2023 Draft - Offensive Line discussion

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Herb Nightly said:

I am OK with interior OLine in the top 2 picks; what with Saffold's age and Morse's concussions.  Have to consider the safety situation, Edmunds and Singletary among upcoming free agents,etc.

I'm not convinced Dawkins should to LG to accommodate a LT,it means TWO changes to the line. You are assuming Saffold will be gone?

 

I bloody hope so!!

[HappyDays]

I know as fans we look at the team's biggest needs when evaluating the draft class but you can't realistically expect a rookie to fill a hole for a whole year. If if works out that way, great, but really you're drafting players to become franchise cornerstones in year 2 or 3, especially when you're talking about low 1st round when all the blue chip players are long gone. So really our best opportunity for the OL to get better next year is for Spencer Brown and/or Tommy Doyle to improve, and find a veteran G to replace Saffold in FA.

 

Generally I don't like taking any OL other than LT in the 1st round but I will say if we're drafting one in the 30-32 range I could live with it. We're kind of in no man's land as far as our team needs and draft value. In recent years the best place to find an OT and a WR outside of the top 10 has been in the first half of the 2nd round. Our two recent picks at those positions at that spot were Zay Jones and Cody Ford who obviously were both huge busts for us. So now we're stuck never having picks in that range again unless we trade down.

[FilthyBeast]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

all O-Line and WR.  Or else run Beane out of town.

 

Problem is Beane doesn't have a great track record with either of those positions, especially the former.

 

 

 

 

[mushypeaches]

I'm all in with drafting an OL at #32

 

The guy could be some kind of Frankenstein combination of Mike Williams, Jerry Crafts, Cody Ford, Cyrus Kouandjio, Ed Wang, and a bunch of other scrubs that I can't remember, and I'll still be basking in the Super Bowl afterglow

[Norcalbillsfan]

I dont think replacing spencer brown is going to be a priority for beane. The coaches like him, and he's had barely any practice at the position. He's possibly the most athletic human on the football field for his height and weight. Upside is insane with brown, I doubt the bills are ready to move on. I think the real question is what Morse wants to do with his career after this concussion and saffold obviously is past his prime. Which could actually be great for the bills, you could very well get the best center in the draft at the end of the first.

[1st&ten]

That's my choice, lineman---tackle, guard, center I don't care, just get some guys to protect Josh & improve our running game. We can fill in other holes later in the draft & thru free agency.

 

[Warcodered]

Center is interesting we do need to keep an eye on having a replacement plan for Morse especially with another accrued concussion, don't know how long he's going to keep playing.

 

Also TE 2 continues to be a hole, Morris seems like at least a TE3 though maybe he has more to show.

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Where Buffalo is going to be picking I’ll be focusing on interior OL and WR.  Usually end of the 1st round is a bad area for tackles 

I think guard is a better target in round 1, likely have to try to get a back/future replacement for Mitch in round 4ish range too. Probably also have to bring in some better depth players and a vet RT to compete with Brown.

 

I think Brown could develop into a solid RT but his health could be preventing him from developing. This team needs to bring in some competition for him. 
 

Ideally next year the line would look like 

 

Dawkins-Bates-Mitch-Rookie-Brown/Vet RT

 

The team then kicks the loser of the RT battle to the bench has a draft pick backing up Mitch and brings in a vet or two to round out the bench.

[wppete]

OT OG or C

[NewEra]

Just don’t reach-  Sounds like WR round one to me. 

[BillsVet]

I'm not the first to say this here...but the draft is strategic and not tactical in nature.  By that I mean it's not for addressing immediate issues like Buffalo has at OT, G, and WR.  Because as soon as that happens, you're drafting more for need than you'll admit...which is how you wind up with the 2nd rounders this team took in 2019-2021 (Ford, Epenesa, Basham).      

 

If the higher level (vision for how this team plays offensively) isn't addressed first, the downstream decisions aren't going to work.  Prime example is, the Bills decided during the '22 off-season that getting run-specific OLinemen like Saffold and taking another RB highly was the right offensive strategy...but it wasn't.  Their OL is still not good and Josh is still forced to carry the ball ~10 times per.    

 

It's pretty concerning to me that the same personnel group and HC decided that their UFAs and draft picks would make the offense better are faced with the same problem again in 2023.  Some people at OBD need to take a long look in the mirror and adjust their vision for what this team will be in the coming years not only on offense but both sides of the ball. 

[CSBill]

Nice work @GunnerBill, thanks. I have zero knowledge of the top college prospects, but I do agree that in some form or another, we need some upgrades on the online. I am a big believer in just getting the five best people out there. I do understand that some people are better suited for a particular oline position, but I also believe if the guy is good, he will have position flexibility. If we can get a top LT prospect, I'm all for moving Dion to LG, or RT. Or, just a top interior lineman (Center?) would help as well.

 

Concerning our current people, for next year:

• Dawkins - Is a solid LT, but could also move inside if a top LT prospect was drafted.
• Saffold - This position needs to be upgraded. I would not mind them trying Quessenbery there now--he played well at RG this past game.
• Morse - I hope I'm wrong, but he may be done.
• Bates - Is not spectacular, but his great value is he can, and has, played every oline position, and usually pretty well. His intelligence is his strength. I suspect he'll be our starting center next season. If a Center is drafted, we are fine with him at RG.
• Brown - I want him to be good, but he is inconsistent at best. I think Gunner is right, he needs a real challenge at RT. Hopefully he improves, but another year of his inconsistency will not be acceptable. He either improves or gets replaced.

 

While there are other needs, if the Bills can build an elite line, no matter what else is needed, with our QB we would be set for a long time. I would be very happy drafting at least 3 new o-lineman, and adding a good FA or two, next year.

 

And one person to keep an eye on, I thought Tommy Doyle was coming along nicely for the Bills. Hopefully he comes back strong. He could be a serious tackle candidate next year--unfortunately, hope if a poor strategy.

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by CSBill

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Our two recent picks at those positions at that spot were Zay Jones and Cody Ford

Zay turned out to be a player. Ford, not so much. Hopefully the Bills 1st 2 picks end up being playmakers. Rather it's a WR, RB, TE. Josh needs help besides Diggs. He's proven he can work behind an average offensive line. God help us if something happens to Diggs

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects.

Is this a hobby of yours, or an actual job? 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Is this a hobby of yours, or an actual job? 

 

It's a hobby.

[John from Riverside]

I would be curious of your evaluation of centers given mors latest concussion we could get a center and play them at guard for a year

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

I dont think replacing spencer brown is going to be a priority for beane. The coaches like him

It took them 4 years to realize Cody Ford was a bust. Beane doesn't give up on his draft picks easily

[whorlnut]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

WR in 1 and OL in 2. 

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, RiotAct said:

all O-Line and WR.  Or else run Beane out of town.

So you’re gonna read Beane the riot act aye…, 

[Milanos Milano]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Pretty much every IOL taken in the first two rounds of the last two drafts would be starting for us right now. Beane just needs to pull the trigger.

Well he did draft Cody Ford. Needs to do better on the front.