2023 Draft - Offensive Line discussion

[Augie]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Is this a hobby of yours, or an actual job? 

 

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a hobby.

 

But a very serious hobby, and we are thankful for that. It’s not like my tennis or gardening, for sure. 

 

Thanks for your efforts and input here. 

 

 

.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Augie

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Problem is Beane doesn't have a great track record with either of those positions, especially the former.

 

 

 

 

Doesn’t mean he should stop trying, just look at the D line, draft after draft after draft, finally we got some good ones, 

[AuntieEm]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Pretty much every IOL taken in the first two rounds of the last two drafts would be starting for us right now. Beane just needs to pull the trigger.

 

  Easy to say sure the young kid has to be better than what we got and not like any draftees ever show up as unmotivated not if they are picked in 1st round (Maybin, Mike Williams, McCargo) ring any bells?  Well sure wouldn't be at oshei ringing the beat cancer bells.  All those guys were cancers far as helping the Bills improve.  

 

   Yes draft ol but gotta be well vetted by the scouts and have them dig deep.  

 

   I'd like some good fa ol if Beane can figure out how to fit them into our cap.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by AuntieEm

[BearNorth]

6 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Where Buffalo is going to be picking I’ll be focusing on interior OL and WR.  Usually end of the 1st round is a bad area for tackles 

We have two safeties who are on the wrong side of 30. 

 

One coming back from a potentially career-ending injury, the other a regular on the injury list, probably need to draft a safety in Round 2 or Round 3, not sure Hamlin is the long term answer. 

 

Agree that we need a WR2 esp with Gabe Davis in the last year of his team friendly contract. 

 

We are basically in cap purgatory with Josh's contract increase kicking in. 

 

We also have Poyer, Edmunds, [and his backups, Dodson & Klein], Motor, and starting corners Jackson and Johnson all in contract years,

so a MLB, and CB are probably priorities as well, depending on who leaves on March 15th.

 

SPOTRAC is showing Edmunds valued at $15MM, which isn't a lot above his current 1st round 5th year cap hit of $12.7MM, but someone will overpay.

[Seoulofstone]

I feel like I need to know more about the second and third round guys and that comes via the senior bowl. 
 

 O’Cyrus Torrance and Vorhees are big heavy dudes-maulers but do they fit the high RAS score model of our Oline? Are they good value there? 
 

 We all want to improve the line but Josh can thrive behind a mediocre line. Continuity and improved (drafted) depth at guard/center is enough for me.

 

  I don’t think we can assume that Saffold will be gone simply because we want it. Likewise we can’t assume that Dawkins would be ok being moved inside when he’s been fine at tackle. Would he then be expected to take a pay cut? You want a rookie manning the blindside when the Bills are right in their winning window? What if the rookie struggles do you reinstate him and demand a position change of your draft pick? I hate asking OL to shuffle positions.

  Im very interested to read everyone’s opinions about options but part of me hopes they let the draft come to them this year possibly even trading back. 

 

[Big Blitz]

I thought our oline (outside the few series right after Morse left) was very good vs Miami and has been trending good since Detroit.  
 

More pulling.  Using Brown and Dawkins on counters - get them big bodies on people.  They saw Philips as a liability vs the run and attacked him.  Wilkins was neutralized by and large.  And “Nick” Chubb was useless.  

 

No Morse this week will make this a potential bump in the road but I hope it’s starting to come together.  

Edited December 24, 2022 by Big Blitz

[Ethan in Cleveland]

They need interior OL and WR not OT. They will give Brown another year and Dawkins is fine at LT. 

[Comebackkid]

8 hours ago, RiotAct said:

all O-Line and WR.  Or else run Beane out of town.

RB or Die!

 

 

j/k

[Lost]

So considering a weak OL draft class do we just take best player available between WR and OL in 1st RD? 

[nosejob]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

You almost had me at skip right on past. But I agree with moving Dion inside. we need inside help as well, if not more a center. Morse, I don't think is really gonna last much longer. I thought Brown would expand on attitude, but he sure as Hell gave me one several times when he looked like he just woke up from a nap. No bong on game day dude. I posted elsewhere about the top 20 Oline guys in the senior bowl with NFL comparisons on NFL.com by Chad Rueter. Picking late I'm guessing Voorhees or Torrence, but nobody knows what McBeane will do with free agents.....which makes it anyone's guess, so skip right on past.

Edited December 24, 2022 by nosejob

[Ya Digg?]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

We have two safeties who are on the wrong side of 30. 

 

One coming back from a potentially career-ending injury, the other a regular on the injury list, probably need to draft a safety in Round 2 or Round 3, not sure Hamlin is the long term answer. 

 

Agree that we need a WR2 esp with Gabe Davis in the last year of his team friendly contract. 

 

We are basically in cap purgatory with Josh's contract increase kicking in. 

