Opponents' 3rd and long scare anyone else?

[Scott7975]

Yes, it’s one of the few things I worry about with our team. They do so well on first and second down only to blow it on 3rd and long with what seems to me at a high rate.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

12 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Yes, it’s one of the few things I worry about with our team. They do so well on first and second down only to blow it on 3rd and long with what seems to me at a high rate.

 

 The defense has taken the brunt of the injuries this year and for the most part they have been key players. Hyde, Poyer, White, Elam, Jackson, Benford, Milano, Edmunds, Groot, Phillips, Miller and now Boogie(That's just off the top of my head) have all missed some to alot of time this year.

 

  The secondary has been hurt the most, missing 2-3 guys in almost all the games and sometimes missing 4 of 5 starters,  including all 3 former All-Pros. It's been a constant revolving door this year. My hope is there's no more injuries back there and coach decides quickly and picks Elam to start opposite of Tre. That will give him time to settle in and give the secondary 3 games to try and gel with one another.🤞

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[quinnearlysghost88]

17 hours ago, The Red King said:

It may be perspective, I didn't check the numbers, but I worry about 3rd and long because our D seems bad at it.  I'm actually more confident with 3rd and short.  We just seem to keep getting torched on 3rd and 10, 3rd and 12, etc.  3rd and long and you can usually pressure the offense, but it seems we do the opposite, giving the QB time to kill us.

 

Again, maybe I'm wrong, but for all our strengths we just don't look good on third and long plays.

Gone are the days of draw plays on 3rd and long. 

[frostbitmic]

When our defense gets teams in 3rd and long, the other team has us right where they want us.

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And we know how they did vs. the #1 offense.

 

I try and be levelheaded and fair, but regardless there are concerns.  

 

As good as the Bills opposition has been (record wise), the last 5 games though wins we've seen issues, which is what this board is for.  

 

Teams will convert 3rd downs, but the #4 DVOA Defense is not as successful as that # shows on third or fourth downs.

 

And while 11-3, been a long time since a thorough beatdown/convincing victory.

 

This is the NFL and the other teams are also good.  You can't expect to have a blow out every day.  In fact, during the last 5 games (other than the game against Miami), it is our offense that has been pedestrian. 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And we know how they did vs. the #1 offense.

 

I try and be levelheaded and fair, but regardless there are concerns.  

 

As good as the Bills opposition has been (record wise), the last 5 games though wins we've seen issues, which is what this board is for.  

 

Teams will convert 3rd downs, but the #4 DVOA Defense is not as successful as that # shows on third or fourth downs.

 

And while 11-3, been a long time since a thorough beatdown/convincing victory.

 

 

 

"We know how they did against the #1 offense," you say? Yeah, they did very very well against that #1 offense. Held 'em to 20 points, which only one other team was able to do. 

 

Yeah, we've seen issues. You always will. Perfection doesn't exist. Teams go up and down, all of them. But for the last five games you're worrying about, they've allowed less than 20 PPG average. Against a damn good group of offenses, as you yourself pointed out.

 

Particularly with our clusters of defensive injuries, and against a vicious schedule, they've performed very very well. 

 

And having a great overall defensive DVOA, defensive scoring record, the 11-3 record, etc., are all far more important than a somewhat cherry-picked stat. This doesn't rise to the level of a worry for me.

 

As for not having had a thorough beatdown in a while, I just smile at how the target changes. For two years people have been complaining that we don't do well in one-score games and how most of our wins are only just beatdowns. Now we're turning that around and the new complaint is that we don't put up enough beatdowns. The target is always moving for people looking for a reason to worry.

 

11-3. That's the bottom line. 

 

 

[jethro_tull]

19 hours ago, The Red King said:

It may be perspective, I didn't check the numbers, but I worry about 3rd and long because our D seems bad at it.  I'm actually more confident with 3rd and short.  We just seem to keep getting torched on 3rd and 10, 3rd and 12, etc.  3rd and long and you can usually pressure the offense, but it seems we do the opposite, giving the QB time to kill us.

 

Again, maybe I'm wrong, but for all our strengths we just don't look good on third and long plays.

Always an anxious situation for me- worried about a conversion that stabs like a dagger, or worse yet a PI penalty.  Possibly related to the exposure to many years of Bills football prior to the McDermott era.  

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

"We know how they did against the #1 offense," you say? Yeah, they did very very well against that #1 offense. Held 'em to 20 points, which only one other team was able to do. 

