Will we see the same light boxes and heavy coverage looks against Cincy?

[Richard Noggin]

Chicago, aside from some blitzes that Allen couldn't/didn't attack, seemed to employ a lot of light boxes in favor of dropping into heavy coverage looks. And Josh Allen seemed to be impatient often and kept looking downfield when there were gimmes underneath (and then put some POOR mechanics on tape when he did finally check it down). Obviously Dorsey called a pretty solid game against the looks they were getting, with our rushing success as one indicator, but Allen was not on that same page often enough to methodically dissect that defense all game long. 

 

Doesn't Cinci employ similar strategies against Mahomes? I know they tend to rush only 3 and use a spy/delayed blitzer, but otherwise they'd rather lose from a thousand cuts instead of a few big blows. Methinks Allen and Dorsey need to oblige them next week, and run the damned ball and check it down when they're backing off into that shell look. The key, of course, is also making them pay when they gamble and send pressure (like Allen did masterfully against KC for two key plays down the right sideline). That 3rd down deep in their own end today where Diggs was 1-on-1 on the left sideline and the Bears sent pressure was a criminally missed opportunity by Allen. It seemed so obvious pre-snap (and Diggs certainly agreed after the play). 

 

 

[boyst]

This is how you beat Josh. It was well done today and the bears lacked the quality of players to execute it. On offense they didn't have an answer for our defense. 

 

Our defense is better than Cincis and designed to stop their kind of offense. They'll have luck running against us, they'll attack and look for weaknesses in penalty calls and scheme breakdowns. A lot will depend on the refs. Tre will play very physical when allowed.

 

But back to offense - Cinci needs to bring the pressure up the middle. Do this over and over again. Eventually Spencer Brown will be beat on the outside and give up a bad play and possibly contribute to a turnover. 3 guys with two attacking inside the 5s and 1 outside beyond 6. Delay your linebacker to key off our RBs and Josh. This puts it all on Josh.

 

Further, no one talks about it but our runners are not smart players able to mix up the coverage. The once decent pass blocking Singleterry has struggled. The others can't block at all. Our full backs need to be used better, along with our ends.

 

I'll keep thinking on it but for Cinci this isn't a hard matchup for them on defense because their offense has talent. Overrated talent, however... IMO. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

This is how you beat Josh. It was well done today and the bears lacked the quality of players to execute it. On offense they didn't have an answer for our defense. 

 

Our defense is better than Cincis and designed to stop their kind of offense. They'll have luck running against us, they'll attack and look for weaknesses in penalty calls and scheme breakdowns. A lot will depend on the refs. Tre will play very physical when allowed.

 

But back to offense - Cinci needs to bring the pressure up the middle. Do this over and over again. Eventually Spencer Brown will be beat on the outside and give up a bad play and possibly contribute to a turnover. 3 guys with two attacking inside the 5s and 1 outside beyond 6. Delay your linebacker to key off our RBs and Josh. This puts it all on Josh.

 

Further, no one talks about it but our runners are not smart players able to mix up the coverage. The once decent pass blocking Singleterry has struggled. The others can't block at all. Our full backs need to be used better, along with our ends.

 

I'll keep thinking on it but for Cinci this isn't a hard matchup for them on defense because their offense has talent. Overrated talent, however... IMO. 

I find it difficult saying Chicago did a good job when they sold out in pass coverage and got absolutely steamrolled on the ground.  I know they’re not a good team but 250+ rushing yards allowed is straight up embarrassing.  Your gameplan is broken if youre giving up 200+ rushing yards especially in a windy/freezing cold game.  They should’ve been loading up against the run 

 

[Richard Noggin]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

This is how you beat Josh. It was well done today and the bears lacked the quality of players to execute it. On offense they didn't have an answer for our defense. 

 

This is how you beat Josh IF he plays into it, as he did a handful of times today, and used to do too often in the past. 

 

It's the main regression we've seen this season: Allen has these maddening stretches where he gets stuck on what he WANTS to do on a given play, and either forces it into coverage or takes too long to check it down (and does so with sloppy/hurried mechanics and misses the layups). Both of these tendencies have resulted in turnovers. 

