Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Means absolutely nothing. 

 

Means something...it means the Bills are a better team.

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree it’s def cause of his injury. But it def also limits him in this game.  Why else would they reduce his snap count? Do you think he plays 60% if the snaps (he played 43% last week)?  I also think with these offenses we’re gonna see a lot of plays (59 plays is the lowest the bills have since the bye).  As we both agree he’s a good player and so the less we see of him the better. 

 

He likely has his snap count increase as long as he got through it without issue.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The Bills didn’t do anything out of the ordinary to stop Jefferson, and he became the reason they came back in the 4th-Quarter.

 

We’ve seen the Bills play standard against Kelce and just get torched all-game, especially when he was allowed to get free release. 

 

So is is the smart play to employ our standard Nickel, trusting the scheme, or step out of the shell to try and take Chase away with something new? 
 

It goes without saying that Rousseau going against the backup RT goes into the Top 3 most important matchups to win, to hit Burrow repeatedly. 
 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m probably in the minority but I get more pumped about a crazy road atmosphere then a home atmosphere.

 

 

I hear what you are saying, but give me crazy Bills Mafia 100% of the time

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Bills didn’t do anything out of the ordinary to stop Jefferson, and he became the reason they came back in the 4th-Quarter.

 

We’ve seen the Bills play standard against Kelce and just get torched all-game, especially when he was allowed to get free release. 

 

So is is the smart play to employ our standard Nickel, trusting the scheme, or step out of the shell to try and take Chase away with something new? 
 

It goes without saying that Rousseau going against the backup RT goes into the Top 3 most important matchups to win, to hit Burrow repeatedly. 
 

 

I agree. Rousseau can wreck this game

[BRH]

6 hours ago, purple haze said:

There a first time for everything.  At some point through the years McDermott will get his road playoff win.   Home is obviously preferable but if they have to play on the road they won’t be overmatched.  

I don’t believe Marv got his first road playoff win (it was in Pittsburgh after the Comeback) until after the Bills had already been to two consecutive SBs. Up to that point he had been 0-2 in road playoff games, having lost to Cincinnati in ‘88 and Cleveland in ‘89.
 

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

No because one team is better than another.  It does take the 20% chance or so you have of losing away though if you have that bye week.  Plus, it gives your team time for banged up players to rest and prevents possible injuries from the first round game.  Also, there's a shot of a Wild Card team of upsetting the Chiefs and/or Bengals in the first round. 

 

The biggest benefit of the one seed is you're guaranteed not to have to play the Bengals or Chiefs in the Divisional round.  If we're the three seed we'd likely have to go through Cincinnati and Kansas City in their house to reach the Super Bowl.  This game is huge.

not quite…

 

If we win out and the Bengals lose to the Ravens next week, Cincy drops to 5 (Baltimore wins division) and we would host them in the divisional round if they, the Chiefs, and the Ravens all win on wildcard weekend.  Cincy would have to travel to either the Jags or Titans in the WC, while the Ravens would host LAC and the Chiefs would host whatever comes out of that mess fighting for the 7 seed. 

 

Anyway, we all know that when we get the 1 seed the trolls will be out in full force with “the two-week layoff will make them rusty” and “the other teams are staying sharp by playing” and other such canards.  Just be ready. 
 

One more thing.  Think about how much harder it is now than it was in the ‘90s.  Back then there were 16 regular season games, two byes and just five playoff teams.  Plus the scheduling was more random - we had eight division games (six of them against patsies), four non-conference games, and just four other games that depended on where we finished the previous year.  Now it’s six division games (and the AFCE is stronger now than it was then), four non-conference games, and seven games that depend on the previous year’s finish.  Those extra games in the last category are likely to make the schedule harder for a good team.  And the last game of the season now is usually a divisional matchup instead of a mail-in non-conference game. Given that and everything else that’s happened this year, 12-3 so far is pretty damned impressive. 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by BRH

[ChasBB]

On 12/26/2022 at 3:28 PM, Greg S said:

 

I want them to win every game of course but I really want this one. If they win at Cincinnati, then the #1 seed is theirs most likely. I don't want the Bills to have to travel to CIN or KC in the playoffs.

