Will we see the same light boxes and heavy coverage looks against Cincy?

[SCBills]

It almost makes sense, if your Dorsey, to call plays with one read .. check down to the RB in the flat … until you back teams out of this type of defense.  
 

It’s clear we do have that play call, because there’s times Josh drops back and immediately checks down.  They typically pick up 8-15 yards every time. 
 

Will be interesting to see how Cinci defends Josh.  I’ve always thought he would torch the style they deploy against Mahomes, because unlike Mahomes, Allen with simply run through the light box and away from the spy on some designed stuff. 
 

Anyone see how Hendrickson played yesterday?   Reader is really good at DT, Hubbard is decent but banged up, and Hendrickson is an above average pass rusher but playing through a broken wrist right now. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

41 minutes ago, boyst said:

I don't disagree but you can't play superman. You must play Clark Kent. No one can play superman.

I think it's more like sticking to the play call as much as possible and when improvising and going off-script is necessary being smart with the ball.

Edited December 25, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I think it's more like sticking to the play call as much as possible and when improvising and going off-script is necessary being smart with the ball.

I missed some big swaths of the game due to all that holiday BS. I didn't see the improvising when I did see the game. Miami is a better representation of the Josh that goes to cinci.

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

You have to take the bad with the good with a QB like Josh

 

The bad is his arm arrogance and how that impacts his decision making. The good is his arm arrogance and how that impacts his decision making.

 

Josh often is a second late to his check down because he know he can extend plays and he’s always looking deep first. There’s no problem reading deep to shallow but he has to process it quicker and get to his check down or short throw sooner. He’s a smart guy, so I’m having trouble understanding why he doesn’t understand or believe that if he hits those shorter throws earlier in the game and sooner in the play it will open up things downfield so much quicker. I don’t get it.

 

 

 I don't think it is as simple as you make it out,

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:

Yes, and someone else mentioned the word regression.  That is what is a bit maddening and gets lost.  Last year, at then end of the year when he was great, Josh took what the defense gave him very well, and read the defense pre-snap very well.  It's why they picked apart the Patriots in the second game they played.  Patriots tried to take away everything deep and Josh picked them apart.  There were a lot of throws to Singletary and Know about 5 to 7 yards downfield that they often took for an extra 5 or 6 yards.  So, we were getting a lot of yards just taking the short stuff quickly.  Then when the Patriots switched it up to take that away THEN Josh hit them deep.  I haven't been seeing the same quick reads and decisive throws lately...but hope we will see it when the pressure is on against the Bengals and in the playoffs.

 

 

 Josh was great in the playoffs last year, but still had clunkers late in the year. Once December hit 4 of the last 6 regular season games Josh was below a 60% completion percentage. He had games where he completed 50%, 55.9%, 42.3% & 53.3%, the last 2 were in the last 2 games of the year. He also had 3 INTs and no TDs in week 17 last year against a bad Atlanta team that finished 26th in the league in defense.

 

 Then he shrugged all that off and played the best a QB has ever played in a playoff year throwing for 9 tds 0 ints and posting the highest QB Rating ever in a playoff year at 148.99. He most likely will do the same this year.

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[BRH]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Chicago, aside from some blitzes that Allen couldn't/didn't attack, seemed to employ a lot of light boxes in favor of dropping into heavy coverage looks. And Josh Allen seemed to be impatient often and kept looking downfield when there were gimmes underneath (and then put some POOR mechanics on tape when he did finally check it down). Obviously Dorsey called a pretty solid game against the looks they were getting, with our rushing success as one indicator, but Allen was not on that same page often enough to methodically dissect that defense all game long. 

 

Doesn't Cinci employ similar strategies against Mahomes? I know they tend to rush only 3 and use a spy/delayed blitzer, but otherwise they'd rather lose from a thousand cuts instead of a few big blows. Methinks Allen and Dorsey need to oblige them next week, and run the damned ball and check it down when they're backing off into that shell look. The key, of course, is also making them pay when they gamble and send pressure (like Allen did masterfully against KC for two key plays down the right sideline). That 3rd down deep in their own end today where Diggs was 1-on-1 on the left sideline and the Bears sent pressure was a criminally missed opportunity by Allen. It seemed so obvious pre-snap (and Diggs certainly agreed after the play). 

 

 

If I had to bet, I’d say the Bills know the magnitude of next week’s game and what they need to do to succeed on O against that D.  And that’s probably why they didn’t do much of it yesterday.  Why put extra looks on tape yesterday for Cincy to study when the talent gap was big enough to win anyway?

[GreggTX]

I think Mixon is their biggest threat. He doesn't get enough credit IMO. That said, our run defense is much better than last year. I also think D Jones has really helped keep our LB's clean.

