TNF- Jaguars @ Jets

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 minute ago, Nelius said:

A Super Bowl? C'mon man. Both Moore and Mims wanted off the team just less than 2 months ago. They've got a trio of flashy young players in Gardner, Wilson, and Hall that I think injects a lot more hype than is legitimate. Their defense is not the brick wall that Saleh fanboys want it to be and they're 7-8 for more reasons than their extremely sub-par QB play. Also, it's not like a franchise QB just inevitably drifts toward you. As if they're just guaranteed one in the next couple of years while they have their current roster. Their increasingly long list of QB misses is part of the reason why they're still a mess. Why the confidence that they're going to suddenly get it right any time soon?

 

 If Josh is on that team Moore and Mims would've never wanted out in the 1st place.

 

Apparently you haven't watched Wilson and Allen play because if you did you would know that switch would swing several games in their favor. I'll put it this way, if Wilson was our QB no way in hell are we even 7-8 this year, probably more like 4-10 or 5-9. They lost by 5 & 7 to the Pats, 5 to the Vikings, 8 to the Bills and 3 to the Lions. At the very least those 5 games are all wins with Allen. Right there makes them 12-3 before we even start talking about the other 3 losses. Which makes them Super Bowl contenders which was the point I was making.

 

 As far as a franchise QB floating their way and all that, I have no idea why you are talking about that, I wasn't talking about that, it wasn't my point. You were calling them a mess and saying the wr room isn't good. With Wilson at QB?? Hell no, no wr room would be good with him he's one of, if not, the worst starting QB in the league. That wr room would be good with a top 10 QB under center, Wilson has a ton of potential. I disagree that they're a mess, they just have a realky bad QB and they're tired of it knowing they have a good enough team elsewhere to hang with anyone. In reality they're 1 piece away from contending, admittedly the hardest piece to obtain, but still just one piece.

 

 

 

[Nelius]

1 minute ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 If Josh is on that team Moore and Mims would've never wanted out in the 1st place.

 

Apparently you haven't watched Wilson and Allen play because if you did you would know that switch would swing several games in their favor. I'll put it this way, if Wilson was our QB no way in hell are we even 7-8 this year, probably more like 4-10 or 5-9. They lost by 5 & 7 to the Pats, 5 to the Vikings, 8 to the Bills and 3 to the Lions. At the very least those 5 games are all wins with Allen. Right there makes them 12-3 before we even start talking about the other 3 losses. Which makes them Super Bowl contenders which was the point I was making.

 

 As far as a franchise QB floating their way and all that, I have no idea why you are talking about that, I wasn't talking about that, it wasn't my point. You were calling them a mess and saying the wr room isn't good. With Wilson at QB?? Hell no, no wr room would be good with him he's one of, if not, the worst starting QB in the league. That wr room would be good with a top 10 QB under center, Wilson has a ton of potential. I disagree that they're a mess, they just have a realky bad QB and they're tired of it knowing they have a good enough team elsewhere to hang with anyone. In reality they're 1 piece away from contending, admittedly the hardest piece to obtain, but still just one piece.

 

 

 

The franchise QB failures mean there's potentially a systemic problem with scouting or heck and/or from the top down. You're the one acting like they're just going to conveniently pick up Josh Allen Jr. in the next year or two, with their current roster intact. That's the ultimate hurdle, franchise QBs aren't guaranteed. They always have a really bad QB. But I also disagree with pretty much everything else you've said. 

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 70% would be first on our team at the starting position, just ahead of Diggs. 70% to 55%, a 15 point diffence in catch rate is a big difference.

 

Just to be clear Zay still has him in catches, yards, 1st downs and catch rate. Gabe has 1 td more and a better ypc average. One player is exceeding this year's expectations of them and the other is not. No one had Zay having a chance at 1,000 yards this late in the season.

 

 Gabe has more talent, I'm not questioning that, he just needs his play to equal his talent. With teams using a spy on Josh and an extra man on Diggs, that's 2 less guys to worry about, he should be having a field day. He's the one that needs to make teams pay for doing that.

 

 

 

That wasn’t the initial point you made… you were displaying that Gabe has the majority of his production tied to a handful of games… so does Zay. 
 

