Is the QB position a roadblock to expansion?

[US Egg]

47 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Do they really need growth though? They already make billions every year. The only thing that will really ever kill the NFL is if they get cancelled to two hand touch or something ridiculous like that because of head injuries. The day they put flags on the qb is prolly the day I quit watching.

If government wants to further their control of concussion for the betterment of those who willingly risk them to play sports, football particularly, would be in their cross hairs more so than other sports.

 

But the NFL becoming the NFFL? Never.

Edited December 25, 2022 by I am the egg man

[RiotAct]

4 hours ago, Andy1 said:

I’m not in favor of expansion. In addition to the lack of QBs, there is a lack of offensive line talent. 

Plus, 32 teams in the league (8 divisions x 4 teams) is pretty much a perfect number.

[Arkady Renko]

25 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Plus, 32 teams in the league (8 divisions x 4 teams) is pretty much a perfect number.

I think the divisions are too small actually. Every other year we have some terrible division like the NFC South getting a terrible team a home playoff game. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

There are more capable quarterbacks now than ever imo.  

 

As mentioned, I think you can really run into trouble on the o-lines.  You would be more likely to see some putrid o-lines in the league which would ruin that team(s).

 

I agree olines would be a bigger issue than QBs. Not to say lack of true starting calibre QBs wouldn't be an issue...  it would. But offensive lines across the league are paper thin depth wise. It's an area Brandon Beane has always been good in tbf to him. He isn't great at building top end talent on the line but he is good at having lots of serviceable vets who can step in and play. Quess, GVR and Ike are all good backups. But if a starting line in the NFL had to rely on those 3 guys for the season? That would not be good.

[entropyrules]

11 hours ago, Andy1 said:

I’m not in favor of expansion. In addition to the lack of QBs, there is a lack of offensive line talent. 

although that may take care of the lack of franchise QBs by getting them killed some time during the season

[billsfan714]

I know Derek Carr is the poster child for just because you play QB does not mean you deserve 40 million a year.   See Kyler Murray also.   Anyone think Bronco fans have a lot of hope in the next 5 years when they will  be saddled with Russell Wilson's contract.

[Buffalo03]

You would need 8 new teams at once to make it work. That's too many at once. I don't see it

[Shaw66]

If the NFL can make more money expanding, they will expand.  It's all about the benjamins, as they say.

 

There aren't enough franchise QBs now, and the league is fine.   Having a few more teams without franchise QBs won't matter.  

[RyanC883]

the play will degrade, but it will make money so it will happen 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

You would need 8 new teams at once to make it work. That's too many at once. I don't see it

The schedule is irrelevant to the league.  They will create a schedule with 33 teams, 34, teams, however many teams they want.  MLB and NBA have always made do, regardless of the number of teams, and the NFL did, too, every time it expanded.   32 is perfect, of course, because everything is nicely balanced, but the NFL won't care about that.   If they can make money with 33, they'll make up a schedule.  

[GreggTX]

Every team doesn't have to have a great QB for the league to be successful. It wasn't long ago when there were only 6 or so great QB's and the NFL didn't fold. Far and away the biggest obstacle to expansion is the economy, not talent.

 

2 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

I know Derek Carr is the poster child for just because you play QB does not mean you deserve 40 million a year. See Kyler Murray also. Anyone think Bronco fans have a lot of hope in the next 5 years when they will be saddled with Russell Wilson's contract.

---

I'm not convinced that Wilson is the problem. Let's see what happens next season after Dino Hackett gets replaced with a real NFL caliber HC.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by GreggTX

[Matt_In_NH]

The qb talent has rise sharply the past 10 years.  You now even have franchise qbs moving around the league at one time that was unthinkable. 

[billsfan89]

I think there are more viable QB’s now than 20 years ago for sure. I think 20 years ago a player like Jared Goff would be a low end to 10 QB whereas now he is more like the 16th to 18th best QB in the NFL. 
 

I think the issue with expansion is that the NFL owners don’t want to split these big TV deals 34+ ways as the expansion fee while north of 6 billion is nice it would easily be eaten away at over time as you have to split your revenue more.