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

I'm hoping to run the ball. I think possibly Bengals might use similar gameplan possibly on us like they do vs Chiefs. They rush 3, used a qb spy and rest in coverage. Running game is a must. 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Chicago was aided by a vicious cross wind in bitter cold or who knows how many points the Bills would have scored.  Cross winds are worse then the down the field winds we usually see at Rich stadium because they're much harder to predict moment to moment.  I watched the wind push a ball that was ON THE GROUND 11 yards into the end zone.  IMO Allen was arrogant about the wind because he can handle Rich stadiums wind. 

 

Early forecasts have it calm, dry and warm down here in Cincinnati next Monday. 

 

Great observation and this shows the sneaky way in which the O-lines holding penalties can push Allen into taking more chances then he should.  We had 3 O-line holding calls on three different drives.  We overcame one to go on and score a TD but the other two led to an INT & punt.

 

On a related note, what was the reasoning for the placement at the 11 yd line for the punt that had wind aided carry down to the 4? 

 

Looked like Chicago was pinned back and then after a slight break saw the ball was placed at the 11.  They ran a replay and my friend and I couldn't figure it out (we were at a bar and didn't have the audio).  What did they say about that?

 

[BRH]

44 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Looked like Chicago was pinned back and then after a slight break saw the ball was placed at the 11.  They ran a replay and my friend and I couldn't figure it out (we were at a bar and didn't have the audio).  What did they say about that?

 

 

The ref blew the whistle when it was rolling sideways at the 11 or so, because he jumped the gun.  Once he blows the whistle, play's dead.  I think he just wanted to get his ski mask back on.

[Since1981]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

People live in this fantasy world where the defenses are always  giving something.  The Bills are plagued with recievers that can't get separation. There are tons of plays where no one is open. 

Agree. And this is when Josh has QB-run/RB vs pass option for his choice and his tendency seems to be pass—even if a bad choice. He seems to make either a big mistake or take a hit and it jars him into mvp Josh again 

[Since1981]

2 hours ago, BRH said:

Why put extra looks on tape yesterday for Cincy to study when the talent gap was big enough to win anyway?

I don’t buy this idea that they are so good as to keep really good effective  ideas private “off tape” for Cinci. They matched CHI play choice with CHI team/ conditions/ situational. I buy this “no tape” at preseason but not now. 

[BillsFanSD]

Of course they will.  Your best chance of beating the Bills is to play back and try to stop the explosive splash plays.  We seldom lose to teams that load up the box.  I can't even recall the last time somebody tried that.

 

The key thing is that there's a qualitative difference between "1:00 ET against a bad team" Josh and prime time Josh.  Unlike the drought era Bills, this team pretty consistently brings it when they're in front of a national audience.  Not that we win every game of course, but we don't ***** the bed like we used to back in the bad old days.  If Josh and the rest of the team plays their A-game, it doesn't matter what the coverage is.

[Dr.Sack]

The Bengals prefer to bleed the field and play lockdown handsy D in the redzone. The Bengals entire strategy is to be the more efficient team in the redzone. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Dr.Sack

[BuffaninSarasota]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

It almost makes sense, if your Dorsey, to call plays with one read .. check down to the RB in the flat … until you back teams out of this type of defense.  
 

It’s clear we do have that play call, because there’s times Josh drops back and immediately checks down.  They typically pick up 8-15 yards every time. 
 

Will be interesting to see how Cinci defends Josh.  I’ve always thought he would torch the style they deploy against Mahomes, because unlike Mahomes, Allen with simply run through the light box and away from the spy on some designed stuff. 
 

Anyone see how Hendrickson played yesterday?   Reader is really good at DT, Hubbard is decent but banged up, and Hendrickson is an above average pass rusher but playing through a broken wrist right now. 

Hendrickson had 1 tackle, nothing else. Hubbard was inactive.

[Don Otreply]

Allen’s only real fault is he doesn’t take the check down pass often enough when it’s the smart thing to do, outside of that he is damn good. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[Chaos]

Tua ball

[Caesar]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:46 AM, GreggTX said:

I think Mixon is their biggest threat. He doesn't get enough credit IMO. That said, our run defense is much better than last year. I also think D Jones has really helped keep our LB's clean.

 

Mixon is not the Bengals biggest threat.  Perine actually averaged more yards when Mixon was out with an injury.
 

On 12/25/2022 at 3:19 PM, Chaos said:

Tua ball

You think the Bengals play Tua Ball?

[Chaos]

27 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Mixon is not the Bengals biggest threat.  Perine actually averaged more yards when Mixon was out with an injury.
 

You think the Bengals play Tua Ball?

that was a reference to the game on Christmas in a thread which for some reason merged into this

 

[Big Turk]

Bills have been using RPOs with a bunch of motion to clear out the box opening up big running lanes. Ingenious design by Dorsey. I don't really see how teams can combat it without leaving them light in the secondary against Allen throwing deep.