And while people had Gabe breaking out this year… I don’t think anyone really discussed numerically what that looked like… or had realistic expectations. The discussion was WR2 numbers… he’s 2nd on the Bills in Targets, Receptions, Yards, TD, First Downs… he’s been our WR2. 
 

If you look at what a WR2 averages in a season it’s around 80/990/6. He’s on pace for 54/982/8… pretty damn close. He’s been a 55% catch guy his 2 years prior… his numbers look like what you would expect from a volume increase in an expanded role. People weren’t ACTUALLY expecting WR2 numbers… they wanted him to put up the same numbers as Diggs. 
 

I don’t disagree on the overall message in the last paragraph… he needs to be more consistent catching the ball… just pointing out the way you displayed stats comparing the two wasn’t really transparent. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by JGMcD2

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

Just now, Nelius said:

The franchise QB failures mean there's potentially a systemic problem with scouting or heck and/or from the top down. You're the one acting like they're just going to conveniently pick up Josh Allen Jr. in the next year or two, with their current roster intact. That's the ultimate hurdle, franchise QBs aren't guaranteed. They always have a really bad QB. But I also disagree with pretty much everything else you've said. 

 

 Again no I'm not acting like that. I literally just said "they're one piece away" followed by "admittedly the hardest piece to obtain". What part of that didn't you understand? As far as a systemic failure for not drafting a franchise QB, maybe, maybe not, it's the hardest position to draft for in pro sports. It took Buffalo ovet 29 ywars to find theirs after Kelly retired. Few, if any had Allen & Jackson being the 2 best QBs in that draft class along with Mayfield, Darnold & Rosen ALL being complete busts.

 

 

[Nelius]

Just now, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Again no I'm not acting like that. I literally just said "they're one piece away" followed by "admittedly the hardest piece to obtain". What part of that didn't you understand? As far as a systemic failure for not drafting a franchise QB, maybe, maybe not, it's the hardest position to draft for in pro sports. It took Buffalo ovet 29 ywars to find theirs after Kelly retired. Few, if any had Allen & Jackson being the 2 best QBs in that draft class along with Mayfield, Darnold & Rosen ALL being complete busts.

 

 

I understand everything man I just completely disagree. I think they're far more than one blue chip QB away. They're 7-8 on the season, 1-4 in their last five, with a lame point differential. They're the Raiders of the AFC East with (gasp) worse WR's and a worse pass rush. It's a very good roster if you're starting a Madden franchise a year ago. It's not delivering in reality.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

I don’t want Bills to play the Jets in the playoffs.  They are a pain in the ass and, I think, a bad matchup for us. I have similar feelings about Miami…

Miami I agree with, but i would LOVE to play the Jets in the post-season. That’s a free win. They literally have no offense. Weird that we lost to Zach Wilson instead of Mike White. 

5 hours ago, dma0034 said:

I don't care for Lawrence. I've thought he's been over-rated since Clemson. I don't think he'll ever get in the conversation for best QB. Just my opinion

Lawrence is improving every year and has 3 straight against legit teams in the Titans, Cowboys, and Jets. His stock is on the rise. Kind of reminds me of Allen’s 2nd half of his rookie year where he finally started putting things together. We’ll agree to disagree, but if I’m a Jags fan then I am pretty excited right now. If they can win their last 2 then they have a decent shot of making the playoffs. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That wasn’t the initial point you made… you were displaying that Gabe has the majority of his production tied to a handful of games… so does Zay. 
 

And while people had Gabe breaking out this year… I don’t think anyone really discussed numerically what that looked like… or had realistic expectations. The discussion was WR2 numbers… he’s 2nd on the Bills in Targets, Receptions, Yards, TD, First Downs… he’s been our WR2. 
 

If you look at what a WR2 averages in a season it’s around 80/990/6. He’s on pace for 54/982/8… pretty damn close. He’s been a 55% catch guy his 2 years prior… his numbers look like what you would expect from a volume increase in an expanded role. People weren’t ACTUALLY expecting WR2 numbers… they wanted him to put up the same numbers as Diggs. 
 

I don’t disagree on the overall message in the last paragraph… he needs to be more consistent catching the ball… just pointing out the way you displayed stats comparing the two wasn’t really transparent. 

