Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[EasternOHBillsFan]

9 hours ago, arcane said:

In Chicago vs a vastly inferior team, a game in which none of us or the Bills really felt was out of control, he got a bit greedy and tried to get some MVP stats. It didn't work. He will not play like this with the 1 seed on the line. We will see peak Josh on Monday. 

 

That's my take on this... my wife is calling me a Josh Allen apologist right now but my guess is that she's tired of hearing about him from me LMAO

[ALLinALLEN]

This may be a weird question but I'm not in Buffalo anymore so figured I'd ask. Anyone know if the Bills are practicing in full this week? I know the travel bans are still in place in some areas and I'm wondering if that's limiting our full practices at all. Haven't seen anyone report on it yet so wanted to ask.

[RiotAct]

9 minutes ago, ALLinALLEN said:

This may be a weird question but I'm not in Buffalo anymore so figured I'd ask. Anyone know if the Bills are practicing in full this week? I know the travel bans are still in place in some areas and I'm wondering if that's limiting our full practices at all. Haven't seen anyone report on it yet so wanted to ask.

the driving bans are only in place in Cheektowaga and Buffalo still.  

 

The Bills players should have no problem getting to and participating in practice.

 

EDIT:  actually I just checked, looks like the Cheektowaga driving ban was lifted yesterday.

Edited December 28, 2022 by RiotAct

[ALLinALLEN]

4 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the driving bans are only in place in Cheektowaga and Buffalo still.  

 

The Bills players should have no problem getting to and participating in practice.

 

EDIT:  actually I just checked, looks like the Cheektowaga driving ban was lifted yesterday.

That's what I kind of figured. Yesterday would have been the first day of practice right? Just wonder if we're being hampered at all by that and didnt see any media saying otherwise. Thank you.

[RiotAct]

Just now, ALLinALLEN said:

That's what I kind of figured. Yesterday would have been the first day of practice right? Just wonder if we're being hampered at all by that and didnt see any media saying otherwise. Thank you.

for a MNF game I -think- it’s Wednesday through Saturday but I could be wrong on that?  I’m too lazy to go back and check the Week 2 practice report… lol

[ALLinALLEN]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

for a MNF game I -think- it’s Wednesday through Saturday but I could be wrong on that?  I’m too lazy to go back and check the Week 2 practice report… lol

Feel you're spot on with that lol

[GottaRun]

Win on Monday night and the only road game left this year will be the Super Bowl...

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

Win on Monday night and the only road game left this year will be the Super Bowl...

this is an awesome way of looking at it.  Biggest game of the season so far, for sure.

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

Win on Monday night and the only road game left this year will be the Super Bowl...

 

Yup. Playing 2 playoff games at home vs 3 with 2 of them on the road most likely. Biggest regular season game the Bills have played in a long time coming up.

[BuffaloBaumer]

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

 

The Super Bowls were the biggest, but this is one of the biggest regular season games in Bills history. 

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

... my wife is calling me a Josh Allen apologist right now 

Grounds for divorce?

[Franco_92]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This will sound crazy but in my eyes, this is the biggest game in Buffalo sports history. This group of guys is not losing at home in the playoffs, no way. No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.  Will every game be huge in the playoffs? Obviously, but the ticket gets punched Monday night in my opinion....should be one hell of a game.

I've watched since 2005 and it's the biggest regular season game of my fanhood at least

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, ALLinALLEN said:

This may be a weird question but I'm not in Buffalo anymore so figured I'd ask. Anyone know if the Bills are practicing in full this week? I know the travel bans are still in place in some areas and I'm wondering if that's limiting our full practices at all. Haven't seen anyone report on it yet so wanted to ask.

Yes they are but the first practice isn’t until tomorrow because of the Monday game 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

Maybe 6 dollars this time? 

 

Lmao!! 

[BRH]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

The Super Bowls were the biggest, but this is one of the biggest regular season games in Bills history. 

I would say this one was as big. 1990, Kelly out, Dolphins 11-3, Bills 12-2.  Winner almost certainly wins the AFC East and gets a first-round bye.  Loser gets the 4 seed and has to play in the wildcard round before a rematch at the winner’s place.  
 

This also had a revenge tint to it - not just because the ‘70s were fresher in everyone’s minds, but because the Dolphins had absolutely waxed us at Joe Robbie in September.  (Remember Bruce yelling at Marv for taking him out of the game?)
 

Anyway, we throttled them in Buffalo (sacking the previously nearly-unsackable Marino three times) and won the division.  We beat them again at home in the divisional round and then destroyed the Raiders en route to our first SB.  
 

Hoping for a similar outcome this time, except with the road team winning this week. 

This one is probably bigger, honestly.  The Dolphins and Raiders were our AFC competition that year, but I think we would have beaten them at their place in the playoffs. This year, while we can beat the Chiefs and Bengals on the road, I would prefer not to have to prove it twice each. 
 

Edited December 28, 2022 by BRH

[BuffaloBaumer]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

The Super Bowls were the biggest, but this is one of the biggest regular season games in Bills history. 

That team never finish the job so that is why I am indicating they currently this now becomes the biggest game.That team never finish the job so that is why I am indicating they currently this now becomes the biggest game.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible.  I‘ll spice up the approach for you.  Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%

chance of winning (55%).  In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential.  So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).

 

Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second.  Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).

 

Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed.  Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%.  Overall odds of making SB are 17%.

 

Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double.  And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.

 

Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

Thanks for the numbers. Well thought out but still its all relative and had variables that just can't be factored in. Such as weather, injuries, and match ups. That's really my point.

 

I believe your point is that the #1 seed is a huge advantage. I couldn't agree more. You are 100% correct. Playing one less game and being at home is obviously big! Anyone who thinks otherwise really isn't a knowledgeable football fan. With that said, it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl appearance or even a playoff win. Look at last year as can example. 

 

In concluding the #1 seed is a very big deal and advantage. Yet, if the Bills lose the #1 seed they still can represent the AFC. Each path is substantially different with different degrees of difficulty. Personally, I like the Bills chances of winning the AFC as the #1 seed. If they lose that seed it's very possible they might have to win in Cinci and in KC. I really don't like that. 

[The Wiz]

15 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Stats only tell part of the picture. Burrow and Mahomes have had their share of poor games too. I really don't agree with your premise that Allen has more highs and lows than the two. Since you pointed out those stats wouldn't you have to factor other variables in like weather, injuries, and strength of schedule? See where I'm going...

I absolutely agree on the other variables.  My point was more to the fact that the MVP voters aren't going to look at those variables.  They are gonna look at their final stats and maybe pick a few games to actually see him play and make their decision.

 

I have a hard time believing these people that are voting are doing all-22 breakdowns of every single game from the MVP candidates.  

 

And a someone else said related to another sport, most of these guys have a player in mind already and someone has to do something exceptional to change it.

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I absolutely agree on the other variables.  My point was more to the fact that the MVP voters aren't going to look at those variables.  They are gonna look at their final stats and maybe pick a few games to actually see him play and make their decision.

 

I have a hard time believing these people that are voting are doing all-22 breakdowns of every single game from the MVP candidates.  

 

And a someone else said related to another sport, most of these guys have a player in mind already and someone has to do something exceptional to change it.

Bingo. They’re not looking at them or at least not much. It’s not an MVP award anymore, it’s a best QB stats award. Easy as looking at stats, no real leg work or in depth analysis required. As pointed out , Mahomes has played almost every game in ideal conditions. That’s more than enough to account for a couple hundred yards over a season.