Status of the AFCE going forward

[Inigo Montoya]

Dolphins; 

Cap Space;  Negative $6.7 mm (26th in the NFL)

Draft Capital;  No 1st or 4th rounder.  One pick in each of the other rounds.  Projected draft position 18-22 range.

 

The Dolphins amassed a war chest of cap space and draft picks over the last couple of season but all of that is gone now. They should have two 1st rounders this year but lost a 1st rounder for tampering with Brady and then traded away their other 1st rounder for Bradley Chubb.  The issue with the Dolphins starts and stops with Tua.   He played well in the beginning of the season but it looks like defenses have caught up with his game and now he's struggling.  Despite the best 1/2 WR tandem in the NFL, Tua is not getting the job done.  The Phins have solid pieces on their roster but they're learning the hard way that without a legit QB it is hard to win a championship.  With a big question mark at QB and no draft capital to draft or trade for one, they might be forced to go into the free agent market and overpay for a Garoppolo, Minshew, Brady, or Rodgers.  My guess is they ultimately give Tua one more year to straighten things out and if he can't they'll have a 1st rounder in 2024 and can jump back into the QB draft sweepstakes.  The Dolphins are not a bad team and they play the Bills hard, but I think they have a ceiling below the Bills with Tua under center.

 

Jets;  

Cap Space; $15.9 mm  (15th in the NFL)

Draft Capital;  They have all of their picks except a 5th rounder, and have five 6th rounders.  Should be drafting in the 15-18 range.

 

Like the Dolphins, the Jets had a mountain of draft capital and cap space over the last couple of seasons and Joe Douglas has spent it building a solid roster adding talent on both sides of the ball.  Unfortunately for Joe Douglas, he also drafted Zach Wilson.  This is reportedly not a great QB draft, and the Jets could roll the dice with another 1st round QB again or jump into the Garoppolo, Minshew, Rodgers, Brady sweepstakes.   I think a game managing Garoppolo would be a good fit there.  Their defense is legit and they have quality skill position players and will get Breece Hall back next season.  They just need a QB.  Let's hope they don't find one. 

 

Patriots;   

Cap Space;  $54 mm  (4th in the NFL)

Draft Capital; They have all of their picks and an extra 3rd/4th rounder, and three 6th rounders.  Should be drafting in the 15-18 range.

 

Their roster is devoid of any significant talent.  Belichick has eliminated any chance Mac had to develop this season with his bizarre 'no offensive coordinator" move.  That team is more than a single draft and free agency away from relevance.  I know players will follow the money to a point,  but I don't think a lot of free agents want to go to New England anymore.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Robert Kraft clean house this off season and turn the franchise keys over to some fresh blood.  The status quo with Belichick going forward means more .500 season in Foxborough.  I think as long as Bill is calling the shots there they are going to continue to struggle.  From best coach in the league to anchor in three short years.  Couldn't happen to a nicer guy or franchise.  The Pats are at least two seasons away from giving the Bills any trouble.

 

Bills;

Cap Space;  Negative $3.5 mm  (25th in the NFL)

Draft Capital;  The Bills have their 1st-6th round selections, and an extra 6th.  They traded their 7th for Dean Marlowe.  They will have the last pick of the 1st round 🙂

 

We all know where the Bills are as a franchise, no need to summarize.

 

In short, none of our AFCE competitors have a franchise QB, and not much of a chance to get one outside of the free agent market.  An aging Brady and Rodgers in the division doesn't scare me like it used to. I don't think they have much left in the tank.  Minshew has moxy but isn't a franchise QB.  Garoppolo is a game manager who could work for the Jets or Dolphins but wouldn't move the dial much in New England.  If Josh stays healthy I think we have at least 1-2 more seasons where the Bills are the class of the division.  It's hard to win in this league without a franchise QB.  It can be done, the 49ers come to mind, but it's definitely the exception and not the rule.

 

 

[MJS]

I think it is less so that Tua has been figured out and more so that he is playing better teams now. He has played better this season, but the stretches of games where he played the best were all against bad teams. Now that he is playing better teams, he looks a lot worse.

 

He is just another decent QB who needs to significantly develop to be considered a franchise QB, which is an uphill battle for him because he doesn't have elite physical traits to fall back on.

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think it is less so that Tua has been figured out and more so that he is playing better teams now. He has played better this season, but the stretches of games where he played the best were all against bad teams. Now that he is playing better teams, he looks a lot worse.

 

He is just another decent QB who needs to significantly develop to be considered a franchise QB, which is an uphill battle for him because he doesn't have elite physical traits to fall back on.

Not to turn this into a Tua thread, but yesterday I noticed that he has a really long straight-armed throwing motion. Like he’s throwing a javelin.

[Inigo Montoya]

15 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think it is less so that Tua has been figured out and more so that he is playing better teams now. He has played better this season, but the stretches of games where he played the best were all against bad teams. Now that he is playing better teams, he looks a lot worse.

 

He is just another decent QB who needs to significantly develop to be considered a franchise QB, which is an uphill battle for him because he doesn't have elite physical traits to fall back on.

 

I think playing better defense is a factor, but I also think defenses are starting to treat Tua like Lamar, they are flooding the middle of the field and forcing him outside the hashmarks knowing he struggles with those throws.  

