2023 Draft - Offensive Line discussion

[GunnerBill]

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Rubes]

If you had started with "Just hear me out..." I would've totally read the whole thing.

 

 

Edit: Just kidding, I read the whole thing. Not sure I agree with drafting the next LT, but nice write up.

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Rubes

[Motorin']

I like the Schmitz too! And Vorhees. Have to see how they both run. 

 

There's a couple Michigan guys that might be solid as well. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Motorin'

[SoCal Deek]

I mentioned this a couple of days ago. CBS Sports had the Bills taking an OL pick from Florida. Seemed like he was projected as an inside lineman, not a tackle. I’m sure there are posters on here who know something about him. 

[GolfandBills]

Where Buffalo is going to be picking I’ll be focusing on interior OL and WR.  Usually end of the 1st round is a bad area for tackles 

[CEN-CAL17]

Don’t care when…. But it would be awesome to get Cooper Bebee LG out of Kansas State.

 

He’s a stud with potential late round 1 ability….

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

Don’t care when…. But it would be awesome to get Cooper Bebee LG out of Kansas State.

 

He’s a stud with potential late round 1 ability….

 

Didn't get to him today. He is on my list though. 

[SoCal Deek]

CBS now lists us as taking Dawand Jones OT Ohio State. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I mentioned this a couple of days ago. CBS Sports had the Bills taking an OL pick from Florida. Seemed like he was projected as an inside lineman, not a tackle. I’m sure there are posters on here who know something about him. 

 

O'Cyrus Torrence. Don't love the fit. He is a big guy who doesn't move he best and while he looks like a mauler in the run game he is spotty in pass pro. Add to that he looks like a bad fit for a zone blocking scheme and we know that the Bills are determined to run a zone blocking scheme even though they have been trying to execute zone runs for 6 years and consistently have to switch to more of a gap scheme to get the run game going (but they don't like doing that because they think it makes their runs and passes look too different and you lose some effectiveness in the RPO game etc...). But we will see. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

O'Cyrus Torrence. Don't love the fit. He is a big guy who doesn't move he best and while he looks like a mauler in the run game he is spotty in pass pro. Add to that he looks like a bad fit for a zone blocking scheme and we know that the Bills are determined to run a zone blocking scheme even though they have been trying to execute zone runs for 6 years and consistently have to switch to more of a gap scheme to get the run game going (but they don't like doing that because they think it makes their runs and passes look too different and you lose some effectiveness in the RPO game etc...). But we will see. 

Yep….that’s him. But I just checked it again and it appears they changed it to an OT from Ohio State. Go figure 

[bobobonators]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

I dont agree with drafting the next LT. We are in win-now mode and need to hit on as many picks as possible while the starters we do have are still producing. 
 

I may be wrong, and this may be purely anecdotal, but I feel interior linemen selected in the first round have fairly solid success. I feel tackles tend to be a bigger bust. 
 

Im 100% okay drafting a top Center in the first round. Or even a stud Guard. 
 

I agree with you we have to invest in the line. Id be perfectly content if 2 of our first 3 picks were o-line. Something like OL/WR/OL or WR/OL/OL. Whatever the best player available is. Bringing in FA interior linemen may be an option as well but it depends on our cap situation and if we want to prioritize resigning players like Edmunds and/or Oliver. If so, we’ll have to rely on rookies starting at other positions. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by bobobonators

[CNYfan]

A bit random, but I remember the last draft where OL was, on the Community Board at least, a huge priority was after the 2005 season.  I can't remember if it was Oklahoma or Oklahoma State - but that school had some highly rated draftable OL players.

Their Bowl game was against LSU and I, and others, tuned in to scout the Oklahoma OL players as possible Bills draftees.  

As it turned out the LSU DLine totally dominated, and the Oklahoma team could do nothing on offense.   During the April 06 draft the Bills drafted an LSU Defensive Lineman later in the draft.  Wore 95 for the Bills for more than 10 years.  

[RiotAct]

all O-Line and WR.  Or else run Beane out of town.

[CEN-CAL17]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Didn't get to him today. He is on my list though. 

What’s crazy is you watch him in HS and he actually played all over the DL, primarily DT.

 

But you’ll see videos of him playing RB too, yes Running Back lol.

 

Just feel this kid is an athlete and playing in K State they love to run, which is what we need up the middle 

[CNYfan]

2 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

I dont agree with drafting the next LT. We are in win-now mode and need to hit on as many picks as possible while the starters we do have are still producing. 
 

I may be wrong, and this may be purely anecdotal, but I feel interior linemen selected in the first round have fairly solid success. I feel tackles tend to be a bigger bust. 
 

Im 100% okay drafting a top Center in the first round. Or even a stud Guard. 
 

I agree with you we have to invest in the line. Id be perfectly content if 2 of our first 3 picks were o-line. Something like OL/WR/OL or WR/OL/OL. Whatever the best player available is. 

I tend to agree that if you are drafting later in the first round grabbing a Center/Guard is totally a totally acceptable practice.  

[DrDawkinstein]

Never too early to talk draft. The scouts and GM are definitely talking about it, and we aint players.