 

Against KC this season, on the contrary, Allen (and the offense) patiently took what the defense gave them, which includes attacking downfield the few times they got the single high safety/man/pressure looks. 

 

There were glimpses of this today against an undertalented, but well coached, defense. But those glimpses were interrupted too frequently by impatient and sloppy blunders from #17. 

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, boyst said:

This is how you beat Josh. It was well done today and the bears lacked the quality of players to execute it. On offense they didn't have an answer for our defense. 

 

Our defense is better than Cincis and designed to stop their kind of offense. They'll have luck running against us, they'll attack and look for weaknesses in penalty calls and scheme breakdowns. A lot will depend on the refs. Tre will play very physical when allowed.

 

But back to offense - Cinci needs to bring the pressure up the middle. Do this over and over again. Eventually Spencer Brown will be beat on the outside and give up a bad play and possibly contribute to a turnover. 3 guys with two attacking inside the 5s and 1 outside beyond 6. Delay your linebacker to key off our RBs and Josh. This puts it all on Josh.

 

Further, no one talks about it but our runners are not smart players able to mix up the coverage. The once decent pass blocking Singleterry has struggled. The others can't block at all. Our full backs need to be used better, along with our ends.

 

I'll keep thinking on it but for Cinci this isn't a hard matchup for them on defense because their offense has talent. Overrated talent, however... IMO. 

 

Josh in PrimeTime is not Clark Kent. He is Superman. There wasn't any immediate need to run into a phone booth to change today.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Big Turk

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This is how you beat Josh IF he plays into it, as he did a handful of times today, and used to do too often in the past. 

 

It's the main regression we've seen this season: Allen has these maddening stretches where he gets stuck on what he WANTS to do on a given play, and either forces it into coverage or takes too long to check it down (and does so with sloppy/hurried mechanics and misses the layups). Both of these tendencies have resulted in turnovers. 

 

Against KC this season, on the contrary, Allen (and the offense) patiently took what the defense gave them, which includes attacking downfield the few times they got the single high safety/man/pressure looks. 

 

There were glimpses of this today against an undertalented, but well coached, defense. But those glimpses were interrupted too frequently by impatient and sloppy blunders from #17. 

I think it’s a bit disingenuous to pin it all on ‘josh just wants to hit big plays’. When you’re getting holding calls against your offensive line consistently throughout the game, sustaining long drives becomes very difficult.  When the offensive line pass blocks well, he hits all the throws.  It seems like the big mistakes he’s made this year have pretty much immediately followed a holding call

 

if the pass blocking improves I think a lot of the issues fix themselves…of course that’s a big if though 😂

[Richard Noggin]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think it’s a bit disingenuous to pin it all on ‘josh just wants to hit big plays’. When you’re getting holding calls against your offensive line consistently throughout the game, sustaining long drives becomes very difficult.  When the offensive line pass blocks well, he hits all the throws.  It seems like the big mistakes he’s made this year have pretty much immediately followed a holding call

 

if the pass blocking improves I think a lot of the issues fix themselves…of course that’s a big if though 😂

 

I've seen/heard this tendency discussed before, and it's a really interesting one. So, thank you.

 

However, I think it actually SUPPORTS my observation about Allen trying to force the issue against certain coverages. It DOES, admittedly, provide a reason for WHY Allen might be feeling the pressure to make something happen, but that in no way absolves our QB of the original sin of falling into a defense's coverage trap. That forbidden downfield apple is so alluring, ESPECIALLY when the Bills are behind the sticks. It's human nature for a gunslinger like Josh. And that's when he often gets into trouble. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

19 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I've seen/heard this tendency discussed before, and it's a really interesting one. So, thank you.

 

However, I think it actually SUPPORTS my observation about Allen trying to force the issue against certain coverages. It DOES, admittedly, provide a reason for WHY Allen might be feeling the pressure to make something happen, but that in no way absolves our QB of the original sin of falling into a defense's coverage trap. That forbidden downfield apple is so alluring, ESPECIALLY when the Bills are behind the sticks. It's human nature for a gunslinger like Josh. And that's when he often gets into trouble. 