Patriots cannot be overlooked even if Bills take Cincy.  I think Bills need to win out because does not look like the Chiefs will stumble (but I think Vegas may give them a harder time than some may think).  Cincy could easily lose to Ravens final week, but the Bills control their destiny is the bottom line, so just keep winning and everything else resolves itself.

Edited December 28, 2022 by ChasBB
add content

[Doc Brown]

22 minutes ago, BRH said:

If we win out and the Bengals lose to the Ravens next week, Cincy drops to 5 (Baltimore wins division) and we would host them in the divisional round if they, the Chiefs, and the Ravens all win on wildcard weekend.  Cincy would have to travel to either the Jags or Titans in the WC, while the Ravens would host LAC and the Chiefs would host whatever comes out of that mess fighting for the 7 seed. 

 

Anyway, we all know that when we get the 1 seed the trolls will be out in full force with “the two-week layoff will make them rusty” and “the other teams are staying sharp by playing” and other such canards.  Just be ready. 
 

 

True but I doubt the Bengals lose to the Ravens at home.  Even if they did I think the Chargers or Dolphins (assuming Tua is playing) beat the Ravens in the Wild Card round.

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The odds are in fact, literally, 50/50. Win or Lose. Two outcomes (come playoff time...no ties). It's tidy logic. 

So it's 50/50 this week between the Broncos vs KC? If so, I'll take KC and bet you a huge amount. I mean it's a coin flip as you say. 

[CSBill]

2 hours ago, ChasBB said:

Patriots cannot be overlooked even if Bills take Cincy.  I think Bills need to win out because does not look like the Chiefs will stumble (but I think Vegas may give them a harder time than some may think).  Cincy could easily lose to Ravens final week, but the Bills control their destiny is the bottom line, so just keep winning and everything else resolves itself.

 

"Just win, baby!" That's all, just win.

[PatsFanNH]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Mixon and company have not been good on the ground this year. They are not and have not been as successful on the ground as you might think. 
 

The Bills are averaging more yards per game as well and WAY more yards per carry…bengals are actually pretty poor in this area, almost bottom of the league. Yes, there is some QB running factored into this, but it still isn’t equal and definitely not in favor of the Bengals

Everything you say is true, I just think if a RB Is going to make a difference it be Mixon more than Singletary. I have seen more games where your run game, not counting Allen, is inept this year or if it is working the Bills don’t stick with it.  Besides it’s an opinion  

[Aurelius]

14 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Everything you say is true, I just think if a RB Is going to make a difference it be Mixon more than Singletary. I have seen more games where your run game, not counting Allen, is inept this year or if it is working the Bills don’t stick with it.  Besides it’s an opinion  

Cut it any way you like to, you can’t take Allen out of the equation because he’s basically another running back out there.  He’s been rushing for 700+ every season.  He’s actually I think passed Michael Vick’s rushing totals in 5 years.  As odd as it seems, while the Bills seemed “inept” much of the season, Bills are in the top 4 right now in overall rushing stats.  A lot of that is also because James Cook is become a viable and moreso somewhat dangerous option there.  Where the Bills get you is they have a QB that can take off at any time plus 2 backs that are a threat to rush or catch out of the backfield right now.  No we aren’t a one man show like Derrick Henry but surprisingly enough have become a lot more effective than we thought we would be in the ground.  

