Win the Next 5 Games and We Have Our First Super Bowl

[ToGoGo]

We just won the last 6 under intense adversity. Why not 5 more? 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Strive for Five!

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

This throws it into sharp relief just how hard it is to win the big one.  Let's assume the following win probabilities...

 

Bengals:  60%

Patriots: 85%

 

Divisional round opponent: 75%

Championship round opponent: 60%

SB opponent: 50%

 

Winning all five = 11.4%

 

Of course there's also the path where we lose one of the regular season games and have to win 4 straight playoff games, probably only one at home, yielding roughly the same chances.  So you add those together to get about a 20% chance.

 

And I'm really not pessimistic about this!  A bunch of the other playoff teams have like a 3-5% chance.  It's just hard.

[Mynamemike]

Well ***** that’s all they have to do?  Let’s do this thang!  Merry Christmas to all.  Hopefully the team gets home safe to spend time with the fam for the holiday. Stay safe out there everyone 🍻🦅🇺🇸❄️🎄

[Tierlifer]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Strive for Five!

I like it!!

 

Any other past Wegmans employees here remember this saying? Haha

[NobesBLO13]

Math checks out.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds.

[Playoffs?]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds.

Suppose if we beat Cincy… and KC loses to Denver…  then I don’t THINK the Pats game means anything. AFC clinched for us.  (Sorry if I’m mistaken here.)
Play backups most of the game. Win or lose.   Enjoy bye week to prep and get healthy. Win the next two games in Buffalo. Win Super Bowl.

[EffKCChiefs]

2 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

Suppose if we beat Cincy… and KC loses to Denver…  then I don’t THINK the Pats game means anything. AFC clinched for us.  (Sorry if I’m mistaken here.)
Play backups most of the game. Win or lose.   Enjoy bye week to prep and get healthy. Win the next two games in Buffalo. Win Super Bowl.

This would be a fantastic scenario 

[Motorin']

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds.

 

Better tank the rest of the  season for a higher draft pick!

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds.

 

 

Bengals are on a longer win streak.......they have won 7 straight.   Also 8 of 9.

 

Chiefs have been similarly hot since the loss to Buffalo they've only lost to Cinci.

 

Bills have had a more recent poor stretch of games/multiple losses than the other contenders for the #1 seed.

 

I don't believe "odds" matter much in this situation.........running off 11 straight wins in meaningful games at some point is not *that* unusual for a SB contender..............and Vegas still has Buffalo and Philly as the teams with the best chances to win the SB at 19%...........but even if odds mattered Buffalo is by no means "due" to lose to one of those teams that have been on longer hot streaks.   

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

This throws it into sharp relief just how hard it is to win the big one.  Let's assume the following win probabilities...

 

Bengals:  60%

Patriots: 85%

 

Divisional round opponent: 75%

Championship round opponent: 60%

SB opponent: 50%

 

Winning all five = 11.4%

 

Of course there's also the path where we lose one of the regular season games and have to win 4 straight playoff games, probably only one at home, yielding roughly the same chances.  So you add those together to get about a 20% chance.

 

And I'm really not pessimistic about this!  A bunch of the other playoff teams have like a 3-5% chance.  It's just hard.

whelp, so much for that then.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

13 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

whelp, so much for that then.

Definitely not what I was saying!  Just tough.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Definitely not what I was saying!  Just tough.

I know. it was tough 4 times in a row. too bad they didn't at least get one. imagine, 4 straight and no lombardi. so you know just getting there, is tough. one thing though, this team has shown a lot of toughness and resiliency. I'm thinking they have a better shot to win then the team that went 4 straight.

[Dr.Sack]

To the OP: our odds are dramatically different depending on the results of our next two games. Win, and there’s a very clear path. Lose and play 3 playoff games, likely 2 at Cincy and KC. 
 

 

[ToGoGo]

42 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

To the OP: our odds are dramatically different depending on the results of our next two games. Win, and there’s a very clear path. Lose and play 3 playoff games, likely 2 at Cincy and KC. 
 

 

 

Agree. But I'm technically correct. 5 straight and we're planning the parade. 

[SMAKCruiser]

5 hours ago, Tierlifer said:

I like it!!

 

Any other past Wegmans employees here remember this saying? Haha

Not a Wegman's employee, but I remember the ads.   Wasn't it a promo from Wegmans to get us to eat 5 servings of vegetables a day?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Realistically they could lose their next 3 and still win the Super Bowl, but I get your point

 

Edit:2

Edited December 25, 2022 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Airseven]

Factually accurate!👍🏼

[SMAKCruiser]

6 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Realistically they could lose their next 3 and still win the Super Bowl, but I get your point

If they lose their next 3, they would be out of the playoffs.