Oh yea I agree with all that…I was just trying to say that it’s likely going to sort itself out down the stretch.  Last year played out pretty similarly where the offensive line was brutal for a big part of the regular season.  I think josh has been in the worst situation compared to the rest of the elite qbs this season

Edited December 25, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Chaos]

We have a sample size of 1 game of Josh playing in Lake Mighigan high winds in sub-zero wind chills.  He won. Not sure it is a representative statistical game.  Part of me thinks he could have been almost as good as Dak Prescott (not that anyone can every truly reach the heights that are Dak Prescott) yesterday if he had played in relatively warm and windless Dallas. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Chicago, aside from some blitzes that Allen couldn't/didn't attack, seemed to employ a lot of light boxes in favor of dropping into heavy coverage looks. And Josh Allen seemed to be impatient often and kept looking downfield when there were gimmes underneath (and then put some POOR mechanics on tape when he did finally check it down). Obviously Dorsey called a pretty solid game against the looks they were getting, with our rushing success as one indicator, but Allen was not on that same page often enough to methodically dissect that defense all game long. 

 

Doesn't Cinci employ similar strategies against Mahomes? I know they tend to rush only 3 and use a spy/delayed blitzer, but otherwise they'd rather lose from a thousand cuts instead of a few big blows. Methinks Allen and Dorsey need to oblige them next week, and run the damned ball and check it down when they're backing off into that shell look. The key, of course, is also making them pay when they gamble and send pressure (like Allen did masterfully against KC for two key plays down the right sideline). That 3rd down deep in their own end today where Diggs was 1-on-1 on the left sideline and the Bears sent pressure was a criminally missed opportunity by Allen. It seemed so obvious pre-snap (and Diggs certainly agreed after the play). 

 

 

We could ride our run game to the Super Bowl, but it takes patience and ball security from 17. 

58 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We have a sample size of 1 game of Josh playing in Lake Mighigan high winds in sub-zero wind chills.  He won. Not sure it is a representative statistical game.  Part of me thinks he could have been almost as good as Dak Prescott (not that anyone can every truly reach the heights that are Dak Prescott) yesterday if he had played in relatively warm and windless Dallas.

Detroit’s dome

197 yds 1/0

253 tds 2/1 

the dome isn’t the issue. 

[Chaos]

46 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

We could ride our run game to the Super Bowl, but it takes patience and ball security from 17. 

Detroit’s dome

197 yds 1/0

253 tds 2/1 

the dome isn’t the issue. 

If you think Josh is holding back this team, you are simple minded. 

[Since1981]

I think Josh gets into a couple series fuds where he doesn’t take what D gives him. He seems to wake up after a glaring mistake (gets mad) and becomes super hero alive

Edited December 25, 2022 by Since1981

[RunTheBall]

You have to take the bad with the good with a QB like Josh

 

The bad is his arm arrogance and how that impacts his decision making. The good is his arm arrogance and how that impacts his decision making.

 

Josh often is a second late to his check down because he know he can extend plays and he’s always looking deep first. There’s no problem reading deep to shallow but he has to process it quicker and get to his check down or short throw sooner. He’s a smart guy, so I’m having trouble understanding why he doesn’t understand or believe that if he hits those shorter throws earlier in the game and sooner in the play it will open up things downfield so much quicker. I don’t get it.

 

 

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

I think Josh gets into a couple series fuds where he doesn’t take what D gives him. He seems to wake up after a glaring mistake (gets mad) and becomes super hero alive

People live in this fantasy world where the defenses are always  giving something.  The Bills are plagued with recievers that can't get separation. There are tons of plays where no one is open. 

[fergie's ire]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I've seen/heard this tendency discussed before, and it's a really interesting one. So, thank you.

 

However, I think it actually SUPPORTS my observation about Allen trying to force the issue against certain coverages. It DOES, admittedly, provide a reason for WHY Allen might be feeling the pressure to make something happen, but that in no way absolves our QB of the original sin of falling into a defense's coverage trap. That forbidden downfield apple is so alluring, ESPECIALLY when the Bills are behind the sticks. It's human nature for a gunslinger like Josh. And that's when he often gets into trouble. 

