2023 Draft - Offensive Line discussion

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Dawkins is fine at LT, but if they draft a starting caliber LT and Dawkins pushes inside it still solves the problem. It also might be a better position for Dawkins to play as he gets older. It works out either way because they don't have to pigeonhole themselves to an o-lineman that plays at a certain spot. Any capable o-lineman will upgrade the line somewhere.

 

This. And I think it is hard to make a case for 1st round value at other spots on the line. First round OL should normally be left tackles. 

[GreggTX]

The drop off in performance by Saffold has been remarkable. I just wonder if he's 100% healthy. That rib injury might be lingering still. I also think Brown must earn his starting spot or become the swing T. Quessenberry can play G or T so I'd like to see him stay.

I would also like to see us land a couple OL on day 3 and hope we find another Wyatt Teller.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by GreggTX

[LyndonvilleBill]

I think FA will determine a lot as well as Morse. Still think they will bring back Saffold, Boetteger and probably Q for one more year. My guess would be WR in rd1. But drafting a couple IOL. Just starting to read into some OL myself and Joe Tippman (C - Wisconsin) maybe as a day 2 pick seems interesting.🤔

 

Joe Tippman- TDN comp, Mitch Morse

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/joe-tippmann-b6994694-fab6-4281-9688-d006948d0aef/

[TheBeaneBandit]

22 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I think FA will determine a lot as well as Morse. Still think they will bring back Saffold, Boetteger and probably Q for one more year. My guess would be WR in rd1. But drafting a couple IOL. Just starting to read into some OL myself and Joe Tippman (C - Wisconsin) maybe as a day 2 pick seems interesting.🤔

 

Joe Tippman- TDN comp, Mitch Morse

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/joe-tippmann-b6994694-fab6-4281-9688-d006948d0aef/

I could absolutely see the 1st 3 picks go WR, OL, OL and I would love that.

[hemma]

Brown’s back surgery/ankle injuries + losing Doyle for the year sure took a lot of value out of the OL selections for that draft year.

Have to hope they will both bounce back next year, but Beane may need to give up some draft capital and trade to solidify one of RT/RG/LG.

 

[LyndonvilleBill]

46 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I could absolutely see the 1st 3 picks go WR, OL, OL and I would love that.

Me too. Haven't gotten deap into WR yet either. But I am liking what I have read so far on Rashee Rice.

 

1st, Rice

2nd Voorhees 

3rd Tippman 

One can dream, Right.😉😁

[BobbyC81]

14 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well he did draft Cody Ford. Needs to do better on the front. 

Not only that, but he got too excited about him and traded up to get him.  Ugh.

[BearNorth]

There's a guy named Cooper Beebe, OG, Kansas State that's being mocked around where we pick at 63.  Like the last name.

 

Draft sites have him moving possibly to C in the pros.

 

BTW Bills only have 6 Draft Choices in 2023, so UDFA scouting is going to have to have some wins.

 

 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

There's a few guys I like at #31:

 

O'Cyrus Torrence-G Florida

Josh Downs-WR North Carolina

Jammie Robinson-S Florida State

John Michael Schmitz-C Minnesota

Cody Mauch-G North Dakota State

 

5 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I could absolutely see the 1st 3 picks go WR, OL, OL and I would love that.

 

I'd be so happy with the following

 

Josh Downs-WR North Carolina

Cody Mauch-G North Dakota State

Joe Tippman-C Wisconsin

 

If we can get Dalton Risner or a Kaleb McGary as a FA we suddenly have a good OL and depth.

Edited December 24, 2022 by FeelingOnYouboty

[Solomon Grundy]

Is Johnny Wilson from FSU draft eligible? Mike Evans 2.0

[Buffalo Junction]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. And I think it is hard to make a case for 1st round value at other spots on the line. First round OL should normally be left tackles. 

I think there can be tremendous value in late first round centers. It’s certainly not a glamorous pick, but it’s arguably the most important Oline position outside of LT as they set protections, handle the ball in critical situations, and influence the performance of every other offensive lineman and the QB. Having a center who can not only recognize delayed blitzes and stunts, but has the athleticism to make a block against those guys is a huge advantage casual fans don’t see. This Bills team aside, it’s generally a lot easier to find and develop mid to late round guards and RTs than centers. The best centers are generally grabbed in the first two rounds and have a rather low bust rate when compared to other positions. 

[djp14150]

On 12/23/2022 at 12:27 PM, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

drafts usually work thst way…

 

part 1 what happens in free agency .  Who do you sign/ lose

part 2 draft— this is driven heavily by part 1.  
 

another underlying factor is the cap situation. If the Bills win it all this year, they could take a step back next year and clean up cap space by letting some players walk and go with youth/ cheaper players.  This could change draft strategy.

 

[BuffBillsForLife]

The top 3 bills picks need to be WR+C/G+C/G

[GunnerBill]

I've re-named this thread to be consistent with the similar thread started by @NewEra on wide receivers. I suspect these two position groups are going to get a LOT of attention from Bills fans once we hit full draft season, so might make sense for the Mods to keep these two threads running as a repository for thoughts as the process moves along.  

[Thurman#1]

On 12/24/2022 at 5:22 AM, HappyDays said:

I know as fans we look at the team's biggest needs when evaluating the draft class but you can't realistically expect a rookie to fill a hole for a whole year. If if works out that way, great, but really you're drafting players to become franchise cornerstones in year 2 or 3, especially when you're talking about low 1st round when all the blue chip players are long gone. So really our best opportunity for the OL to get better next year is for Spencer Brown and/or Tommy Doyle to improve, and find a veteran G to replace Saffold in FA.