 

 Gotcha. Admittedly I looked up Zays stats, but didn't look at his game logs, my bad

 

Imo as far as averages for #2 WR go, he should be better than the average #2WR and here's why I say that.

 

1.) Because he has one of the best QBs in the league. League averages include about 20 teams with average to below average QB play. He has an advantage over most in this regard over almost all #2s.

 

2.) He has on of the best #1 WRs in the league opposite of him that demands double teams. Opening up the field for him.

 

3.) He has a QB that is so lethal teams use a gut to spy him. Another guy he doesn't have to worry about.

 

4.) He plays on a team that moves the ball better than anyone not named the Chiefs and scores alot of points. More plays and scores equal more opportunities for catches and tds.

 

He has a bigger advantage over other #2s than probably any of them in the league. As far as his catch rate for his career, aren't NFL players supposed to improve as their careers progress. What if Josh was still playing anything close to what he did his first couple of seasons?

 

 

[Nelius]

I'm on the Lawrence bandwagon and think he could potentially still be even better than Herbert. Herbert's sort of putting the right numbers together but he's got the best orchestrated dump off valve with Ekeler in the league and he's not making the impact that Lawrence is. I feel like Lawrence's size and physicality is still underrated, maybe the overall Jaguars goofiness and long hair throw people off when it comes to his physical traits. 

 

He's probably really the closest thing to a Josh Allen maniac counterpart if he can put it all together. Like Venom vs. Carnage. The excitement is warranted. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

15 minutes ago, Nelius said:

I understand everything man I just completely disagree. I think they're far more than one blue chip QB away. They're 7-8 on the season, 1-4 in their last five, with a lame point differential. They're the Raiders of the AFC East with (gasp) worse WR's and a worse pass rush. It's a very good roster if you're starting a Madden franchise a year ago. It's not delivering in reality.

 

 So you don't think they win those 5 one score games by switching out Wilson for Josh? Come on man, you really can't believe that can you? If so, I don't know what to tell you. My guess is far more people would agree they would win those games than disagree. Josh's difference over Wilson in those games has got to be at least 8 points.

 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Zach Wilson should be in the Ryan Leaf category of busts when it’s all said & done. 

[Malazan]

2 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

They are done. 11 million is worth it to the Jets. Take your 7th and move on

 

I probably should have mentioned it's actually more.. cut him post june 1st it's 15m in 2023 and 11m in 2024. I don't see cutting him as viable. 

 

Trading him post June 1st if they can manage to sucker someone is 5.7m each year. 

[Da webster guy]

When Coach Saleh said all cocky "we will see the bills again" we all laughed and said "uh yeah, first of all you probably aren't making the playoffs and if you come back to Buffalo in the playoffs we'll be favored by 14 so we'd love the chance to beat you again"

 

Maybe he just meant we'll play them next year after his 7-10 season is over.

[Process]

23 minutes ago, Nelius said:

I'm on the Lawrence bandwagon and think he could potentially still be even better than Herbert. Herbert's sort of putting the right numbers together but he's got the best orchestrated dump off valve with Ekeler in the league and he's not making the impact that Lawrence is. I feel like Lawrence's size and physicality is still underrated, maybe the overall Jaguars goofiness and long hair throw people off when it comes to his physical traits. 

 

He's probably really the closest thing to a Josh Allen maniac counterpart if he can put it all together. Like Venom vs. Carnage. The excitement is warranted. 

Not gonna lie, it's hard to take him seriously as an elite QB with that hairdo 

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That wasn’t the initial point you made… you were displaying that Gabe has the majority of his production tied to a handful of games… so does Zay. 
 

And while people had Gabe breaking out this year… I don’t think anyone really discussed numerically what that looked like… or had realistic expectations. The discussion was WR2 numbers… he’s 2nd on the Bills in Targets, Receptions, Yards, TD, First Downs… he’s been our WR2. 
 

If you look at what a WR2 averages in a season it’s around 80/990/6. He’s on pace for 54/982/8… pretty damn close. He’s been a 55% catch guy his 2 years prior… his numbers look like what you would expect from a volume increase in an expanded role. People weren’t ACTUALLY expecting WR2 numbers… they wanted him to put up the same numbers as Diggs. 
 

