seats and ask if anyone within earshot would like to trade their two seats for your two club level tickets. You'll have no trouble making the swap.

 

Just an FYI, the M&T Club is not the "typical" club seating...all of the seats are behind glass.

 

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I'd say not "almost halves", but "more than halves". It's really massive.

 

If we lose, it will most likely go (numbers are obviously just my random guesses):

 

WC at home vs Chargers/Dolphins - 70%

Div on road vs Bengals - 55% (I'd say we will be actually bigger favorites than now since it's hard to beat same team twice in a row)

AFCCG on road vs Chiefs - 50%

SB - 55%

 

If we win:

Bye

Div at home vs Titans/Jags/Ravens - 75%

AFCCG at home vs Chiefs - 55%

SB - 55%

 

So by my numbers we have less than 11% to win SB if we lose and almost 23% if we win. 538 has it even worse - 11% if we lose, 29% if we win - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/. That is brutal difference.

 

All of it is simplified, since loss doesn't automatically means we are 3 seed, both Chiefs and Bengals might still lose another game (and we can also lose to Pats if we win). But it applies in general. This is really a huge game.

 

 

First off, thanks for the 538 site.  I'm not going to crunch the numbers (I know you are using a guesstimate) but the overall

"Getting the Bye" increasing the chances of a SB being doubled, makes perfect sense to me.

 

It also goes to show that a "Superbowl" favorite does not have as much of a statistical advantage as most "I'm not good at math" people

think. I'm going to keep an eye on this site as to their probability numbers and if I have some points to make, I will let you see them.