Yes, and someone else mentioned the word regression.  That is what is a bit maddening and gets lost.  Last year, at then end of the year when he was great, Josh took what the defense gave him very well, and read the defense pre-snap very well.  It's why they picked apart the Patriots in the second game they played.  Patriots tried to take away everything deep and Josh picked them apart.  There were a lot of throws to Singletary and Know about 5 to 7 yards downfield that they often took for an extra 5 or 6 yards.  So, we were getting a lot of yards just taking the short stuff quickly.  Then when the Patriots switched it up to take that away THEN Josh hit them deep.  I haven't been seeing the same quick reads and decisive throws lately...but hope we will see it when the pressure is on against the Bengals and in the playoffs.

 

[JerseyBills]

Yea it's crazy watching Mahomes constantly take the underneath routes or check it down

 

But hey it's December,  6th straight W, a comfortable W on the road in tough conditions another great team W. 12-3

Just find a way !

[boyst]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Josh in PrimeTime is not Clark Kent. He is Superman. There wasn't any immediate need to run into a phone booth to change today.

I don't disagree but you can't play superman. You must play Clark Kent. No one can play superman.

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

People live in this fantasy world where the defenses are always  giving something.  The Bills are plagued with recievers that can't get separation. There are tons of plays where no one is open. 

Yes and no.

 

There are many times where he could have taken the 5-8 yard check downs, but ultimately goes deep.

 

On the McKenzie INT Diggs was open for an easy 8 yard gain, but it was 2nd and 20 so he tried to force it deep to Mckenzie 

[CincyBillsFan]

9 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I find it difficult saying Chicago did a good job when they sold out in pass coverage and got absolutely steamrolled on the ground.  I know they’re not a good team but 250+ rushing yards allowed is straight up embarrassing.  Your gameplan is broken if youre giving up 200+ rushing yards especially in a windy/freezing cold game.  They should’ve been loading up against the run 

 

Chicago was aided by a vicious cross wind in bitter cold or who knows how many points the Bills would have scored.  Cross winds are worse then the down the field winds we usually see at Rich stadium because they're much harder to predict moment to moment.  I watched the wind push a ball that was ON THE GROUND 11 yards into the end zone.  IMO Allen was arrogant about the wind because he can handle Rich stadiums wind. 

 

Early forecasts have it calm, dry and warm down here in Cincinnati next Monday. 

 

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

On the McKenzie INT Diggs was open for an easy 8 yard gain, but it was 2nd and 20 so he tried to force it deep to Mckenzie 

Great observation and this shows the sneaky way in which the O-lines holding penalties can push Allen into taking more chances then he should.  We had 3 O-line holding calls on three different drives.  We overcame one to go on and score a TD but the other two led to an INT & punt.

 

 

[boyst]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This is how you beat Josh IF he plays into it, as he did a handful of times today, and used to do too often in the past. 

 

It's the main regression we've seen this season: Allen has these maddening stretches where he gets stuck on what he WANTS to do on a given play, and either forces it into coverage or takes too long to check it down (and does so with sloppy/hurried mechanics and misses the layups). Both of these tendencies have resulted in turnovers. 

 

Against KC this season, on the contrary, Allen (and the offense) patiently took what the defense gave them, which includes attacking downfield the few times they got the single high safety/man/pressure looks. 

 

There were glimpses of this today against an undertalented, but well coached, defense. But those glimpses were interrupted too frequently by impatient and sloppy blunders from #17. 

Josh didn't have his best game but the Bears are aggressive against the pass. A team with the division foes of Minnesota and Green Bay have to be built to stop a pass. Josh made mistakes. That trend is going to continue if Sugar Josh keeps showing up.

 

10 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I find it difficult saying Chicago did a good job when they sold out in pass coverage and got absolutely steamrolled on the ground.  I know they’re not a good team but 250+ rushing yards allowed is straight up embarrassing.  Your gameplan is broken if youre giving up 200+ rushing yards especially in a windy/freezing cold game.  They should’ve been loading up against the run 

 

Chicago has poor talent. They had to chose die by the sword or by the knife. They had a 3rd rate DB unit who is young. They played against Allen well considering these statements. Several times their DBs made good plays, including a nice aware play against Knox which took him out of the game for a minute.

 

Their defense has given up the most yards in the league to the rush, and the least to the pass. Why not take what is allowed? They always sell out the run to stop the pass.