[eball]

Mike White has shown some moxie and could make the Jets the best of the group (behind Buffalo of course), but he has already shown a propensity for injury in his two seasons.

 

[Greg S]

8 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Not to turn this into a Tua thread, but yesterday I noticed that he has a really long straight-armed throwing motion. Like he’s throwing a javelin.

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

If Miami does try to jump back into QB race in 2024, they likely will still be too good of a team in 2023 to have a good draft position in 24.  Be shocked if they are drafting in top 15 less a trade and even with a trade, it would have to be like 2 or 3 #1 picks or maybe throw in Waddle or Phillips to get to say the top 2 or 3 in the draft.  Unless they get real lucky and find someone who doesn't look that good and falls way down in the draft, they may still have trouble finding that guy.  do agree think they will give Tua another year and try to figure out what else they can put around him.

 

Without that 7th round draft pick, think the Bills will struggle mightily to improve next year!

[Greg S]

Look who is still alive.

 

(1) Michael Nania on Twitter: "- Win out - 1 Pats loss (MIA or BUF) And the Jets are in." / Twitter

[DCbillsfan]

Nice writeup OP.  I think the Dolphins problems run a little deeper than Tua.  As mentioned above, the schedule became more difficult and Tua's play has gone down.  Their play calling is a head scratcher at times.  It's a big play offense but they appear too reliant on the big play.  

 

The Jets have some nice pieces but are missing the most important piece.  Plus they have players, Quinnen Williams for one, that are going to get paid real soon.  Plus they have 3 first rounders from last year's draft  (Gardner, Wison, and Johnson) which look like nice additions but how do you retain all of them when their rookie deals run out?  Especially if you don't have a franchise QB on the roster.

 

Patriots are really lacking talent.  What current Patriots player would you want instead of the Bills corresponding player?  Maybe Kyle Dugger over Damar Hamlin if I have the position correct?

[SoCal Deek]

20 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Look who is still alive.

 

(1) Michael Nania on Twitter: "- Win out - 1 Pats loss (MIA or BUF) And the Jets are in." / Twitter

Hard to believe but I think that’s true. Yikes

[TFBillsfan]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Hard to believe but I think that’s true. Yikes

I don’t think they win out but if they do they earned it. @Seattle and @Mia.    

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Provided Josh is healthy we can hit the snooze button on our way to division championships until one of the other three teams picks up a franchise QB. 

[BRH]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

Not to turn this into a Tua thread, but yesterday I noticed that he has a really long straight-armed throwing motion. Like he’s throwing a javelin.

This is every weak-armed QB.  Kelly threw like that his last couple of years.  Even Josh did it when his elbow was bothering him.  Do it for too long and eventually the rotator cuff will start to bark too. 

[fergie's ire]

I think that the biggest issue in the division is that now all three other teams have serious questions at QB.  Makes it so much easier when you know you have THE guy.

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

 

You beat me to it.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I think it is less so that Tua has been figured out and more so that he is playing better teams now. He has played better this season, but the stretches of games where he played the best were all against bad teams. Now that he is playing better teams, he looks a lot worse.

 

He is just another decent QB who needs to significantly develop to be considered a franchise QB, which is an uphill battle for him because he doesn't have elite physical traits to fall back on.

I agree..Tua is a good QB that is developing.  He is having a season similar to what Josh had when he went 10-6 but lost to good teams.  I see the Dolphins making the playoff but not being able to go deep (like that Bills team choking against the Texans). 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Mike White has shown some moxie and could make the Jets the best of the group (behind Buffalo of course), but he has already shown a propensity for injury in his two seasons.

 

 

He has a long wind up release which leaves his ribs exposed to contact longer than the average QB. We saw the result of this firsthand. Most QBs in the situation he was in when Oliver and Milano got to him will have already gotten the ball out of their hands and their bodies back in position to absorb the hit better.

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He has a long wind up release which leaves his ribs exposed to contact longer than the average QB. We saw the result of this firsthand. Most QBs in the situation he was in when Oliver and Milano got to him will have already gotten the ball out of their hands and their bodies back in position to absorb the hit better.

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Mike White has shown some moxie and could make the Jets the best of the group (behind Buffalo of course), but he has already shown a propensity for injury in his two seasons.

 

 

He was pretty decent in each game he played besides Buffalo. I don't know if he can be consistent enough though, but will be interesting to see if Jets don't look at QBs in draft/FA or whatever and decide to move forward with him as their starter going into next season 

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

If Miami does try to jump back into QB race in 2024, they likely will still be too good of a team in 2023 to have a good draft position in 24.  Be shocked if they are drafting in top 15 less a trade and even with a trade, it would have to be like 2 or 3 #1 picks or maybe throw in Waddle or Phillips to get to say the top 2 or 3 in the draft.  Unless they get real lucky and find someone who doesn't look that good and falls way down in the draft, they may still have trouble finding that guy.  do agree think they will give Tua another year and try to figure out what else they can put around him.

 

Without that 7th round draft pick, think the Bills will struggle mightily to improve next year!

2 years Hill will be on the backsidr of his career, so im fine with it.

 

We saw it with Jon brown, type of receiver where losing a step is a major problem. Thats Hil

 

Reveivers like Diggs can age more gracefully later in their career!!