Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Since1981]

Wait until the bills team finds a “normal” week, mental, physical state. It’s like these guys have gone thru war together. Wait until they normalize a week!!

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

What an epic Monday night match up! Excited to say the least 

[newcam2012]

15 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it.  Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance.  This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage.  So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

[Wyobills89]

Can't wait to watch Josh and Logan go at it. Qb of the O vs Qb of the D. The seeding impact just man this is going to be a great game can't wait. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Bills given a 54.8% chance to win per ESPN FPI prediction 

Means absolutely nothing. 

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

A completely reasonable approximation to get a rough idea of the impacts a bye can have on your chances

[Richard Noggin]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Flawed logic from the start. Every game isn't 50/50. 

 

The odds are in fact, literally, 50/50. Win or Lose. Two outcomes (come playoff time...no ties). It's tidy logic. 

[Franco_92]

2 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The odds are in fact, literally, 50/50. Win or Lose. Two outcomes (come playoff time...no ties). It's tidy logic. 

Well, this isn't true either 

[Richard Noggin]

15 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it.  Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance.  This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage.  So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

 

Of course, it would be important to compare this maths to the ACTUAL historical playoff results with respect to seeding. I'll bet it deviates from this model considerably. (Doesn't diminish the hypothetical, mathematical advantage of eliminating one more chance to be...eliminated.)

 

1 minute ago, arcane said:

Well, this isn't true either 

 

Two outcomes. It's a coin flip, mathematically. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Richard Noggin

[Franco_92]

9 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Of course, it would be important to compare this maths to the ACTUAL historical playoff results with respect to seeding. I'll bet it deviates from this model considerably. (Doesn't diminish the hypothetical, mathematical advantage of eliminating one more chance to be...eliminated.)

 

 

Two outcomes. It's a coin flip, mathematically. 

No

My son will either be the best NFL quarterback to ever live, or he won't be. Those are two categories. Is there a 50% chance my son will be the best NFL quarterback to ever live? 

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, arcane said:

No

My son will either be the best NFL quarterback to ever live, or he won't be. Those are two categories. Is there a 50% chance my son will be the best NFL quarterback to ever live? 

 

There are more than the two outcomes you've chosen here. In a playoff football game, it is either win or lose. 

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

There are more than the two outcomes you've chosen here. In a playoff football game, it is either win or lose. 

That doesn't mean each team is equally likely to win lol 

 

I presented a perfectly legitimate binary operating under the same rules you outlined

I'll try another one. The poster is correct in saying that the odds of a team winning a given game aren't 50/50. If the Eagles played the Texans 100 times over the next two years, they would win substantially more than 50 of the games. That is what he's saying

 

Saying that the odds are 50/50 because only winning and losing are possible options is like saying that the odds of me passing a Harvard admissions test are 50/50, because it's a pass/fail test. Clearly my odds can vary based on how smart I am. If I am >150 IQ, my odds are probably significantly higher than 50%. If I am <100 IQ, my odds are significantly lower than 50%, even though it's "Pass or Fail" with no other options

Edited December 28, 2022 by arcane

[Chandler#81]

17 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

First off, the game isn't played on paper. Secondly, the Bills aren't better than the Bengals all through the roster. The Bengals WR roster is by far better than the Bills. 

 

Also, you just can't dismiss or not acknowledge that the Bengals are playing at home. Sure the Bills are a very good road team. Nevertheless, the Bengals home field is a pretty good advantage. FWIT, t's generally worth 2 or 3 points from a bettors perspective.

 

Chandler, this game is going to be a dog fight to the bitter end. The Bills need a very very good Allen this game. No bonehead INTs, use his legs, and be the elite QB we know he is. I suspect a Burrows at home will play well. The guy is a proven winner and he will likely succeed if it comes down to the final drive. Allen can absolutely do the same but it's much more difficult on the road. 

Well, you have a perfect record of never being right. WTH makes you think you are now? 🤦‍♂️

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Well it is the Jungle.

I’m probably in the minority but I get more pumped about a crazy road atmosphere then a home atmosphere.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Maybe some where asking, but maybe they weren't. I wouldn't know I'm not a Viking fan not making hot take claims. I'm only analyzing based on some stats shown there. Truthfully it's all kind of subjective. 

Definitely he is not seeing the number of touches he was.

 

First 9-games he went over double digit targets 6 times.

 

In the 6-games since, he’s been targeted 10+ times just once. 
 

Just listening to Dorsey’s press conferences, he just calls what he calls and doesn’t deviate off what he is seeing. 
 

The Bills seem to trust whoever is on the field equally and when the ball goes your way it’s your turn to make the play.

 

You can see this in Cook’s touches. By all measures he seems to be breaking out, but is he constantly going to see 10+ carries a game now? He hasn’t so far. 

[billsbackto81]

Frazier is gonna have to do something to get Burrow uncomfortable. Watched the highlights of their last game and NE basically just gave him everything underneath which he was more than happy to take. With all their weapons that's basically death by a thousand cuts. If Josh is on we'll be fine. Their D doesn't seem all that imposing. Hamlin scares the heck out of me with his awful angles and Dane has been regressing. Tre still working his way back. Secondary better have it together for us to stand a chance.

[Doc Brown]

47 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Two outcomes. It's a coin flip, mathematically. 

No because one team is better than another.  It does take the 20% chance or so you have of losing away though if you have that bye week.  Plus, it gives your team time for banged up players to rest and prevents possible injuries from the first round game.  Also, there's a shot of a Wild Card team of upsetting the Chiefs and/or Bengals in the first round. 

 

The biggest benefit of the one seed is you're guaranteed not to have to play the Bengals or Chiefs in the Divisional round.  If we're the three seed we'd likely have to go through Cincinnati and Kansas City in their house to reach the Super Bowl.  This game is huge.

[Boatdrinks]

22 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Frazier is gonna have to do something to get Burrow uncomfortable. Watched the highlights of their last game and NE basically just gave him everything underneath which he was more than happy to take. With all their weapons that's basically death by a thousand cuts. If Josh is on we'll be fine. Their D doesn't seem all that imposing. Hamlin scares the heck out of me with his awful angles and Dane has been regressing. Tre still working his way back. Secondary better have it together for us to stand a chance.

Death by a thousand cuts is pretty much the Bills defensive philosophy to a T. Didn’t see that game , but I did see NE had a good chance to win late. That’s about what I expect here. A last team with the ball and some time on the clock wins type deal. Josh will probably be the difference win or lose. 

[billieve420]

25 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Frazier is gonna have to do something to get Burrow uncomfortable. Watched the highlights of their last game and NE basically just gave him everything underneath which he was more than happy to take. With all their weapons that's basically death by a thousand cuts. If Josh is on we'll be fine. Their D doesn't seem all that imposing. Hamlin scares the heck out of me with his awful angles and Dane has been regressing. Tre still working his way back. Secondary better have it together for us to stand a chance.

Going to need to disrupt the timing and force Burrow to hold onto ball longer. Worry about the Bills defense sitting back and letting Burrows carve them up. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Going to need to disrupt the timing and force Burrow to hold onto ball longer. Worry about the Bills defense sitting back and letting Burrows carve them up. 

McD and Frazier are pretty good at coming up with defensive game plans that give them a great chance to win. They’ll be ready. Josh is going to determine if the Bills win this game.