Edited December 28, 2022 by Aurelius

[newcam2012]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Everything you say is true, I just think if a RB Is going to make a difference it be Mixon more than Singletary. I have seen more games where your run game, not counting Allen, is inept this year or if it is working the Bills don’t stick with it.  Besides it’s an opinion  

For Cinci, the RBs catch lots of passes. I believe they are in the top 5 in the NFL. Their west coast offensive scheme is based on rhythm and getting the ball off quickly. Burrows is near the top of QBs in releasing the ball quickly. Not sure what scheme the Bills D employs to stop Cinci. It will be a very tough task to stop Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Could be the best 3 WR combo in the league. WR Irwin whoever he is has been burning it up too. Burrow will make plays because he's elite. This game should tell us off the Bills D is legit. 

 

Conversely, I'm not sold on the Cinci D. The Bills are much more balanced and a very good offense. I believe Allen will be ready to play. I don't want to see an overhyped and poor Allen out of the gate. Seems to be a theme throughout his career. The Bills offense should have success against the Bengals. 

[Since1981]

Our d is going to need to keep them at a few 3’s (red zone d) to allow our O to score 7 (red zone o). That’s how this game is going to go. 

[Ray Stonada]

Burrow likes to take tons of RB check downs and throw 15-20 yard 50/50 balls to Chase and Higgins. Buffalo will have to move quickly and tackle well, and focus on breaking up passes rather than picks or hard hits on WRs. Hold the runs and check downs to 5 yards or less, and break up the 50/50 pass attempts, and the Bengals will not move the ball.

 

The Bills, by contrast, can beat you more different ways.  

[Greg S]

This has to be the most important regular season game the Bills have played in a long time.

 

Win and most likely get the #1 seed. Get WC weekend off with all playoff games in OP.

Lose and most likely get the #3 seed. Play LAC (most likely) on WC weekend. Survive that and they are looking at potential road games at CIN and KC to get to the SB.

 

Please win. I honestly believe if they win then they are SB bound. Lose and then all bets are off.

[Dr. Who]

30 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

Cut it any way you like to, you can’t take Allen out of the equation because he’s basically another running back out there.  He’s been rushing for 700+ every season.  He’s actually I think passed Michael Vick’s rushing totals in 5 years.  As odd as it seems, while the Bills seemed “inept” much of the season, Bills are in the top 4 right now in overall rushing stats.  A lot of that is also because James Cook is become a viable and moreso somewhat dangerous option there.  Where the Bills get you is they have a QB that can take off at any time plus 2 backs that are a threat to rush or catch out of the backfield right now.  No we aren’t a one man show like Derrick Henry but surprisingly enough have become a lot more effective than we thought we would be in the ground.  

Excellent points. Like your Meditations as well.

[strive_for_five_guy]

8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible.  I‘ll spice up the approach for you.  Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%

chance of winning (55%).  In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential.  So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).

 

Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second.  Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).

 

Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed.  Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%.  Overall odds of making SB are 17%.

 

Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double.  And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.

 

Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

[nucci]

14 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Burrow likes to take tons of RB check downs and throw 15-20 yard 50/50 balls to Chase and Higgins. Buffalo will have to move quickly and tackle well, and focus on breaking up passes rather than picks or hard hits on WRs. Hold the runs and check downs to 5 yards or less, and break up the 50/50 pass attempts, and the Bengals will not move the ball.

 

The Bills, by contrast, can beat you more different ways.  

So basically, stop their offense and we win?

[eball]

5 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible.  I‘ll spice up the approach for you.  Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%

chance of winning (55%).  In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential.  So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).

 

Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second.  Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).

 

Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed.  Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%.  Overall odds of making SB are 17%.

 

Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double.  And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.

 

Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

 

Not sure about your percentages, but the extra week of rest and only having to play two games instead of three, with both at home, should be enough for anyone to see what a huge advantage it is...

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Not sure about your percentages, but the extra week of rest and only having to play two games instead of three, with both at home, should be enough for anyone to see what a huge advantage it is...

 

Should be, but some need more spoon feeding than others.

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

So it's 50/50 this week between the Broncos vs KC? If so, I'll take KC and bet you a huge amount. I mean it's a coin flip as you say. 

 

Maybe 6 dollars this time?