 

Yeah, we've seen issues. You always will. Perfection doesn't exist. Teams go up and down, all of them. But for the last five games you're worrying about, they've allowed less than 20 PPG average. Against a damn good group of offenses, as you yourself pointed out.

 

Particularly with our clusters of defensive injuries, and against a vicious schedule, they've performed very very well. 

 

And having a great overall defensive DVOA, defensive scoring record, the 11-3 record, etc., are all far more important than a somewhat cherry-picked stat. This doesn't rise to the level of a worry for me.

 

As for not having had a thorough beatdown in a while, I just smile at how the target changes. For two years people have been complaining that we don't do well in one-score games and how most of our wins are only just beatdowns. Now we're turning that around and the new complaint is that we don't put up enough beatdowns. The target is always moving for people looking for a reason to worry.

 

11-3. That's the bottom line. 

 

 

I was talking about SF getting torched by KC......Sheez!!!!   

 

Boy you miss the point.....  Five wins have been against Cleve, NYJ, Mia, Det & NE.  Only Det and Mia are decent offences and the defence didn't look particularly good against either.  NE, NYJ and Cleveland all are bad Offences.   

 

Great teams yes have some games that are laughers and the Bills haven't had a dominating performance since Pitt.  All other SB contenders have.

 

What's funny is that Cincy looked terrible against TB, but people will see they scored 34 straight and was a lopsided victory by the end.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[The Red King]

All this is about is 3rd and long.  And don't give me 11-3.  This team isn't flawless.  11-3 doesn't mean nothing could be wrong.  Look at Pitt two years ago.  Had even a better record, then got curb-stomped in the Wild Card game.

 

I think I raised a valid concern.  The longer the D is out there, the less our O is.  3rd and long should be when we get off the field, but we're blowing a disproportionate number of them.

 

Honestly, I'm more comfortable with 3rd and 5 then I am 3rd and 10.

[Billsfan1972]

4 hours ago, The Red King said:

All this is about is 3rd and long.  And don't give me 11-3.  This team isn't flawless.  11-3 doesn't mean nothing could be wrong.  Look at Pitt two years ago.  Had even a better record, then got curb-stomped in the Wild Card game.

 

I think I raised a valid concern.  The longer the D is out there, the less our O is.  3rd and long should be when we get off the field, but we're blowing a disproportionate number of them.

 

Honestly, I'm more comfortable with 3rd and 5 then I am 3rd and 10.

And that's the problem here.  Debate and conversation often becomes the stupid 11-3 comments as they think they are intellectually superior by saying that.  We all know the Bills  are 11-3.

 

Very simply the Minny and NYJ games were lost because they converted on 3rd and long or on 4th down and this was Zach Wilson and sorry the fraud that is Kirk Cousins.

 

The Bills have faced two elite qbs this year in Mahomes and Jackson and Miami and Detroit scored plenty on them (remember Tua was concussed vs. Buffalo and the Bills had the ball 40 minutes).

 

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[Bills!Win!]

When I hear the train horn it means I’m one play closer (good or bad) to seeing Superman get the ball back. So, no I’m not scared. Last I checked we are also 8 points away from being undefeated or close to it. So we always have a chance 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Bills!Win!

[Billsfan1972]

44 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

When I hear the train horn it means I’m one play closer (good or bad) to seeing Superman get the ball back. So, no I’m not scared. Last I checked we are also 8 points away from being undefeated or close to it. So we always have a chance 

And what does that have to do with the thread?

 

Another Post about 11-3 a d how close the Bills are to 14-0.

 

We know....  we know....

Edited December 23, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I was talking about SF getting torched by KC......Sheez!!!!   

 

Boy you miss the point.....  Five wins have been against Cleve, NYJ, Mia, Det & NE.  Only Det and Mia are decent offences and the defence didn't look particularly good against either.  NE, NYJ and Cleveland all are bad Offences.   

 

Great teams yes have some games that are laughers and the Bills haven't had a dominating performance since Pitt.  All other SB contenders have.

 

What's funny is that Cincy looked terrible against TB, but people will see they scored 34 straight and was a lopsided victory by the end.

Which is more of an indicator of how a team is playing?

 

The way KC beat SF or how KC has played since?

 

KC struggled with the Rams without Kupp, Stafford and Donald.  Bad offense.

 

KC struggled against TN and Malik Willis.

Bad offense.

 

KC struggled against the Broncos.  Bad offense.

 

KC struggles with the Texans.  Bad offense and defense.

 

KC lost to the Bengals.

 

It was 7 weeks ago the Chiefs dominated the 49ers.  They haven’t dominated anyone since and have struggled against bad teams.