 

I think what’s holding up expansion is the owners wanting expansion to occur internationally and not domestically. There really isn’t a domestic market that would really entice expansion now that LA and Vegas have teams. 
 

Expanding to Mexico City might be hard to do as I am not sure if the NFL feels like the city can sustain interest in a team full time (although at some point in the next 20 years I would bet they expand to Mexico City.)

 

Then expanding to London and other areas of Europe would be fiscally viable but would the logistics would be insane. 
 

TLDR: Expansion is being held off likely because of the league wants to expand internationally and not because of QB play.

[boater]

I agree with OP... there aren't enough quality QBs to feed expansion. The college system just doesn't fill the demand. It barely does so with 32 teams.

 

If the NFL throws caution to the wind and expands anyways, it will become a stratified league where you have about 5 elite, 10 serviceable, and the rest suck QBs. Not good for entertainment.

 

I think a similar situation exists with OL.

[Billsatlastin2018]

Tis, if he’s paid > 13% of the Payroll!

 

NO QB has ever won a SB in the salary cap era.

 

This year’s Looooosers?

 

mahomes

rodgers

captain kirk

cryin tannehill!

[Saxum]

21 hours ago, The Red King said:

I see the occasional talk about adding more teams to the NFL.  In some ways it could help.  Diluting talent evens the playing field, and more teams mean that more players are drafted ahead of the top teams.  But there is one roadblock to this, the QB position.  A high-caliber QB is at this point in the NFL a make it or break it position.  You have one, or you don't.  Adding more teams will not add more star QBs to the pool, and with the rest of the positional talent being thinned down across additional teams league-wide it could serve to simply increase the gap between the top and mid-tier teams.

 

As a result, as things currently stand I don't think the NFL can expand in any capacity without harming the product.  A franchise QB is all but required, and there are not enough of them out there for the 32 teams we currently have.  Thoughts?

 

I think Offense Line talent is more of a factor.  Harder to find linemen who can pass block with college schemes.

[Buffalo03]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The schedule is irrelevant to the league.  They will create a schedule with 33 teams, 34, teams, however many teams they want.  MLB and NBA have always made do, regardless of the number of teams, and the NFL did, too, every time it expanded.   32 is perfect, of course, because everything is nicely balanced, but the NFL won't care about that.   If they can make money with 33, they'll make up a schedule.  

I get that, but for division purposes, are they gonna want one division in football to have one or two extra teams

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I get that, but for division purposes, are they gonna want one division in football to have one or two extra teams

They won't care.   If it's the best choice to optimize profits, they'll have a 33-team league.   34.   Whatever it takes, they'll schedule around the problem.  It's been done before. 

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think there are more viable QB’s now than 20 years ago for sure. I think 20 years ago a player like Jared Goff would be a low end to 10 QB whereas now he is more like the 16th to 18th best QB in the NFL. 
 

I think the issue with expansion is that the NFL owners don’t want to split these big TV deals 34+ ways as the expansion fee while north of 6 billion is nice it would easily be eaten away at over time as you have to split your revenue more.

 

I think what’s holding up expansion is the owners wanting expansion to occur internationally and not domestically. There really isn’t a domestic market that would really entice expansion now that LA and Vegas have teams. 
 

Expanding to Mexico City might be hard to do as I am not sure if the NFL feels like the city can sustain interest in a team full time (although at some point in the next 20 years I would bet they expand to Mexico City.)

 

Then expanding to London and other areas of Europe would be fiscally viable but would the logistics would be insane. 
 

TLDR: Expansion is being held off likely because of the league wants to expand internationally and not because of QB play.

 

I agree. 

 

In order to expand, the NFL has to identify metros that are large enough to support a franchise,  at least one viable would be owner/ownership group willing to ante up the initial cost of joining the NFL, and a cooperative state/local government willing to contribute to building an NFL stadium.   IMO, US metros that meet all three of these conditions have been pretty much maximized.  I can think of only three large metros currently without teams that can meet the population criteria:  Saint Louis, San Antonio, and San Diego.   

 

That leaves foreign cities, which is why there's the emphasis on games outside of the US.    I think that the NFL is working on cultivating foreign fandom in anticipation of expansion into Mexico (maybe with the 3 US cities I mentioned above) plus into Europe in the decade or two.