 

We also have Poyer, Edmunds, [and his backups, Dodson & Klein], Motor, and starting corners Jackson and Johnson all in contract years,

so a MLB, and CB are probably priorities as well, depending on who leaves on March 15th.

 

SPOTRAC is showing Edmunds valued at $15MM, which isn't a lot above his current 1st round 5th year cap hit of $12.7MM, but someone will overpay.

Josh’s contract is fine, the cap is going up big time over the next couple of years, especially now with the new Sunday ticket deal. The Bills aren’t in cap trouble, they have contracts they can easily restructure. If there are guys out there they want to sign from other teams or re-sign their own, they can without much of an issue 

[Governor]

2 hours ago, Lost said:

So considering a weak OL draft class do we just take best player available between WR and OL in 1st RD? 

Beane doesn’t draft BPA. He drafts what he thinks is the BPA at specific positions of immediate need.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Governor

[Mark Vader]

11 hours ago, Motorin' said:

I like the Schmitz too! And Vorhees. Have to see how they both run. 

 

There's a couple Michigan guys that might be solid as well. 

C Olusegun Oluwatimi

 

G Zak Zinter

 

I've read that Brandon Beane has personally attended 2 or 3 Michigan games.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Mark Vader

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

They need interior OL and WR not OT. They will give Brown another year and Dawkins is fine at LT. 

 

Dawkins is fine at LT, but if they draft a starting caliber LT and Dawkins pushes inside it still solves the problem. It also might be a better position for Dawkins to play as he gets older. It works out either way because they don't have to pigeonhole themselves to an o-lineman that plays at a certain spot. Any capable o-lineman will upgrade the line somewhere.

[Process]

Did Dawkins play guard in college or are we just assuming he can make the transition?

[In Summary]

How would Dawkins look next to a better guard?  I just don't see us messing with a guy that's not a problem.  

 

Agree on the absolute need to address the OL.  I can see the 1st round going to a WR with the OL after that. 1st round reserved for certain positions other than guard (QB, WR, Rush End, Corner).  That puts a WR on a rookie contract that will expire when Diggs is probably done. 

 

Appreciate your research into the draft class.

 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, nosejob said:

You almost had me at skip right on past. But I agree with moving Dion inside. we need inside help as well, if not more a center. Morse, I don't think is really gonna last much longer. I thought Brown would expand on attitude, but he sure as Hell gave me one several times when he looked like he just woke up from a nap. No bong on game day dude. I posted elsewhere about the top 20 Oline guys in the senior bowl with NFL comparisons on NFL.com by Chad Rueter. Picking late I'm guessing Voorhees or Torrence, but nobody knows what McBeane will do with free agents.....which makes it anyone's guess, so skip right on past.

 

Can you direct me to that? Cheers.

[NewEra]

14 hours ago, BearNorth said:

We have two safeties who are on the wrong side of 30. 

 

One coming back from a potentially career-ending injury, the other a regular on the injury list, probably need to draft a safety in Round 2 or Round 3, not sure Hamlin is the long term answer. 

 

Agree that we need a WR2 esp with Gabe Davis in the last year of his team friendly contract. 

 

We are basically in cap purgatory with Josh's contract increase kicking in. 

 

We also have Poyer, Edmunds, [and his backups, Dodson & Klein], Motor, and starting corners Jackson and Johnson all in contract years,

so a MLB, and CB are probably priorities as well, depending on who leaves on March 15th.

 

SPOTRAC is showing Edmunds valued at $15MM, which isn't a lot above his current 1st round 5th year cap hit of $12.7MM, but someone will overpay.

I agree with all of this.  Luckily, one small bit of info is incorrect.  Taron Johnson isn’t a FA-  he has 2 years left.  Unless you were talking about Jaquan Johnson, but he’s not a starting corner.  And Dane is a restricted FA.  

 

Random thought:

 

I really wish Siran Neal could play safety. Dude is an incredible athlete.  Just can’t get the mental part down for S or CB.  That’s disappointing.  

 

With Tre, Elam and Johnson as our likely CB starters the next couple years, maybe we move Benford to S if we have to lose Poyer or Hyde?  I could see us keeping Dane another year unless someone overpays.  I’m sure we’ll draft another corner or 2 in ever draft too.

Edited December 24, 2022 by NewEra

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

13 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Where Buffalo is going to be picking I’ll be focusing on interior OL and WR.  Usually end of the 1st round is a bad area for tackles 

Gabe has somewhat underperformed this year (so far) but the book still isn’t closed on him. To his credit, he is having a career year and has made some key 3rd down receptions. The drops have been very disappointing though. He’s a great role player as a deep/red zone threat, but I don’t think he’s a high quality #2. The Bills need a jolt of athleticism to the WR corp and you usually can’t get that outside of the 1st round so I hope that’s where they go. I won’t complain if they go OG either, but this offense needs some juice. As far as specific players, I gotta do my research. 

[Freddie's Dead]

Need better names.  No Key and Peele All-Stars in there.