I don’t disagree on the overall message in the last paragraph… he needs to be more consistent catching the ball… just pointing out the way you displayed stats comparing the two wasn’t really transparent. 

 

Yea I think people presume Gabe has regressed. He hasn't. He is having a career year in every category except catch % which is down 1% on last year but as you say has been broadly consistent his three years in the league. What I think people were hoping for was more of a jump from Gabe as the full time #2 into the sort of Tee Higgins type #1B. That hasn't happened. But he is still a serviceable #2. 

 

He has more yards and more touchdowns than Adam Thielen and Mike Williams just for two examples. Think people would be pretty happy with those guys as their #2 options. The Eagles, Dolphins and Bengals are probably the exceptions at the moment because in Tee, Waddle and Devonta Smith they have highly drafted guys (basically all 1st rounders... Tee was #33) on rookie deals as their #1Bs who were all the #1 on their team their rookie year before another guy arrived. 

 

It is legit to say I am slightly disappointed in Gabe myself this year I was hoping for more of a step too and I think now I'd rather let someone else pay him after next year because I think serviceable #2 probably is his ceiling. But we still found a serviceable #2 NFL receiver in round 4 of the draft. That's a good outcome. 

[Special K]

15 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

When Coach Saleh said all cocky "we will see the bills again" 

 

Maybe he just meant we'll play them next year after his 7-10 season is over.

 

When that idiot made that comment, that’s the first thing I said......yeah...next season, clown 🤡

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Nelius said:

I'm on the Lawrence bandwagon and think he could potentially still be even better than Herbert. Herbert's sort of putting the right numbers together but he's got the best orchestrated dump off valve with Ekeler in the league and he's not making the impact that Lawrence is. I feel like Lawrence's size and physicality is still underrated, maybe the overall Jaguars goofiness and long hair throw people off when it comes to his physical traits. 

 

He's probably really the closest thing to a Josh Allen maniac counterpart if he can put it all together. Like Venom vs. Carnage. The excitement is warranted. 

 

Leads the league in most major categories since week 9. His 2nd season has had a similar arc to Allen's only Josh had a defense to help him win more of those close games early in the year. 

 

I agree Lawrence could be in the conversation with Josh, Pat, Joe and Justin by this time next year. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Gabe has more talent, I'm not questioning that, he just needs his play to equal his talent. With teams using a spy on Josh and an extra man on Diggs, that's 2 less guys to worry about, he should be having a field day. He's the one that needs to make teams pay for doing that.

 

 

Talent has never been Zay's issue. I know it isn't everything but the kid was a 9.71 RAS. It is why he was a 2nd round pick. Whatever was going on in his life at the time he was in Buffalo hurt his football IMO. I am super happy for him that he managed to get it figured out and is having some success. Few players wash out so quickly as 2nd round picks in a place and then rebound like this elsewhere. Real credit to him. 

[Bubba Gump]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Talent has never been Zay's issue. I know it isn't everything but the kid was a 9.71 RAS. It is why he was a 2nd round pick. Whatever was going on in his life at the time he was in Buffalo hurt his football IMO. I am super happy for him that he managed to get it figured out and is having some success. Few players wash out so quickly as 2nd round picks in a place and then rebound like this elsewhere. Real credit to him. 

 

I agree. He was definitely in a bad place for quite awhile. Nice to see him get back to having a respectable, lucrative career. Hope he keeps it up. 

[LeGOATski]

46 minutes ago, Process said:

Not gonna lie, it's hard to take him seriously as an elite QB with that hairdo 

I say the same thing when Josh tries to grow facial hair.

[Billsfan1972]

2 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

When Coach Saleh said all cocky "we will see the bills again" we all laughed and said "uh yeah, first of all you probably aren't making the playoffs and if you come back to Buffalo in the playoffs we'll be favored by 14 so we'd love the chance to beat you again"

 

Maybe he just meant we'll play them next year after his 7-10 season is over.

And again Wilson beat the Bills with time consuming drives and clutch 3rd/4th down plays.  

 

And the Jets vaunted defense was in bad conditions exposed by Jax.  

Edited December 23, 2022 by Billsfan1972