 

Generally I don't like taking any OL other than LT in the 1st round but I will say if we're drafting one in the 30-32 range I could live with it. We're kind of in no man's land as far as our team needs and draft value. In recent years the best place to find an OT and a WR outside of the top 10 has been in the first half of the 2nd round. Our two recent picks at those positions at that spot were Zay Jones and Cody Ford who obviously were both huge busts for us. So now we're stuck never having picks in that range again unless we trade down.

 

 

I spent the entire offseason trying to psychically influence Beane towards strong consideration of Zion Johnson or Kenyon Green in the first. They were both gone, but there were guys I liked later, like Parham and Lecitus Smith. Finally it was nobody till Tenuta.

 

The more I see of Beane the more it looks to me like maybe he figures OL is the area where he thinks a wildly mobile QB can slow the pass rush enough that he just doesn't want to spend high picks there. With Belichick it tended to be WRs and CBs and OLs, he'd occasionally grab one high, but not nearly as often as I'd expect. He'd tend to use his higher picks on DLs, TEs, LBs, etc. Belichick had Scarnecchia to coach up the OL for him, and this Bills OL seems to play better as a group, particularly late in the season, than you'd maybe expect from looking at the individuals. 

 

Is he going to make a further pattern of filling in with mid-level FAs and mid-level picks at the OL? I'm not sure I like that idea, as Allen is our one irreplaceable necessity going forward. I'd like to see them address OL more seriously. 

 

But you can't really use your biggest resources everywhere. There aren't enough to go around.

[Thurman#1]

On 12/24/2022 at 5:05 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

This. And I think it is hard to make a case for 1st round value at other spots on the line. First round OL should normally be left tackles. 

 

 

First round early. OGs / Cs in the first 15 or even 20 are relative rarities. After that they're as common as OTs.

 

Most first-round OTs are gone by the time we draft these days. At pick #20 or afterwards, only five OTs have gone in the past five years. Five OTs and five INT OLs.

 

Late in the round, Cs / Gs are just as common.

 

3 OGs in the first last year, and a C besides. One INT OL the year before. One the year before that, two in 2019 and three the year before that. I think only Quenton Nelson in the top ten, most (all?) of the rest starting at #14.

 

Yes, certainly most OLs that go in the first should be tackles, and most of those left tackles. But there's a reason a year hasn't gone by without an INT OL being taken in the first. And those OLs tend to be good picks as well.

 

IMO we're not going to be picking top 20 for the next several years. Might as well start thinking the way people drafting where we're going to be drafting should.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Magox]

From my view Dion has had a good year and definitely is well above average at his position.  I would be looking at the interior spots along with WR for this next upcoming year as my priorities.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

First round early. OGs / Cs in the first 15 or even 20 are relative rarities. After that they're as common as OTs.

 

Most first-round OTs are gone by the time we draft these days. At pick #20 or afterwards, only five OTs have gone in the past five years. Five OTs and five INT OLs.

 

Late in the round, Cs / Gs are just as common.

 

3 OGs in the first last year, and a C besides. One INT OL the year before. One the year before that, two in 2019 and three the year before that. I think only Quenton Nelson in the top ten, most (all?) of the rest starting at #14.

 

Yes, certainly most OLs that go in the first should be tackles, and most of those left tackles. But there's a reason a year hasn't gone by without an INT OL being taken in the first. And those OLs tend to be good picks as well.

 

IMO we're not going to be picking top 20 for the next several years. Might as well start thinking the way people drafting where we're going to be drafting should.

 

 

 

Just because others do doesn't make it good strategy. There are always exceptions - I'd have been willing to draft AVT late 1st had he been there (and Groot been gone) in 2021 and Nelson was the most obvious first rounder ever. But generally you have to use your first round picks for the positions that cost the big $$s in FA. KC went out and paid for an elite guard in FA in Thuney. $16m AAV. The same year the Giants gave Kenny Golladay, by no means an elite receiver, $18m AAV. A year later Christian Kirk got $18.5m AAV from the Jags. 

 

Taking an interior OL at the end of round 1 isn't bad in and of itself. It is the opportunity cost. If that IOL at the end of round 1 is instead of a pass rusher, a receiver, a corner or a tackle it will cost you more to buy the other guy on the open market. There are always exceptions but generally you should use 1st round picks on stocking cheap talent at premium spots. 

[machine gun kelly]

On 12/23/2022 at 12:27 PM, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

Talk to you in February GB.

[Buddo]

The need for a better interior O-Line is becoming increasingly pressing, imho.

 

Hard to say how much longer Morse will want to play.

 

While I'm not uncomfortable with the notion of sliding Bates over to Center, it still means we need another Guard.

 

We also need another good compliment to our WR corps.

 

'Good', as opposed to 'great' WRs can be found all over the draft these days, simply because of the way the college game has gone, and all of the camps etc. these kids can go to to learn about the position.

 

If there's a G/C at the back end of the 1st where we will be picking, and a WR similarly rated, I'm all for taking the G/C, as I feel that you can find another WR easier than a good G/C, that isn't going to need half of his 1st contract to develop.

 

Please note, I'm not talking about reaching for either position, and if there's a guy who is clearly higher rated at another position, I wouldn't hesitate to take them (QB excepted).