 

We need another Wood/Levitre draft. Go Interior back to back, just like Beane did with DE. Then snag a couple WRs.

 

The draft should be totally Offense.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

I dont agree with drafting the next LT. We are in win-now mode and need to hit on as many picks as possible while the starters we do have are still producing. 

 

I wouldn't be drafting him to sit though. I'd be drafting him to play and move Dion inside. If you did hit on a stud you instantly make big upgrades in two spots. 

 

Anyway... probably isn't that chance in this draft.

Edited December 23, 2022 by GunnerBill

[SoCal Deek]

It’s impossible for me to believe that there isn’t an interior offensive lineman in the entire NCAA draft class that wouldn’t be an immediate upgrade to our current roster. I couldn’t care less about whether they draft him a few random spots earlier than he’s projected by the ‘experts’. If he’s a Day One starter…I’m good! 

[DrDawkinstein]

19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

It’s impossible for me to believe that there isn’t an interior offensive lineman in the entire NCAA draft class that wouldn’t be an immediate upgrade to our current roster. I couldn’t care less about whether they draft him a few random spots earlier than he’s projected by the ‘experts’. If he’s a Day One starter…I’m good! 

 

Pretty much every IOL taken in the first two rounds of the last two drafts would be starting for us right now. Beane just needs to pull the trigger.

[Simon Says]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay look, I know it is early and this thread will not be for everyone while the Bills are still in the chase for the 1 seed and I totally get that. If that's you, skip right on past. But this is the time of year when I really crank up my work on draft prospects. I am on duty at work today and it has been as dead as a doornail, but I have to be near the laptop all day just in case something drops so I thought I'd make a start on some draft work. 

 

I've done some initial looks at the offensive line class. It's a position I know a lot of Bills fans are looking at and thinking about. Lot of work to still do on these guys but here is my initial take:

 

This is NOT a good offensive tackle group at the top end. It reminds me a bit of 2017, which was a good draft overall but didn't have great offensive tackles. We have had three years of pretty high quality round 1 tackle prospects..... Charles Cross and Ekwonu were my top two guys last year and have both been solid left tackles as rookies (Evan Neal also went top 10 but has had more of a struggle as a rookie), the year before that we had Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw who are all absolute studs and the year before that Tristan Wirfs (the best right tackle in football), Andrew Thomas who after a rough rookie year has really come on to be an excellent left tackle for the Giants and Jedrick Wills who has been steady if unspectacular for Cleveland. Every single one of those guys would be OT1 in this class I think. Trevor Penning, the 4th tackle taken last year, spent all camp fighting then went on IR but he might even be OT1 in this class as well from my initial look. 

 

Some will say "well that doesn't matter, the Bills need inside help more than tackles [arguably correct] and they wouldn't have a shot at a guy at that level anyway because they will be drafting in the last 8 picks of the round." That's true but I still hold the view that one option for really upgrading this line would be to find your next left tackle and let Dion, who has had something of an inconsistent year, slide into guard. I know not everyone agrees with that and I don't think Dion has been concerning enough that you NEED to upgrade him. But if you can find your next left tackle you should always take that shot and with a stud young guy and Dion you could lock down that left side. A second reason it potentially matters is Spencer Brown needs at least to feel some competition. As a rookie Brown was a good run blocker who struggled in pass pro. This year I don't even think he has been a particularly good run blocker. I'm all for letting him compete in camp again next year but that cannot be a handed out job. Equally I am leery about taking a 1st round OL that can't play tackle. 

 

My concern is that the need for left tackles (if I just look at the projected top 10 right now you have Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh who could all consider that if they don't go in other directions) means that guys who should be borderline 1st rounders could get pushed up the board and then that has a knock on effect for the next tier etc. I'm a bit gutted Jordan Morgan from Arizona State has decided to go back to school. He is coming back from an ACL anyway and that might have pushed value down but I like his raw materials. He might, all things considered, have got to day 3 even and he would be an absolute bargain at that spot. 

 

The slightly better news is... I do think there is a decent crop of potential interior linemen that might fit in that late 1st / 2nd round value category. John Michael Schmitz the center from Minnesota is one interesting guy, the Georgia center Van-Pran Granger is another, the guard from USC Andrew Vorhees is a third and I actually like the tackle from Syracuse, Matthew Bergeron, as a potential position switch inside guy at the next level. The issue for the Bills is I don't love the value of interior lineman at the end of the 1st and you have to ask whether any of those guys get as far as the end of round 2. Hard to speculate on that at this early stage. Need to see the way the rest of the draft looks talent wise at premium spots to take a view on that. 

 

So I think my conclusion at this early stage is that if there is an opportunity to upgrade the offensive line in free agency the Bills should certainly take it. The draft isn't necessarily going to set up perfectly for them to attack that spot early. 

I am OK with interior OLine in the top 2 picks; what with Saffold's age and Morse's concussions.  Have to consider the safety situation, Edmunds and Singletary among upcoming free agents,etc.

I'm not convinced Dawkins should to LG to accommodate a LT,it means TWO changes to the line. You are assuming Saffold will be gone?