 

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Which is more of an indicator of how a team is playing?

 

The way KC beat SF or how KC has played since?

 

KC struggled with the Rams without Kupp, Stafford and Donald.  Bad offense.

 

KC struggled against TN and Malik Willis.

Bad offense.

 

KC struggled against the Broncos.  Bad offense.

 

KC struggles with the Texans.  Bad offense and defense.

 

KC lost to the Bengals.

 

It was 7 weeks ago the Chiefs dominated the 49ers.  They haven’t dominated anyone since and have struggled against bad teams.

 

And again when was the last time the Bills dominated?  They've won, (please remind us that they are 11-3 always witty and smart).

 

The New England game was okay, but NE is a dysfunctional offense and the Bills sputtered there at times too.

 

Great teams have dominating wins

 

The Bills did weeks 1-2 & against Pitt, that's all.

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And again when was the last time the Bills dominated?  They've won, (please remind us that they are 11-3 always witty and smart).

 

The New England game was okay, but NE is a dysfunctional offense and the Bills sputtered there at times too.

 

Great teams have dominating wins

 

The Bills did weeks 1-2 & against Pitt, that's all.

 

Games won by 3 scores.  Its been awhile for the Chiefs too.   San Fran was awhile too.  
 

Bills - 3

Chiefs - 2

Are the Chiefs playing better than the Bills in the last 5-6 games?  With everything I mentioned above how the Chiefs are needing last second wins against multiple bad teams…are they playing better than the Bills in the last 5-6 games ?  Its a yes or no question.

 

[The Red King]

So, from what I'm hearing from some, it doesn't matter how good or bad our 3rd and long play is, there is nothing to be concerned about because we're 11-3.    All 3 or less loss teams have no flaws whatsoever to be worried about?  There should be no concerns whatsoever for the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles or Vikings.  Not for any facet of their gameplay at all, because hey, less then four losses.  Four flawless teams, should make for amazing Championship Games and Super Bowl then.

[HappyDays]

18 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

NE, NYJ and Cleveland all are bad Offences.   

 

When the Bills played the Browns, the Browns had the #6 rated offense by DVOA. Sometimes when you're typing out these long posts you should consider stopping and fact checking the things that you say. It has earned you a reputation on here of being an anti-homer, one that stretches the truth or tells outright lies to minimize the accomplishments of the team.

[Billsfan1972]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

When the Bills played the Browns, the Browns had the #6 rated offense by DVOA. Sometimes when you're typing out these long posts you should consider stopping and fact checking the things that you say. It has earned you a reputation on here of being an anti-homer, one that stretches the truth or tells outright lies to minimize the accomplishments of the team.

Wow rhey beat Jacobi Brissett.   Talk about a statement win 🤣

[HappyDays]

30 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wow rhey beat Jacobi Brissett.   Talk about a statement win 🤣

 

No. They beat the Browns offense which was the 6th rated offense by DVOA and we held them below their average production for the year. You have a real problem acknowledging facts that counter what you say. In the right situation I bet you would use DVOA to make your point for you, but because in this case it doesn't fit your agenda you have to misdirect. Not gonna work on me.

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

On 12/23/2022 at 12:56 PM, Billsfan1972 said:

And again when was the last time the Bills dominated?  They've won, (please remind us that they are 11-3 always witty and smart).

 

The New England game was okay, but NE is a dysfunctional offense and the Bills sputtered there at times too.

 

Great teams have dominating wins

 

The Bills did weeks 1-2 & against Pitt, that's all.

 

 

14 point wins on the road are dominating. This is the problem you disqualify things based on your arbitrary criteria of "whether I think it counts". Winning a division game on the road by 14 in the NFL is a dominating performance. 

 

Other than that, sure we have played some close games recently. 

 

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No. They beat the Browns offense which was the 6th rated offense by DVOA and we held them below their average production for the year. You have a real problem acknowledging facts that counter what you say. In the right situation I bet you would use DVOA to make your point for you, but because in this case it doesn't fit your agenda you have to misdirect. Not gonna work on me.

 

 

That is exactly what he does. If a fact counters his view then he will caveat at it. If a fact supports his view and someone else seeks to caveat it he accuses them of making excuses and ignoring facts. 

 

And then he complains that people cannot accept his views whenever he is critical. You have known me long enough on this board @HappyDays - have I ever had a problem being critical about the Bills when I have thought it was warranted? 

 

I just prefer a balanced discussion than what you get from @Billsfan1972.